UPDATE (Morgan poll): The latest Morgan multi-mode poll, which will be reporting fortnightly for the rest of the year at least, is a better result for the Coalition than the last, having their primary vote up 1.5% to 43.5%, Labor’s down 2.5% to 34.5%, the Greens up a point to 10%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. As was the case in the previous poll, there is an implausibly huge disparity between the respondent-allocated two-party result (51.5-48.5 to the Coalition) and that using 2013 election preferences (55-45), and as was the case last time, I can only conclude that something is going awry with the latter calculation. My own modelling of preference flows from the recent election produces a result of 51.5-48.5 from these results, exactly the same as the Morgan respondent-allocated preference figure.
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| Blue and red numbers (if any) respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the Liberal and Labor parties. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Cook covers southern Sydney suburbs to the south of the Georges River, including Kurnell, Cronulla, Miranda and Sylvania. The electorate was created in 1969 to accommodate post-war suburban development, the area having previously been accommodated by Hughes from its creation in 1955 and Werriwa beforehand (an unrelated seat called Cook covered inner southern Sydney from 1906 to 1955). There has been little geographical change to the electorate since its creation, its boundaries being set by Botany Bay and Georges River in the north and Port Hacking in the south, but its character has transformed from marginal mortgage belt to affluent and safe Liberal. The seat’s inaugural member was Donald Dobie, who had won the hitherto Labor-held seat of Hughes for the Liberals with the 1966 landslide, but he was unseated in 1972 by Labor’s Ray Thornburn. Dobie again contested the seat in 1974 and 1975, suffering a second narrow defeat on the first occasion and winning easily on the second. Thornburn followed Dobie’s example in twice recontesting the seat in 1977 and 1980, but like all future Labor candidates he was unsuccessful. Dobie prevailed by 148 votes when the Fraser government was defeated in 1983, and the closest margin since has been 3.5% in 1993.
Dobie was succeeded upon his retirement at the 1996 election by Stephen Mutch, who had been a member of the state upper house since 1988. Mutch fell victim after one term to an exercise of power by the party’s moderate faction, which at first backed local barrister Mark Speakman, who had been best man at Mutch’s wedding nine years earlier. The resulting dispute ended with the installation of another noted moderate, Bruce Baird, who had been a senior minister through the Greiner-Fahey NSW government from 1988 to 1995. Mutch’s demise greatly displeased John Howard, who pointedly failed to promote Baird at any point in his nine years in Canberra. It also did not help that Baird was close to Peter Costello, and was spoken of as his potential deputy when fanciful leadership speculation emerged in early 2001. After reports that growing Right control of local branches was putting his preselection in jeopardy, the 65-year-old Baird announced he would bow out at the 2007 election.
Even before Baird’s retirement announcement there was talk of him being succeeded by Scott Morrison, former state party director and managing director of Tourism Australia. According to Steve Lewis in The Australian, Morrison boasted “glowing references from a who’s who of Liberal luminaries, including Defence Minister Brendan Nelson, Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull, former Liberal president Shane Stone, Howard’s long-time chief of staff Arthur Sinodinos, and Nick Minchin, the Finance Minister and another close ally of Howard”. However, it quickly became clear that such support would not avail him without the backing of the Right, which had been successfully courted by local numbers man Michael Towke. Imre Salusinsky of The Australian reported that Morrison was further starved of support when moderates resolved to resist Towke by digging in behind their own candidate, Optus executive Paul Fletcher, later to emerge as member for Bradfield.
The ensuing preselection ballot saw Towke defeat Fletcher in the final round by 82 votes to 70, with Morrison finishing well back in a field that included several other well-credentialled candidates. However, Towke’s preselection success met powerful resistance from elements of the party hierarchy, whom conservative Sydney Morning Herald columnist Paul Sheahan credited with a series of damaging reports in the Daily Telegraph. The reports accused Towke of branch-stacking and embellishing his CV, culminating in the headline, “party split as Liberal candidate faces jail” (a defamation action brought by Towke against the paper was eventually settled in his favour). It was further reported that Towke had been the victim of a whispering campaign relating to how his Lebanese heritage would play in the electorate that played host to the 2005 Cronulla riots (Towke’s surname being a recently adopted Anglicisiation of Taouk). The party’s state executive narrowly passed a resolution to remove Towke as candidate, and a new preselection involving representatives of local branches and the state executive duly delivered victory to Scott Morrison.
Morrison was quickly established as a senior figure in a Liberal Party newly consigned to opposition, winning promotion to the front bench as Shadow Housing and Local Government Minister when Malcolm Turnbull became leader in September 2008 and securing the high-profile immigration and citizenship portfolio when Turnbull was deposed by Tony Abbott in December 2009. He further gained productivity and population after the 2010 election, before having his political role sharpened with the title of Immigration and Border Protection Minister following the 2013 election victory.
So, what exactly did happen on Manus Island?
Morrison wanking on about it being the responsibility of the PNG authorities is not good enough.
I know perfectly well that Morrison is wasting my tax dollars on Manus.
It is time for Morrison to go to confession, do an act of contrition, to repent for his sins of mismanaging our tax dollards on Manus Island and then get on his knees to seek our forgiveness for being a democracy thief with his political correctness gone wrong.
The next thing this wacker will be telling us is that it would help the people smugglers if he actually told the truth from time to time.
Q. Did you hear the one about the Liberal on travel allowances, the asylum seeker, and the taxpayer?
A. No? Then you must be a the taxpayer.
[In which case TPVs are not necessary. ]
You have your head in the sand(or up your own arse)
You are yet to explain what happens with the 25,000 illegals currently sitting on the Australian mainland. Oh whats that? Silence?
These 25,000 illegals will now be taken off bridging visas and put on TPV’s
ST
I am with you. The TPVs will make 25,000 asylum seekers go pfffft.
It’s obvious.
Did Hockey start the Bushfires so he could finally answer the question, “Where’s the fire?”
fran
You are not trying to tell me that Adam Bandt means ‘scorched earth’?
Oh goody. Let 25,000 refugees out of detention, whilst providing them with no means of support and forbidding them to work. What could go wrong?
Q Did you hear how much Abbott’s fire truck stunt cost the Australian taxpayer?
A. If the answer is no, you are the Australian taxpayer.
Z
Will they have the right to bear arms?
zoomstr:
Exactly. It’s a stunt.
A tiny wren has just flown into my glass doors and is now sat on the porch in shock. It’s still breathing, but hasn’t moved. Does anyone know what I should do with it?
Millions being spend to expand Nauru and Manus.
And this happening because the boats are going to stop and the extra accommodation won’t be needed.
DUR
zoomster… they aren’t in detention.
Mate, have you had the blinkers on for the last 6 years?
Labor has been letting unprocessed illegals out willy nilly on the street.. there are now 25,000 of them.
The Coalition have to deal with Labors mess now.
Oh BTW, TPV’s do allow work but restrict welfare.. perhaps you should do your homework next time.
BW,
‘Bare bums” is the Aussie way!
Tisme it’s you with your head up your arse.
TPVs are intended to pretend help stop the boats, yet the boats keep coming of course.
Liberals – all smoke and mirrors.
and
Hockey raises debt ceiling = more Liberal debt!
Sean, you’ve demonstrated many times that your powers of comprehension are limited, but you really do need to understand that asylum seekers are not ‘illegals’.
Centre,
The boats are slowing… soon they will stop and then the left will spin the usual old bullcrap about push factors.
Seen it all before mate. Sit back, relax and watch the Coalition do in a few months what Labor couldn’t do in it’s entire 6 years in power.
confessions
If it’s safe where it is, leave it alone.
Otherwise place in a dark box and see whether it dies or revives.
They can remain stunned for some time, but if it’s sitting upright it will probably recover.
Shorn fails to comprehend and understand that under the UN Convention and International Law it is not illegal to seek asylum nor is it illegal to be a refugee.
I understand that, contrary to their nauseating whinging about cost/benefit analyses, the Liberals did not do a cost/benefit analysis on the way in which O’Farrell saved $11,000,000 on fire services.
Let’s see, back of the envelope, of course, but something is usually much better than nothing.
200 houses with associated infrastructue @ $500,000 per house = $100,000,000.
Lost productivity = $10,000,000 because everyone is dodging fires, sitting in giant traffic jams, or glued to the telly.
Increased health costs due to burns, smoke inhalation, stress = $5,000,000.
Insurance increases per annum @ $25,000,000 per annum.
Total benefit of saving $11,000,000 equals around $140,000,000.
Oh, and there are still around four months of the fire season left.
My advice on the basis of the cost/benefit analysis would be for O’Farrell not to do it. Plus, Abbott should get out his bloody fire truck for long enough to withold the Commonwealth’s 50% share of disaster relief because why should the Commonwealth subsidise cost-shifting and poor governance by O’Farrell?
Trying to have a decent discussion with ST (or any of the other Lib enthusiasts) around, is like trying to eat a meal with a two year old having a tantrum on your lap.
Tisme
Get on your dingy (some good ones on special at Kmart) and go help the monkey turn back a boat!
confessions
Don’t let Morrison near it. He will probably wack it with a TPV and ship it to Nauru if it is with egg.
fess
I start by simply throwing them gently into the air – nine times out of ten they start flying. If they don’t (as long as you’ve been gentle, and made sure there’s a soft landing beneath them), see if you can perch it in a safe place (again, bear in mind it might topple off).
If it’s SO stunned neither of those work, keep it in a safe, warm, dark place for an hour or so and try again.
If none of the above, it’s cactus.
Thanks lizzie. Its head is up now and eyes open, so hopefully it will revive and be ok.
As the Hockey/Abbott take Australia deeper into debt with their continued borrowing and plans to increase the debt ceiling we see them doing nothing to address the issue.
Their borrowing is around $2 billion a week and they are paying more and more interest on that money.
They are doing nothing to address the lie of the budget emergency.
TALL – Tony Abbott Liberal Liar
vic
Poor devils I do not know how on earth you would cope with losing everything.
All personal possessions lost all precious things and your house as well.
Just heard a psychologist on ABC saying that no one wants to wear someone else’s clothes unless they absolutely have to so offer money to them so they can choose something for themselves.
I think with the dry weather and no decent rain we are going to see very many more of these disasters.
I feel so sorry for them all.
zoomster:
It’ll be okay sitting on the porch for a while. I’ll check it again in a little bit, but there are signs it is getting over the shock.
Connie
Try mouth to mouth 🙂
The life of Kerry Stokes very interesting.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/behind-the-veil-20131014-2vhbo.html
[TALL – Tony Abbott Liberal Liar]
I like it!
*Caulfield Cup day, have a good one 🙂
Lizzie, you are so right and I mostly succeed in ignoring Sean.
[If it’s SO stunned neither of those work, keep it in a safe, warm, dark place for an hour or so and try again.]
I wonder if this would work on our serial pests?
Dio
You mentioned on the previous thread the future of Don Farrell.
My mail is he will take Alex Gallacher’s place in the Senate when Senator Gallacher retires to move into the SA Legislative Council after the next SA State Election when the next ALP SDA Right Upper House MP retires, whomever that may be, or if Bernie Finnigan is convicted and expelled from Parliament first.
Not much holding of breath on the latter.
There are two difference and somewhat overlapping issues.
The CC debate has been and will be an on-going debate, this week in every interview senior members of the ALP have been asked their position on Tone’s purposed repealing of the carbon tax.
That debate is fully appropriate and at this point the ALP appear to have handled those questions well.
Adam Bandt’s comment was to use a situation to make a direct political attack whilst the event was happening.
Earlier Zoomster used the debate around tougher sentences which occurred during recent high profile murder cases to demonstrate the fine line between a worthy debate and sensitive.
It is a good example of the fine line, it is also part of the reason behind the court’s decision to imposed an suppression order on the reporting of the accursed criminal record for it knew that this person had an extensive record.
Some have asked if not now, when.
I think this question overlooks the actual CC debate is on-going so the debate about the need for a price on carbon remains active.
Lets take a look at Bandt’s tweet
Adam Bandt @AdamBandt 16 Oct
Why Tony Abbott’s plan means more bushfires for Australia & more pics like this of Sydney
—————————————————
This tweet was made at the very height of the bushfires on Wednesday.
A better tweet would have been
Tragic fires sad reminder of the need for action on CC starting with a price on carbon
—————————————————-
If he couldn’t fit that into 140 then he could have made a series of tweets which then may have provided some scope to mention the government’s policy (or lack off)
More sensible analysis here:
[In truth, Julia Gillard and everyone in Labor owes Kevin Rudd a debt of gratitude. Had Rudd not recaptured the leadership in June and had Gillard been left to lead the party to the election, there is no doubt Labor faced a disaster of Costa Concordia proportions. Instead, the electoral annihilation signposted by all the opinion polls was averted. The good ship Labor is holed but still afloat and has an outside chance of sailing to victory in three years if it is smart about healing itself and if Abbott’s fortunes unravel.
Rudd failed to deliver the electoral miracle the temporary spike in the polls that greeted his return to the leadership suggested might be possible. But he did save the proverbial furniture, including the seats of a number of senior MPs vital to Labor’s reconstruction and electoral rehabilitation. And instead of being remembered as a deeply unpopular and divisive leader responsible for one of Labor’s worst ever defeats, Gillard is now able to claim the martyrdom of being removed by her party rather than the people: the first woman prime minister, who had three years in office and never lost an election.
Yes, Rudd and his supporters did run a relentless rear-guard campaign against Gillard’s leadership, but that was not the primary cause of her downfall. It was her own frequent policy and tactical blunders and her abject failure to ever win the support and affection of the majority of Australians that was her undoing.]
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/kevin-the-sinner-julia-the-saint-its-not-the-full-story-20131018-2vseq.html#ixzz2i7pv5XoG
[Just heard a psychologist on ABC saying that no one wants to wear someone else’s clothes unless they absolutely have to so offer money to them so they can choose something for themselves.]
Absolutely right. It’s not charity to bundle up all the old rags your own family won’t wear and expect people who are deeply traumatised to be ‘grateful’.
After the Victorian fires a few years back I got myself into a blazing online row by saying exactly this. People could not see why anyone would want money to buy a new Tshirt or undies when they could have old ones ‘donated’ by a stranger.
Back then charities appealed for money and continually put out statements saying ‘please stop sending goods’ but people took no notice. In the end charities had warehouses full of ‘stuff’ they had to pay to store. Heaven knows what happened to it all. I suspect a lot was simply dumped. People were actually offended by the thought charities might sell their donated old clothes to raise money rather than hand it all over to a fire victim. We are a weird lot.
I know sometimes it’s our first thought – How can I help? They must need clothes and bedding, I’ll just go through the cupboards….but think about it. What would you want if you had just lost everything? Money to buy new things or someone’s old clothing?
PITY
Murdoch survives attempt to oust him
A GROUP of disgruntled shareholders has failed to oust Rupert Murdoch as chairman of his new TV and film conglomerate 21st Century Fox.
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/world/murdoch-survives-attempt-to-oust-him/story-e6frfkui-1226742864619
Confessions,
[It’ll be okay sitting on the porch for a while. I’ll check it again in a little bit, but there are signs it is getting over the shock]
Tell it you’re going to bring it to the vet and it has to pay the bill itself.
Make sure you don’t get in the way.
leone
a bit off topic, but I’m reminded of that lovely scene in the Alicia Silverstone movie which was a modern version of ‘Emma’ — her father catches her throwing her skies into a pile for earthquake victims, and asks her why, and she replies, very earnestly, “They’ve lost everything, Daddy. Including ski equipment.”
Wealth is relative and hence, so are our preferred choices.
Ship that stuff to Manila and not a single item would ever get anywhere near a tip.
Labor’s Richard Marles calls for Immigration Minister Scott Morrison to reveal details of Manus Island ‘security incident’
Opposition immigration spokesman Richard Marles says the Federal Government must come clean about a security incident at the Manus Island processing centre.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-19/opposition-calls-for-morrison-to-details-27security-incident2/5033124
[Labor has been letting unprocessed illegals out willy nilly on the street.. there are now 25,000 of them.
The Coalition have to deal with Labors mess now.
Oh BTW, TPV’s do allow work but restrict welfare.. perhaps you should do your homework next time.]
These are real questions, but Sean quite confused about the basics.
A bridging visa is granted by DIAC. It make your presence here lawful. What part of “this is a visa” dont you get? A bridging visa is a visa you get while another claim is being processed.
So, people on bridging visas will either be found to be refugees, or they wont.
If they arent, they get deported or put in detention, becuase THEN they are here unlawfully.
If they are refugeess, putting them on TPVs is a stupid policy. pointless cruelty. As several UNSW studies found, TPVs led to an epidemic of mental illness among a group of people who are never likely to be able go anywhere else, because of permanently insecure tenure. Why would we want to promote mental illness among a group that will be permanently here in our community? Its an own goal.
As for deterrance, TPVs had the opposite effect: it attracted higher numbers of boat arrivals, by denying family reunion, forcing women and children onto boats or they’d never see their husbands and fathers again. As a deterrent it was probably the single biggest failure in immigration policy history.
Not that thats relevant, since its being used on people already here. Its just a worthless turd of policy.
Not that the ALP policy of ‘no advantage’ for this group was much better – they have to wait forever to get processed, but at least when they were,they were given a permanent visa. In the meantime they got 89% of the dole and couldnt work.
[“Once Bill Shorten and his front bench start filling the airwaves with negative nagging, Abbott and Credlin will have no choice but to respond, and let some of their ministers off the leash.”]
Where are these “airwaves”? Somebody needs to tell Kohler that he’s dreaming’.
Labor Party shadow cabinet criticisms of PM Abbott and his ministers certainly won’t be prominently reported in the print media or on commercial television news, so that just leaves a precious few ABC radio and television programs and online news organs, like Crikey, whose audiences are mainly dyed in the wool supporters of their party of choice.
And Alan K is not the only Liberal sympathiser slamming Abbott and his media mistress over secrecy.
Usual, persistent and largely nasty, Liberal party mouthpiece in Perth, Paul Murray in his twice-weekly free kick for the conservatives in the West newspaper, is warning him: “Being kept in the dark is viewed dimly”
It is worth quoting extracts from Murray – who I can’t stand – for the benefit of our slogan-dominated Tory hacks here, as he is one of theirs.
He says, in part:
“While I am no fan of opinion polls dominating politics, Mr Abbott is yet to deal in office with the phenomenon of rapidly falling public sentiment.
Tough as he is, he may find out early next week….that Newspoll can be a very heavy burden.”
He then goes on to talk about Abbott’s secrecy attempts.
“‘Happy is the country with more interest in sport than politics because this shows there is fundamental unity’, Mr Abbott said in the early days in office.
It is a cute line, but hides a ugly truth, Australians don’t like their politics played in the dark.”
Then this great line:
“There is no fundamental unity in the national discourse.”
And then the killer line:
“Mr Abbott is a highly divisive figure.”
Murray concludes:
“He needs to win trust not rely on the “trust me” message that lurks behind that immature line about sport.”
To think, just 5 weeks or so after a “thumping election win”, with parliament yet to sit, with Labor only just sorting itself out, one of the most strident voices for the conservative cause in the Perth media has stuck the boots into Abbott already.
It is no surprise there is a huge picture of both Abbott and Barnett over the piece as there is meant to be a dig at Barnett himself hiding away from the media.
It is an oddity that both of these Liberals have media mistresses telling them what to do – Peta and Dixie.
The question for the Tory hacks is where to hide themselves after this thorough shafting by one of their own.
Fancy, just five weeks in. What a hoot!
I suspect the reason why financial donations are better is it allows the person to have some control over being able to walk around a shop and choose replacement for things which they have lost.
The impact of Black Saturday and such events can take a considerable period of time to recover from.
This week would be very difficult for many as it would be taking them back to the events of those days.
I really cant get over this idiocy:
http://theconversation.com/a-farewell-to-arts-on-philosophy-arc-funding-and-waste-19064
Hello! This is our 3rd largest export industry. Universities are right up their with mining and manufacturing in terms of generating income – carrying this economy for the other non-performing industries.
I guess the bozos making these claims wouldnt understand this, but research stringly infleunces the international rankings of unviersities. This in terms infleunces the number of OS students who want degrees here. This is Australia’s 3rd largest source of export income.
Stop vandalising encominc success. If you cant help the industry, unless do no harm to it. D*ckheads.
OR, at less turbo-ranty typing pace:
Stop vandalising economic success. If you cant help the industry, at least do no harm to it. D*ckheads.
[In truth, Julia Gillard and everyone in Labor owes Kevin Rudd a debt of gratitude.]
Honestly, I’m so fed up with this maudlin Ruddist nonsense that completely ignores the appalling way he and his spear carriers behaved for the entire period of Gillard’s leadership.
The stark reality is that the party will be much better off once Rudd is no longer in Caucus. I know it upsets Ruddists to hear this, but it really is time for him to retire.
[
lefty e
Posted Saturday, October 19, 2013 at 12:03 pm | Permalink
…
In truth, Julia Gillard and everyone in Labor owes Kevin Rudd a debt of gratitude.
]
Once again Rudd supporters boasting about how much damage they had done to Gillard and the party.
It really is a bit sickening.