Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

The first poll conducted since the government’s Gonski reversal finds, not unexpectedly, a sharp move to Labor.

The fortnightly Morgan poll, conducted from a sample of 2018 by face-to-face and SMS, provides further support for the recently recorded move against the Coalition, perhaps exacerbated by the Gonksi debacle. Labor is up no less than six points on the primary vote to 38.5%, with the Coalition down only a point to 41.5% off a below-par base from the previous poll. That leaves the Greens to fall 2.5% to 8.5%, with the Palmer United Party down 1.5% to 3.5% and others down one to 8%. This translates to a 51.5-48.5 lead to Labor on both respondent-allocated and 2013 election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

931 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. [BB
    I can’t work out what they are doing.
    PS Don’t waste red wine!]

    I licked it up. Don’t worry, I’m not stupid.

  2. [Labor vote to disallow the reintroduction of TVPs wins the day in the senate. Govt loses #auspol]

    There goes that karma bus again. 😀

  3. [Renting that ship to punt around near Christmas Island can’t be cheap.]

    The ship is cheap.

    50,000 illegals are expensive.

  4. @psephos 506

    Sometimes there are more important things than Politics, standing on principles being one of them. The reasons for temporary protection visas being bad and cruel policy are well documented and I do not feel the need to go through that debate over and over again. I am not a Labor supporter, but credit to them for standing up against bad policy on this occasion. Also as confessions said, have to love the carma bus. The current Government are getting a dose of the treatment they dished out and are actually having to realise that Government is not a rubber stamp for everything you wish to implement.

  5. [Senator Sarah Hanson Young’s motion to disallow TPV’s was successful. I think the final result was 36-26. Great result!]

    One minor little detail. Legislation must come from the House of Reps, not the Senate.

    SHYsters motion therefore a stunt.

  6. [The ship is cheap.

    50,000 illegals are expensive.]

    Only when you f*ck with them in the most stupid way. Let them settle and they soon have us eating good new food and they are paying bucket loads of tax. They also help ease out the greedy selfish destructive baby boomers bump.

    If only we weren’t so stupid racist and bl**dy scared of what was never a real terrorist threat and we’d saved billions.

  7. ST – TPVs were introduced by the executive under the provisions of a disallowable instrument, so the Senate can indeed vote them down.

  8. Hartcher having a go at the Tories … is this a first?

    What were the most damning indictments that Tony Abbott made of the two Labor governments that preceded him? That they suffered from ”chaos and dysfunction” and that they broke a core promise – they ”lied”.
    Yet this is exactly what Pyne delivered. He announced three iterations of the one policy in the space of a week. He threw thousands of schools into complete confusion about how much money they would have in a new school year just eight weeks away.
    He brought a storm of anger down on his government. All for what? An exercise in bad faith.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/christopher-pyne-the-minister-of-muddles-is-really-the-artful-dodger-20131202-2ym3q.html#ixzz2mJasMoPo

  9. Quiz question (the answer is probably a bit contentious its more of an opinion with evidence than black and white)

    Which leader has ruled over the
    1) largest total land area
    2) highest % of the population of the Earth at that time
    3) greatest total number of people

  10. mari

    Hadley can do and say whatever he wants on his 2GB but why do channel 9 employ him to call the games where I believe there are more accurate, is astonishing.

  11. [One minor little detail. Legislation must come from the House of Reps, not the Senate.]

    Wrong, idiot. The Senate can disallow these regulations.

    (By the way, I don’t call you an idiot because you don’t know that. Most people don’t know that. I call you an idiot because of your loud-mouthed arrogant abusive tone about everything, particularly about things you know nothing about.)

  12. Sorry to disappoint you Sean, but TPv’s were not implemented by legislation. They were implemented by regulation. They therefore can be disallowed by the Senate, and as a result of tonight’s vote, that’s exactly what has happened.

  13. Queen Victoria didn’t rule over anybody.

    1. Would be all Soviet leaders from Lenin to Gorbachev.
    2. Would be either a Roman emperor or a Chinese emperor.
    3. Would be all Chinese rulers since the fall of Rome, and maybe before that.

  14. Just watching Abbottabad on a-pac. Good golly me , as someone noticed earlier, he has had a good schmack in his left eye. Good enough to have a bit of bloodshot . As an ex rugger bugger to do that you need a bloody great thump. Must have happened a few days ago. Joe Hockey payback during the FIRB “negotiation” ? 😆

    [JOE HOCKEY is fond of telling his colleagues about the time Tony Abbott decked him on the rugby field while the pair were students at Sydney University]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-in-the-eye-of-the-leadership-storm-20091127-jwwc.html#ixzz2mJcoMpfP

  15. Liar Abbott and his lying cronies must be real happy the Labor PNG policy is working because none of their policies have been any thing near implemented.

    Even Morrison is giving out information outside his self imposed once week keep it secret interviews

  16. BK

    I’m pretty sure Queen Victoria ruled over the greatest number of people and also the greatest area, although I have also seen it claimed that Genghis Khan had the largest empire in terms of area.

  17. [And your little rant about 50,000 illegals is nonsense.]

    Explain to me why in Labors final budget they had a $3 Billion dollar PER YEAR blowout in asylum seeker costs?

    Thats $3 Billion dollars…. of my taxpayer dollars that could have built a lot of schools, hospitals and roads.

    Labors shame is it’s legacy.

  18. mikehilliard@515

    Macfarlane had throat cancer, so we try to avoid jokes about his voice.


    That would be a dad moment for me then.

    Wouldn’t be too worried. He is nicknamed ‘chainsaw’ due to that voice and it doesn’t seem to bother him as it is used without malice.

  19. [50,000 illegals are expensive.]

    Firstly, every person has a right to seek asylum, nothing illegal about it.

    Nor are they expensive if you put them to work. There are plenty of jobs in the regions that aren’t being done because Aussies don’t want to do them.

    Case in point Tassie scallops being shipped to Thailand for processing and then shipped back again because no one here wants to do the job even though a good worker can make $300/day.

    Let the asylum seekers in on the proviso they work in regional areas for say 10 years. Instead of spending billions torturing the buggers in Pacific hell holes, the government makes money, the country benefits by having essential if tedious work done and the regions have a big enough population base to keep their essential services.

  20. Psephos

    [1. Would be all Soviet leaders from Lenin to Gorbachev.
    2. Would be either a Roman emperor or a Chinese emperor.
    3. Would be all Chinese rulers since the fall of Rome, and maybe before that.]

    I think all of those are wrong.

    Genghis Khan definitely had a bigger empire than the Soviets, even if you don’t count Victoria.

    One of the Persian kings, either Darius, Xerxes or Ataxerxes ruled over almost 50% of the worlds population.

  21. [I’m pretty sure Queen Victoria ruled over the greatest number of people and also the greatest area.

    Queen Victoria didn’t rule over anyone, she was a titular head of state. Nobody “ruled” the British Empire as a single entity. By the time it reached its maximum extent, the Dominions were self-governing, and the Government of India was answerable to the Viceroy, not to the Cabinet in London.

  22. I see ST has incurred the wrath recently of two PB heavy weights, the moderator and Psephos. Will he retire gracefully or bounce back? Like his mentor Pyne Ive no doubt he’ll be back, spewing out the usual Tory thought bubbles.

  23. @Sean/537

    Because obviously that is the real cost of running a decent run Off shore Detention Centers.

    Where as, Coalition Party used numbers and over crowded Detention Centers, and that’s why Liberals had more riots when Howard was in Charge.

    And now we find Nauru and Manus Islands costs are rising.

    http://www.islandsbusiness.com/news/australia/3697/offshore-detention-costs-in-nauru-and-manus-rising/

    Your accusations about what Labor could have done with the money, is a load of crap, Sean, you say it could be used for Schools.

    BUT IT NEVER BLOODY IS.

    BUGGER OFF.

  24. Only the Liberals would plan to do away with the independent Climate Change Authority and the profit it is making while financing clean energy loans.

  25. [By the time it reached its maximum extent, the Dominions were self-governing, and the Government of India was answerable to the Viceroy, not to the Cabinet in London.]

    But the Viceroy was answerable to the PM and Queen.

  26. Even if the TPV issue was a matter of legislation rather than disallowable instrument (which as has been pointed out it isn’t), the proposition that legislation must always emanate from the Reps is of course also wrong. Section 53 of the Constitution prevents Bills for appropriations or imposing taxation from originating in the Senate or being amended there (although it can send messages requesting amendments. Otherwise:

    Except as provided in this section, the Senate shall have equal power with the House of Representatives in respect of all proposed laws.

  27. [@Sean/537

    Because obviously that is the real cost of running a decent run Off shore Detention Centers.]

    Nice try… Swans budget was written back in May 2013, well before Rudd knifed Gillard and introduced his pre-election PNG Fix.

    The huge blowouts in cost were due to the 25,000 or so per year people arriving and all the navy taxi services, accomodation and welfare benefits that entails

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