Essential Research and Morgan are still the only pollsters back in the game, and both have shifted slightly to the Coalition this week. The regular Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition lead up from 52-48 to 53-47, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (up one), 34% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Monthly personal ratings have Tony Abbott up five to an all-time high of 46% approval and down one on disapproval to 35%, and with a 41-22 lead over Bill Shorten (who doesn’t get his own personal ratings yet) as preferred prime minister. There are particularly large gender gaps in these results, Abbott having a net approval of plus 14 among men and zero among women, and leading Shorten 48-21 among men and 35-23 among women.
Pleasingly, this week’s supplementary questions look at electoral reform. A question on the Senate voting system offered respondents the option of keeping the present system (a surprisingly high 32%), introduce New South Wales-style optional preferential above-the-line voting (33%) or look into other options (20%). There also seems to be a benign attitude to the Senate’s crop of successful micro-party candidates, who despite having mostly scored very few votes are rated “good for democracy” by 36% and “bad for democracy by 26%, with 17% opting for no difference. Support for compulsory voting remains very high at 71% with only 25% opposed, closely reflecting results of a comprehensive Australian National University survey on attitudes to electoral reform from August. Essential also features a semi-regular question on same-sex marriage, with results essentially unchanged from May: support and opposition are both down a point, to 57% and 31% respectively.
The latest Morgan multi-mode poll, which will be reporting fortnightly for the rest of the year at least, is a better result for the Coalition than the last, having their primary vote up 1.5% to 43.5%, Labor’s down 2.5% to 34.5%, the Greens up a point to 10%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, Labor’s 50.5-49.5 lead from a fortnight ago has turned into a Coalition lead of 51.5-48.5, which aligns precisely with my own calculation based on modelling of preference flows from the recent election. Morgan is also publishing previous-election preference figures, but since they have made the curious determination to grant all PUP and KAP votes to the Coalition until the AEC makes available breakdowns from the election, they are of no value at present.
In other news, I had a post-mortem on Labor’s remarkable Miranda by-election victory in New South Wales in Crikey yesterday, available to subscribers only.
UPDATE (25/10): Morgan has published results from an online poll conducted on the weekend from a sample of 1169, which limits itself to the question of preferred prime minister. Despite the similar methodology, it’s considerably better for Bill Shorten than the Essential poll, putting Tony Abbott’s lead at 40-36 compared with Essential’s 41-22. Abbott’s lead is entirely down to those aged over 50, with Shorten leading in each of the three younger cohorts. Abbott’s lead is at 43-36 among men and 38-36 among women. Qualitative findings are also featured, which you can read here.
zoomster @2997 That’s not for me to decide – I’m pretty sure if you ran the comment past the majority of females, I’m pretty sure they’d declare them to be either sexist or misogynist or both.
Of course, the ALP stuck to the “whatever it takes” mantra of today’s ALP and couldn’t see what all the fuss was about – but if it’d been a private SMS from Abbott . . . .
ruawake @2999
So, the Government should ignore the advice of the RBA?
You think Hockey just decided to give it to the RBA for the hell of it?
Racist attack in the Shire:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/trio-questioned-over-anitsemitic-attack-and-assault-on-five-people-in-bondi/story-fni0cx12-1226747263852
CC – Back-up has arrived. ‘Hazzah’.
Unfortunately it’s Shorn. Abandon your MTB as he’s more likely to hit yours than anyone else’s.
All the talk about Duntroon having cleaned up its act is laughable.
Bullying and bastardisation as practised at Duntroon, and other elements of the armed forces, is endemic in the ADF. It is entrenched in the ethos.
That the likes of Wilkie/Campbell N admit they participated in such stuff not to mention the bayonet waving poster who comes here suggests a credibility rating of zero on this topic and most others.
We have been assured so many times that the armed forces have cleaned up their act only to discover the type of stuff which has been in court recently has happened under the very noses of these supposed “leaders”.
That anyone here should seek to defend such hazing/bastardisation/bullying/intimidation/sexual sleeze speaks for the type of “officer and gentlemen/women” we should really be proud of – not.
The very people who should have put a stop to all this stuff closed a blind eye as they saw all this as part of the “Duntroon Tradition”. They suffered themselves and saw no reason why others should not be similarly treated.
The mantra at Duntroon, at one point of it history, was to describe all the intake (Forth Class) as “The Shit of Kings”. Graduating class was described as the “Kings of Shits”.
Work it out for yourself.
The biggest laugh of course, is that our probably best general, Sir John Monash, never has the benefit of a Duntroon training.
CC –
See, this is why conservatives on PB are such a waste of time arguing with. They don’t actually believe, or even have an opinion on, most of the things they write on here.
It’s just some “other people” who they are “pretty sure” would think something or other.
CC obviously doesn’t think what Slipper wrote – privately! – was misogynist/sexist, but that doesn’t stop him from making the tired argument that, presumably, comparing female genitalia to mussels is “sexist” or something. No one has ever explained how that works. It’s just assumed that making a colourful description of female genitalia is inherently sexist/misogynist to someone. Somewhere. Or something.
[CTar1
Posted Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 10:10 am | PERMALINK
rummel
I was chatting with an ACT Fire Brigade guy once and the subject was Black Mountain.
He told me that there were Streets in Aranda that it was agreed among themselves they wouldn’t take a truck and crew in.]
Each area has those types of no go zones. I don’t mind some of them as most locals know they live in a dangerous area and are ready to leave a the drop of a hat and not look back.
jackol @3006
So you discount mexican beemer’s comment:
[mexicanbeemer
Posted Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 1:57 pm | Permalink
Lizzie
The sms’s in question if they were really sent by Slipper were nasty.]
And you discount Emma Alberici on ABC’s Lateline? And plenty of other public females who expressed their disgust?
[Racist attack in the Shire:]
What Shire is Bondi in?
Jackol
It’s a sort of reverse of the old position the conservatives used to take – the fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun seems to be replaced by the idea that we should regulate our behaviour/language on the offchance that someone, somewhere will be offended.
I’m reminded of a Very Butch Man who, for a while, inhabited our staffroom. He once dropped the phrase ‘lady’s front bottom’ in conversation and interpreted our screams of outrage as being because he referred to our mussels.
He just couldn’t grasp the fact that we all found him unbearably twee.
Some of those Big Tough Guys are actually more prudish than the ‘little ladies’ whose sensibilities they think they’re protecting.
rummel – I was in total agreement.
There’s commitment but there has to be ‘don’t be stupid’.
CC –
Almost always.
Have any of them explained why the privately expressed comments of Peter Slipper were sexist?
And, again, what do you think, CC, since you are the one making the argument at the moment? If you don’t believe it, how credible can your own argument be?
Abbott and Health
_____________
It will be interesting to see how his Toady Task Force handles the question of health service cuts…for they surely will
This is a great danger for him ,as the latest polls show Abbott “heartland” supporters are amongst the elderlies who got a great deal under Labor…not thanks for that however
Interestingly …in the USA the Repubs are wondering whether Obamacare once in place can ever be cut back or destroyed because of the electoral effects of such actions
The voters don’t like to see an entitlement taken away
so what will Abbott do ??
Like Global Warming…another problem for him to handle
Compact Crank@3002
Treasury advised against it –
[ Wayne Swan considered bolstering the Reserve Bank’s reserve fund this year but was formally counselled by the Treasury that shoring up its capital holdings could be counterproductive, Fairfax Media has discovered.
In an official minute to the then treasurer, dated April 10, 2013, and marked ”Sensitive”, Mr Swan was counselled against transferring money from the government to the bank.
The minute also advised that doing so could compromise the bank’s independence from the government.
The advice contradicts any suggestion by the current government that Mr Swan had been negligent in allowing the bank’s capital buffer to run down and had acted against the advice of the RBA. ]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/minute-reveals-treasury-told-swan-not-to-boost-rbas-reserve-fund-20131025-2w748.html#ixzz2inhw3Jj1
Plus it was the tories who ripped money out of the RBA –
[ page 77 of the RBA Annual Report included a table that summarised the dividends paid by the Bank to the government since 1997-98.
That table shows that under the Howard Coalition government, the RBA paid a total of $20.2 billion in dividends. This was $1.83 billion a year. In today’s dollar terms, the total amount paid by the RBA was in excess of $30 billion or almost $3 billion per annum.
Under Labor, the RBA paid a total of $7.9 billion in dividends or around $1.3 billion a year, on average. In today’s dollar terms, this total approximately $9 billion or an average of around $1.5 billion per annum. In the last three Labor budgets, the average dividend was a tiny $410 million a year.
In other words, Treasurer Peter Costello ‘raided’ the RBA, using Hockey’s language, to the tune of $3 billion a year in today’s dollar terms for every year in 11 years, while Treasurer Swan (and then briefly Chis Bowen) ‘raided’ $1.5 billion per year for six years. ]
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/10/25/reserve-bank-australia/trouble-bolstering-rbas-reserves
[@NSWRFS: Unconfirmed reports of unapproved drone flying in Springwood area. If confirmed will affect aerial fire fighting ops.]
NSW bushfire victims denied compo under new rules
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-bushfire-victims-denied-compensation-under-new-rules-20131026-2w80f.html
Cranky
The RBA never asked for a cent. Hockey is playing dangerous politics. If the RBA loses the $10 billion who takes the blame?
Z – lol. Hmmm.
I think that people have taken the media’s artificial outrage creation machine and just assume that anything a bit, y’know, rude, must necessarily be “outrageous!” and sexist/racist/whateverist.
The thing about rude language is it’s mostly about the time and place. In a boardroom it’s not appropriate. On a sober current affairs show: not appropriate. In banter with mates: probably quite appropriate depending on your mates.
Slipper’s main mistake was he thought Ashby was a mate.
Re Hunt/Abbott and CC
______________
The Age has been doing a great job in recent days on this matter and Hunt must cringe when he sees the coverage daily
He seems a real dunce…and it a such delicate topicin Flinders
I have friends in his electorate of Flinders who are involved in environmental matters..and he is getting a bit of stick locally…though he represents a very wealthy electorate.. it is one with a delicate maritime situation and much awareness…one of the most ardent defenders of the region is Kate Bailleau ..Ted’s activist sister.who has led many local campaigns
Hunt is a disaster …and so early in the game…and the Age is unrelenting
Racist attack in the Shire:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/trio-questioned-over-anitsemitic-attack-and-assault-on-five-people-in-bondi/story-fni0cx12-1226747263852
=====================================================
When governments use inflammatory language like describing asylum seekers as illegal, or plan to micro-chip foreigners, or have a register that informs police etc where these people live or falsely claim that asylum seekers/foreigners are somehow more prone to criminal activity and should be deported for even minor crimes, it feeds the xenophobic redneck paranoia and this is the result.
[Slipper’s main mistake was he thought Ashby was a mate]
And Abbott.
[So, the Government should ignore the advice of the RBA?
You think Hockey just decided to give it to the RBA for the hell of it?]
Hockey needs to release ALL details re the $9 billion,including whether he directed the RBA to ask for the money.
[ NSW bushfire victims denied compo under new rules
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-bushfire-victims-denied-compensation-under-new-rules-20131026-2w80f.html ]
What these poor people need to do is find a way to turn it into a photo opportunity – one where Abbott can wear a flouro vest and a funny hat.
He’d be on their side in a minute!
[When governments use inflammatory language like describing asylum seekers as illegal, or plan to micro-chip foreigners, or have a register that informs police etc where these people live or falsely claim that asylum seekers/foreigners are somehow more prone to criminal activity and should be deported for even minor crimes, it feeds the xenophobic redneck paranoia and this is the result.]
I doubt this attack fits that narrative, Achmed. The people attacked were Jews. Which ethnic group are the teenage attackers most likely to come from? So this attack will probably feed the opposite narrative.
Compact Crank@3001
abbott was never made to explain or apologise about his “Shit happens” comments involving deaths and injuries to our troops in Afghanistan when he was sucking up to a US General.
Far far worse than slipper – abbott flippant insensitive comments about our injured troops and their grieving families.
Instead, mark riley was castigated for asking why abbott had used such callous language when talking out incidents involving troop injuries and death.
[ Compact Crank
Posted Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 2:31 pm | Permalink
Freedom of speech doesn’t mean you can say what ever you like and not be exposed publicly.
Freedom of speech does mean being responsible for what you say – both in private and in public. ]
Its well overdue for abbott to be held responsible for his comments.
[Hockey needs to release ALL details re the $9 billion,including whether he directed the RBA to ask for the money.]
Hockey should release any official correspondence between the RBA and Treasury, it will be revealed in Estimates if the RBA asked (I doubt they did) or Hockey offered (I bet he did).
Funny if Joe’s first major act was to five away $10 billion with no legal basis to do so.
ru
I am unclear as to why Hockey did this in the first instance
This should be introduced for mps rorting their TA, instead of pink they have to wear speedos.
Would see the whole front bench of the lnp in speedos, not that tone would mind.
[The Queensland government, under its new anti-bikie legislation, has proposed that club members be forced to wear hot pink jumpsuits while in prison as a way of humiliating them and making them more malleable.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/pretty-in-pink-farmers-maybe-bikies-no-20131024-2w2di.html#ixzz2inpPd2BQ
[ Hockey needs to release ALL details re the $9 billion,including whether he directed the RBA to ask for the money. ]
The Tories need to justify their “budget emergency” rhetoric. Since there wasn’t an emergency readily available when they came to office, they have decided to try and manufacture one.
Vic – the speculation is he will take the money from the RBA just before the next election in order to ‘produce’ a ‘balanced’ budget.
Sneaky.
[I am unclear as to why Hockey did this in the first instance]
Vic
The $9 billion is added to the deficit for this year, makes it a lot bigger, say $40 billion instead of $30 billion.
Next year hockey could rip the money back out of the rba, instead of a deficit of $30 billion, same as this year, he could claim a deficit of $20 billion and say it was half that of labor.
[I am unclear as to why Hockey did this in the first instance]
Trying to control any C’wlth Agency that has some independence.
The JWH way of operating.
How come the “Media” knew about the bushfire funding cuts a week ago but waited til today to print them?
Or did the not politicising the fires crap scare them?
Hockey’s motivations as put forth above, make a great deal of sense.
[The Kouk Between now & next election the govt will pay approx $1 billion interest on the $8.8 billion it borrowed to give RBA businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/1…]
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/10/25/reserve-bank-australia/trouble-bolstering-rbas-reserves
[How come the “Media” knew about the bushfire funding cuts a week ago but waited til today to print them?
Or did the not politicising the fires crap scare them?]
I was thinking the same thing myself.
On an electoral commission topic.
[The New South Wales Electoral Commission has gone to tender seeking between 5,000 and 5,900 Android tablets for use in the electoral commissions of NSW, Queensland, and Victoria.
According to the tender documents, the tablets will be used for conducting electoral roll lookups, completing forms, and training electoral staff. All of the tablets will need to run Android 4.0, Ice Cream Sandwich, or higher. There are no dimension requirements stating that the tablets must necessarily be one of either 7-inch or 10-inch versions.
NSW and Victoria will seek 1,500 of the tablets each, with Queensland looking to purchase between 2,000 and 2,500 tablets.]
It gets a bit rough when the yanks are poking jibes at hockey for increasing the debt ceiling –
[ Michael Shedlock – Here’s an amusing story courtesy of the International Business Times: Australia Raises Debt-Ceiling to A$500bn to Avoid US-Like Crisis
etc etc..
….Nevertheless, Hockey noted that the country would not target a substantial increase in its debt level, as it could lead to uncertainties.
“We are not going to allow ourselves to get into the position that the United States is in where there’s tremendous uncertainty about the capacity of a country to live within its means,” he told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
…Debt Ceiling Not the Problem
Good Grief. The debt ceiling is not the problem. Spending is the problem.
The US is in trouble not because of failure to hike the ceiling. The US is in trouble because it spent so much it needed to hike the ceiling every year or so, for years on end.
Australia is falling into the same trap as the US, albeit more slowly. Australia’s second problem is modeling actions based on clueless US politicians.
Treasurer Joe Hockey statements suggest he is as much an economic fool as his US counterparts.]
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/michael-shedlock/australia-raises-debt-ceiling-to-avoid-561
The brutal US Empire spies on everyone friend and foe alike it seems
“fighting terror ” is a handy excuse
__________________________
A US writer Eric Margolic says that the US spying actions in Europe and Latin America have made Obama as unpopular with his allies as was George Bush..some deal !
and why do they do it …because they can I guess
http://www.lewrockwell.com/2013/10/eric-margolis/terrorism-is-just-an-excuse/
Spying is one thing.
Incompetent spying and getting caught as well as being publicly outed is something else again.
Psephos
Posted Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 4:19 pm | Permalink
I doubt this attack fits that narrative, Achmed. ===========================================
I hope you are right. I don’t mind being wrong on this
For anyone like me who is a tight arse and wants to get around the News Limited/Fairfax paywall the solution is easy… turn on private browsing in your browser.
Works a treat… free access, every day, no questions asked. 🙂
[Mr Abbott took a swipe at the Opposition Leader, calling him “Bill ‘Shock’ Shorten” and saying: “We know that he’s capable of changing his mind.”]
“Bill ‘Shock’ Shorten”?
No wonder people have such little regard for our elected members.
Showbag Bill is much better. All Show, very little substance
[Mr Abbott also said the carbon tax was a socialist policy in disguise.
“Let’s be under no illusions the carbon tax was socialism masquerading as environmentalism,” he said.]
Good grief! If the carbon ‘tax’ represents socialism, then so does his PPL tax.
confessions
Posted Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 4:34 pm | Permalink
How come the “Media” knew about the bushfire funding cuts a week ago but waited til today to print them?
Or did the not politicising the fires crap scare them?
I was thinking the same thing myself.
====================================================
I recall reading and hearing about the cuts a week ago. I posted the link to the legislation last Friday after seeing the changes.
They were certainly a topic of comment among those I follow on Twitter last week
Some good may come out of the US being dickheads.
[Germany and Brazil are working on a UN General Assembly resolution to highlight international anger at US data spying in other countries, diplomats have said.
The resolution would not mention the United States, but would call for extending UN’s multilateral treaty, the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, to internet activities…
…Brazil and Germany want a provision of the covenant that says “no one shall be subjected to arbitrary or unlawful interference with his privacy, family, home or correspondence, nor to unlawful attacks on his honor and reputation” extended to cyberspace.]
Murdoch will crap himself, wait for his free speech myrmidons.
AA:
Yes, I recall reading about the changes a week ago also. I definitely think the media went slow/cold/whatever on reporting it then because they were worried of being accused of politicising the bushfires.
Never mind that the funding cuts were directly relevant to people whose possessions had been lost at the time.
Sean Tisme@3042
Nice try we know you don’t read.
ruawake
Just check out the look on Angela Merkel’s face a couple of days back when it hit the fan. She looks as happy as Putin was with PMBO