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| Teal and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
The western Brisbane seat of Ryan is dominated geographically by the Taylor Range to the city’s north-west, but nearly all of its voters are drawn from the suburban plains to the east and south. The suburbs of Ferny Grove and Enoggera at the northern end are Labor-leaning, but in the south are wealthier Indooroopilly and Kenmore on the northern shore of the Brisbane River, with conservative-leaning The Gap and Bardon lying in between. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, from territory which had been passed around over time between Lilley, Brisbane and Moreton. It has covered much the same area since, although between 1998 and 2010 the northern end was exchanged for Middle Park and Jindalee south of the river.
Ryan has been won easily won by the Liberals, and more lately the Liberal National Party, at every general election since its creation. Prior to 2001 it had had only two members, firstly Nigel Drury until 1975, and then Howard government Defence Minister John Moore. Then came the only interruption to the seat’s history of conservative dominance after Moore quit parliament when he lost his portfolio in a reshuffle. At a troubled time for the Howard government, the ensuing by-election in February 2001 was won by Labor with a 9.8% swing, giving them what proved an ill-founded confidence boost concerning their prospects at the election due later in the year. Labor member Leonie Short went on to defeat the following November at the hands of Liberals candidate Michael Johnson, a 34-year-old Hong Kong-born and Cambridge-educated barrister of part Chinese extraction. Johnson won a local preselection plebiscite amid loud complaints of branch stacking, and after a defeated candidate’s successful Supreme Court action against a move by the state executive to install its own candidate.
The statewide swing to Labor in 2007 cut the margin from 10.4% to 3.8%, from which it was further reduced to 1.1% by the redistribution that took effect at the 2010 election. Meanwhile opposition to Johnson was mounting within his own party, with reports emerging of an internal investigation into his expenditure records and fundraising activities. In May 2010 he was expelled from the party for attempting to broker an export deal between the Queensland Coal Corporation and a Chinese conglomerate during parliamentary sittings and with the use of his parliamentary email address. A preselection was then won comfortably by Jane Prentice, who served the Indooroopilly-based ward of Walter Taylor on Brisbane City Council. Johnson ran as an independent in 2010 but secured only 8.5% of the vote, with Prentice securing the seat for the LNP with a 6.0% swing. She picked up a further 1.4% swing in 2013, boosting her margin to 8.5%.
Ducky
Have you heard that revenue comes from higher income and profits.
Not everything involved selling something or cutting something.
This place can somethings be very simple.
[Joel Fitzgibbon @fitzhunter 16m
Despite what Joe says watch for evidence of a deal with the Greens re the debt ceiling. Could be interesting!]
Hmmm maybe something is crook in tallarook
Why is Morrison called “Scoot”? (No doubt some pop-culture reference that has escaped me.)
[@smh: “It’s Peta Credlin who is the problem, she’s a control freak.” Rumblings of discontent in Coalition ranks growing. http://t.co/0y4UvGbC79 ]
Jeez they’re a bit slow the press gallery, aren’t they? This isn’t actually new information as they’d know if they’d been paying any attention during the last 4 years.
Just Me
[She probably doesn’t have much choice, given how tightly she has to muzzle her boss for his own good.]
Agree. Imagine if she let Tony go “Free Range” ?
Just Me
If it is B.S why does it contribute to high staff turnover in the social welfare sector.
Victoria I too have never forgiven the greens for scuttling the emissions scheme to remain holier than thou. The fall of labour is their doing in my view. They could have been part of the solution, a stating point not up to their high standard, but a start…now we have direct action which is no action at all. Now the debt ceiling stuff…how can they believe it will be honoured? Today they are grown ups according to the torys when just yesterday they were part of the dysfunctional and wacko destroyers of good governance. Even the right wingers at my workplace are silent about all things coming from the coalition. Greens you will bent over the table and have it shoved up your rear ends. Live and learn.
@MB/800
The problem with that, you have parties like Coalition Party ignoring those processes and procedures.
mexicanbeemer –
I think I should go back to ignoring your posts.
The point the PC was making was that the existing systems for supporting disabled people were not working well for the disabled and their families/carers. This results in loss of economic activity (apart from all the equity and human rights issues).
That’s a very different thing to public service waste.
You can’t “fix” what the PC identified by simply finding ‘waste’ and cutting ‘wasted funding’.
Further, the overall economic benefit identified for the NDIS is not about directly saving the government money – it’s about improving the overall efficiency of the economy resulting in an overall “win”. Again, that’s not about “cutting waste”. It’s about making the system better.
Zoidlord
Or make it worst by hiring senior managers who don’t have experience in such an area therefore create additional inefficiencies.
[299
Geoff
Posted Wednesday, December 4, 2013 at 2:46 pm | PERMALINK
So far this goverment has done nothing, int terms of producing Productivity & jobs.
How can they when the greens and the labor lachies block everything in the senate? At what point can we start calling Shorten “Dr no shorten?”]
I wish people would say who they’re quoting in posts like this. It’s very confusing.
Jachol
If a policy framework works efficiently why does that equal cutting.
You seem unable to tell the difference between running something to its intention and actually achieving its intention with just cutting.
The PC report in to the NDIS showed that many services do not function as they were intended.
Everybody connected to the disability sector knows the system needs change.
lyndajcla
[Victoria I too have never forgiven the greens for scuttling the emissions scheme to remain holier than thou. The fall of labour is their doing in my view]
Damned right. Will never forgive them. Work sent me to several Carbon Conferences back then. The difference between the one they rejected and the one they accepted is feck all. Their piety directly led to Tones . Feck ’em.
The NDIS will be screwed like Gonski. My mental health sector is in no man’s land presently. What funding will be honored and will the the fundamental values of the scheme be carried out? Not under this pack of shunts.
lyndajcla
Lets forget about the budget for a moment, do you think the Mental Health sector is efficient or could its polices and procedures be improved and better targeted?
Who would have thought the adults in the government turned out to be the Greens?
Refer to Kathy and Kim. They would do better than this pack of shunts.
The problem with legislators is that they punish everyone, broad approach, with this idea, they need to look at what’s happening in UK and NZ.
But my local MP doesn’t want a bar of it.
From my local MP POV, they punish the Disabled and low income earners and continue to blame Labor (both state and federal level).
Even if the reports date back to Howard & Co era.
Psephos,
I think this is the source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scooter_(Muppet)
Pyne does remind me of the two in the shop.
[Emma Alberici
I’ll be interviewing East Timor’s Ambassador to Australia Abel Guterres @Lateline Leading the conversation on twitter will be @ellenmfanning]
mexicanbeemer –
The system, with regards to the NDIS, obviously needs change, and hopefully the NDIS survives this government and helps a lot of people, and maybe has an economic benefit for Australia as well.
Given what you said:
The NDIS reforms are not going to help the government work towards a surplus anytime soon. Perhaps, if enough additional economic activity is generated, in a decade or two, there might be some additional taxation attributable to the introduction of the NDIS.
But the NDIS, and the massive reform involved in getting it up, is not about fixing the budget, and implementing it is not about eliminating “much waste” that would help reach a surplus.
If you were talking randomly about surpluses in your first paragraph, and then just threw in a general promotion of significant structural reform as a non sequitur in your second paragraph, that’s fine but that’s one hell of a confused blog post if that’s what you were doing.
Richo talking to Jones and Hockey on Sky. Their lips are moving.
[ The difference between the one they rejected and the one they accepted is feck all. ]
Is this true? I’ve lost track of what the CPRS contained, other than everything we have now except for a fixed price period.
When the Greens first voted against carbon pricing the excuse given was that what was on offer wasn’t strong enough.
The second time they voted against carbon pricing the excuse was that what was on offer was weaker even still.
I’m with others in condemning the Greens for rejecting carbon pricing and then trying to claim the moral high ground because of it.
I’ve just got back from a fire which took a long time to completely extinguish and see that the Good Ship Blowfly has turned off its transponder. I bet it doesn’t come on again untile the next presser by Morriscum and his toy soldier is finished.
Psephos
Scoot is what dogs infested with gut worms do – drag their arses along the ground (to scratch the itch). Even if this isn’t the origin, the mental picture delights. 👿
[Emma Alberici
I’ll be interviewing East Timor’s Ambassador to Australia Abel Guterres @Lateline Leading the conversation on twitter will be @ellenmfanning]
Alberici’s getting the good interviews of late.
Jachol
They are separate.
A surplus will only occur when economic activity has recovered enough for it too happen.
The NDIS has the potential to improve the efficiency of service delivery to the Disability sector.
fess,
The Greens, if they can’t have the full loaf, won’t settle for half a loaf, no matter how tasty.
I think Meg Milne just went feral today.
The Greens. Anything for a fleeting moment of relevance.
the problem is some people equal improving or seeking to improve how a service is delivered with a budget cut.
Government should be focused on delivering services that achieve their objectives.
In some cases this will cost the government more.
confessions
The original scheme also had a fixed price period. The reason given was that it gave business time and stability to put in place their systems. Which was fair enough and was what business wanted.
Why did Labor invent a debt ceiling and then blow through it like a rocket with their Labor debt?
Sean
The GFC
Google will tell you all about it.
Mexican beer…our clients are not the same ad those with with physical or intellectual disabilities. Because mental illness is not static I might need to spend 4 hours a week with someone or none depending on where a person is in his or her recovery. There may be crises or relapses that need to be responded to very flexible. I do believe mental health was tacked on to the NDIS and may not be a great fit for us. Our funding is uncertain…our group program has been cut in anticipation and our clients have suffered too much stigma and uncertainty for too long.
@Sean/833
Abbott is PM remember, more excuses from you 🙂
[ I bet it doesn’t come on again untile the next presser by Morriscum and his toy soldier is finished.]
Yep it will unload the 12 boatloads of passengers it is picking up right now after 3 star and Morrison have pissed off for Christmas.
poroti:
Oh, so the differences between the CPRS and what we have now are even less pronounced?
lyndajcla
Thanks, do you feel in general do the policies make it easier or harder for you in carrying out your job.
guytaur
What legislation are the Greens putting up that the government has agreed to support? As far as I can see there is none.
The government will move an amendment to Section 5 of the Commonwealth Inscribed Stock Act 1911 to remove the limit on stock and securities on issue. It will sail through the reps and the Greens will support it in the senate. There is no other legislation involved, just an agreement that can be ripped up or worked around.
Why did Howard condemn the Govt to billions in middle/high income welfare?
Instead of future proofing the Aust economy with a Sovereign Fund
[I think Meg Milne just went feral today.]
Ducky:
What are you referring to?
I do think we are good value for money. We are poorly paid and yet hard working, positive and un deterred in advocating for our folk. There is little far to be cut out.
There is definitely a campaign to get rid if Credlin. Her control of MP appointments and not Llowing a pay rise to staffers really pissed off a lot of Libs.
all the Greens did was allow the Libs to avoid the pain of raising the debt ceiling when they blow debt out beyond the projected maximum of 370 billion
I’m sure we’ll soon have a photo of Bill Shorten standing next to a placard that reads “Abbott: Christine Milne’s toy boy”.
—
Fair’s fair.
[Why did Labor invent a debt ceiling and then blow through it like a rocket with their Labor debt]
Idiot face, if you could read the national accounts you will see the only thing keeping us out of recession (remember the nasty thing US and Europe are trying to get themselves out of) is Federal Gov spending.
Even Joe knows he cannot cut spending, his revenue problem is identical to Swan’s so he must increase debt. Treasury will be telling him so.
Joe is on the verge of a pump priming infrastructure spend-a-thon, his big trick will be to pretend he is returning the budget to surplus, which is impossible without being reckless and killing the economy cold.
lyndajcla
There is no doubting that. I’m not talking about are there areas for cutting as i don’t think there are but rather do do the procedures and policies enable the wonderful people in the social welfare sector to be able to help.
I’m sure there are lots of ways we can get to a surplus in under 20 years. While there may be limited opportunities to attack ‘waste and mismanagement’, I suspect that the low hanging fruit has long been picked.
How about the following
1. Abolish all tax rorts like novated leases. If anyone is paid other than in currency treat it as if they were paid in currency. If the employer is providing, for example, tools or equipment or cars to use for work, the recipient can keep appropriate documentation.
2. Phase out negative gearing. As a bonus, investors bidding up property prices for tax gains leave the market and give genuine homebuyers a fair run
3. Abolish CGT discount
4. Phase out support for elite private schools. Dust off Mark Latham’s hit list to make a start.
5. Phase out private health insurance rebate. Let the private health companies compete on the merits of their product
6. Wind back superannuation tax concessions back to where they compensate recipients for not drawing the pension
7. Take a close look at the taxation of trusts
8. Taxes on Financial transactions, especially across currencies
9. Why can’t we add a percentage point or two to income tax or company tax if the budget needs repair? Obviously no point in adding higher marginal tax rate at the top while they are so easily avoided, but see what they can do there.
10. Do not proceed with PPL scheme
11. Cap all benefits paid to people in the workforce to what someone on about $60k would receive. Phase out all such benefits to zero by around 120-150k
12. Miners to pay a fair price for resources owned by the Australian people
13. Go to an ETS. Drop Direct Inaction.
I’m sure there’s a lot more we can do without compromising the services we expect from governments or disadvantaging anyone genuinely in need of support.
confessions
Yep. It would have been done and dusted and a non issue. Business and the Coalition were on board at the time. The Minchin/Robb faction of crazies would have been left as an irrelavent bunch of loons.