Essential Research and Morgan are still the only pollsters back in the game, and both have shifted slightly to the Coalition this week. The regular Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition lead up from 52-48 to 53-47, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (up one), 34% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Monthly personal ratings have Tony Abbott up five to an all-time high of 46% approval and down one on disapproval to 35%, and with a 41-22 lead over Bill Shorten (who doesn’t get his own personal ratings yet) as preferred prime minister. There are particularly large gender gaps in these results, Abbott having a net approval of plus 14 among men and zero among women, and leading Shorten 48-21 among men and 35-23 among women.
Pleasingly, this week’s supplementary questions look at electoral reform. A question on the Senate voting system offered respondents the option of keeping the present system (a surprisingly high 32%), introduce New South Wales-style optional preferential above-the-line voting (33%) or look into other options (20%). There also seems to be a benign attitude to the Senate’s crop of successful micro-party candidates, who despite having mostly scored very few votes are rated “good for democracy” by 36% and “bad for democracy by 26%, with 17% opting for no difference. Support for compulsory voting remains very high at 71% with only 25% opposed, closely reflecting results of a comprehensive Australian National University survey on attitudes to electoral reform from August. Essential also features a semi-regular question on same-sex marriage, with results essentially unchanged from May: support and opposition are both down a point, to 57% and 31% respectively.
The latest Morgan multi-mode poll, which will be reporting fortnightly for the rest of the year at least, is a better result for the Coalition than the last, having their primary vote up 1.5% to 43.5%, Labor’s down 2.5% to 34.5%, the Greens up a point to 10%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, Labor’s 50.5-49.5 lead from a fortnight ago has turned into a Coalition lead of 51.5-48.5, which aligns precisely with my own calculation based on modelling of preference flows from the recent election. Morgan is also publishing previous-election preference figures, but since they have made the curious determination to grant all PUP and KAP votes to the Coalition until the AEC makes available breakdowns from the election, they are of no value at present.
In other news, I had a post-mortem on Labor’s remarkable Miranda by-election victory in New South Wales in Crikey yesterday, available to subscribers only.
UPDATE (25/10): Morgan has published results from an online poll conducted on the weekend from a sample of 1169, which limits itself to the question of preferred prime minister. Despite the similar methodology, it’s considerably better for Bill Shorten than the Essential poll, putting Tony Abbott’s lead at 40-36 compared with Essential’s 41-22. Abbott’s lead is entirely down to those aged over 50, with Shorten leading in each of the three younger cohorts. Abbott’s lead is at 43-36 among men and 38-36 among women. Qualitative findings are also featured, which you can read here.
Socialist is the Tea Party mantra, of course Abbott is going to copy it.
Ross Gittens, not holding back.
Clear concise no nonsense –
[ Let me make a fearless prediction: big business will get no cut in the rate of company tax in Tony Abbott’s first term, and probably not in a second term, either. What you see before you now is all you’re likely to get.
I doubt whether Abbott will break his promise to cut the company tax rate by 1.5 percentage points to 28.5 per cent from July 2015. But, of course, big businesses will get nothing from that. They’ll be paying the new 1.5 per cent levy on big company profits to help finance Abbott’s more generous paid parental leave scheme
…Abbott’s already done his dash on cutting the company tax rate. He’s already made a cut he can’t afford and it looks like being a mighty long time before budget finances return to being healthy enough – and the surplus fat enough – for him to afford another rate cut.
…Many business executives dream of the goods and services tax being increased to cover the cost, but Abbott’s repeated election promise that ”there will be no change to the GST, full stop, end of story” puts paid to that.
…Above all, remember this: Labor did come up with a package that would have financed a 2 percentage-point rate cut, but dopey big business let it slip through their fingers.
What was paying for the rate cut? The original resource super profits tax, of course. But business sat around with its eyes, ears and mouth closed while the largely foreign-owned big mining companies conspired to escape paying any specific tax on their huge resource rents.
Abbott is about to play out the last act in that monumental exercise in legal tax evasion by abolishing the mining tax before the exhaustion of accelerated depreciation allowances turns it into a much better earner.
…Equally remarkable was the rest of business’s inability to see it was they who were being ripped off by the miners, not some hated Labor government. It never crossed their tiny minds that the budget isn’t a bottomless pit or a magic pudding; that if the miners get in first, there’s not much left for everyone else. It’s called opportunity cost.
It’s time business woke up to the crude facts of fiscal life: the two most hugely profitable parts of our corporate sector are banking and mining. The more their economic rents are adequately taxed, the easier it is to afford to cut the company tax rate for everyone.
Abbott’s abolition of the mining tax is the last nail in the coffin of the case for a lower company tax rate. ]
http://www.smh.com.au/business/miners-pinch-company-taxcut-kitty-20131013-2vgny.html#ixzz2ioMs2gYd
ruawake
Reality is whatever Abbott says it is and duly reported as such by the mangy crew going to his “soiree”.
This government is looking so terribly ordinary. There’s no flush of energy, or feeling of shiny new anything. It’s dull, insipid, plain, ordinary.
With any luck they’ll be a one term govt.
3104
With luck they will call a DD and get Cooked (to make a just about to be antique Australian political history reference).
Either this government is banking on nobody calling them out on their bullshit, or they are trying their best to be a one term government.
Maybe they also believe that NSW will be bad for Labor, for a while to come, so they are fairly safe in government…
Nah, in reality, it’s because the Coalition spent the last six years developing its spin and campaigning without devoting even a second to how it will govern. I can see this being a bad government with a well-oiled spin machine at work.
mexicanbeemer@3097
Reds under the beds is an oldie and goodie.
It can’t be far away – He did discourse with Putin recently.
[bad government with a well-oiled spin machine]
I agree. And it’s the exact opposite of the Labor one.
[Abbott = LIAR
PolitiFact Australia | Abbott says Wayne Swan delivered five biggest deficits ever http://www.politifact.com.au/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/oct/23/tony-abbott/abbott-says-swan-delivered-five-biggest-deficits-e/ … via @politifactoz ]
[I can see this being a bad government with a well-oiled spin machine at work.]
The early signs of that are unmistakable. Complete with every minute detail, even down to decisions about who is employed to do the photocopying in electorate offices being centralised in the PMO.
Ttfab
Cookie did have a small problem, WWII. 🙂
OOopps WWI.
Here is a renewable Abbott may be good at getting going.
@BBCWorld: Toilet system turns waste into energy – @BBCClick looks at technology behind it http://t.co/HBSUxkJe86 & http://t.co/tWpR1s0I72
Slipper’s texts were, like the man is, vile. It was a terrible mistake to use the Speakership as a bargaining pawn not least because it left the government open to having to defend politically a slimeball.
It is interesting that never publicly was it discussed why the language was disturbing; heaven forfend that we have a mature conversation on feminist politics of language when instead we can report Gotcha! In short: it was a classic objectification – genitalia as synecdoche for women, parts of their bodies cut up into a bottle. (The specific visual metaphor AFAICT is of no real significance but I’ll stop mansplaining if someone wants to tell me otherwise 😉 )
Of course conservatives never accept the politics of language like that so the charges of hypocrisy made by many above are entirely apposite. Z’s free speech argument goes only so far I think; the point is to shield unpopular speech from criminal and executive sanction, not shield unpopular speech from public criticism. The privacy implications for subjecting entirely private conversations – even from a holder of high office – to such criticism (or rather not subject it but just Gotcha!) are worth considering.
Bill Shockten… has a ring about it
[Tony Abbott says his government stopped the boats in 50 days]
Seriously at risk of overreach. Maybe he really does think that sloganeering an message-massaging is a viable long-term strategy.
Sean the way things are looking Shorten looks on track for a hat-trick
[Bill Shockten… has a ring about it]
And this is how you spend your day?
[Seriously at risk of overreach. Maybe he really does think that sloganeering an message-massaging is a viable long-term strategy.]
In the first 4 weeks of Rudd 2.0 there were over 4000 illegal arrivals.
In the first 5 weeks of Operation Sovereign Borders there have been just over 500 illegal arrivals.
Thats a 90% reduction in 5 weeks
[With luck they will call a DD and get Cooked (to make a just about to be antique Australian political history reference).]
Whether directed at Gillard or Abbott – or even Whitlam or McMahon – the ongoing slings of “worst PM ever” irritate me. Surely Cook has that in the bag.
Spin Tisme proving my point exactly about the nature of this new government.
Martin B
I agree with most of your post, and agree that some might find Slipper’s comments ‘vile’ – although I think you’ll find he was referring to fresh mussels, not ones cut up in a jar.
But I do say ‘some’.
In the circles I moved in in my Uni days – so when I was about the same age as Ashby – the jokes I heard (and probably some I told) were a lot, lot worse than anything Slipper texted, and no one blinked an eye.
It’s also important to stress that these were comments he never thought would be made public, just as – in my Uni days – I would never have told my parents the jokes I told my friends.
In the first 5 weeks of Operation Sovereign Borders there have been just over 500 illegal arrivals.
===================================================
All due to the PNG policy put in place by Labor.
Player One,
[What these poor people need to do is find a way to turn it into a photo opportunity – one where Abbott can wear a flouro vest and a funny hat.
He’d be on their side in a minute!]
Will he require his ear-piece so that he doesn’t talk through the aforesaid hat?
[All due to the PNG policy put in place by Labor.]
If it was such a great plan(it’s actually Howards plan revisited, but lets ignore that for now), why didn’t they introduce it 6 years ago rather than a handful of weeks before an election?
[All due to the PNG policy put in place by Labor.]
Exactly. Without that the Libs would be lost.
The important thing in the Slipper – Ashby sms trail is that female genitalia were raised by Ashby in relation to Sunshine Coast Daily reporters.
Funny he gets away with calling people who can be identified Cs but Slipper gets pilloried for his REPLY.
[If it was such a great plan(it’s actually Howards plan revisited, but lets ignore that for now), why didn’t they introduce it 6 years ago rather than a handful of weeks before an election?]
Are you saying it is or isn’t a good plan?
If Abbott has stopped the boats why was Scoot in Malaysia trying to stop the boats.
[Thats a 90% reduction in 5 weeks]
Boat arrivals dropped by a similar percentage in Oct 2012 – Mar 2013 and (slightly later in the year) between Dec 2011 – Mar 2012. It’s called cyclone season.
I don’t expect you to know that, because it would take knowledge or research.
But Abbott certainly does. So he’s either confident that he can effect change by March and just claim it now, or he is bluffing on a moment to moment basis.
Ru
They are as bad as one another but as Zoomster points out they didn’t expect the comments to be made public.
The language between friends is very different to what one would use around family or in the workplace.
The real test of the boat policy will be when we leave Afghanistan.
[In the circles I moved in in my Uni days – so when I was about the same age as Ashby – the jokes I heard (and probably some I told) were a lot, lot worse than anything Slipper texted, and no one blinked an eye.]
When I say they were (IMO) vile I certainly don’t mean to say more vile than you could find in most workplaces across Australia, especially (as has been pointed out) amongst those most considered salt-of-the-earth types by conservatives. Again, the hypocrisy…
[It’s also important to stress that these were comments he never thought would be made public, just as – in my Uni days – I would never have told my parents the jokes I told my friends.]
As I agreed, a reasonable point.
Zoomster #3112
Thanks for the reminder to my old crock of a memory…. “mussels” it was.
How very terrible!!!!!! Even vile!!! Such references shock the balls off me!!! What rude count would use such a terrible word!!!!
As to CC and Duntroon, one wonders what vested interest he has in his protestations that the place was one big happy family.
Surely he knows the truth, was well aware of it, and is not that stupid, blind or naive.
Very interesting. Especially the societal bit. note its a State Media report referred to.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/26/us-china-reforms-plenum-idUSBRE99P02220131026?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=992637
[Are you saying it is or isn’t a good plan?]
I’m saying it’s a great plan Labor neither believed it or have the capability to implement….
Oceanic Viking… couldn’t get the illegals off the boat, too gutless
East Timor, too f’ing stupid to pick up the phone and ask if they wanted our detention centre first before announcing it
Malaysian Solution, deemed illegal by the high court
Suspension of Processing… filled up our detention centres, never stopped the boats
Token Lotto System Nauru processing under Dillard, less than 5% of illegals went
And on and on and on it goes… if Labor were reelected the PNG Solution would be over because half the Labor Party don’t believe in stopping the boats… they are all piss and wind
Who cares what Spin thinks about any Labor policy? He’s a Right Wing hack who has no objectivity whatsoever.
[ Sean Tisme
Posted Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 7:13 pm | Permalink
Seriously at risk of overreach. Maybe he really does think that sloganeering an message-massaging is a viable long-term strategy.
In the first 4 weeks of Rudd 2.0 there were over 4000 illegal arrivals.
In the first 5 weeks of Operation Sovereign Borders there have been just over 500 illegal arrivals.
Thats a 90% reduction in 5 weeks ]
abbott promised to –
– buy the boats
– turnback the boats and
– stop the boats.
Reducting boats atm breaks all his promises.
Why is truthie/ Sean Tisme lying.
Sean Tisme
Posted Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 7:19 pm | Permalink
All due to the PNG policy put in place by Labor.
If it was such a great plan(it’s actually Howards plan revisited, but lets ignore that for now), why didn’t they introduce it 6 years ago rather than a handful of weeks before an election?
———————————————
That’s a question you would need to put to those who make the decisions.
Nauru/Manus were re-opened in around August 2012 in what was seen as a return to the Pacific Solution with the much stricter bridging visa replacing the TPV used under Howard.
Boats did not stop. And in a race to the bottom the ALP stated that all asylum seekers arriving by boats would be sent to Manus Island and would not be grated a visa to enter Australia. The Labor Govt made a deal with the PNG Govt to process and settle asylum seekers sent to Manus but none were to be re-settled in Aust.
Since this regional deal with PNG was negotiated by the former Labor Govt the number of boat arrivals has gone down
Just saw The Pug Monkey talkin to the Tassie Liberals and his references to “Bill Shock” etc.
It was not just one reference ….. he labpured over it …. three or four sentences to to paint his pretty juvenile picture.
No ear piece so I think he made those “jokes” up hisself ….. most teenagers or those with teenager minds like Tism would’ve enjoyed them.
But the most striking aspect of it was that he had the demeanour of a LOTO who was wishful of becoming PM ….. he really is still in combat campaign mode.
The image he presents here and abroad suggests /shows that Australians in the main are a mob of dickheads, at least when voting.
Tisme if Abbott has stopped the boats surely you need to find another subject to wank on about.
How about various “hardnesses” of Tofu, is silken Tofu too soft for stir fry or is it perfect. There are a billion questions you may ask.
Oh it has its song as well.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htT4ErBz1Oc
Sean – wants to keep focusing on the past because the Liberals are doing such a cr*p job of running the Government he needs to distract debate away from the stupidity of the Liberals
[It was not just one reference ….. he labpured over it …. three or four sentences to to paint his pretty juvenile picture.]
I agree. It’s highly un-Prime Ministerial when you think about it. Keating was known for his barbed references to his opponents, but at least they were witty.
[although I think you’ll find he was referring to fresh mussels, not ones cut up in a jar.]
It’s of no real significance but I just checked and my recollection was accurate. He specifically referred to mussels in brine in a bottle.
I feel very sad a baby as young as sean has picked up such bad language when he throws a tantrum, which seems to be happening more frequently now he uses f’ing so much, really his mummy should just wash his mouth out with soap,that would stop him. Naughty silly baby he is
Is AusPost boss’ $4.8 million salary pushing the envelope?
24 October 2013 Adam Schwab
There have been some very high executive payouts in recent years — boardrooms seemed content to plunder shareholder coffers to pay multimillion-dollar stipends to the likes of Wal King, Richard Leupen, Allan Moss, Phil Green and Geoff Dixon. But those esteemed group of executives were at least employed by shareholder-owned companies; the same can’t be said for the head of Australia Post, Ahmed Fahour.
Despite working for a public utility, Fahour was paid an unprecedented $4.8 million in 2013, including a whopping $1.9 million base salary and more than $2 million in incentive pay.
Australia Post workers received a pay rise of 1.5% in 2013. Fahour, already one of Australia’s highest-paid executives, received a pay increase of 66%.
#3136
I see Tism (amongst other examples) doesn’t have a clue how the East Timor option evoved and folded.
Ditto for the Malaysian solution. (His declaration that the ACT SSM Act is “illegal”, before the HC has even examined it shows he knows SFA about our Westminster processes and the Constitution)
Musna been written down on the sheet.
[Nauru/Manus were re-opened in around August 2012 in what was seen as a return to the Pacific Solution with the much stricter bridging visa replacing the TPV used under Howard.]
That’d be the one where less than 5% of illegals were sent and was just a token gesture, not absolute enforcement??
See this is the difference… under the Coalition, everyone goes. Pregnant women go. Children go. Everyone goes.
Under Dillard we had a lottery system where you had a better chance of picking the powerball than being sent to Nauru or Manus. The problem with Labor is they don’t believe in stopping the boats, their party is torn and they even have a Labor for Refugees faction.
The Coalition meanwhile have no qualms stopping the boats and as a result will succeed where Labor have failed.
Duntroon was certainly a pit of dubious morals when I was there in the 90’s. At the time I was a wide eyed country lad, but I look back on some of the activities with shame. The treatment of females, particularly local Canberra girls, was shocking.
If Abbott has stopped the boats why is he spending millions of dollars to increase accommodation on Nauru and Manus Islands?