Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

The first poll conducted since the government’s Gonski reversal finds, not unexpectedly, a sharp move to Labor.

The fortnightly Morgan poll, conducted from a sample of 2018 by face-to-face and SMS, provides further support for the recently recorded move against the Coalition, perhaps exacerbated by the Gonksi debacle. Labor is up no less than six points on the primary vote to 38.5%, with the Coalition down only a point to 41.5% off a below-par base from the previous poll. That leaves the Greens to fall 2.5% to 8.5%, with the Palmer United Party down 1.5% to 3.5% and others down one to 8%. This translates to a 51.5-48.5 lead to Labor on both respondent-allocated and 2013 election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

931 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. [614

    Is part of the Murdoch media falling our of love with the Abbott Govt ?]

    Going to be interesting to see which one shafts the other first, Abbott or Murdoch.

    My money is on Murdoch.

  2. fran

    [In a set of unprecedented lawsuits against New York, four chimpanzees are suing the state for their freedom.]

    We here are ahead of the pack.

    Tones already emancipated.

  3. [777

    Monsoon season has nothing to do with {stopping the boats}, of course.]

    Not to mention that unseasonally early cyclone last week.

  4. “@lyndalcurtis: Stoush in the #senate over sitting days for 2014. The Greens taking objection to sitting in the school holidays.”

  5. Abbott needs Murdoch more than Murdoch needs Abbott. Murdoch would probably prefer someone with an outlook closer to the economic dry / IPA view of the world. Joe hockey comes to mind. Malcolm Turnbull definitely not unless he convincingly renounces his past position on climate change. Or maybe another populist thug like Scott Morrison would make a more amenable front man.

  6. guytaur

    [“@lyndalcurtis: Stoush in the #senate over sitting days for 2014. The Greens taking objection to sitting in the school holidays.”]

    Abbott can’t take a trick.

  7. The Coalition doesn’t seem to realise the danger of living in the news corp echo chamber. If you could pick two things Australians have a deep emotional bond with, it’s schools and the ABC. The government has decided to pick a fight on both of them in the same week. What will they do next, dump Medicare?

    Stupid, stupid, for a government with zero political capital to spend, and rapidly moving into overdraft.

  8. ST
    [Why should the Australian Taxpayer pay $90 Billion dollars just so some rich kids can have slightly better quality television than the 1080p we currently enjoy?]

    You really are a dick.

    More and more people are working from home, accessing their office through the internet. The idiot Truffles of Wentworth, like you, doesn’t get that the upload speed, currently around 1Mb severely restricts the transfer of data. FTTP is symmetric – the same speed for uploads and downloads unlike FTTN which is asymmetric giving much faster download than upload – but still way slower than Labor’s FTTP.

    It makes much more sense to build FTTP as it will take more people off the roads and reduce traffic congestion as more and more people work and shop online, but that’s a bit too much for you and Truffles to understand.

  9. Tom L

    [If you could pick two things Australians have a deep emotional bond with, it’s schools and the ABC.]

    Agree fully.

    If they stuff around too much with Aunty I expect Talc will be minus his nutz next election.

  10. Malcolm Turnbull definitely not unless he convincingly renounces his past position on climate change.

    Murdoch’s position on climate change is not so cut and dried.

    News Corp, for example, has been proudly “carbon neutral” for a few years now. Apparently.

    Murdoch, himself, probably doesn’t really care about climate change or action on climate change one way or the other – what he does see is the politicization of climate action (what should be a cross-political issue has become a clear left-right shouting match), and being an unapologetic warrior for right-wing politics he sees a political battle to be waged on the pages of his newspapers (and his tweets).

    But, fundamentally, he wants what is in the best interests of his businesses, and his family dynasty’s inheritance … if Turnbull represents his best hope of a favourable business climate in Australia the Murdoch rags will swing in behind Turnbull.

    Or whichever other candidate meets that criterion.

  11. muttley @ 814, ST should really take that up with the Coalition. Why are they building just the network he describes when they could be building one that has the potential to change the way we work.

    Why have they taken what was going to be a platform for new applications and reduced it to a platform for barely improved old applications? We know the answer. That’s all that’s in their (and ST’s) vision, so that’s what they’re building for.

  12. political animal @ 723

    I penned a similar response also including 8K media. Who knows what bandwidth we will need in 2 years let alone 10 with advancements in technology ?

    Fraudband is an ill thought out dud now but if this FTTN actually gets traction it will be the biggest white elephant the country has ever seen.I sincerely hope Labor get back after 3 years of these insufferable luddites to fix the “mess” that was the NBN.

  13. There’s no way Turnbull would get a majority in the party room. It’s hockey or nobody, and I don’t think he has it in him to take Tony down this early.

    If he did though, it would definitely be the end of this government. Would amplify the perception of shambles this govt has already created, and Hockey is not well liked by anyone.

  14. The Greens Senate stuff is tricky, they want to can the two sitting weeks in July 2014 (school holidays I assume) , thus locking in the Carbon tax until July 2015.

  15. If the Coalition remain in power for more than a few years, we will see the ABC broken up with the profitable bits sold off and the remainder shut down. We will see Medicare wound back to the most basic safety net with the rest privatised.

  16. I agree, the ABC is pathetically biased.

    An authority or committee must be formed represented by totally independent members to monitor the political bias of the ABC.

    It is an unacceptable disgrace that the ABC, funded by all taxpayers, is biased in favour of one political side over another.

    Shocking for our democracy – MUST STOP!

  17. Great excuse to privatise the ABC, just claim it’s too biased.

    Well, sell the effing thing. A privately owned organisation will be just as biased.

    At least the taxpayers would not be funding it and they can pay coy tax on their net profits 😎

    That’s “net” profits, not gross or gross net or net gross, Barnaby you stupid year 1 TAFE dropout imbecile! 😀

  18. Regarding Murdoch and the environment – every Monday I am required to bundle up and return all unsold Courier Mail, Sydney Telegraph, Australian etc. I also have to return all unsolds for Woolworths and Petrol Plus too.

    It takes me about 3 hours (for which I receive nil payment) and put all in the locker at the close of business Monday for pick up by the delivery driver early Tuesday morning.

    We are told all papers are recycled and are part of the newsprint the papers are printed on down the track.

    Whether it’s his directive I don’t know, but it’s certainly company policy (which I support).

  19. A couple of polls and PB already discussing Abbott getting the flick as leader.

    Funny stuff.

    A sitting PM won’t be internally shafted again for a long, long time.

  20. 820

    Hockey reduced his chances of being able to overthrow Abbott with his rejection of the ADM application. Had he approved it (probably being sacked for doing so) resigned rather than reject it, he would be in a much better position with the economic dries (the main source of leadership imperilling discontent with Abbott).

  21. @guytaur 799

    [Leader at next election:

    Abbott $1.10
    Turnbull $6.50
    Bishop $12.00
    Hockey $14.00
    Pyne $26.00]

    Can’t say I’m one for any kind of gambling (at least, that which involves actual money), but those odds make me pretty tempted to place a bet on PM Hockey. The way things are going, he seems to be the only one of that lot who’ll have any political capital left by the time the party room is calling for Abbott’s head.

  22. “@KarenMMiddleton: PM Abbott to hold a news conference at 1.30pm AEDT.”

    Labor have someone watching it so tactics can be changed for QT if necessary

  23. Re Abbott getting the “shaft” if the figures close in showed a wipe-out for the LNP they’re just as likely to do what the ALP did to minimise losses. Today, more than ever, the leader is the one who sinks the team. In Abbott’s case many members of the team are just as bad. They have about two years or so to turn things around before the decision is made..

  24. Look, they’re not going to get rid of Abbott just like that. He’s there for at least the term unless you see polling with the ALP in the mid 40’s and the Coalition in the high 30’s and 2PP’s consistently in the 45/55 range and that’s pretty doubtful

  25. In other words, you’d have to see a structural shift in the polls for the Liberals to even consider switching from Abbott. And then you run into their complications with their internal politics as Abbott has himself firmly entrenched between the ideological wings of the parties. Different situation from what happened with the ALP

  26. I don’t think that the ABC is biased. Most conservative-minded people think it’s biased to the ALP while many on the left detect a Coalition bias.

    In my opinion the ABC is the most part balanced but is too often prepared to take the lead from the popular morning press (mostly controlled by guess who?). That is probably a combination of laziness and a lack of resources. Murdoch and IPA shills get more than a fair hearing on current affairs shows like Insiders and The Drum.

    The ABC has given Labor PMs and Ministers a lot of grief over the years, as it has to their Coalition counterparts. That’s its job. And if we see and hear mostly Labor politicians on the ABC it’s because their Coalition counterparts won’t accept invitations to go on, preferring to stick to friends like Sky TV, Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones.

    By the way, if the Government don’t want to come across as a bunch of shambolic, incompetent clowns and blowhards on the ABC or on any other media, they should stop behaving like one.

  27. @gloryconsequence 827

    [A couple of polls and PB already discussing Abbott getting the flick as leader.

    Funny stuff.

    A sitting PM won’t be internally shafted again for a long, long time.]

    The fear of replicating the Labor leadershit issues will likely help Abbott survive in the job longer than he would otherwise, but IMO the only thing we can take for granted with the Liberals is that they will do whatever they think they need to do to stay in power.

    If that means knocking off a first-term PM, or turning sharply to the left in key areas, or most frightening of all for the party room – electing Turnbull as leader – than so be it. If, say, the polls end up around 55-45 to Labor for some time and business leaders and other vested interests are demanding that Abbott is ousted, all bets are off.

    But, yes, the events of June 2010 will probably mean they stick with Abbott until its far too late for a change of leader to do any good.

  28. Asha Leu@830: I agree, the odds on Hockey are ludicrously long. And, if the odds for Bishop and Pyne are truly $12 and $26 respectively, then the odds on Bob Brown coming back as Liberal leader must be around $35!!

  29. Steve

    The ABC is biased for the reasons you mention. Not a deliberate one.

    A good example is the paper rounds they do. 70% Murdoch bias repeated right there.

  30. [494
    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 9:47 pm | PERMALINK
    The Walking Dead is a TV series showing on Foxtel. It’s about flesh-eating zombies.]

    So a bit like Parliament. 😛

  31. Hey Tony how about negotiating your legislation through Parliament like every PM before you had to. Oh sorry not very good at negotiating are you.

  32. “@sarahinthesen8: Tony Abbott using the term “giving the two fingers” would have to be one of the most un-prime ministerial phrases I’ve herd this brute say.”

  33. Abbott: “Bill Shorten is putting his thumb up to the Australian people… err, he’s putting two fingers up to the Australian people”

    The bloke can’t even enunciate an insult.

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