A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.
While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.
The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.
In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.
UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).
Turnbull presser coming.
Good time for a coffee break before QT
This has to be the most incompetent, out-of-touch and ideologically-driven Government since the 1920’s – quite possibly the worst Government in the history of the Federation. They mess up every single thing they go near.
Their actions will trash consumer and business confidence and drive away investment and are likely in themselves to provoke a downturn in the economy. Rising unemployment, rising budget deficits, collapsing profits and mounting economic hardship lie ahead under this most disastrous Government. The Senate should seriously consider withholding Supply and sending the House to an election before it’s too late.
302
I agree. Block supply. DD ASAP.
[The Court has made clear that state/territory pseudo-marriage laws are not a path to marriage equality, but has made the correct path – federal legislation – easier.]
Yep sure has. No ambiguity now, the High Court was smart enough to give a ruling on the next question it was likely to be asked.
Now all is needed is a conscience vote allowed for all parties.
Turnbull is a fraud like the rest of his colleagues. Grrr………
[ Given that the SMH seems to be favoured media outlet to quote here these days I thought the following article deserved to be posted particularly seeing how much attention misogyny received in the last three years. ]
Look! A unicorn!
Tony must be having another really, really bad day. What’s today’s fiasco? NBN?
Only 12 more fiascos till Christmas!
NO EXCUSES
‘Turnbull is a fraud like the rest of his colleagues.’
Yes, but I’ve no idea why anyone thought otherwise.
Maybe because he’s such a consummate bullshit artist.
Turnbull indeed full of excuses. It is a broken promise. So much for no excuses
Turnbull is obviously going to crap on for a while and then say he has to duck off to QT
Journos are asking about no excuses
“@NickRossTech: Turnbull is currently mentioning Labor as a justification for just about everything atm.”
[I agree. Block supply. DD ASAP.]
Labor is pledged never to block supply, and rightly so. I’m not sure if the Greens are.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/12/abbott-fastest-ever-to-lose-poll-lead.html
Abbott Fastest Ever To Lose Poll Lead
Advance Summary:
1. Following the recent Newspoll, the new Abbott Government has lost the two-party preferred polling lead.
2. This does not necessarily mean the government would lose an election if one was held now.
3. The Abbott Government has lost the 2PP polling lead much faster than any other new government elected from Opposition in federal polling history.
4. Tony Abbott has also recorded negative personal ratings much faster than any new PM elected from Opposition in federal polling history.
5. While polling taken at this stage has very little if any predictive value, governments that have lost the lead very early in their terms have a historically greater risk of defeat at the next election.
6. Bill Shorten’s polling as Opposition Leader appears good, but is nothing unusual by the standards of other Opposition Leaders at the same stages of their careers.
7. Furthermore the strength or otherwise of an Opposition Leader’s personal polling after only two months in the job has no relationship with their success at later elections.
Be fair to Turnbull, he was only out by $29 billion, Joe is out by $45 billion. 😆
On the first day of Christmas, Tony Abbott gave to me —
The demise of the car industry
On the second day of Christmas, Tony Abbott gave to me —
Two cuts to low paid workers
And the demise of the car industry…
And now Kellogg closes its NSW central coast plant at Charmhaven with the loss of 100 jobs. They will import cereals and confectionery from Thailand,
Talc being a tad optimistic there I think, 3rd or 4th term for Abbott. 😀
That was 3rd or 4th term for Wyatt Roy.
We are seeing the beginning of the Abbott initiated Depression/recession that we never needed to have.
May the Abbott (mis)Government rot.
“@StephenJonesMP: I just made a statement in the House calling on he Coalition to allow a conscience vote for a Federal Bill to permit Marriage Equality”
“@sortius: Mal now deflecting his conflict of interest by blaming the ALP #auspol #NBN”
P1,
The Abbott Government is wring ts own seasonal carol, “The 12 Fiascos by Christmas”.
Tony Abbott is setting his government up for the mother of all landslide defeats.
will they please put turnbull back in charge of rainmaking machines and give someone with at least half a clue the job of comms minister
“@gd253: @delimiterau @NickRossTech So we now have to pay Rupert for a connection via his Foxtel cable is that right?”
Given the direction Turnbull’s NBN is heading, the new growth industries will be manufacture of tin cans and string.
Roger Miller
Oh, misheard thanks for the correction.
Diogs,
The AFL get serious!
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-12-12/bombers-money-on-hold
Victoria
Turnbull is increasingly likely to come out of this with the most damaged reputation of all on that side of politics, the furthest and hardest fall. (Which, no doubt, is exactly what Abbott and the hard radical right want.)
Turnbull is one of the greatest disappointments to me in politics. Maybe I misread him from the start, but I – like many others – thought the way he conducted himself in the republic referendum debates augured well for the conservatives and Australian politics.
But alas not it would seem from subsequent events, including his own choices (rainmaker man, Gretch, Utegate, trashing the NBN,…).
The destruction of the NBN in particular is completely unforgivable.
Sorry Mal, but you happily smeared yourself with moronic political opportunism and plutocratic brown lipstick, and as you are no doubt realising you will never be able to clean it off.
@citzen/327
I thought we already had that?
Here we go. Its QT how much will the Speaker be challenged today?
Question time cancelled.
The High Court judgement is actually quite radical. Read ss32-38. Marriage now means whatever we choose it to mean!
Corey Bernardi won’t like this at all.
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCA/2013/55.html
Mandela has not had his funeral yet you fool Abbott.
[302
briefly
The Senate should seriously consider withholding Supply and sending the House to an election before it’s too late.]
That tactic has to now be on the table, given how dangerous and destructive this government is shaping up to be.
Just me
Concur with your sentiments re Turnbull. He has no morals or principles
Sounds like Abbott cancelled Question Time to avoid answering NBN related questions?
I refuse to listen to Abbott orating about Mandela.
Abetz has just moved a suspension and begun a rant in the Senate.
Bloody hell this speech from Abbott is awful – it is forced and does not match his persona at all. Quoting Obama???
[Victoria
Concur with your sentiments re Turnbull. He has no morals or principles]
I think it is even worse than that. I think he had some, but then chose to throw them away.
[ The Senate should seriously consider withholding Supply and sending the House to an election before it’s too late.
That tactic has to now be on the table, given how dangerous and destructive this government is shaping up to be.]
Labor is pledged never to block supply, and rightly so.
good question straight up – crap answer from abbott, unsurprisingly
[Labor is pledged never to block supply, and rightly so.]
No matter the cost?
Seems Abbott had zero meetings with Holden. Just tell the truth Abbott.
Psephos
[Labor is pledged never to block supply, and rightly so. ]
That shouldn’t be “never” because they can’t know what extraordinary circumstances might occur. But we are nowhere near such drastic action at the moment.
@Feeney4Batman: Bronwyn Bishop managed to have the Parliament spiral into chaos thru her partisan commentary from the Speakers chair http://t.co/zf2pinppgB
Abbott is repeating his prepared Holden speech. All talk no ability.
[But we are nowhere near such drastic action at the moment.]
True, but heading rapidly in that direction.