UPDATE (Morgan poll): The latest Morgan multi-mode poll, which will be reporting fortnightly for the rest of the year at least, is a better result for the Coalition than the last, having their primary vote up 1.5% to 43.5%, Labor’s down 2.5% to 34.5%, the Greens up a point to 10%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. As was the case in the previous poll, there is an implausibly huge disparity between the respondent-allocated two-party result (51.5-48.5 to the Coalition) and that using 2013 election preferences (55-45), and as was the case last time, I can only conclude that something is going awry with the latter calculation. My own modelling of preference flows from the recent election produces a result of 51.5-48.5 from these results, exactly the same as the Morgan respondent-allocated preference figure.
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| Blue and red numbers (if any) respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the Liberal and Labor parties. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Cook covers southern Sydney suburbs to the south of the Georges River, including Kurnell, Cronulla, Miranda and Sylvania. The electorate was created in 1969 to accommodate post-war suburban development, the area having previously been accommodated by Hughes from its creation in 1955 and Werriwa beforehand (an unrelated seat called Cook covered inner southern Sydney from 1906 to 1955). There has been little geographical change to the electorate since its creation, its boundaries being set by Botany Bay and Georges River in the north and Port Hacking in the south, but its character has transformed from marginal mortgage belt to affluent and safe Liberal. The seat’s inaugural member was Donald Dobie, who had won the hitherto Labor-held seat of Hughes for the Liberals with the 1966 landslide, but he was unseated in 1972 by Labor’s Ray Thornburn. Dobie again contested the seat in 1974 and 1975, suffering a second narrow defeat on the first occasion and winning easily on the second. Thornburn followed Dobie’s example in twice recontesting the seat in 1977 and 1980, but like all future Labor candidates he was unsuccessful. Dobie prevailed by 148 votes when the Fraser government was defeated in 1983, and the closest margin since has been 3.5% in 1993.
Dobie was succeeded upon his retirement at the 1996 election by Stephen Mutch, who had been a member of the state upper house since 1988. Mutch fell victim after one term to an exercise of power by the party’s moderate faction, which at first backed local barrister Mark Speakman, who had been best man at Mutch’s wedding nine years earlier. The resulting dispute ended with the installation of another noted moderate, Bruce Baird, who had been a senior minister through the Greiner-Fahey NSW government from 1988 to 1995. Mutch’s demise greatly displeased John Howard, who pointedly failed to promote Baird at any point in his nine years in Canberra. It also did not help that Baird was close to Peter Costello, and was spoken of as his potential deputy when fanciful leadership speculation emerged in early 2001. After reports that growing Right control of local branches was putting his preselection in jeopardy, the 65-year-old Baird announced he would bow out at the 2007 election.
Even before Baird’s retirement announcement there was talk of him being succeeded by Scott Morrison, former state party director and managing director of Tourism Australia. According to Steve Lewis in The Australian, Morrison boasted “glowing references from a who’s who of Liberal luminaries, including Defence Minister Brendan Nelson, Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull, former Liberal president Shane Stone, Howard’s long-time chief of staff Arthur Sinodinos, and Nick Minchin, the Finance Minister and another close ally of Howard”. However, it quickly became clear that such support would not avail him without the backing of the Right, which had been successfully courted by local numbers man Michael Towke. Imre Salusinsky of The Australian reported that Morrison was further starved of support when moderates resolved to resist Towke by digging in behind their own candidate, Optus executive Paul Fletcher, later to emerge as member for Bradfield.
The ensuing preselection ballot saw Towke defeat Fletcher in the final round by 82 votes to 70, with Morrison finishing well back in a field that included several other well-credentialled candidates. However, Towke’s preselection success met powerful resistance from elements of the party hierarchy, whom conservative Sydney Morning Herald columnist Paul Sheahan credited with a series of damaging reports in the Daily Telegraph. The reports accused Towke of branch-stacking and embellishing his CV, culminating in the headline, “party split as Liberal candidate faces jail” (a defamation action brought by Towke against the paper was eventually settled in his favour). It was further reported that Towke had been the victim of a whispering campaign relating to how his Lebanese heritage would play in the electorate that played host to the 2005 Cronulla riots (Towke’s surname being a recently adopted Anglicisiation of Taouk). The party’s state executive narrowly passed a resolution to remove Towke as candidate, and a new preselection involving representatives of local branches and the state executive duly delivered victory to Scott Morrison.
Morrison was quickly established as a senior figure in a Liberal Party newly consigned to opposition, winning promotion to the front bench as Shadow Housing and Local Government Minister when Malcolm Turnbull became leader in September 2008 and securing the high-profile immigration and citizenship portfolio when Turnbull was deposed by Tony Abbott in December 2009. He further gained productivity and population after the 2010 election, before having his political role sharpened with the title of Immigration and Border Protection Minister following the 2013 election victory.
How much has Hockey borrowed since the election?
Kevjohnno, I’m sure Peta gets more done when Tony’s out of the office. But she must be constantly nervous about when he’ll put both feet in his mouth again.
She must have been relieved yesterday. The ‘very, very big fire’ remark was ridiculous but not disastrous. And he managed to avoid, as far as I know, any embarrassing questions about rorts.
This seems already to be the way in which this government is to be judged: ‘Phew! It wasn’t as bad as it might have been.’ Look at the reporting of the Indonesian visit, for example: huge relief that at least this time Tone didn’t put his feet on the table.
AA
Since the election Hockey has borrowed $13.9 billion dollars.
When parliament resumes one of the first items on the agenda will be raising our debt ceiling from $300 billion to $400 billion. This is not a bad thing, but Mr Eleventy spent years whining about budget emergencies and swearing he’d vote against any Labor moves to raise the debt ceiling. Now there’s no emergency and he is about to perform a most spectacular double backflip with pike and twist.
The pregnant women off to Nauru scheme explained by Barryj over the road
[Leonetwo,
Yesterday you raised the subject of Morrison rounding up pregnant asylum seekers and sending them to Nauru. This is linked to the re-introduction of TPVs,
Under TPVs there is no prospect of permanent settlement, However under citizenship laws, a child born in Australia to non citizen parents attains Australian citizenship on their 10th birthday provided a majority of those ten years are spent here.
Morrison is trying to cover the possibility that the family could still be here on a TPV ten years after the child is born.
We would then have the situation of the child recognised as an Australian but not the parents, possibly causing difficult circumstances for the government.
Morrison’s solution; no asylum seekers to give birth in Australia.
How low can we go!!]
City of Adelaide ship ceremony celebrating migration.
Oops not told Morrison
First off let me say that I am not a supporter of the Greens. Some of their policies I concur with but the way they conduct the politics is childish and counterproductive. The best that I can say is that they a better than the LNP.
However, the comments of Bandt concerning the fires in the Blue mountains and the nexus to climate change is spot on and as far as I am concerned it was at precisely the right moment.
When I see the comments of those who disagree I am starkly reminded of similar comments in the USA concerning the continued killing of their mostly children by gun nuts.
I live in the heart of the area that has been affected by fire and Brandt’s comments are spot on. If we continue to tread climate change as a minor or nonexistent problem conditions that we (I) experienced this week will only get worse.
leone
Posted Saturday, October 19, 2013 at 9:35 am | Permalink
AA
Since the election Hockey has borrowed $13.9 billion dollars.
When parliament resumes one of the first items on the agenda will be raising our debt ceiling from $300 billion to $400 billion. This is not a bad thing, but Mr Eleventy spent years whining about budget emergencies and swearing he’d vote against any Labor moves to raise the debt ceiling. Now there’s no emergency and he is about to perform a most spectacular double backflip with pike and twist.
=====================================================
Exactly. Lying hypocrites. (and that’s being kind as what I really want to say would not be suitable for here)
Since the election Hockey has borrowed $13.9 billion dollars.
When parliament resumes one of the first items on the agenda will be raising our debt ceiling from $300 billion to $400 billion.
=============================================
At the rate of borrowing it makes the $7 billion “better off” look like small change that is found between the cushions on the couch.
[Labor’s carbon tax bind: surrender or die fighting
She’s offered it only within the confines of the government, but word is Peta Credlin has some world-weary advice for rookie Labor leader Bill Shorten: if you’re serious about making Labor competitive again in 2016, you best swallow hard, take a deep breath, and turn your back on carbon pricing. And you best do it now.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/labors-carbon-tax-bind-surrender-or-die-fighting-20131018-2vs3h.html#ixzz2i6TNRNUo
]
This is the exactly the same as ‘Tokyo Rose’ broadcasting to US soldiers in WW2 “you won’t win and you should surrender now before you are decimated”. Peta might consider what happened subsequent to that gratuitous advice.
THANK YOU Victoria for transferring ALL those links for Mari and myself – William does it EVERY TIME ! – just finish posting then he adds a new thread and it knocks all out of whack. I had to race off just after posting – so again THANK YOU for your welcome help !!!!! 🙂
BK – no doubt about it – YOU DA MAN, BRO ….. 😉
These LNP drongos don’t appear to realise that international quality research informs international quality rankings for unis, which drive international student enrolments – which in turn is Australia’s 3RD LARGEST export industry: much bigger earner than either agriculture or tourism.
http://theconversation.com/a-farewell-to-arts-on-philosophy-arc-funding-and-waste-19064
WHY VANDALISE ONE OF OUR LARGEST INDUSTRIES?
On Bandt’s recent tweet, and Abbott, it all reminds me of the Archbishop of Brazil’s Helder Camara’s famous quote:
“When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why the poor have no food, they call me a communist.”
citizen@59
What bullshit from the Libs!
I prefer the line from the Redgum song:
“If you don’t fight – you lose.”
A bit more on Hockey’s hypocrisy on borrowings.
http://theaimn.com/2013/10/19/hockey-to-lift-debt-ceiling-by-33-and-the-hypocrisy-level-to-an-all-time-high/
[no
Plan how to pay except raise taxes or debt.]
And you know a liberal government has never paid for anything with either debt or taxes … oh wait you are trying to out dumb Sean, great work.
ratsars
Further to that, one of the predictions made by climate scientists is that we’ll see more and more incidences where one extreme climate event is followed by another, making it not only very difficult for communities to cope but also meaning that – if the ‘let this die down before we discuss it’ rule applies – no one will ever get around to talking about it.
We had a dramatic example of that scenario in our small town a few years ago. A mini tornado ripped through town, damaging several buildings. Before we’d had time to start regrouping, we had the longest lasting, biggest (in terms of area burnt – nearly 95% of our shire was burnt) fires in sixty years, followed by flash flooding which claimed a life.
Dealing with the fire meant that the general community ‘forgot’ about the devastation caused by the mini tornado, which was very real to those affected by it.
I’ve said this before – the advice is to have a post disaster action plan in place BEFORE the disaster, because the best time to persuade people to put it in place is immediately after, whilst events are still fresh in their minds, and they haven’t invested time and money in restoring the status quo.
For example, resettling and rebuilding New Orleans might not have been the best idea in the long run. If authorities had hit the ground running, declaring that no one was to return to the city and encouraging the building of a ‘New New Orleans’ elsewhere, an alternative might have been possible. But once people started moving back, it wasn’t.
The same applies to political action – just as the drownings off Christmas Island galvanised people into demanding action on asylum seekers, events such as this should be used to galvanise public opinion to demand action on climate change (real, not Direct).
Labor should adopt Abbotts position on mandates
Dr Nelson is right to resist the intellectual bullying inherent in talk of ‘mandates’.”: Tony Abbott, 2007.
For people closely involved with the bushfires, Bandts comments were probably too soon and insensitive but for the rest of us they were appropriate.
Bandt’s problem is his hypocrisy. He criticised commentators who pointed to asylum seeker policy when people had drowned off Christmas Island as being insensitive and political point scoring over tragedy.
He can hardly complain when the same happens to him.
Correction: Bandt is the member for…Loon Central.
badcat
No worries. 🙂
This was also linked on previous thread by frednk. Recommend watching from the 7 minute mark. Rachel Maddow sums up the whole shutdown saga very well
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/17/rachel-maddow-shutdown-republican-chart_n_4114662.html?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular
Carbon Price
Environment Minister Greg Hunt could find no other justification for repealing other than to say that Abbott had said he would. – See more at: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/bill-shorten-can-make-tony-abbott-look-silly-on-carbon-pricing-87571#sthash.bOVS7OKN.dpuf
Abbott and his Liberal sycophants stand alone internationally of climate change
In just the past week, the world’s major international economic institutions have lined up firmly in favour of a carbon price. China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, is headed down the same path. The OECD says consistent carbon pricing must be the cornerstone of government actions to tackle climate change. “In our view, any policy response to climate change by any country must have at its core a plan to steadily make carbon emissions more expensive while, at the same time, judiciously giving non-fossil energy and energy efficiency an advantage at the margin. This is fundamental,” said Angel Gurria, the secretary of the OECD. The OECD’s position was supported by both the International Monetary Fund and the World bank.
citizen@59
Repent credlin. Repent!
This from Wendy Harmer
[Whether or not it’s unseemly for Greens politicians to raise the spectre of future cataclysmic climate change when bushfires are still raging out of control, there’s no doubt that many of us who looked up to bruised and belligerent skies swirling with ash and a drift of incinerated gum leaves had to wonder, ”is this what the future will be like”?]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/climate-change-ship-heads-into-uncharted-waters-20131018-2vs3f.html#ixzz2i7UQrvFm
Crank don’t be silly.
The deficit is purely due to revenue shortfalls.
Initiatives such as the NDIS and Gonski will be funded by recoveries in the global economy.
Note: Treasury was just as accurate or inaccurate under Howard/Cossie, but the difference was they kept getting revenue revisions on the up side thanks to a certain big mining boom.
[Last night our government brought back TVPs.]
Good. TPV’s helped stop the boats.
TPV’s were recommended by the ALP’s “expert panel” who told them to cut off family reunions. Well while Labor talked, the Coalition are actually taking action.
Sorry if this has been linked before
[Some senior advisers in the Abbott Government are furious after being told by the Prime Minister’s chief of staff that they will not be getting a pay rise.
That is despite their bosses receiving much larger salaries that come with moving from opposition into the ministry.
Several Coalition staff members have told the ABC’s AM program it is another example of the power wielded by Peta Credlin in Tony Abbott’s office.
AM has spoken to several disgruntled staffers who have accused the Prime Minister’s Office of ruthlessly exercising power and “shafting” them.
After six years of hard work in opposition, they say they are now expected to take on more responsibility, much more work, many more hours with far more scrutiny and pressure – all without a pay rise.]
Good to see the Independent Budget Office says the Coalitions pre-election budget numbers actually make the budget $10 Billion better off than the Coalition predicted.
!95 homes lost in the recent NSW bushfires and another 93 with fire damage. One man deceased.
195
The Weekend Australian applied for the incoming government brief, or “blue book”, under Freedom of Information laws, but was informed yesterday the documents were wholly exempt. That is a significant and alarming departure from tradition — Treasury briefs were released under Labor.
When Senator Brandis was in opposition, The Weekend Australian repeatedly tried to ascertain his views on FOI, without success. Yesterday’s statement came only after eight requests for comment over the course of the past 10 days and the statement did not answer a question about Senator Brandis’s position on open government.
Liberal Motto – SSHHHH – don’t tell them anything.
[The pregnant women off to Nauru scheme explained by Barryj over the road]
It’s actually quite simple.
EVERYONE goes. EVERYONE. No If’s, No But’s, EVERYONE Goes.
The days of Labors lottery pick Asylum Seeker processing are over folks.
And what was it.. 350 babies are born in Nauru every year at the local hospital? What makes the illegals so important they need access to the best hospitals in Australia? These people are not Australian.
If Australia is no longer settling people who arrive by boat, then why are TPVs needed?
mtbw
Hoping that is the worst of what is expected.
If weather conditions deteriorate over the summer season, things could get worse.
Black Saturday in 2009 is the example of how bad things can get
The ALPs expert panel also recommended the Malaysian solution.
[If Australia is no longer settling people who arrive by boat, then why are TPVs needed?]
To deal with the 25,000 illegals who are currently on the Australian mainland whom Labor brought in with their onshore processing after they lost control of our borders.
The $7.15 billion better off we are supposed to be is achived by
Not through good fiscal management but by cutting;
abolishing the mining tax supplementary allowance and the Schoolkids Bonus, re-phasing the Superannuation Guarantee (SG) increase and not proceeding with the low income superannuation contribution.
Other major contributions to the increases in the underlying cash and fiscal balances include the commitment to reduce the public service headcount by 12,000 through natural attrition, and the commitment to limit growth in foreign aid spending in line with inflation
the commitment Fair Indexation of Military Super would decrease the Commonwealth’s net worth by $4.4 billion by 2016-17.
What a contradiction. If everyone goes to Nauru or PNG, TPVs should not be necessary.
Surely TPVs send the wrong signal to people smugglers that maybe the opportunity exists to get to Australia.
Tisme, the Liberals are all smoke and mirrors.
Sean,
The boats have not stopped arriving under the Libs. Demonising these people and proving your inner bastard is the same as your outer bastard doesn’t change the reality.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/boat-carrying-about-60-asylum-seekers-arrives-at-christmas-island-20131017-2vokx.html
CC
Excellent. There will now be no need for Hockey to beg for the debt ceiling to be raised.
The only difference as it stands between the two parties on border protection is that Abbott pretends that he will turn back the boats.
Diogs,
Everyone knows people go in to politics and political service to selflessly make lives better for all Australians.
[What a contradiction. If everyone goes to Nauru or PNG, TPVs should not be necessary.]
OMG Contradiction!!!
There are 25,000 unprocessed illegals Labor brought onto the mainland. What a mess, now the coalition have to clean it up.
Bridging Visas will now be scrapped and TPV’s introduced so that illegals can work for their supper rather than being paid by the Aussie taxpayer and are on a pathway back to home not an Aussie visa(TPV’s are temporary and include the ability to deport anytime)
Why is Hockey raising the debt ceiling if we are in a budget emergency, it doesn’t make sense?
So are we now have more Liberal debt?
Interesting piece from Kohler this morning, paywalled but here is some of the interesting bits –
[ Each successive Australian Government seems to want to impose stricter internal controls than the last.
…..I’ve watched this process from about 1970 on:
Billy McMahon’s cabinet was almost totally dysfunctional the whole time;
Whitlam’s was a rabble, but slightly less so than McMahon’s and of course fell apart in 1975;
Fraser exercised a bit more control of media relations but by the recession of 1982 the wheels were off;
Hawke took it to a new level, mainly because of his own popularity with the Press Gallery, but the rivalry with Keating undermined it;
Keating had a pretty tight media process that largely seemed to involve him ringing editors and bollocking them colourfully for hours on end (including me);
Howard started with an absolute media lockdown that fell apart as the rivalry with Costello got going (after Howard turned 64 and failed to retire);
Rudd was an obsessive media controller, and tried to get everything to go through his office, but he was too controlling and got sacked because of it;
Gillard tried to control things but Rudd was leaking against her the whole time so she had no hope; and now there’s Tony Abbott.
Abbott and his chief of staff, Peta Credlin, are trying to control everything, including ministerial staff appointments. Ministers are being told when and how often to speak (not very often). It seems to be the most controlling PM’s office yet.
Well, good luck with that, is all I can say. The most likely thing is that the leaking will start earlier than usual because ministers and their staff are less than gruntled at having been swept to power only to find themselves prisoners of Nurse Credlin in One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest.
Alternatively, or perhaps also, the wheels of government will grind slowly to a halt because with everything having to go through the PM’s office, the place gets clagged up.
It’s a real problem, actually. The modern practice of politics has itself been shaped by the evolution of the media, with a constant 24-hour news cycle, bitter competition between inexpert journalists, and powerful radio hosts. In responding to this political leaders naturally try to gain, and keep, control.
But central control for media purposes is anathema to good government, which requires a Cabinet of equals operating in an environment of trust, respect and transparency. No one has managed to get this right for the past 20 years, partly because the media is itself changing so rapidly
I think Abbott’s idea of running a lower profile government with fewer announcements is not bad, but it won’t last. It’s only worked so far because the Labor Opposition has been distracted with its own leadership ballot.
Once Bill Shorten and his front bench start filling the airwaves with negative nagging, Abbott and Credlin will have no choice but to respond, and let some of their ministers off the leash.]
Rudd announced that no person who arrives by boat will be settled in Australia, either permanently or temporarily. I assumed the Liberals accepted this, and were happy for the deals with PNG and Nauru to continue.
In which case TPVs are not necessary. It just looks like another stunt.
Tisme
Stop spinning.
The purpose of TPVs was to stop the boats. The boats keep arriving however!
GG
I’d disagree with that. But some do.