Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

The first poll conducted since the government’s Gonski reversal finds, not unexpectedly, a sharp move to Labor.

The fortnightly Morgan poll, conducted from a sample of 2018 by face-to-face and SMS, provides further support for the recently recorded move against the Coalition, perhaps exacerbated by the Gonksi debacle. Labor is up no less than six points on the primary vote to 38.5%, with the Coalition down only a point to 41.5% off a below-par base from the previous poll. That leaves the Greens to fall 2.5% to 8.5%, with the Palmer United Party down 1.5% to 3.5% and others down one to 8%. This translates to a 51.5-48.5 lead to Labor on both respondent-allocated and 2013 election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

931 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. bemused

    [Much that Hitler did was perfectly legal too as his gang made the laws after becoming the government.]

    That’s true, but the Nazis came to power on the strength of the efforts of Rohm, who built the Sturmabteil into a force of about 3 million thugs and they operated outside of the law but at the pleasure of Hitler (and to the chagrin of other elements of the state post-1933. He would have had no leverage to make his ascent to power but for this force. The SA operated during the period when Hitler was himself in gaol. Until mid-1934 the SA was an integral part of the party. Post-1934 one can argue that the fascists became simply another example of bonapartist rule, as what was left of the SA post the night of the long knives was incorporated into the SS or the Wehrmacht.

    The Likud is nothing like this. They’ve been voted out of power. They have no laws prohibiting the culturally deviant from participating in civil or political life. Other parties are legal entities. Trade unions persist.

    You have a better case arguing that the armed settler movement gangs are fascist, but AFAIK they have no organisational connection with Likud.

  2. Corio

    Educational funding to the states- under the clause you cite – must be tied.

    (In other words, it must fulfill ‘the terms and conditions’ ‘the Parliament thinks fit’ – so an agreement of some kind is needed to ensure that).

    And yes, there are restrictions on the Commonwealth on the kinds of buildings (my point; note I recognised Rudd spent money on school buildings) it can build in schools, which is spelt out by the States Grant Act.

    Payment to non government schools can’t be made at the whim of Parliament – again, there has to be a binding agreement signed between representative parties.

    This document provides some clarification (the situation is a little more complicated than I thought, and more complicated than I’ve indicated here!)

    http://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/library/pubs/bn/sp/schoolsfunding.pdf

    I also note that Pyne IS negotiating an agreement with the non-Gonski states – because he has to, to conform with the very Constitutional clause you refer to.

  3. Sean @706 – many posters here say that you should be ignored, but you are repeating the lies that I heard from Scott Morrison on Radio National this morning. I am not accusing you of lying, just of repeating lies you probably believe. The Liberal’s strategy in Opposition and now in Government seems to be to repeat lies until they are believed and that strategy should be opposed at every turn.

    As to TPVs, they did not work. See the link in my post #647. That is in part why John Howard introduced the Pacific Solution in 2001.

    The Pacific solution did work, although mainly by bluff, as Alexander Downer has admitted. It did not work when Labor reintroduced it two years ago. Pacific Solution Mark I worked for the same reason that the PNG solution is working now. People assumed that they would be slung into a black hole forever. Like the Pacific Solution, the PNG solution is probably not sustainable.

    On another subject, I see the Turkey survived Thanksgiving. However, he’s still got to make it through Christmas.

  4. In my experience, “fascist” goes with “socialist” and “neocon” in the the list of words some politically-minded people like to throw around without actually knowing what the word means.

  5. Carey Moore@750


    “@7NewsMelbourne: #BREAKING: All charges against Frankston MP Geoff Shaw have been dropped. Story with link to come. #springst”


    The political damage is done though.

    Including the damage to the justice system.

    What a farce.

    Slipper no doubt howling as well….

  6. “@7NewsMelbourne: #BREAKING: All charges against Frankston MP Geoff Shaw have been dropped. Story with link to come. #springst”

    This stinks like a bag of bad prawns.

  7. How the worm turns.

    Turnbull caught whingeing about the ABC:

    It is understood that journalists at News Corp obtained an audio recording taken at a Liberal Party lunch at which Mr Turnbull spoke last Friday. Quotes from Mr Turnbull’s speech at the function were published in The Australian and Daily Telegraph newspapers on Tuesday.

    “I thought it was an error of judgment on {the ABC’s} part to publish that material,” Mr Turnbull reportedly said.

    “{The Guardian} were going to publish it and they just basically wanted a partner to help them amplify their publication.

    “This was something where Kath Viner {editor of The Guardian Australia} came along to Mark Scott and said ‘Look, we’re going to run this, do you want to do it in conjunction with us and that will produce more interest?

    “Obviously she would have hoped for more hits on her website.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-rounds-on-abc-boss-mark-scott-over-phonetapping-stories-20131203-2ymrw.html#ixzz2mMcL3LR8

    Excuse me, but if The Guardian had kept the story as an exclusive, I think that would have guaranteed even MORE hits on their web site.

    Instead, they shared it with the ABC and watered down the potentcy of the story, as far as "exclusivity" was concerned. Turnbull's argument is a crock.

    If Conroy had said this to a "Labor lunch" it would have been full of shrieking "Hands off the ABC", "Conroy shoots messenger" and "Minister shackles media" headlines in… yes… News Corp publications.

    News Corp are just shitty they didn’t get the story, first (where they could have managed to blame Rudd for everything), and secondly that the government managed to clumsily shoot itself in the foot over the yarn because they thought the Peta Credlin Method would work on foreign heads of state as well as it works on denizens of the Tradies Bar at Rooty Hill RSL (where T-shirts and thongs are not only permissible, but compulsory). They were wrong.

    If ever there was an illustration that the last three years of the ABC’s slagging off Labor, “amplifying” the Group Think and sledging on behalf of the Coalition was going to get them precisely nowhere, this is it.

    It looks like the ABC is about to experience a big, painful learning curve.

  8. And in typical parochial from the West news paper has….”School funding win for WA”….. as a small header on the front page.

    Inside a kind of gloat on behalf of Barnett that he sat out the funding on Gonski and now gets it all for no effort.

    Meanwhile the editorial sourly admits the Abbott/Pyne made a total mess and “backflip” is used to describe same.

    The West, in its usual hammer-the-Feds and bash-the- East kind of agrees that the government has kind of done the right thing by way of the funding and kind of wants it all to go away.

  9. And on another matter…that some of the more outlandish comments from some of our right-wing friends are a hoot, why anyone bothers to respond to them is a mystery to me.

    I would seem to me that some of the icons used actually are operated by several people at one time or another. On some occasions the comments are almost at the Year 6 stage of expression (about the level one needs apparently to read some magazines) while at others, the sentences are complex and long.

    I suspect, though cannot of course prove, that these are deliberate attempt by some, and I know know who, to put countervailing comments here for hard-nosed political reasons which have little or nothing to do with some kind of debate.

  10. Here’s an extract fromn a dictionary definition of Fascism:

    an authoritarian and nationalistic right-wing system of government and social organization. …Fascism tends to include a belief in the supremacy of one national or ethnic group, a contempt for democracy, an insistence on obedience to a powerful leader, and a strong demagogic approach

    http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/fascism

    I would also add to that a contempt and disdain for outgroups, who depending upon the time and place may be people of a certain ethnicity (or any ethnicity other than one’s own), religion or political belief (e.g. Communists).

    I think there is a lot of incipient fascism around. It is probably part of human nature in times of fear and uncertainty. Australia would not be immune should we suffer from a severe economic reversal – Great Depression II.

    And who are the fascists in our community? People who say the Navy should ‘sink the boats’ rather than tow back, turn back or buy them would be included. Others? It may include people in politics who are prepared to use hatred of outsiders for political gain. It may include saying that asylum seekers create traffic jams on local freeways, although I think that particular remark from someone who is now a Liberal MP was simple stupidity. Scott Morrison’s issue of press releases accusing asylum seekers of being carriers of disease? I’m not so sure.

  11. Wait till the giant stinker in the mail with the new “Social Services and Other Legislation Amendment Bill 2013” bill starts getting interpreted by the populace.

    The interpretation pdf trumpets about how it is fullfilling its 2013 promise to do something about problem gambling by abolishing all the govt projects and maybe sort of possibly doing something at some later date. Ie the bold new approach of “lets not do anything at all”.

    People are not falling for this anymore.

  12. The relationship between the Victorian Govt and Police has been on the nose for many years.
    This Shaw debacle can be added to a long list of questionable activity.

  13. “It looks like the ABC is about to experience a big, painful learning curve.”

    I once heard it put that “liberals” (in the US sense of the term) are like abused partners. Continuously being beaten but refusing to divorce because “deep down he loves me and will learn to treat me better”. This applies to the ABC too. It spent the past 6 years sabotaging labor to try and protect itself from the libs, but forgets that the libs don’t actually care, because its tory doctrine that govt owned things are bad and must be killed off. And doctrine is everything, reality be damned.

  14. Labor tries to sell the people smugglers a product from opposition… they never learn do they?

    They also said the Pacific Solution didn’t work for 10 years before effectively taking up the policy in full. Talk about slow learners…

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/immigration-minister-scott-morrison-slams-rejection-of-reintroduction-of-temporary-protection-visas-20131203-2ympr.html

    And after all those years it turns out they where right in the first place. The pacific solution didn’t work. After it was more or less reintroduced the boats kept coming, and the decades old trend of boat arivals perfectly matching international trends rather than domestic policy continued unabated.

    Howard never introduced a single law that stopped boat arivals, and neither did Labor. They stopped here at the same time they stopped elsewhere in the world, and started up at the same time. How foolish of us to think some internationally unknown laws in australia would stop people fleeing on the other side of the planet.

  15. The leaked caretaker Govt brief on Fraudband really leaves Malcolm Turnbull no room to move.

    Fraudband most definitely needs to be junked.

  16. zoomster@752

    I don’t doubt that other pieces of legislation might impinge on any given grant to the the States under S.96, but that legislation itself forms part of the “terms and conditions” of the Parliament.

    Can you give me an idea about which law/s (as opposed to political reality) requires that there has to be a binding agreement signed between representative parties?

  17. Apparently Abbott has told the Lib party room that they might have to sit after December 16 to keep pressure on the ALP over carbon & mining taxes, TPVs and debt ceiling.

    Seems a bit pointless – if they’ve been rejected in the Senate, then sending them through the process again doesn’t achieve a thing.

  18. Oh, and sorry, I haven’t yet had time to look through the whole of the document you linked to. If the necessary info. is there, can you direct me more specifically to it?

  19. Julia Gillards boyfriend did the same thing as Geoff Shaw, yet Timmy was never charged with anything.

    Must have set the precedent.

  20. Fran @738

    Those batteries and ultra capacitor banks, and the associated control software, are a real work of art, and will no doubt be very useful. Their purpose is to regulate frequency deviations in the grid caused by very short term load imbalances, less than 5 minutes in duration. They fill a role that this currently filled by large, synchronous generators, via the primary (“droop control”) and secondary frequency control mechanisms. The benefit is that synchronous generators, which are typically fossil fuel fired, do not have to maintain reserves for secondary frequency control, which basically means they can be run at closer to peak efficiency. That is: same power, less fuel, less emissions.

    But there is another, bigger problem, to do with load imbalances with longer durations, from a few hours up to months in length, in a future energy system with a high penetration of renewables. This is where bulk energy storage becomes neded, and batteries just aren’t going to cut it because their efficiencies are too low and/or their long-term storage capacities are not great. IMHO, for durations up to 48 hours, thermal storage (molten salt) looks promising, while over longer periods, stored hydrogen (for use in either gas-fired turbines or fuel cells) seems more appropriate. But a mix of these technologies will inevitably be the outcome.

    AEMO are looking at options, including battery technology, for SA and Vic as they increase their wind generation capacity. I’m certain the CEFC is too, whatever its future may be.

  21. Corio

    the fact that Pyne is negotiating such agreements demonstrates that they are necessary.

    It’s a two edged sword, btw – the States are reluctant to let the Feds fund education, because they want to retain control over its delivery (this isn’t an uncommon situation – I know of negotiations between community groups where one group wanted to inject cash into the other, and the other didn’t want the cash because they’d still be responsible if things got stuffed up).

    If the Feds were able to fund education willy nilly, then there wouldn’t be ‘Gonski’ and ‘non Gonski’ states. The Feds have to be able to demonstrate – according the clause you’ve quoted – that the money will be spent in accordance with the wishes of the Federal parliament. As the states (given a bucket of money) can (constitutionally) spend it anyway they like, then the Feds can’t just give them money ‘for education’ – that wouldn’t comply with the clause you’ve cited.

  22. Carey Moore@750

    “@7NewsMelbourne: #BREAKING: All charges against Frankston MP Geoff Shaw have been dropped. Story with link to come. #springst”


    The political damage is done though.

    I hope the DPP suffers some well deserved political damage as well. It is a corrupt body.

  23. ST;

    [Abbott has stopped the boats. Only 9 people arrived last week… we don’t need the Indonesians who are in bed with the people smugglers anyways. The Indonesian Government is a push factor indeed, but by destroying the pull factor of permanent residency and an insta-visa the Coalition is now successful in stopping the boats.]

    Monsoon season has nothing to do with it, of course.

  24. [Abbott threatening to prolong Parliament to get his legislation through]

    Heard that as well, what good will making Parliament sit longer do as I can’t see Labor or the Greens budging without Abbott making some serious concessions. Just shows their attitude to Governing is the more you bash them over the head the more likely they are to give in.

  25. When was the last time a new government, state or federal, was trailing in the polls after three months?

    Could TA be making history with a couple more polls like this one?

  26. mikehilliard

    [Just shows their attitude to Governing is the more you bash them over the head the more likely they are to give in.]

    Stating the obvious Abbott is a bully with a sense of entitlement.

    And as for Morrison – he is no Christian.

  27. Zoomster@773

    the fact that Pyne is negotiating such agreements demonstrates that they are necessary.

    Undoubtedly, but “necessary” in what sense? It’s a definite political necessity, I’d have thought. And I don’t doubt that the federal Parliament has passed a number of laws which govern how grants have to be made to the states for a myriad of things.

    I note that there are constitutional provisions, for example in S.51(ii) & S.99, prohibiting the Commonwealth from discriminating between states or parts of states in its financial dealings with them, and that obviously limits the extent of the power granted by S.96.

  28. How is all of this Gonski money meant to lift the “disadvantaged” out of their disadvantage? Surely their disadvantage comes from the home they are being raised in?

    Surely their failure at school is just a symptom (one of many) of their poor-values, poor-behaviour, poor-example home environment? What exactly is this cash injection meant to do to deal with the cause of their disadvantage?

    They may as well just divide the extra money up, wad it up into tight little bullet-shaped suppositories and shove it up the fat little proles’ rectums. It will have about as much effect on their life chances as it will giving it to the feminized, non-judgmental, Fran-Barlows-everywhere public schools.

  29. “@StephenLongABC: “We have come under concentrated attack from News Corp; ideological opposition to public broadcasting.” Mark Scott. + commercial imperative.”

  30. Answered my own question.

    [When a Parliament or a session of Parliament has been opened as described above, the Senate determines its own sittings.]

  31. On the Geoff Shaw thing. Any connection to the Slipper case regarding Privilege?

    Trying to make some sense of what has happened today and struggling

  32. “@StephenJonesMP: @AlboMP & I just lodged the Private Members High Speed Rail Bill to protects corridors & start the planning http://t.co/c0VDP6tx6v

    “@SenKimCarr: Labor will not back Coalition’s cynical move to go ahead with $2.3bn in higher ed savings after abandoning the 6 yr plan they were funding”

  33. [So the ALP et all who currently have a Senate Majority could choose to do so?]

    The Majority could call for The Senate to adjourn on the due date and there is nothing Abbott can do, apart from waste money farting in the Reps.

  34. “@TheKouk: Liberal Leadership betting:

    Leader at next election:

    Abbott $1.10
    Turnbull $6.50
    Bishop $12.00
    Hockey $14.00
    Pyne $26.00
    #auspol”

  35. guytaur@799

    “@TheKouk: Liberal Leadership betting:

    Leader at next election:

    Abbott $1.10
    Turnbull $6.50
    Bishop $12.00
    Hockey $14.00
    Pyne $26.00
    #auspol”

    It might be worth putting a few sheckels on Turnbull

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