The Australian reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, down from 53-47 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (down two), 35% for Labor (up three) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Bonham in comments observes that Newspoll is still using 2010 preferences, and believes the result may have been 51-49 off those of the September election. More to follow.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down three to 42% and his disapproval is up four to 42%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 39% and up three to 27% (a considerably more modest result than his 51% and 30% from Nielsen). Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 46-30 to 44-33.
Tomorrow should bring the weekly Essential Research fortnightly aggregate, which we learned today has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36% but the Coalition two-party preferred lead steady at 53-47, and primary votes from the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night, which Channel Seven this evening reported as having the Coalition leading 51-49.
UPDATE 2 (ReachTel): The ReachTEL poll has the Coalition down on a month ago from to 45.4% to 43.8%, Labor down from 35.3% to 34.2%, the Greens up from 8.6% to 9.8%, the Palmer United Party up from 5.7% to 6.6% and others up from 4.9% to 5.7%. These fairly modest changes have resulted in a two-party preferred shift from 52-48 to the Coalition to 51-49.
UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research poll has both major parties up a point, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 45%, with the balance coming off rounding, the Greens and others being steady at 9% and 11% respectively. Two-party preferred is steady at 53-47. Also included are questions on foreign affairs, the most interesting findings of which are that 29% rate the government’s handling of the Indonesian relationship as good versus 42% for poor, and 49% expect relations with Indonesia to worsen under the new government compared with only 11% who think they will improve. Improvements are expected to worsen slightly with China and India, but to improve with English-speaking countries. A question on the importance of Australia’s various international relationships finds increases since early last month in the “very important” rating for every country except New Zealand. The new government also scores weakly on the question of “trust in the government’s handling of international relations”, with “no trust” the most popular of four responses at 35%. Respondents are not generally exercised about the thought of Australia spying on Indonesian leaders, which is supported by 39% and opposed by 23%. Other questions find 18% rating the new government’s performance as better than expected, 27% as worse and 47% “about what expected” and 15% favouring cuts to services and higher taxes to return the budget to surplus against 69% who would prefer delaying the return to surplus.
UPDATE 4 (Essential Research state polling): Essential Research has released results of state voting intention for the three largest states from its last month of polling, all of it well in line with what we’ve been seeing elsewhere recently:
• In New South Wales, the Coalition has a lead of 58-42, which compares with 64.2-35.8 at the election. Primary votes are 49% Coalition (down 2.1% on the election), 33% Labor (up 7.4%) and 8% Greens (down 2.3%).
• In Victoria, Labor leads 52-48 (51.6-48.4 to the Coalition at the election). Primary votes are 41% Coalition (down 3.8%), 38% Labor (up 1.8%) and 13% Greens (up 1.8%).
• In Queensland, the Liberal National Party leads 57-43 (62.8-37.2 at the election). Primary votes are 46% LNP (down 3.7%), 32% Labor (up 5.3%) and 7% Greens (down 0.5%).
lizzie
Posted Tuesday, November 26, 2013 at 9:13 am | Permalink
AA
In a secular society, study of comparative religions would be more useful and lead to understanding instead of fighting. I
==========================================
Abbott is not pushing for comparative study of religions.
He is advocating that the Bible and only the Bible be taught in schools
triton
Weak indeed.
Off topic.
I want Napthine to release the business plan for the East West tunnel. I am not at all convinced so far as to the merits of this project
SEAN – Actually, I got a 2.1
Sean – it’s not a “B”. It’s a “C” at best.
Sean Tisme
Posted Tuesday, November 26, 2013 at 9:22 am | Permalink
So it seems that
Todays Anti-Abbott rant is that he only got a B Average at Oxford University.
=================================================
Sean off in his own little world again today.
He’s the only poster mentioning Abbott’s time at Uni.
Can the Sydney Leftist Herald now please post the Oxford University results of:
1. Gillard
2. Rudd
3. Shorten
Well we know none of them were bright enough to go to Oxford, so just their university results from whatever low tier university they went to will be fine.
I won’t hold my breath though… this is Fairfax afterall.
AA
Shows what a narrow and prejudiced thinker Abbott is, not fit to be PM of a diverse society.
victoria
The more you learn about the Napthine transport mess, the less you will agree with him. It will disrupt and destroy something like about seven inner Melbourne suburbs.
No religion should be taught in schools. Students should only be taught about religion.
Let the belief or not be up to the churches. No enforced teaching. Doing so puts you into the same principles as the Taliban.
It also shows a lack of confidence in the said religion of attracting believers in its own right.
SEAN – Tony wasn’t bright enough to go to Oxford so he got in by persuading some old fogies in Sydney he had “leadership”.
Just heard Pyne being interviewed on Radio National. Apparently several states, including Liberal States, plus the Catholic education system, signed up to a system that was chaotic and unworkable. I call bullshit. The Liberals either want to twist the education reforms to fit their ideology (so less needs based, more privatised) and/or wound back and eventually dismantled.
ST
Academic performance has little to do with the rat cunning needed to be a successful politician. Discuss.
Sprocket @ 109: The story of General Leahy’s cloak and dagger trip to Indonesia is really quite funny. Such a nice gesture.
Of course, the gesture which really needed to be made last week was the termination of any Liberal Party or government work from Ambassador Textor. But that would have cost Mr Abbott personally, rather than costing the taxpayers, as the General’s trip undoubtedly did.
One of Abbott’s best subjects was the politics of developing countries.
*blinks*
@GrogsGamut: Good speech by RBA Dept Gov on productivity – With a focus on infrastructure http://t.co/bt6dDEawOV
It seems I am left-brained, which makes sense for a pedant who watches legal dramas.
Tony only got a 2.2 at Oxford.
Tony Abbott also got a couple of Boxing ‘Blues’. He should have stuck to pugilism, he’s clearly well suited. He coulda been a contender.
pedant
It is noteworthy that Abbott used the military for a diplomatic mission.
lizzie
I live in a northeast suburb, and will not be personally impacted by this tunnel, but what i have heard so far would inidcate the ruination of inner Melbourne suburbs such as Parkville and Carlton
We have had four changes of government in my voting life. Hawke 83, Howard 96, Rudd 07 and the Monkey in 2013.
I believe the only PM to go backwards in the polls within the first 100 days of government was in fact Abbott.
badcat
Posted Tuesday, November 26, 2013 at 8:50 am | Permalink
Defence Abuse Response Taskforce head Len Roberts-Smith surprised by range, nature of complaints
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-26/defence-abuse-taskforce-head-surprised-allegations/5116230
——————————————-
The head of the taskforce looking into abuse in the Defence Force says he has been very surprised at the extent and nature of the complaints.
I think he should also look into the abuse OF the Defence Force, by one Scrotum Morriscum.
In an interview with the Herald Sun Mr Abbott also said:
YOUNG people should be alerted to the long-term health dangers of binge drinking.
A STRONGER police presence was needed in places where street violence was common.
THERE should be better choices for women considering abortion.
OBESITY should be tackled not through “creating a nanny state” but through education to encourage adults to be more responsible for themselves and their children.
PEOPLE should have more children, and the baby bonus should not be means-tested.
PENALTY rates for employees who work on weekends or public holidays were a matter for workers and employers to agree upon, “subject to a reasonable safety net”.
==================================================
The true agenda is now being revealed.
The people were lied to by Abbott in the election.
baby robot sean 145 plus other rants be careful you may bust a hernia BTW you, or better still get an adult to look that word up for you 😀 as you really only are programmed to know slogans
triton:
I came out equal.
pedant@162
One the RI would have seen through immediately.
murdoch was good enough to put it in his paper to confirm it.
All just another stunt which once again draws the ADF deeper into politics. Leahy being retired doesn’t change things at all.
Tisme
Abbott’s and idiot at a slightly lower degree than you.
Abbott and his university achievements?
Well, some obviously get through the net, and wow did that monkey get through the net.
This Newspoll result does tend to confirm my suspicion that the Neilsen was a bit of out outlier – the Newspoll is more in line with Morgan, Essential et al (though the 56-44 Newspoll of a few weeks ago also has “rogue” stamped all over it).
What’s most interesting about these post-election polls is the singular lack of honeymoon bounce. It suggests that Abbott only really won the election because enough voters were so keen to toss out a disfunctional Labor government. He comes to office with no residual goodwill, and hardly any political capital. This does not auger well for them.
I’ve thought since the election that Abbott’s apparently deliberate strategy of trying to slow down the political news cycle (while laudable, and frankly a relief after the last two years) has not worked for him. A new government really needs to try and shape the agenda to their own ends, but instead the political news has been all about rorting, secrecy and hamfisted diplomacy. With Christmas fast approaching, there is a real risk that it might already be too late to change perceptions.
Of course, in the words of MacMillan (“events, dear boy, events”), things can happen which can work to the advantage of the government (if handled adroitly, admittedly something this government hasn’t shown to much ability in that regard so far). Howard’s transformation in the wake of Tampa and 9/11 (which of course was really 11/9) is a case in point.
guytaur @ 167: Retired military, to be fair.
I do think it’s more than just slightly interesting that the DT article reported the prominent role played in the drafting of Mr Abbott’s letter by his “national security advisers”. One might have thought that by this stage, it would be Indonesia experts who would be leading the process. Also interesting that the article said that the PM had played a major role in the drafting.
I guess if it all turns to more custard, we will know who deserves the blame. I wonder if the DT story came from the PMO, or out of the bureaucracy?
[The Liberals either want to twist the education reforms to fit their ideology (so less needs based, more privatised) and/or wound back and eventually dismantled.]
Steve I was trawling my Twitter feed last night and saw one between Kate Ellis and Samantha Maiden. Maiden said Pyne ranting about Gonski has nothing to do with funding but is simply to trash Gillard’s legacy. Sounds about right.
pedant
Yes. However Abbott has just shown he does not trust the diplomatic bag and the ambassador.
AussieAchmed
Posted Tuesday, November 26, 2013 at 8:59 am | Permalink
.
.
.
Take that mandate(sic) that Liberal trolls rant about and stick it in a place the sun don’t shine.
—————————————————
Mate, trouble is, so many Liberals are convinced the sun actually emanates from their arse.
Pyne’s education rant is all about funding – he’s lying!
From east – at least clifton hill, collingwood, fitzroy, carlton, parkville, royal park.
The whole ambience of those suburbs AND ROYAL PARK will be lost.
A mission so veiled in secrecy and subterfuge its every detail is described in the newspapers virtually the next day…
It’s been suggested before that the intelligence agencies are seriously peeved with this government. The fact that every minor detail of Leahy’s Operation Impossible is out there already adds weight to that.
my 182 to victoria. Sorry.
lizzie
Losing Royal park is particularly disturbing
AussieAchmed
Posted Tuesday, November 26, 2013 at 9:06 am | Permalink
BIBLE classes should be compulsory so children have a fundamental understanding of Christianity on leaving school, federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says.
—————————————–
If rAbbit is an example of christianity then this is a very bad idea. We have way too much corruption in Parliament already.
YOUNG people should be alerted to the long-term health dangers of binge drinking. – fair enough
A STRONGER police presence was needed in places where street violence was common. – ditto. Motherhood statement.
THERE should be better choices for women considering abortion. – what does this mean? Looks like code, most likely to direct women away from abortion and/or make abortion more difficult to obtain.
OBESITY should be tackled not through “creating a nanny state” but through education to encourage adults to be more responsible for themselves and their children. – tobacco companies think the same about lung cancer. So there should be no/minimal Government involvement in addressing that particular issue (unlike abortion). Why doesn’t he just say that?
PEOPLE should have more children, and the baby bonus should not be means-tested. encourage ‘people of quality’ to have children. Disdain for the ‘Age of entitlement’ only applies to the poor or those who would never vote Liberal.
PENALTY rates for employees who work on weekends or public holidays were a matter for workers and employers to agree upon, “subject to a reasonable safety net”. Wages are too high and need to be wound back. I don’t recall Tony mentioning that during the election campaign.
victoria
When conservative thinkers see parkland, they see undeveloped areas for profit-taking. Kennett, for example, sold off land that had been donated for special purposes. The donors would have been turning in their graves.
[147
confessions
For a bit of fun, which side of your brain is dominant?
http://en.sommer-sommer.com/braintest/%5D
Right sided – 2:1
[@FlatEarthGang 19m
Arguing with Pyne is like playing chess with a pigeon, He knocks down all the pieces, shits on the board then struts about as if he’s won.]
Surprise No 32. Abbott announces that all children should attend Bible classes. He did not the sacred texts of other religions.
The Abbott Opposition and now Government has a sort of schizophrenia that enables them to ‘separate’ what they do domestically from international consequences.
This is particularly good timing domestically. It reminds the islamophobes and the Tea Party mob that Abbott is one of them, he really is. With a bit a luck there will be a bonus: there will be blowback from outraged follows of the Torah, the Koran, etc, etc, etc.
The problem is this. The view from across the Timor Sea is that this is yet another political gesture from a guy who encourages islamophobes (Bernardi and Sex Appeal) in his Party Room and who regularly consorts with burka-bashing islamophobic shock jocks one of whom was implicated in encouraging and praise an islamophobic riot.
What the Abbott Government, and a hapless Australia, will learn is that these circles close. We are having an early taste of this in terms of the Indonesia response on co-operation.
Similarly, the willfully wrecking role the Abbott Government played in the Warsaw COP also starts a circle that will close in many ways. This wrecking behaviour goes down extremely well with the denialists in the Coalition Party Room. Extremely well. But around 200 nations were at first nonplussed, and then angered, at the puerile behaviour and wreck-the-joint attitude of the Australian delegation. This starts another set of circles that will come home to roost. The first circle is that of the effects of climate change itself. The second is the loss of international prestige. The third is that, as the pressures to internationalize climate change action increase, and that is inevitable, no-on much is going to give a stuff what Australia thinks, says and does. Abbott is dealing us off the table.
The pattern is clear. When it comes to making a choice between personal political power and our national interst, Abbott will always, and often destructively, choose the former.
It is why Abbott is not fit to be prime minister.
briefly, so you saw the dancer going anti-clockwise? I can only see her going clockwise, and I had a lot of trouble with the colours/words. I was 63:37 left.
Listening to Professor Damian Kingsbury from Deakin Uni talking with Jon Faine on ABC 774.
He has spoken to people close to indonesian govt. They say the letter will not be enough to repair relations with them. It is now going to require Abbott going to Jakarta to speak directly with SBY. Even then, he believes the relationship is not going to be back on track until the elections next September, and even then the new President will not be friendly to oz. With respect to cooperation on asylum seekers. He believes it is beyond repair.
He said that this was a total diplomatic failure by Abbott
[YOUNG people should be alerted to the long-term health dangers of binge drinking.
A STRONGER police presence was needed in places where street violence was common.
THERE should be better choices for women considering abortion.
OBESITY should be tackled not through “creating a nanny state” but through education to encourage adults to be more responsible for themselves and their children.
PEOPLE should have more children, and the baby bonus should not be means-tested.
PENALTY rates for employees who work on weekends or public holidays were a matter for workers and employers to agree upon, “subject to a reasonable safety net”.]
Abbott is running scared. He set a paddock full of hares running.
briefly
Posted Tuesday, November 26, 2013 at 9:56 am | Permalink
[147
confessions
For a bit of fun, which side of your brain is dominant?
http://en.sommer-sommer.com/braintest/
Right sided – 2:1
=================================================
Apparently I use mine equally. Not sure what that means
Hugo – don’t think many would disagree with what you have said.
I don’t think Abbott is stuffed just yet, but the 3/4% of the electorate which swung its vote over are yet to give up on him.
Like any new pair of shoes, you give them two or three outings before you thrown them out as a bad fit.
The Oz electorate was under no illusion with Abbott but it was tired with Labor’s internal lack of discipline – and, who can blame it?
This Abbott government is no shiny model off the showroom floor but the Howard model “detailed” to pass muster.
Unlike many new governments, it came with no real policies other than some 5 point pamphlet – but it was enough at the time.
The unfortunate thing for Abbott is that he was disliked and not trusted as a LOTO and he has no political capital to speak of. He is from the current poll losing ground on what little rope he was given at the time of the election.
It is for this reason his backers such as Murdoch and the Big End of town have been desperate since Day 1 to paint him as a “changed man”. He knows this too.
Virtually his first words were “I am for Australia now not just my tribe” or wtte.
This is a total crock of course, but his minders, from his foray to Indonesia and every other event yet, when they can afford to let him loose, is to stress his ‘statesmanlike’ qualities.
The Oz electorate, despite all, are not that stupid and they know they have a pretty poor leader – but, at this point, will stick with him to give him a “fair go”.
There will be a tipping point. Howard got lucky and the “events” you talk about are a reality in politics.
So far, if I were a Tory, I would be dispirited on how poorly my man is going.
“events, dear boy, events”
John Howard had a few, which he was able to turn to his advantage. In some cases this was by handling them very well (Port Arthur, East Timor) and others by clever politics and dark arts (Tampa).
A STRONGER police presence was needed in places where street violence was common.
————————————–
And I seem to remember Abbott saying something around it being the victims fault for going to areas where violence is known to happen
lizzie
[Arguing with Pyne is like arguing with a pigeon.]
You are too cruel.
[149
Sean Tisme
Posted Tuesday, November 26, 2013 at 9:22 am | PERMALINK
So it seems that
Todays Anti-Abbott rant is that he only got a B Average at Oxford University.
Tony only got a 2.2 at Oxford.
Oh what did you get??
Actually scratch that, what mark did you get at any university?]
Don’t ask the question if you don’t know the answer. I got a 1.