Essential Research and Morgan are still the only pollsters back in the game, and both have shifted slightly to the Coalition this week. The regular Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition lead up from 52-48 to 53-47, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (up one), 34% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Monthly personal ratings have Tony Abbott up five to an all-time high of 46% approval and down one on disapproval to 35%, and with a 41-22 lead over Bill Shorten (who doesn’t get his own personal ratings yet) as preferred prime minister. There are particularly large gender gaps in these results, Abbott having a net approval of plus 14 among men and zero among women, and leading Shorten 48-21 among men and 35-23 among women.
Pleasingly, this week’s supplementary questions look at electoral reform. A question on the Senate voting system offered respondents the option of keeping the present system (a surprisingly high 32%), introduce New South Wales-style optional preferential above-the-line voting (33%) or look into other options (20%). There also seems to be a benign attitude to the Senate’s crop of successful micro-party candidates, who despite having mostly scored very few votes are rated “good for democracy” by 36% and “bad for democracy by 26%, with 17% opting for no difference. Support for compulsory voting remains very high at 71% with only 25% opposed, closely reflecting results of a comprehensive Australian National University survey on attitudes to electoral reform from August. Essential also features a semi-regular question on same-sex marriage, with results essentially unchanged from May: support and opposition are both down a point, to 57% and 31% respectively.
The latest Morgan multi-mode poll, which will be reporting fortnightly for the rest of the year at least, is a better result for the Coalition than the last, having their primary vote up 1.5% to 43.5%, Labor’s down 2.5% to 34.5%, the Greens up a point to 10%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, Labor’s 50.5-49.5 lead from a fortnight ago has turned into a Coalition lead of 51.5-48.5, which aligns precisely with my own calculation based on modelling of preference flows from the recent election. Morgan is also publishing previous-election preference figures, but since they have made the curious determination to grant all PUP and KAP votes to the Coalition until the AEC makes available breakdowns from the election, they are of no value at present.
In other news, I had a post-mortem on Labor’s remarkable Miranda by-election victory in New South Wales in Crikey yesterday, available to subscribers only.
UPDATE (25/10): Morgan has published results from an online poll conducted on the weekend from a sample of 1169, which limits itself to the question of preferred prime minister. Despite the similar methodology, it’s considerably better for Bill Shorten than the Essential poll, putting Tony Abbott’s lead at 40-36 compared with Essential’s 41-22. Abbott’s lead is entirely down to those aged over 50, with Shorten leading in each of the three younger cohorts. Abbott’s lead is at 43-36 among men and 38-36 among women. Qualitative findings are also featured, which you can read here.
CC
really? I didn’t know you were such a prude.
I didn’t find any of the Slipper texts that offensive, particularly in the context of the conversation.
Still, typical of a conservative – you give lip service to free speech but when someone exercises it in a way you don’t like, you get all prissy.
Lizzie @2946
OOOOOOh – “CONSPIRACY” – Since when has an Opposition not wanted to “bring down a government?”.
“Conspiracy” implies some sort of illegal activity – can you please define anything that you think was done that was illegal.
If you can’t define anything illegal then are you just unhappy with hard ball politics?
Compact Crank@2943
Nice try at look over there – but it won’t work.
You said Labor people talking constantly about the libs while Labor was in Government was a sign they were worried.
Guess what – you must be really worried about abbott because all you talk about is Labor.
abbott is going to be held to account no matter how much lying he does.
Get used to it.
Zoomster i am surprised that you were okay with the alleged sms’s sent by Slipper
Lizzie – I’m conspiring to bring down the ACT and Tasmanian Governments right now.
Are you outraged?
zoomster @2951 – you clearly have little understanding of the principles of “free speech”.
CC
[10 years to build a $600 mill hospital?]
I noticed that as well. It will take about five years for the staff at the WCH to agree to move so I’m thinking that accounts for the delay.
Ah yes, insulting Sophy Mirabella. The Coalition got really upset about that.
Of the texts I read, only one was a bit over the top IMO.
50 days in
Abbott has apologised to the Indonesians after insulting them
Abbott has apologised to the Malaysian Govt after insulting them when he was in opposition
Insulted the PNG Prime Minister and Govt
Given the RBA $8.8 billion that they didn’t ask for.
Failed to address the misuse of travel allowances by his co-conspirators
Called Climate Change ‘hogwash’ but wants us all to believe he is committed to carbon reduction
A cone of secrecy around asylum seekers
Demonised asylum seekers by labelling them illegal
Continued the Labor initiated PNG Policy that has reduced the boat arrivals
Borrowed billions and now paying $100 million a day in interest
Continues to claim people will be $550 better off when he cannot guarantee the corporations will reduce the prices (in fact the corporations have said the price will not drop due to on-going costs after the legislation is repealed)
Continues to operate the Labor budget even though he claimed it was in “emergency”.
Sacked 3 public servants
Sean Tisme@2928
Why is truthie/ Sean Tisme lying
CC #2905
“I wasn’t aware of bastardisation at Duntroon in the 1990s”
Well CC you have just defined yousself as either extremely naive or extremely dishonest.
Bastardisation has been an integral part of Duntroon’s ops since it’s inception.
Huge, yes huge amounts of evidence of this is freely available all over the internet, eg Michael Willisee’s 4 Corners examination of the matter in the 70’s.
Sadly, quite a proportion of humanity is “oblivious” to bastardisation and bullying in all the settings in which they invariably occur. Sometimes those very persons are perpetrators, silent witnesses, or beneficeries of the acts.
Crank
The deliberate entrapment was quite different to normal politics.
CC
I will be outraged if you lie about them in a court deposition and take a bogus case through the courts.
dave @2953
Yeah, dave – I’m really worrried.
The ALP keeps making itself the news.
The Coalition has been quietly getting on with the job of running the country and the polls remain good.
Abbott sailed through his first major public test in his trips to Indonesia and has been leading by example doing his Volunteer Fire Fighting duties.
I am quaking with fear of the resurgent ALP, apparently.
[he claimed it was in “emergency”.]
But he’s still got lots of time to ride his bike, put his budgies on for a swim and pretend he’s a fireman.
Liberal govts always cruise and do as little as possible except play politics.
Pig-Iron Bob’s philosophy – Back to the 50’s.
I really hope this wasn’t an anti-Semitic attack and was just random violence, coz we really don’t want hate attacks in Australia.
[Police are questioning three people allegedly involved in an anti-Semitic attack that injured five people near Bondi Beach on Saturday.
Four men, aged 27 to 66, and a 62-year-old woman were injured suffering a fractured cheekbone, broken nose, concussion, lacerations and bruising.]
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/five-people-hospitalised-after-brawl-in-bondi-20131026-2w80v.html#ixzz2inHMO6lB
Compact Crank
Posted Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 1:57 pm | Permalink
AussieAchmed @2947
If you want to go through the PBO Analysis line by line – be my guest – I’m not going to do it for you.
===================================================
given your strident defence of DA I would have thought you would know.
I’m been through it line by line and its not clearly identified.
Pretty much the same blurb as was in the dreaded “pamphlet”.
psyclaw @2961
And you don’t appear to understand that Duntroon’s structure and role changed in 1986 with the creation of ADFA.
Do keep up.
Is Shawn having another lunch break?
lizzie @2962
“Deliberate entrapment” – hardly. Slipper was a right pillock and was publicly exposed.
The ALP would give their left Ovary to be able to do similar to Abbott.
Phil Vee @2963 – Who lied in a court deposition? What was the “bogus” case?
“I wasn’t aware of bastardisation at Duntroon in the 1990s”
==================================================
Bastardisation has been an integral part of all military establishments since the year dot. Particularly at the training facilities. It had its grounding in the belief that military personnel need to be tough in lots of different circumstances. From going onto the battle field and killing other people, to watching mates get killed or maimed to getting captured and tortured as a POW.
It was a “toughen up princess” regime. If you weren’t tough enough to live through it, then perhaps you should get a job as a tea lady or join a knitting circle was the attitude.
Anyone who says they didn’t see it, were not aware of it, is either a bare-faced liar or so stupid they would trip over their own boot laces while “charging” into battle
Crank
Didn’t the judge rule against Ashby on the grounds of the state of the evidence.
Apologies if already linked . Editorial in today’s Age
Editorial
To believe or not to believe? That is not the question. The science is in; human activity is producing greenhouse gas emissions that threaten the wellbeing of future generations and compel action by the current generation. It is a moral and economic imperative. There has long been sufficient evidence-based and peer-reviewed scientific consensus that anthropogenic climate change is real and dangerous.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/abbott-and-hunt-reckless-on-climate-20131025-2w78a.html#ixzz2inKdVI7O
mexican
The comments were made in the context of a private ‘conversation’.
I’ve heard far worse…and laughed at it.
CC
Slipper’s comments go to the essence of the concept of free speech. It used to be that conservatives upheld the right of people to say and do whatever they liked in private, as long as it hurt no one else.
Slipper did not publish his comments in a newspaper. He didn’t say them to people’s faces. He made them in private, in the context of a conversation he believed would stay private.
In that context, they did absolutely no harm to anybody and thus – under any definition of free speech I’m aware of – were his own business.
I’m surprised a big tough Army guy who went to Duntroon (so did many of my friends, btw) would carry on like a Victorian maiden at a bit of ‘blue’ talk.
I graduated from a well respected University and lived in church run student accommodation. By the sounds of it, you wouldn’t have lasted five minutes there.
mexicanbeemer @2973 – No, Justice Rares dismissed the claims on the basis that he ruled that they were an abuse of process – that is being appealed.
zoomster – you can make all the personal attacks on me based on your own erronous assumptions – I really don’t care.
Where have I or any other defender of free speech said that Slipper should not have been allowed to say what he said?
Freedom of speech doesn’t mean you can say what ever you like and not be exposed publicly.
Freedom of speech does mean being responsible for what you say – both in private and in public.
[that is being appealed]
Only really by Harmer. No one who backed the original shenanigans cares a hoot now.
Poor Harmer – used and abused and on his own.
Good luck, Dickhead.
victoria @2947 – The Age continues to reinforce why its’ circulation numbers are crashing.
Far be it for me to try and steer them away from the abyss.
I believe Slipper recorded the lowest ever vote for a Member standing for re-election – even worse than Thommo! . . . and still the Poll Bludger Faithful fly the flag for Slipper (and Thommo who is, of course, innocent until proven guilty although he won’t be contesting the facts of the credit card usage – just whether it was authorised or not).
[I believe Slipper recorded the lowest ever vote for a Member standing for re-election]
I don’t give a flying about Slipper.
But scummy behaviour by current sitting members is a different thing.
CC
I’m curious as to why you find what Slipper said so offensive, that’s all. Most army guys I know would have found his comments highly amusing.
Apparently it is very un-PC to use the term Twat according to the BBC.
CC
the Age circulation is doing poorly, but today’s Editorial is absolutely spot on
CC – Don’t be a twat. The BBC beeped ‘crap’ as said by your Glorious Leader a couple of days ago.
Greg Stunt was ‘confected’ offended – you should move to his electorate.
You could then huddle together.
Zoomster
“I’m curious as to why you find what Slipper said so offensive, that’s all. Most army guys I know would have found his comments highly amusing.”
Bet you don’t get an answer.
zoomster – I have never said that I found it offensive or otherwise and I’m not going to disclose my personal opinion of it.
In the context of the Gillard Government and their focus on sexism and misogyny – one would expect that the ones who should have been in “high dungeon” (to use Gillard’s turn of phrase)was the ALP – but amazingly the Sisters closed ranks behind Slipper – until the “line in the sand” was crossed – still waitnig for Gillard to explain exactly what crossed which line, where and when.
How’s them apples for ya halloween jack?
Told you so!
Abbott reportedly said:
[Let’s be under no illusions the carbon
tax(sic) {price} was socialism masquerading as environmentalism]I’m under no such illusion. Those who supported it (I amongst them) were called ‘neoliberals on bikes’.
[I’m not going to disclose my personal opinion of it.]
😆
Stop abusing people, CTar1.
halloween jack
How’s Manhattan Chase?
Bilbo!
CC fighting a very losing battle here.
Zoomster strafing him.
halloween jack – zoomster’s question is based on an unfounded premise – she has no evidence of what my personal opinion about what Slipper SMS’d is. She framed the question poorly on the basis of an unfounded assumption.
CC
If Slipper’s comments weren’t offensive or misogynist, there isn’t anything remarkable about the behaviour of ‘the Sisters’.
If you want to bash on about Gillard et al being ‘hypocritical’ then you have to find Slipper’s language offensive.
If it wasn’t offensive, there isn’t an issue.
I think the left are just warming up on their personal abuse on Abbott… today it’s attacking him for helping fight fires, what nasty attacks will they do by the end of his term??
Joe Hockey added $8.8 billion plus $1.4 billion in interest over the FE. Thats $10.2 billion further away from surplus for zero reason except politics.
[what nasty attacks will they do]
Expose him for the tool that he undoubtedly is?