Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

The first poll conducted since the government’s Gonski reversal finds, not unexpectedly, a sharp move to Labor.

The fortnightly Morgan poll, conducted from a sample of 2018 by face-to-face and SMS, provides further support for the recently recorded move against the Coalition, perhaps exacerbated by the Gonksi debacle. Labor is up no less than six points on the primary vote to 38.5%, with the Coalition down only a point to 41.5% off a below-par base from the previous poll. That leaves the Greens to fall 2.5% to 8.5%, with the Palmer United Party down 1.5% to 3.5% and others down one to 8%. This translates to a 51.5-48.5 lead to Labor on both respondent-allocated and 2013 election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

931 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. “@latikambourke: PM Abbott ‘ABC under its charter is not supposed to be carrying advertising so why should it be advertising a left wing British newspaper?’”

  2. “@ABCNews24: Tony Abbott: I think the ABC were guilty of poor judgment in acting as an advertising agent for ‘The Guardian’ #spying #auspol”

  3. Gotta love the GG. Sooooo how do they describe Abbott and Pyne’s lies and backflips over Gonski ?

    [……..had misjudged its attempt this week to wind back its school funding commitment.]

  4. Abbott asks “why should the ABC be advertising a left wing British newspaper?”

    Does he ask the same when the ABC runs Newspoll related stories every fortnight ??

  5. “@GrogsGamut: Abbott: “Karen… I am just going to stress that I want to avoid answering that question*” (*maybe not a direct quote)”

  6. I am immune to such insults. I pity anyone who was taken in by The Great Termite. Bemused and I agree on a lot of things. I just do not share his admiration for that traitorous sociopath.

  7. ABC under its charter is not supposed to be carrying advertising so why should it be advertising a left wing British newspaper?

    Our PM is an idiot.

  8. “@danielhurstbne: “Why should the ABC act as an advertising agent for a left-wing British newspaper?” – PM Abbott advertises @GuardianAus at press conference”

  9. Nor will I be discouraged from mentioning the beat Prime Minister since Keating and Gough, who also happened to be our first female PM.

    If some people don’t like it, tough foreskins.

  10. I am a bit confused about the Coalition and Gonski.

    Here is my take:

    First position: Total Opposition.

    Second position: Total opposition unless all the states and territories signed up to it.

    Third position: total support, regardless of whether all the states and territories signed up to it.

    Election happens

    Fourth position: Total opposition.

    Fifth position: Total support but only for the first four years.

    Sixth position: Watch this space.

  11. Rex Douglas

    Abbott asks “why should the ABC be advertising a left wing British newspaper?”

    Does he ask the same when the ABC runs Newspoll related stories every fortnight ??]
    It is not the newspaper bit it is the “left wing” part which Abbott considers to be Eeeeeevil !

  12. gloryconsequence @ 850

    [Abbott: “Bill Shorten is putting his thumb up to the Australian people… err, he’s putting two fingers up to the Australian people”

    The bloke can’t even enunciate an insult.]

    Well I guess that puts the foot on the other hand ?

  13. … ‘ABC under its charter is not supposed to be carrying advertising so why should it be advertising a left wing British newspaper?’”

    When is the Prime Minister going to stop lying? Rhetorical question.

  14. “@senthorun: So, unless you’re “touting” for News Ltd, you have poor judgment? Well, at least we can stop the pretense of political impartiality. #auspol”

  15. Boerwar

    I look forward to Tricky Tony giving his ” “You don’t have Abbott to kick around any more because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference ” speech

  16. “@beneltham: ABC by far and away the most trusted news outlet in Australia. It has approval ratings Abbott has never achieved”

  17. On Foxtel moving into the broadband market…

    The Turnbull #Fraudband system will have just enough bandwidth to carry Foxtel… but no more.

    Other potential cable/internet TV players, with higher bandwidth requirements, will be shut out.

    Secondly, Foxtel has to organize and pay for cabling to houses where there is no existing infrastructure.

    With #Fraudband, the Australian taxpayer is doing that for Rupert… for free.

  18. “@tim_chr: If @TonyAbbottMHR thinks so highly of @tanya_plibersek’s opinion, let’s ask her what she thinks of the PM. #auspol”

  19. I notice that while no-one is commenting on matters of intelligence, because it is traditional not to do so, and it is bipartisan not to do so, just about every ractionary hack in the Australian MSM has obviously been privately briefed by one, some or all of: ASD backgrounders, by Brandis, by the PMO or by Brandis’ office.

    As a result of this backgrounding said reactionary hacks are talking wisely about all sorts of intelligence matters like the wise old parrots that they are. And, by one of those odd coincidences, they are all parroting the same tune on the same day:

    (1) call Snowden a ‘traitor’.
    (2) cast doubt on Snowden’s documents (unverifiable)
    (3) attack the Guardian
    (4) attack the ABC
    (5) deny any unsuitable facts of the matter
    (6) itemize intell successes vis-a-vis terrorists.

    Of course (5) and (6) are completely untestable and unverifiable because we do not talk about intelligence matters.

    Here is the main message: Abbott’s catspaws will be primed to talk about intelligence matters to Abbott’s heart’s content. Intell will be used by Abbott in party partisan fasion. Intell will be spilled to Abbott hacks as required. But, of course, Abbott will not discuss intell.

    What all this shows clearly is one thing: Abbott is not fit to be prime minister.

  20. “@LeslieHammondQC: Can’t wait for @LaTrioli to read out News Ltd headlines re. Abbott’s criticism of the ABC for promoting the Guardian on tomorrows show!”

  21. On the (earlier) subject of who will lead the Liberals at the next election: Right now, there’s still no need for them to even think about anybody but Abbott, so the nearly even money price of Abbott leading seems like a fair call.

    However, if, in like a year or two, the party decides it needs a new leader (which I rate as unlikely), my money would be on Hockey, not Turnbull. Hockey is Treasurer so, unless it is an economic problem which killed Abbott, he’d be a strong choice as successor and, out of this government, Hockey seems to have acclimatised to government pretty well and seems more comfortable in government than opposition.

    But it’s way too early to make any such predictions and, realistically, Abbott’s probably going nowhere before the next election.

  22. Why is the NPC listening to Lomberg?

    His economic comparisons of AGW consequences are absolutely pathetic.

    Lomberg has shifted his position but it is now, wtte, that the costs of preventing AGW are less than the costs of fixing up any AGW messes.

    No-one ever tests this Lomberg crap.

    Just take one small example, Lomberg simply does not include the additional costs of storm damage and the number of deaths consequent to increased ocean heat and increased base sea-level.

    What does this mean? He would not know how people died in Haiyan as a consequence of the storm surge being larger than it might have been pre-AGW. He would not know how much additional destruction to infrastructure and to private property compared with pre-AGW settings.

  23. Abbott has publically called The Guardian a “left wing” newspaper.

    When has the Labor Party ever called The Australian or The Daily Telegraph a “right wing” newspaper?

    That’s the difference between the two parties.

    Labor are weak!

  24. For Fuack’s sake…just effing pass TPVs.

    Give the Monkey no excuses, he can’t stop the boats.

    And keep away from those wacka-lacka-loopy-loons!

  25. This stop the boats business is so freaking boring. If the L/NP don’t shut up about it, the whole nation will nod off.

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