Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition; Morgan: 51.5-48.5

Essential Research records a spike on Tony Abbott’s monthly approval rating, and finds less concern about the Senate electoral system than one feels there should be.

Essential Research and Morgan are still the only pollsters back in the game, and both have shifted slightly to the Coalition this week. The regular Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition lead up from 52-48 to 53-47, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (up one), 34% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Monthly personal ratings have Tony Abbott up five to an all-time high of 46% approval and down one on disapproval to 35%, and with a 41-22 lead over Bill Shorten (who doesn’t get his own personal ratings yet) as preferred prime minister. There are particularly large gender gaps in these results, Abbott having a net approval of plus 14 among men and zero among women, and leading Shorten 48-21 among men and 35-23 among women.

Pleasingly, this week’s supplementary questions look at electoral reform. A question on the Senate voting system offered respondents the option of keeping the present system (a surprisingly high 32%), introduce New South Wales-style optional preferential above-the-line voting (33%) or look into other options (20%). There also seems to be a benign attitude to the Senate’s crop of successful micro-party candidates, who despite having mostly scored very few votes are rated “good for democracy” by 36% and “bad for democracy by 26%, with 17% opting for no difference. Support for compulsory voting remains very high at 71% with only 25% opposed, closely reflecting results of a comprehensive Australian National University survey on attitudes to electoral reform from August. Essential also features a semi-regular question on same-sex marriage, with results essentially unchanged from May: support and opposition are both down a point, to 57% and 31% respectively.

The latest Morgan multi-mode poll, which will be reporting fortnightly for the rest of the year at least, is a better result for the Coalition than the last, having their primary vote up 1.5% to 43.5%, Labor’s down 2.5% to 34.5%, the Greens up a point to 10%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, Labor’s 50.5-49.5 lead from a fortnight ago has turned into a Coalition lead of 51.5-48.5, which aligns precisely with my own calculation based on modelling of preference flows from the recent election. Morgan is also publishing previous-election preference figures, but since they have made the curious determination to grant all PUP and KAP votes to the Coalition until the AEC makes available breakdowns from the election, they are of no value at present.

In other news, I had a post-mortem on Labor’s remarkable Miranda by-election victory in New South Wales in Crikey yesterday, available to subscribers only.

UPDATE (25/10): Morgan has published results from an online poll conducted on the weekend from a sample of 1169, which limits itself to the question of preferred prime minister. Despite the similar methodology, it’s considerably better for Bill Shorten than the Essential poll, putting Tony Abbott’s lead at 40-36 compared with Essential’s 41-22. Abbott’s lead is entirely down to those aged over 50, with Shorten leading in each of the three younger cohorts. Abbott’s lead is at 43-36 among men and 38-36 among women. Qualitative findings are also featured, which you can read here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,199 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition; Morgan: 51.5-48.5”

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  1. “Wayne Swan considered bolstering the Reserve Bank’s reserve fund this year but was formally counselled by the Treasury that shoring up its capital holdings could be counterproductive, Fairfax Media has discovered. In an official minute to the then treasurer, dated April 10, 2013, and marked ”Sensitive”, Mr Swan was counselled against transferring money from the government to the bank.”
    —————————————————-

    I wonder what changed between April and now….an election???

  2. CC #2968

    And you don’t appear to understand that Duntroon’s structure and role changed in 1986 with the creation of ADFA.

    Do keep up.

    And CC you don’t seem to understand that:

    1) There are many references to Duntroon “happenings” ie bastardisation enquiries of one form or another any decade you wish to choose …. your google is broke hey?

    2) Much evidence shows that unless there are specific polices and practices to deal with bastardisation/bullying in institutions, and especially institutions where power/status is integral, it will occur.

  3. A cynic might say that Hockey’s actions are politically motivated.

    By throwing money at the RBA now and adding hugely to the budget deficit in 2013-14, perhaps Hockey is hoping or expecting that in a couple of years, the RBA will divest some of this excess cash and will pay a divided to the government. An extra few billion dollars in 2015-16 or 2016-17 would do wonders to lock in a budget surplus, just before the next election.
    Stephen Koukoulas

  4. [A cynic might say that Hockey’s actions are politically motivated.]

    Well, it is a pretty obvious ploy. I actually saw Alan Kohler propose that is the agenda a few days ago on ABC. They are using the RBA as a piggy bank so they can increase the deficit this year (evil ALP black hole) and have a big part of that 8 bill to magically “turn things around” another year.

  5. CC

    [nd you don’t appear to understand that Duntroon’s }

    And you don’t seem to understand that Duntroon/ADFA Cadet’s are considered trash.

    Them turning up is about ‘end of night’ in Canberra Bars.

    ‘Gather your women and go’.

  6. [What happens if there is a financial crash, the A$ goes back to $1.10 and the RBA loses the $9 billion?]

    Hockey is effectively gambling with working families money, if we wanted a gambler as treasurer we would have voted for robbie waterhouse

  7. Zoomster

    Has anyone answered your Q yet about the Slipper sms.

    If not, it was a slang reference to female genitalia of the “beaver”, “muff” nature. I can’t remember the precise term he used, but it was other than the anglo-saxon C word which many dear hearts believe to be the “filthiest word ever spoke”. (I am not fazed by it but WB might cut it if I spelt it out).

    The hypocrisy around it was huge… most of it from people who use such terms frequently eg defence forces men, politicians, media types, men.

    As you’ll recall the media got much mileage out of the unspecified “vile words” for days (weeks?) …. soooo vile it could only be referred to indirectly.

    This was a private text from one person with the hots for another. We all have different “turn ons” and whilst being talked to “dirty” does nothing for me, for some lovers, being talked to “dirty” is the greatest turn on of all.

    All ho hum!

  8. lizzie@3061


    Seems to me the Libs are being “clever and tricky” in all the worst ways.

    Lizzie – Thats the tory way.

    Their approach never really changes much.

    They oppose virtually all changes for the overall good and throw money opportunity at those already wealthy.

    The likes of truthie/cc are just saying what tories really think about the rest of society.

    abbotts walk away tactics to avoid accountability may well work. For a while anyway.

  9. The interesting thing is Treasury is leaking against Hockey already.

    The interesting thing to me is that during the election campaign Treasury officials felt the need to make a public statement clarifying what their role was in costing opposition policies – to set the record straight, apparently, and maintain their neutrality, or appearance thereof.

    If Hockey is giving the impression that the RBA asked for the $9 billion, and the RBA did not in fact ask for such additional money, shouldn’t Treasury or RBA officials be telling us this directly – to set the record straight – rather than relying on leaks?

  10. psyclaw

    I know exactly what Slipper said – I was wondering why CC was suggesting it was offensive.

    From the sounds of it, when he attended Duntroon it was a Ladies Academy.

  11. [shouldn’t Treasury or RBA officials be telling us this directly – to set the record straight – rather than relying on leaks?]

    That’s what Senate estimates are for. The public servants will have plenty of opportunity to tell Penny Wong what happened.

  12. Of course, the Libs should refer to ‘Electric Bill Shorten’ – it’s a lot snappier than their own slogan.

    On the other hand, I quite like the imagery – of energy and sparkiness – it conjures up.

  13. Jackol – they all seem to be really scared of payback by the tories.

    Martin Parkinson might go on the record as his departure date approaches.

    But some has trickled out. No names though –

    Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 12m
    I am hearing Treasury is underwhelmed by Mr Hockey’s early grip on the portfolio, work ethic and attention to detail.

    The same was said of costello.

  14. Although, regarding the $9 billion, my take on that is possibly a bit more forgiving of Hockey. The government has received significant “dividends” from the RBA’s operation of this reserve fund in the past – the last few years excepted – and it’s probably reasonable to assume that they will be able to do so again in the future (cross fingers on the currency, though). The more money in the fund, the bigger the potential return to the government.

    In that sense, Hockey is really trying to get a few years of $2 billion or $3 billion back from this “investment”, which should more than cover the interest payments, and can then be extrapolated out into coming years to make the future budgets look better.

    As opposed to a naked “stash money now, blame Swan, take money out in 2 years to make budget look good”. He obviously wants to have Swan wear the blame for the $9 billion now, but I don’t think even the LNP can be so blatantly dishonest as to simply pull it out down the track and claim it as a budget improvement…

    But yes, if the currency heads north again Hockey might find himself in trouble with that strategy.

  15. Just come home is Cranky still banging on about Duntroon/ADF cadets being as”pure as driven snow”? me thinks Cranky does protest too much 😀

    Good choice of word there? :devil:

  16. Russell Brand May Have Started a Revolution Last Night
    gawker.com
    The revolution itself may not be televised, but on last night’s edition of the BBC’s Newsnight, viewers may have witnessed the start of one.

    The revolution itself may not be televised, but on last night’s edition of the BBC’s Newsnight, viewers may have witnessed the start of one.

    Actor-slash-comedian-slash-Messiah Russell Brand, in his capacity as guest editor of the New Statesman’s just-published revolution-themed issue, was invited to explain to Jeremy Paxman why anyone should listen to a man who has never voted in his life.

    “I don’t get my authority from this preexisting paradigm which is quite narrow and only serves a few people,” Russell responded. “I look elsewhere for alternatives that might be of service to humanity.”

    And with that, the first shots of Russell’s revolutionary interview were fired.

    Over the course of the following ten-or-so minutes, Brand and Paxo volleyed back and forth over subjects ranging from political apathy, to corporate greed, to gorgeous beards.

    Throughout the interview, Brand repeatedly dodged Paxman’s efforts to trivialize his message — at one point Paxman literally called Brand a “very trivial man” — until finally, even the entrenched newsman appeared to relent against the rushing tide of Brand’s valid arguments.

    After Brand reminded Paxman that he cried after learning that his grandma too had been “fucked over” by aristocrats, the Newsnight host was stunned into silence.

    “If we can engage that feeling and change things, why wouldn’t we?” Brand crescendoed. “Why is that naive? Why is that not my right because I’m an ‘actor’? I’ve taken the right. I don’t need the right from you. I don’t need the right from anybody. I’m taking it.”

    [H/T: Reddit, video via BBC Newsnight]

  17. Schnappi

    Reason why Abbott making those comments was not used, is because he was merely making an argument as to how emissions could be taxed. He was not actually advocating this position

  18. Apologies if already posted but the effen :monkey: ‘s bullshittery deserves another round.

    [ Tony Abbott says his government stopped the boats in 50 days

    FIFTY days into the job, Prime Minister Tony Abbott says he’s already delivered on many of his election promises, and that includes stopping the boats.

    Mr Abbott emphasised the minor milestone, which he’ll reach on Sunday, as he addressed Liberal members at the party’s Tasmanian state conference.

    His “stop the boats” pledge was already being realised, the Prime Minister said, despite Labor shifting to a hard line policy on Kevin Rudd’s return as PM in June.]

  19. victoria

    Posted Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

    AA

    When I first the Russell Brand interview the other day, I immediately thought of Boerwar
    —————————————–

    Brand is very convincing

  20. On twitter. Wtf indeed

    [Abbott decries carbon tax as socialism; wants direct action from Government instead of market-based emissions trading scheme. #WTF #auspol]

  21. [ Tony Abbott says his government stopped the boats in 50 days ]

    He is just tempting fate – which is hopefully just in the background slipping the lead into the boxing gloves.

  22. It is remarkable that Tone has called the carbon tax a socialist policy yet is seeking to implement Direct Action.

    It would appear that we can add the term socialist to the list of things the Liberals don’t understand.

  23. [FIFTY days into the job, Prime Minister Tony Abbott says he’s already delivered on many of his election promises, and that includes stopping the boats. ]

    Wrong.

    Abbott has not been “in the job” for 50 days. Who prints this rubbish?

  24. It all comes down to the media. Plenty of times Labor has told Australia the truth. Along with the Greens on the real obvious stuff.

    However media does not report it.

    Just look the last week debate on climate change and bush fires.

    This is why week one of a new Labor government should pass into law the Finklestein report to reform the media

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