Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

The first poll conducted since the government’s Gonski reversal finds, not unexpectedly, a sharp move to Labor.

The fortnightly Morgan poll, conducted from a sample of 2018 by face-to-face and SMS, provides further support for the recently recorded move against the Coalition, perhaps exacerbated by the Gonksi debacle. Labor is up no less than six points on the primary vote to 38.5%, with the Coalition down only a point to 41.5% off a below-par base from the previous poll. That leaves the Greens to fall 2.5% to 8.5%, with the Palmer United Party down 1.5% to 3.5% and others down one to 8%. This translates to a 51.5-48.5 lead to Labor on both respondent-allocated and 2013 election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

931 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  2. @Sean/550

    Your the nice try by trying to blame Labor.

    Abbott has been PM since September, time to accept Reality Sean.

    Not your imaginary minds.

  3. [Genghis Khan definitely had a bigger empire than the Soviets.]

    I suppose that’s possible, at least briefly, although it would be impossible to give an exact land area to the Mongol empire.

    [One of the Persian kings, either Darius, Xerxes or Ataxerxes ruled over almost 50% of the worlds population.]

    I doubt that. India and China combined would have had a bigger population than the Persian Empire even then. But I also doubt that anyone knows even approximately the population of any ancient state. Even the population of the Roman Empire, which had censuses, is widely disputed.

  5. For the lovers of weather stats, Darwin has just had its wettest November with 515 mm, smashing the 122 year old record of 354 mm. (November mean is 133 mm, and mean annual total is 1806 mm.)

  6. Hmmm, does anybody know why the markets fell today?

    C’mon, Japan and China should kiss and make up, the US should mind it’s own business and as for the Monkey, he should quit and Taronga Park zoo.

  9. Centre

    Posted Monday, December 2, 2013 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    Hmmm, does anybody know why the markets fell today?
    ———————————————————

    Abbott? Hockey?

    Or in Sean’s world the Labor Govt

  14. Joyce on Gonski: I’m absolutely certain, good faith, Im not the Education Minister. They’re (WA, QLD, NT) Liberal Guvmints. Its the vibe man, the vibe, just trust me.

    A complete spiv.

  15. unfortunately, I think abbott has played the whole Gonski debacle well, if not masterfully. the “there will be no lies under a government I lead” is being lapped up by the media. hopefully it’ll come back to bite him, but he goes into next week’s senate vote on the carbon price with a killer slogan paraphrasing the Gillard ‘lie’ (ignoring that she said in the same interviews that she would pursue carbon pricing and it was a bi-partisan position in 2007).

    if I was cynical (me?), I’d say the whole flurry was orchestrated – Pyne does the dirty work and ‘honest’ Tony steps in to ‘fix’ it. his slogans today will work for him. expect a poll bounce – ABC tonight has/is giving the fibs 90% of air time to repeat the slogans. and it got the media off the trashing of relations with indonesia and china.

    PS. why do people use the ‘backflip’ analogy/metaphor instead of an (180 degree) about face – if you backflip you end up facing the same way as when you took off. Backflip is probably appropriate for the pyne/abbott position as I am sure their longer term game plan is to get funding to private schools and wind back public funding – still pointing in the same direction.

    PPS. for the Tories claiming gonski ‘rewards failure’, I think I have perfect analogy – road funding. You direct road funding to where there are problems, not to your best roads. Nobody sane (so you can keep spouting this tripe Sean and Turkey) claims this is ‘rewarding failure’

  17. [You direct road funding to where there are problems, not to your best roads. Nobody sane (so you can keep spouting this tripe Sean and Turkey) claims this is ‘rewarding failure’]

    Money will fix broken roads. It won’t fix the socially dysfunctional proles and their fat little ADHD offspring. If only money could! Even the liberals wouldn’t mind writing the cheque.

  18. Sustainable Future

    “unfortunately, I think abbott has played the whole Gonski debacle well”

    What a strange and perverse universe the Greens inhabit.

  19. @RT/567

    My what dirty little words you have there, perhaps someone should wash your mouth out with soap.

    The Irony in your post, there.

  20. ST

    [So no carbon tax moment for Abbott then…]

    Only in the sense that unlike Gillard, he really had been intending to breach an undertaking (and may yet do so). Also, he tried lying about it until even Bolt thought it ludicrous.

    I do recall that not three days ago you were welcoming Abbott abandoning Gonski as too expensive, pushing for surplus and calling anyone who thought Abbott would implement Gonski stupid for believing he would.

    Plainly, now, you believe he will, so where does that leave you?

    That’s one of the problems being a mindless mouthpiece for the spin of others. You never get the memos until they are out of date.

  21. [By the way, I don’t call you an idiot because you don’t know that. Most people don’t know that. I call you an idiot because of your loud-mouthed arrogant abusive tone about everything, particularly about things you know nothing about.]

    can we please have this Psephos quote entered into the PB hall of fame? I’m keeping it on my clipboard to cut and paste here on a daily basis.

  22. RT 567: I”t won’t fix the socially dysfunctional proles and their fat little ADHD offspring. If only money could!’

    Putting aside the eugenic hyperbole in the above, the scientific evidence is quite the opposite. Dollar for dollar. investing in early intervention for the most disadvantaged children is the best investment any government can make.

  23. Psephos:

    [Oh, is that all. Political journalists should stick to politics.]

    Well it is about zombies taing over the world, the evil* that lies within, and how the apparently less threatening visage of humans is often merely a mask for that evil.

    That could describe our politics pretty well.

    * term used merely in a literary sense. I’m not a believer in good or evil.

  25. The walking dead is great drama about survival after the end of the world as we know it. Try not to be zombie snows and give it a go. We have watched all seasons and I have crush on our hero Rick and the depend able ex bogan Daryl, the resourceful Glen, brave Maggie and kick arse Michonne not to mention papa Hershall. Is there anyone here who gets it?

  28. [if I was cynical (me?), I’d say the whole flurry was orchestrated – Pyne does the dirty work and ‘honest’ Tony steps in to ‘fix’ it.]

    My own view is the schools funding stuff was initiated by the govt to distract from its bumbling in foreign affairs.

  29. Turkey – in response to #567

    [I call you an idiot because of your loud-mouthed arrogant abusive tone about everything, particularly about things you know nothing about.]

    Psephos – if you ever put out a line of ‘murch’ please put in my order for the T-shirt AND tea towel with this quote.

    Turkey – you prove my point re: sane people.

    Rossmore – strange and perverse perhaps (better than ordinary and conventional), but you watch how abbott will use this over the next week. the ABC and murdoch media are all running the ‘no lies under a government I lead’ – it is a killer quote to use in next week’s debate, and abbott is being made to look like the hero to Pyne’s fall guy. It has distracted the media from a free-fall abbott was in. I’m willing to bet he gets a poll bounce from this.

  34. Sustainable Future .. 579 … and Im willing to bet there will be no poll bounce for Abbott from the latest Gonski debacle. Time will tell and Im happy to admit if I am wrong.

  35. On the Subject of empire sizes I make the following points.

    Tzar Nicholas II ruled over more land area that the Soviets because he had the Grand Duchies of Poland and Finland.

    Edward VI was King of no less land or people (more people in fact because of population increase) than his mother was Queen. In fact British Territory expanded after WWI because of the League of Nations Mandates.

  36. [if I was cynical (me?), I’d say the whole flurry was orchestrated – Pyne does the dirty work and ‘honest’ Tony steps in to ‘fix’ it.]

    No, I think that’s far too complex a ploy for this mob to manage. They just screwed it up. They did succeed in making Shorten look a bit flat-footed by announcing their patched-up fix just before QT, but within a few hours the Spakfilla was falling out of the cracks again.

  38. [ADHD is also a disorder, so RT IS really attacking those unable to defend themselves, new statistics. http://www.bostonglobe.com/lifestyle/health-wellness/2013/12/02/scary-new-statistics-about-adhd/PR6cghwQKfNFfwpEuX49lJ/story.html ]

    Gosh, you actually posted this to defend your position? I despair sometimes, I really do.

    One day the progressive revolution will see us all diagnosed with at least one disorder, and no-one will be deemed responsible for their behaviour at all. Oh for the glorious future.

  39. Is this claim true?

    “@daveyk317: Morgan poll ALP 51.5 LNP 48.5. Worst performing 1st term govt ever. You can’t fool all of the people all of the time #WorstGovernmentEver”

  40. Guytar – ABC late news and lateline made abbott look the hero (complete with reference to him being a ‘boxing champion’, no less (and not an untrained slugger who got a lucky KO against some fop fighting marquis of queensbury rules)). The Australian is spinning the ‘no lies’ quote as if it were churchillian. They will use this well in next week’s carbon price debate. Abbott the decisive and honest ‘fixer’ of poor decisions will be his look.

    The gonski decision mess probably was a mistake rather than orchestrated, but they are using it well, and I think it probably was in part announced to distract from other government crises. check tomorrow’s papers and electronic media to see how it spins.

  42. Turkey

    I diagnose you as having only two neurons and no synapses linking them.

    get help you sad sack.

    PS
    [I call you an idiot because of your loud-mouthed arrogant abusive tone about everything, particularly about things you know nothing about.]

  43. I hope that the Greens reject every aspect of Abbott’s repeal the carbon tax legislation and Labor only agrees to convert to the ETS asap.

    It’s very important now that Labor distinguishes itself from the Greens on carbon pricing.

  45. SF

    We shall see. What the papers say or the NewsCorp half hour is about to come on ABC local radio.

    I missed the Lateline but that is very different to Lyndal Curtis reporting earlier and from the 7 pm bulletin

  48. Centre

    The Greens want the vote fast so the new Senate only gets one chance to vote on the repeal legislation intend of two.

    The Greens will of course be voting no to Abbott and his legislation.
    This means it really is up to Labor what passes until new senate and probably a lot up to them then.

  49. I suggest you all follow my example and not read or respond to Turkey’s posts. He’s a piece of revolting fascist filth who ought to be ignored until he goes away.

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