Seat of the week: Ryan

The subject of a better-late-than-never Seat of the Week is the wealthiest electorate in Brisbane, which has reverted solidly to conservative type since a fleeting moment of glory for Labor in 2001.

Teal and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The western Brisbane seat of Ryan is dominated geographically by the Taylor Range to the city’s north-west, but nearly all of its voters are drawn from the suburban plains to the east and south. The suburbs of Ferny Grove and Enoggera at the northern end are Labor-leaning, but in the south are wealthier Indooroopilly and Kenmore on the northern shore of the Brisbane River, with conservative-leaning The Gap and Bardon lying in between. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, from territory which had been passed around over time between Lilley, Brisbane and Moreton. It has covered much the same area since, although between 1998 and 2010 the northern end was exchanged for Middle Park and Jindalee south of the river.

Ryan has been won easily won by the Liberals, and more lately the Liberal National Party, at every general election since its creation. Prior to 2001 it had had only two members, firstly Nigel Drury until 1975, and then Howard government Defence Minister John Moore. Then came the only interruption to the seat’s history of conservative dominance after Moore quit parliament when he lost his portfolio in a reshuffle. At a troubled time for the Howard government, the ensuing by-election in February 2001 was won by Labor with a 9.8% swing, giving them what proved an ill-founded confidence boost concerning their prospects at the election due later in the year. Labor member Leonie Short went on to defeat the following November at the hands of Liberals candidate Michael Johnson, a 34-year-old Hong Kong-born and Cambridge-educated barrister of part Chinese extraction. Johnson won a local preselection plebiscite amid loud complaints of branch stacking, and after a defeated candidate’s successful Supreme Court action against a move by the state executive to install its own candidate.

The statewide swing to Labor in 2007 cut the margin from 10.4% to 3.8%, from which it was further reduced to 1.1% by the redistribution that took effect at the 2010 election. Meanwhile opposition to Johnson was mounting within his own party, with reports emerging of an internal investigation into his expenditure records and fundraising activities. In May 2010 he was expelled from the party for attempting to broker an export deal between the Queensland Coal Corporation and a Chinese conglomerate during parliamentary sittings and with the use of his parliamentary email address. A preselection was then won comfortably by Jane Prentice, who served the Indooroopilly-based ward of Walter Taylor on Brisbane City Council. Johnson ran as an independent in 2010 but secured only 8.5% of the vote, with Prentice securing the seat for the LNP with a 6.0% swing. She picked up a further 1.4% swing in 2013, boosting her margin to 8.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

991 comments on “Seat of the week: Ryan”

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  3. Steve777

    That is a good list to start from.

    The only ones i would dismiss are 7 & 8

    10 needs a serious change, currency it is totally unaffordable.

  4. Diogenes

    They are in a real bind though. The dominatrix is the only one to have been able to keep Abbott’s inner mad monk suppressed for any length of time. Get rid of her and ????

  5. BW

    I don’t know if Oz troops were involved in massacres in DIE at the close of the war, but I did read that the British (I think) allowed the Japanese to keep their weapons and command structure for a little while in the DEI after the A-bombs to ensure “order” was kept among the natives. Apparently there were not enough “allied” troops to do the job.

    Mind you, the British had some experience of this for a long time in India.

  6. Mexican beer the changes to my sector are not understood by any of us working here. I was optimistic under labour because they always support my folk better. I fear for us now. If the eligibility criteria excludes those with anxiety and depression the cost to us all socially and economically could be great.

  7. A tax on currency transactions in and out of Australia would raise a fair bit of money and have the added benefits of reducing unproductive speculative trading and lowering the $A. Win. Win. Win

  10. Victoria (723), thanks, and glad to give you a chuckle.

    GG (726), thanks also, and yes, a polystyrene dildo is much more useful than this sorry crew that lolls around on the Treasury benches.

    TLBD (729), yes Clive’s dinghy is definitely a bonus. We need to resurrect the Dunkirk spirit quick smart.

    Poroti (745), I hope so. It’s time these guys paid more than lip-service to the separation of powers.

    Just me (751), thanks for your kind words. It’s great to know there are lots of Steely Dan devotees around.

  11. Zoidlord – given that about 1% of currency transactions relate to actual goods transactions and the rest is arbitraging, buying and selling shares and similar finacial transaction the effect on actual goods is miniscule.

  12. Peta Credlin seems to be copping a lot of flack at the moment.

    Just proves that Gillard was wrong – she thought the second female PM was going to have an easier time than the first!

  13. #EastTimor PM Xanana Gusmao’s accused Australia of ‘unconscionable & unacceptable conduct not worthy of a close friend & neighbour’. #abc730

    So I guess we add another country that has Australia in its shit list, thanks Liberal Party.

  14. 30 years in mental health. The libs have never cared. If 1 in 4 is affected by mental illness then even the born to rule types have experienced it one way or another. They continue to lack compassion though. I have diagnosed several mental illnesses in our government if you take into account personality disorders and psychopathy.

  15. poroti

    I gather that lots if Libs are saying that there is not much point getting in power if you don’t get to enjoy it. They aren’t feeling they have been rewarded for toeing the party line and they are not happy campers.

    It’s not as enjoyable as they expected it to be. They won but at what cost.

  16. lynda

    Keating diagnosed Hawke with Narcissistic Personality Disorder in his Kerry interview. I strongly suspect Keating and Rudd fit that category as well.

  17. Why is Joe Hockey still fat? I thought he had that surgery where you can only eat a tiny amount of food without throwing it back up?

  20. [ Why is Joe Hockey still fat? I thought he had that surgery where you can only eat a tiny amount of food without throwing it back up? ]

    Yes, I know exactly what you mean. I feel the same when I read your posts.

  21. [Peta Credlin seems to be copping a lot of flack at the moment.

    Just proves that Gillard was wrong – she thought the second female PM was going to have an easier time than the first!]

    😆

  25. [ lyndajcla
    Posted Wednesday, December 4, 2013 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    …
    If 1 in 4 is affected by mental illness then even the born to rule types have experienced it one way or another.
    ]
    If 25% of the population suffer then a suspect you have to redifine the problem. Perhaps humanity is just plain crazy and people just have to accept it.

  26. rua @863: “So I guess we add another country that has Australia in its shit list, thanks Liberal Party.”

    Such pessimism. But we’ll always have Sri Lanka.

  28. S777

    [Hopefully we haven’t been spying on China or if we have Snowden hasn’t found out.]

    Any spying complaints coming out of China would be potkettling, big time.

  29. story i’d like to see in tomorrows press:

    Greens secure billion dollar funding for national Solar Thermal scheme in deal with coalition to abolish debt ceiling

  30. [story i’d like to see in tomorrows press:

    Greens secure billion dollar funding for national Solar Thermal scheme in deal with coalition to abolish debt ceiling]

    The story you’ll see instead in tomorrow’s press:

    ‘Flock of low flying pigs seen circling above the parliamentary triangle.’

  31. [story i’d like to see in tomorrows press:

    Greens secure billion dollar funding for national Solar Thermal scheme in deal with coalition to abolish debt ceiling]

    Continued operation of and funding for the CEFC would be a better deal for the nation.

  32. [Brandis dismissed arguments that the Asio raids were illegal. He said Collaery’s status as a lawyer did not excuse him from “the ordinary law of the land”.

    He also suggested Collaery was sailing close to the wind. “In particular, no lawyer can invoke the principles of lawyer-client privilege to excuse participation, whether as principal or accessory, in offences against the Commonwealth.”

    Barrister Greg Barns, a director of the Australian Lawyers Alliance, told Guardian Australia on Wednesday that Asio’s conduct during the raid was a “gross abuse of power and may well be illegal”.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/04/timor-leste-spy-case-george-brandis-denies-overstepping-his-powers?CMP=twt_gu

  35. [ story i’d like to see in tomorrows press:

    Greens secure billion dollar funding for national Solar Thermal scheme in deal with coalition to abolish debt ceiling ]

    More likely …

    [ Breaking News: Abbott backflips on gay marriage: “I was just confused about my sexuality” says Abbott. “Christine explained to me that it’s actually ok for gay people to be members of the LNP … now, excuse me – I have to go explain it all to Cory …” ]

  37. 1 in 4 makes it normal really. Anyone can be touched at any time, even the wealthy and powerful. The stigma needs to be reduced . We don’t say you have diabetes so you can’t work and yet to get a job when you have a mental illness is very difficult. Assumptions are made, employers are afraid and for no good reason. A person with mental ill health may sometimes find it hard to work but many others do too. If we don’t support these folk to work then we pay dearly socially and economically as I said earlier. Who hasn’t been depressed or anxious at some point in life. Even those with psychosis can contribute if the right supports are in place.

  40. I see the complaints about Hockey blocking Graincorp takeover seem to have retreated to the hardcore IPA ideologues and friends. ABC poll – 64 to 25 % support/oppose blocking decision.

  42. Steve @ 849

    1. Abolish tax rorts – yep.
    2. No.
    3. NO WAY.
    4. ?
    5. ?
    6. Kay.
    7. Possibly.
    8. No.
    9. YES/NO
    10. Absolutely.
    11. ?
    12. MRRT stays.
    13. Yes.

  43. The Piping Shrike

    [It’s getting hard to keep up. Government disarray, a non-existent honeymoon, and the most hostile media faced by any Liberal government in living memory have all meant the issues are now stacking up. On the international stage (let alone the domestic one) the Indonesia row has been overtaken by the Chinese row and now even East Timor feels up for having a go. Good grief.]

    http://www.pipingshrike.com/2013/12/the-new-regionalism-an-update.html

  44. Australians like the blocking of foreign investment in graincorp because they are xenophobic at heart. The govmints reason was it wasn’t popular. So much for the grown ups being in charge. Foreign investment a beauty paegent and Hockey is Miss congenialty

  45. Jack “Wanker” Waterford is at it again…

    In two years down the track, the events of the past week may be remembered not for the Pyne pratfalls or the shifts by Abbott.

    Rather, they will be remembered as proofs the Coalition did not have its act together on fundamental problems (relations with the states, schools and educational standards and government spending), nor a mechanism of controlling public expenditure – instanced by how Abbott was able to pluck a notional $1.2 billion from the ether after but a brief discussion with the leadership team.

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/prime-minister-tony-abbott-at-crease-but-few-runs-20131203-2yoxz.html#ixzz2mVFjatEu

    Yeah, well why didn’t you tell us all this before, Charlie?

    I mean… it wasn’t exactly rocket science to notice that Abbott had no policies and that Pyne was a complete twat.

  46. Steve at #849

    That’s not a bad list.
    Why don’t you forward it to the IPA for their approval?
    I’m sure they would support most of them.

  48. Let’s get fair dinkum!

    All Hockey had to do was put forward his case in a transparent and sincere way to the Opposition for needing to raise the debt ceiling to $500 billion and he would’ve got the support if his argument had merit.

    But no, Hockey wanted a brawl = that is all!

    And the Greens, in desperation to be relevant in their last 150 weeks or so as an elected party in parliament, went in to their assistance.

    Well, fine by me, I’m happy with it!

    But let’s not forget, the Greens have got form! They rejected the CPRS purely because as THE party of the environment, they couldn’t handle being left out in the cold on any negotiations 😎

  49. I see the complaints about Hockey blocking Graincorp takeover seem to have retreated to the hardcore IPA ideologues and friends. ABC poll – 64 to 25 % support/oppose blocking decision.

    One of the things about the Graincorp decision is it has the potential to put core support of the LNP offside.

    Yes, the Nationals base will be happy, but the business community will generally not be impressed.

    There’s probably a general approval from sections of the Greens and classic ALP supporters, but these voters are not going to vote for the LNP because of the Graincorp decision.

    Making decisions that are approved of by voters who will never vote for you in a pink fit is politically pointless.

    Making decisions that un-weld some of your own supporters, or at least make them start questioning whether the Libs really are the best representatives of, eg, the business community – that’s a potential problem.

    In itself not so significant. If it’s part of a series of stuffups (and we’re certainly seeing a series of stuffups big and small) then the LNP is risking large chunks of its support base.

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