Seat of the week: Curtin

Despite bearing the name of one of Labor’s greatest heroes, and covering his old home turf of Cottesloe, the Perth seat of Curtin is blue in tooth and claw. Julie Bishop has held the seat since she unseated a conservative independent in 1998.

Blue and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the Liberal and Labor parties. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Julie Bishop’s seat of Curtin covers Perth’s most affluent and Liberal-friendly areas, from Mosman Park and Cottesloe north along the coast to the southern part of Scarborough, and along the northern shore of the Swan River through the prestige suburbs of Peppermint Grove and Dalkeith. An area of relative Labor strength is provided by the area immediately west of the city. The electorate was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, prior to which the Perth metropolitan area had been divided in highly variable fashion between Perth and Fremantle, with each consistently accounting for some of the area of modern Curtin. Curtin was originally limited to Perth’s inner west, with Fremantle continuing to extend up the coast as far as City Beach, before acquiring its coastal orientation with the redistribution of 1955. Fremantle was thereafter concentrated more to the south of the river, although its present northern limit at the suburban boundary of North Fremantle and Mosman Park was not established until 1984.

Despite bearing the name of a Labor Party legend, Curtin has been a blue-ribbon Liberal seat since its creation, being held first by prime ministerial contender and future Governor-General Paul Hasluck, and then by Victor Garland, a minister in the McMahon and Fraser governments. Garland’s resignation in early 1981 led to a preselection brawl in which the then Premier, Sir Charles Court, marshaled forces behind Allan Rocher to thwart Fred Chaney’s ambition to move from the Senate to the House, which he would eventually realise when he became member for Pearce in 1990. Rocher was defeated for preselection ahead of the 1996 election by Ken Court, son of the aforementioned Charles and brother of Richard, who was then Premier. This greatly displeased the newly reinstalled federal Liberal leader, John Howard, who did little to assist Court’s election campaign or to dispel the conception that he owed his preselection to controversial party powerbroker Noel Crichton-Browne. Rocher was thus easily able to retain his seat as an independent on Labor preferences, while a similar story played out in the northern suburbs seat of Moore.

Curtin returned to the Liberal fold in 1998 when Rocher was defeated by a new Liberal candidate, Julie Bishop, who had previously been a managing partner at law firm Clayton Utz. Bishop’s early career progress within the Howard government was reckoned to have been constrained by her ties to Peter Costello, and in the wake of the Coalition’s 2001 state election defeat she signed on to an abortive scheme to move into state politics to succeed Richard Court as Liberal leader. She eventually won promotion to Ageing Minister in 2003, and attained cabinet rank as Education, Science and Training Minister in January 2006. Reflecting the continuing strong performance of the party’s Western Australian branch, she was elevated to the deputy leadership in the wake of the 2007 election defeat. Her success in maintaining that position under three leaders reportedly led internal critics to dub her “the cockroach”, although dissatisfaction with her performance as Shadow Treasurer caused her to be reassigned to foreign affairs in January 2009. She retained the portfolio throughout the remaining years in opposition, further serving in the shadow portfolio of trade after the 2010 election, and was confirmed as Foreign Minister with the election of the Abbott government in September 2013.

UPDATE: Channel Seven has reported the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night found only 28% believe the government’s new policies to stop boat arrivals were working versus 49% who don’t, while 56% say the government should announce boat arrivals when they happen. Last night it was reported that 53% think the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and that 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed. It appears Channel Seven are sitting on voting intention numbers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,517 comments on “Seat of the week: Curtin”

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  2. William

    I am watching channel 7. The Reachtel poll relates to State Vic.

    Better premier

    Daniel Andrews 52.5
    Denis Napthine. 47.5

    They did not actually give 2pp.
    It was broken down
    Labor greens
    Coalition
    Pup party

    Sorry could not get breakdown

  8. Tony Abbott has been snubbed by Vladimir Putin at a leaders’ summit in Indonesia after the Australian prime minister arrived late for a meeting and was shown “an iron curtain”.

    Aside from arriving seven minutes late, Mr Abbott missed an informal gathering before the summit at which Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono picked up a guitar and led an impromptu rendition of “Happy Birthday” to celebrate Mr Putin’s 61st birthday.

    At today’s opening session of the Asia Pacific leaders’ summit in Bali, the Russian president apparently deliberately avoided Mr Abbott and ignored him when they were seated next to each other.

    A senior official attached to another national delegation said: “There was no engagement, no acknowledgement, an iron curtain.”

  13. [Kiera ‏
    Introducing the charming Liberal MP Wyatt Roy who is happy to slag off people over 50… #AusPol via @wrb330 pic.twitter.com/cNdxVSrdiF ]

  16. William

    There was nothing on the New South Wales version. Endured 29 ads and promos for this nil return.

    Greater love hath no Bludger.

  17. Iran-USA and others reach nucleur agreement
    _____________________________
    In am historic agreement the US and Iran have reached a two way agreement which will see sanctions eased and a stop to nucleir enrichment beyond a set level

    The agreement means a major defeat for Israel and it’s powerful Lobby in the US which sought to stop any peace agreement and wanted a US air strike or a war on Iran with all the dire conseguences
    In The US there is no longer any wish for war in the M East…least of al to meet the demands of Natanyahu and the Israeli miilitary ….

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-24/iran-reaches-deal-with-world-powers-on-nuclear-program/5113460

  18. lizzie

    Posted Sunday, November 24, 2013 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

    Kiera ‏
    Introducing the charming Liberal MP Wyatt Roy who is happy to slag off people over 50… #AusPol via @wrb330 pic.twitter.com/cNdxVSrdiF
    ========================================================

    Liberal twerp

    his bludger name wouldn’t be Sean?

  19. [That little turd forgets he will be old and crippled.]

    The raising of the retirement age is inevitable at some point in the future. Labor is just as likely as the coalition to be in power when it is done.

  20. [LABOR is calling for direct discussion and negotiation to resolve the diplomatic row with Indonesia, as it enters its second week with no sign of easing.

    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten says the exchange of letters between Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Prime Minister Tony Abbott is a good start but the stand-off over spying allegations needs to be fixed.]

    http://www.themercury.com.au/news/breaking-news/labor-says-fix-indon-sooner-not-later/story-fnj6ehgr-1226767233778

  24. [LABOR is calling for direct discussion and negotiation to resolve the diplomatic row with Indonesia]

    If my reading of this is correct, then Labor hasn’t said that Tony Abbott should admit to the spying and apologise for it. Is that correct? I wonder what the bludgers thnk of that?

  26. In same article i linked above

    [This is only Australia’s most recent argument with Indonesia and former coalition foreign minister Alexander Downer says it’s nothing like the freeze following the 1999 East Timor crisis.

    With careful diplomacy, he says, it could be resolved in a few weeks]

  28. The Chinese self-proclaimed air defence zone is a worry – particularly so when we have US troops stationed in Australia, US ships ported in Australia, US military equipment stored in Australia and US spy bases located in Australia.

    We also have one of Australia’s most dangerous prime ministers in history vis-a-vis a decision to go to war.

    It is hard to see the upside from any of this.

    Oddly enough, and to Australia’s benefit, the Indonesians, having murdered around 100,000 Indonesian ethnic chinese without a single person being tried, let alone convicted, are not at all likely to pal up with China.

  29. victoria

    [With careful diplomacy, he says, it could be resolved in a few weeks]

    If it is Abbott, Morrison and Bishop on that job…

  30. 30,000 child care workers will lose their pay rise.

    16,000 of the wealthiest will now pay no tax of superannuation earnings over $100,000 a year.

    Typical Liberal thinking = fcuk over the low paid to fund the wealthy

  33. I would genuinely like to know whether any of this Government’s economic policies are ‘fresh’ in the sense that they represent a departure from anything at all that has been tried in the past.

  34. mari

    Mr Roy was working on the ideas for elderly participation in the community – the funding withdrawn by Abbott’s lot. Could be forgiven for wondering what young Roy contributeed.

  37. Boerwar

    Posted Sunday, November 24, 2013 at 6:40 pm | Permalink

    AA

    Abbott/Hockey borrowing will push interest payments to over $0million a year

    I will believe that when I see it.
    ============================================
    that should have read $100 million…sorry…must read before hitting button

  39. The current age limits cannot be sustained, IMHO. Life expectancy continues to increase.

    I am not sure about the appropriate policy responses.

  41. Carr criticising the secrecy of Australia’s change of stance re: Israeli continuing to construct housing on Palestinian territory.

    The Australian Council of Jewry has welcomed the Government change.

  42. The vote on settlements is largely symbolic, but shouldn’t our Govt have had the decency to put out a press release announcing their change? Why do we need to hear it from the UN?

  43. [I remember when a PM of Australia would stand before a press conference & answer every question! ]

    That would be just about every other PM. And I believe Keating hung around for ages answering questions…

  44. Boerwar

    It may be true that current pensionable ages cannot be sustained. But when men of 40+ are unable to get employment because they are “too old”, a huge shift in the culture will be needed if 60 yr olds can get jobs.

  46. I wonder how Wyatt feels about the $1 million or so of taxpayers money being paid each year to Howard so he can maintain an office, car and travel first class

  47. While the coalition has its hands full with Indonesia, things are hotting up between between South Korea and Japan (not to mention China and Japan). This NYT article is written from the US perspective but equally concerns Australia.

    [In the courtly world of diplomacy, the meeting between Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and President Park Geun-hye of South Korea was something of a shock.

    Mr. Hagel was in the region to try to revitalize America’s faltering “pivot” to Asia and had one especially pressing request for Ms. Park: to try to get along better with Japan. The steely Ms. Park instead delivered a lecture about Japan’s “total absence of sincerity” over the suffering that imperial Japan caused Korea in the last century and finished with a request of her own: that Washington force Tokyo to behave…

    Ms. Park went so far as bringing China into the fracas, even as the Japanese and Chinese feuded over disputed islands. She asked China’s leader during a summit meeting to erect a monument to a Korean national hero who assassinated the first prime minister of Japan for his role in the Japanese colonization of Korea. The Chinese complied.]

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/24/world/asia/a-growing-chill-between-south-korea-and-japan-creates-problems-for-the-us.html?ref=international-home&_r=0

  50. [The raising of the retirement age is inevitable at some point in the future. Labor is just as likely as the coalition to be in power when it is done.]

    The Coalition don’t like making hard decisions so it is much more likely to be done by labor.

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