Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Another poll with 52-48 two-party preferred – but this time in the opposite direction.

The Australian reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, down from 53-47 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (down two), 35% for Labor (up three) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Bonham in comments observes that Newspoll is still using 2010 preferences, and believes the result may have been 51-49 off those of the September election. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down three to 42% and his disapproval is up four to 42%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 39% and up three to 27% (a considerably more modest result than his 51% and 30% from Nielsen). Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 46-30 to 44-33.

Tomorrow should bring the weekly Essential Research fortnightly aggregate, which we learned today has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36% but the Coalition two-party preferred lead steady at 53-47, and primary votes from the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night, which Channel Seven this evening reported as having the Coalition leading 51-49.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTel): The ReachTEL poll has the Coalition down on a month ago from to 45.4% to 43.8%, Labor down from 35.3% to 34.2%, the Greens up from 8.6% to 9.8%, the Palmer United Party up from 5.7% to 6.6% and others up from 4.9% to 5.7%. These fairly modest changes have resulted in a two-party preferred shift from 52-48 to the Coalition to 51-49.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research poll has both major parties up a point, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 45%, with the balance coming off rounding, the Greens and others being steady at 9% and 11% respectively. Two-party preferred is steady at 53-47. Also included are questions on foreign affairs, the most interesting findings of which are that 29% rate the government’s handling of the Indonesian relationship as good versus 42% for poor, and 49% expect relations with Indonesia to worsen under the new government compared with only 11% who think they will improve. Improvements are expected to worsen slightly with China and India, but to improve with English-speaking countries. A question on the importance of Australia’s various international relationships finds increases since early last month in the “very important” rating for every country except New Zealand. The new government also scores weakly on the question of “trust in the government’s handling of international relations”, with “no trust” the most popular of four responses at 35%. Respondents are not generally exercised about the thought of Australia spying on Indonesian leaders, which is supported by 39% and opposed by 23%. Other questions find 18% rating the new government’s performance as better than expected, 27% as worse and 47% “about what expected” and 15% favouring cuts to services and higher taxes to return the budget to surplus against 69% who would prefer delaying the return to surplus.

UPDATE 4 (Essential Research state polling): Essential Research has released results of state voting intention for the three largest states from its last month of polling, all of it well in line with what we’ve been seeing elsewhere recently:

• In New South Wales, the Coalition has a lead of 58-42, which compares with 64.2-35.8 at the election. Primary votes are 49% Coalition (down 2.1% on the election), 33% Labor (up 7.4%) and 8% Greens (down 2.3%).

• In Victoria, Labor leads 52-48 (51.6-48.4 to the Coalition at the election). Primary votes are 41% Coalition (down 3.8%), 38% Labor (up 1.8%) and 13% Greens (up 1.8%).

• In Queensland, the Liberal National Party leads 57-43 (62.8-37.2 at the election). Primary votes are 46% LNP (down 3.7%), 32% Labor (up 5.3%) and 7% Greens (down 0.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,061 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 5 of 42
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  1. [Frances Bell ‏@bellfrances
    Govt Leader of the House Louise Asher on whether parliament will run as normal today: “Who would know” #springst ]

  2. Actually the Bible could be something seriously worth studying at school.

    A thesis could be written on how such fiction has influenced and controlled the lives of billions throughout history.

    Abbott, follows what is written in the bible but thinks climate science is crap?

    And that’s the mindset that has been elected to our highest office…how sad!

  4. Jon faine went onto say that Morrison will lay the blame of not being able to stop the boats, at the feet of the ABC. The theory being that if the ABC had not published Snowden’s leaks, relations with Indonesia would be good. The Professor said that it is not the media’s fault for what is reported, but a failure of the Abbott govt to handle this matter diplomatically.

  7. SEAN – I thought you were only referring to Oxford qualifications. I got a first at Sydney Uni and only a 2.1 at Oxford. However, the BCL is generally regarded as a pretty tough course.

  8. [Well we know none of them were bright enough to go to Oxford, so just their university results from whatever low tier university they went to will be fine.]

    At GPS schools they hand out Rhodes Scholarships like serviettes at a sausage sizzle.

    All the talk is of Abbott’s winning a Rhodes Scholarship, but until now, not of the results of this honour.

    In fact he was given the nod to apply for one in the certainty that it would be granted. It was “all arranged”.

    As shown by his “gentleman’s” results, Abbott wasn’t so much “good enough to go to Oxford” as “connected enough to score a Rhodes scholarship”… with which he did nothing except win a boxing blue.

  9. You are too cruel. to pidgeons.

    Not familiar with the numbered grades for University results. Are small numbers good (like golf) or bad (like cricket)?

  10. guytaur

    After listening to this professor on ABC radio earlier, i believe that whilst the coalition is in power, the relationship with Indonesia will remain frosty. Unless of course, Abbott makes an Offer to Indonesia that cant be refused. No idea what that would be though.

  11. [However Abbott has just shown he does not trust the diplomatic bag and the ambassador.]

    And no mention of Foreign Affairs being involved at all.

  14. what another day and abbott still here?

    the little rat. he deserves to leave if only for palenstiian subterfuge.

    remember, after spying business (and morrison) made strongest attack on indonesia about return of boats. long may he die.

  15. If anyone on twitter wants to see beautiful photography plus clever comments follow @arveed .Ron is amazing I have posted some on PB. O/S tweeters love him

  16. [Don’t ask the question if you don’t know the answer. I got a 1.]

    Roxanna It was a silly question to ask here with so many holding great qualifications. Cheers for you for answering and for the 1 🙂

  18. [Actually the Bible could be something seriously worth studying at school.

    A thesis could be written on how such fiction has influenced and controlled the lives of billions throughout history.]

    Study of the various holy books is i think a very good thing. Regardless of religious affiliation they are very influential texts.

    Comparative Religion should be something seriously studied at lower high school level i think. Its certainly something that would help promote understanding of the world we live in, and other cultures influenced by other religions.

  20. Regarding Trott, I suspect he had to take anti-anxiety medication to stop having panic attacks and that was the reason he looked so sluggish against fast bowling. His reflexes just weren’t right.

  21. [Unless of course, Abbott makes an Offer to Indonesia that cant be refused. No idea what that would be though.]

    Transfer of Xmas and Cocos Is to the RI would probably do it Vic. 🙂

    AND, it would probably piss India off as well. Better value for the Abbott diplomatic dollar wot??

  22. [take anti-anxiety medication to stop having panic attacks]

    Facing Johnson would certainly give me a panic attack.

    I have never quite fathomed the reasoning behind staying in one spot when a hard leather wrapped object is hurtling towards me??

  24. 147 Brain test
    Firstly pleased to know I have a brain (perhaps baby sean should try?)
    I am equal — surprised as I am so dominantly left handed

  28. @Sean Tisme

    What infantile mutterings – asking to compare Shorten’s, Gillard’s, Rudd’s and Abbott’s old university grades. Anyone that quotes university grades as a sign of intelligence, obviously didn’t pay enough attention at university!! We judge Abbott on his current political actions and discourse. He was a Rhodes scholar, well done, but truth be I couldn’t give a shit, my concern is with his current behaviour while being PM. Seriously do you always wave the LNP blindly; or are you able to come up with an independent critical analysis of the politics (hint, you could have learnt the latter at uni).

  29. [192
    triton

    briefly, so you saw the dancer going anti-clockwise? I can only see her going clockwise, and I had a lot of trouble with the colours/words. I was 63:37 left.]

    no..clockwise…but if i try hard i can see her going anti-clockwise.

  30. RE brain test.
    I use both sides equally. Possible factor, when I commenced school in 1951 I was forced to adapt from being left handed to r.h.

  31. Thanks Dio #220 re Trott. Hope the poor fellow recovers – a friend of mine has experienced panic attacks lately and found it very debilitating

  36. According to this very limited test my brain is 50:50 – that explains a lot (does it mean I’m a renaissance man or just mediocre?). I’m right handed, but left footed – that should have been a clue, as well as a rationalist/ scientist who is into/does art, literature and music, a messy perfectionist, and is humanist/left-wing/compassionate and introvert who loves a party/social gathering. maybe best described as ‘All of the shop like mad-person’s shit’

    I’m not sure I agree with this limited test – from my experience of a large swag of siblings and nieces and nephews, the least creative and right-wing members of the family are strongly left-handed suggesting they’re right brained. Also note that getting one colour and word wrong (I did repetition of the test to see whether I got variable results – that’s the rationalist in me), sways your result by from 50:50 to 63:37 – seems a tad sensitive to me. It’d be interesting overlay it with an IQ test. As with some similar tests (e.g. Myer-Briggs) it suffers for not having categories such as ‘dumb’, ‘arsehole’, ‘self-centred prick’.

  38. The Ch10 late news last night credited a tweet from GhostWhoVotes for the Newspoll 2PP result in breaking news.

    I have not heard Ch10 attribute the source before, nor have I heard Lateline do it when I used to watch them.

    It’s funny that professional news gathering organisations are forced to rely on a ‘tweeter’ for breaking news.

  42. Can anyone … believe Abbott and Obama would have same closeness

    Very unlikely, but Tony Abbott and George W Bush would get on famously.

  45. I’ve always been puzzled as to who GhostWhoVotes could be (I mean in what position, not a name) who gets the results of a variety of polls commissioned by different companies before they are officially released.

  47. All these leftists like that dirty old washed up pisspot Mungo MacCallum are making the Indonesia situation look far easier to deal with than it actually has been. If Labor had been in power when this thing broke then they would not have done much better.

    This was a tantrum which Indonesia was always going to have, regardless of what Australia did (short of a complete grovelling apology which not even Julia Gillard would have been weak enough to give).

    It is like I said before: The bludgers much prefer having their party in oppposition. It is always much easier to criticise.

  48. Has anyone asked Pyne to describe (without bluster, slogans or name-calling his predecessor) the ways in which the education reforms are unworkable and chaotic? Can he nominate the NSW schools that have had their funding reduced as a result of the reforms? Can he show how he worked that out? Why hasn’t the NSW Education Minister been screaming blue murder over these alleged deficiencies, in the way that he is now about this apparent attempt on Pyne’s part to renege on the deal ?

    Pyne could be asked in parliament but that won’t elicit an answer. So journalists need to ask him. A non-answer means he’s bullshitting.

  49. The Idiot should have sent that diplomat extraordinaire, Julie Bishop, with the letter to SBY and everything would now be honky-dory.

  50. [It’s funny that professional news gathering organisations are forced to rely on a ‘tweeter’ for breaking news.]

    You should go and purchase the AFR or the SMH if you want to know the results of polls, according to Phil Coorey.

    When media organizations commission, publish and pay for polls, they have exclusive rights to not only propagate them, but to be the first to analyse them, Coorey seems to be arguing.

    Ghost Who Votes is not authorised to publicize polls before their publication embargo, so therefore anyone who reads Ghost’s stuff is taking a free ride with Fairfax or News’ money, so Coorey reckons.

    I wondered last night whether Ghost was some kind of senior-ish politician, delivered the poll results as a courtesy in time to make a comment, if required.

    Someone else said he or she may have been a sub-editor for the organization (forgotten its name) that subs for both Fairfax and News.

    It has to be someone who sights both Nielsen and News’ polls during the embargo period. It may be several people, with one name, or acting on behalf of one person.

    That would widen it to, say, printers at either organization who set the type or make up the pages well before publication. Or the sources could be journalists at various media organizations. Once they have spotted the poll results, a discreet phone call to Central Ghost, from the Fairfax source or the News source, of the television network source, and there you have it.

    I don’t believe Ghost has ever gotten the results wrong (except for typos), but you’d have thought a trap could be set for him or her by seeding false (false) numbers to “suspects”, until they turn up in a tweet. Then you’d have your leaker.

    But because Ghost’s numbers have never been wrong, one would assume that Ghost only sees valid results, and that therefore Ghost is someone sufficiently too senio to mess about with, or too junior to bother with.

    Which brings us back to just who Ghost is: I don’t have a clue.

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