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| Blue and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the Liberal and Labor parties. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Held by the Liberals without interruption since 1984, Casey covers Melbourne’s eastern suburban fringe at Lilydale, Kilsyth and Monbulk, together with the Yarra Valley townships of Yarra Glen, Healesville and Warburton and unpopulated Yarra Ranges areas further afield. The suburban areas are Liberal-leaning, middle-income and culturally homogenous, with an above-average number of mortgage payers. Outcrops of Labor support further afield coincide with lower incomes at Healesville, a “tree-changer” tendency around Monbulk, and a combination of the two at Warburton (the Greens outpolled Labor at the 2013 election at the Warburton booth and The Patch just south of Monbulk). Healesville and Warburton were added with the redistribution before the 2013 election, which further cut the Liberal margin through the transfer of Croydon and Ringwood to Menzies and Deakin.
Casey was oriented further westwards when it was created in 1969, extending northwards from Ringwood to Kinglake. The bulk of the modern electorate remained in La Trobe, the area having previously been divided between it and Deakin. Casey assumed approximately its current dimensions when the expansion of parliament in 1984 pushed it further east into the Yarra Valley, and the 1990 redistribution added some of its present outer suburbs territory. The seat has been in Liberal hands outside of two interruptions, from 1972 to 1975 and 1983 to 1984. The inaugural member was Peter Howson, who had previously held the abolished inner urban electorate of Fawkner since 1951. Race Mathews won the seat for Labor with the election of the Whitlam government, and after being unseated in 1975 entered state politics as member for Oakleigh in 1979. Peter Falcolner held the seat for the Liberals through the Fraser years, before being unseated by Labor’s Peter Steedman when the Hawke government came to power in 1983.
Steedman was in turn unseated after a single term by Robert Halverson in 1984, with some assistance from redistribution, and the seat has been in Liberal hands ever since. Halverson’s retirement in 1998 made the seat available as a safe haven for Howard government Health Minister Michael Wooldridge, whose position in Chisholm had been weakened by redistribution in 1996. However, Wooldridge only served a single term before quitting politics at the 2001 election, at which time he was succeeded by Tony Smith. During Smith’s tenure the Liberal margin broke double digits for only the second time at the 2004 election, but he went into the 2013 election with a margin of only 1.9% following successive swings and an unfavourable redistribution. He nonetheless retained the seat easily on the back of a statewide Liberal swing that pushed his margin out to 7.2%.
Smith’s entry to politics came via a staff position with Peter Costello, with whom he remained closely associated. After the 2007 election defeat he won promotion to the shadow cabinet in the education portfolio, but Malcolm Turnbull demoted him to Assistant Treasurer when he became leader in September 2008. Smith formed part of the front-bench exodus in the final days of Turnbull’s leadership, together with Tony Abbott and Nick Minchin, in protest against Turnbull’s support for an emissions trading scheme. He duly emerged a strong backer of Abbott in the ensuing leadership contest, and returned to shadow cabinet in broadband and communications. However, Smith was widely thought to have struggled during the 2010 campaign and was demoted after the election for a second time, this time down to parliamentary secretary level. With the election of the Abbott government he was dropped altogether, making way for the promotion of fellow Victorians Josh Frydenberg and Alan Tudge.
Friday for portfolio allocation.
Why so long?
Feck off Cosgrove for GG .
Anyone But Howard for GG, surely?
Stupid question. The contest is now Labor vs coalition, not Shorten v Albo.
Yes, Cosgrove may be a boofhead, but at least he’s not Howard.
Fran Barlow@599
I withdraw the remark which was never meant to be taken seriously and certainly never meant to hurt your feelings or offend in any way.
[confessions
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 3:34 pm | PERMALINK
Oh I see ……. 100% of the 15 k who didn’t vote were going to vote for Shorten.
11K didn’t vote. Not 15K.
Mod Lib’s maths is out.]
Show me where I said 15k didnt vote or withdraw*
*as if you would have that much character, but it was worth a shot anyway! :devil:
confessions@603
We are in furious agreement on that confessions.
Mod Lib is nothing more than a bandwidth thief.
I like tgat from Shorten.
We are not in the business of rescuing the government from itself
Piss off Mod Lib. Go and play your stupid games with someone who gives a shit about them.
[confessions
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 4:02 pm | PERMALINK
Piss off Mod Lib. Go and play your stupid games with someone who gives a shit about them.]
Wow, expletive after expletive.
It was you that made an unsubstantiated allegation against me, I just called you out.
You responded with insults…..says it all really.
“@Simon_Cullen: RT @MarkDiStef: Hundreds of people have been evacuated from the Sydney Olympic swimming centre due a huge fire in carpark. 20 cars on fire.”
[Show me where I said 15k didnt vote or withdraw*]
Show me where the RBA says their inflation target is exactly 2.5% or withdraw.
ML:
That you’ve completely misinterpreted my response to psyclaw is your problem not mine.
[Wow, expletive after expletive.
It was you that made an unsubstantiated allegation against me, I just called you out.
You responded with insults…..says it all really.]
OH NO! Mod Lib is upset! How terrible! We can’t hurt her feelings!
The pre election Mod Lib seems waaay different to the post election Mod Lib. This supports my theory that Mod Lib has been kidnapped by aliens. Then , after much traditional anal probing, a clone was returned to the PB lounge.
ShowsOn@616
Careful Shows, you might make her cry!
Shorten short-comings
_______________
I suspect the Govt will portray Shorten as a party boss..and if the stories of the Right in caucus showing each other their ballots is true that will give then a stick to beat him with
I think he is no great performer in the House whereas Albenese is and was in the past…pretty low wattage in the charisma area too
However new LOTO after a defeat seldom win at the nest election .
All will depend on how badly Abbott goes
Good speech by Shorten.
I hope Plibersek is elected deputy.
[Careful Shows, you might make her cry!]
Clearly she already is crying.
Hasn’t Howard already said NO to the GG job?
Finally!!
24 has Doug Cameron on to comment on leadership. Not a Lib or talking head
[confessions
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 4:05 pm | PERMALINK
ML:
That you’ve completely misinterpreted my response to psyclaw is your problem not mine.]
Haha :)….Oh really?
Check this out:
[confessions
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 3:34 pm | PERMALINK
Oh I see ……. 100% of the 15 k who didn’t vote were going to vote for Shorten.
11K didn’t vote. Not 15K.
Mod Lib’s maths is out.]
What part of “Mod Lib’s maths is out” is justified by any of my posts? If you can’t provide any such post then withdraw (its OK, I know that is too much for you to manage) :devil:
A quick note on return from an event from Grayndler members
Most / all would of course have liked to see Albo win and have worked hard to promote that result
All are proud of the two quality candidates we had – for the exemplary way in which they conducted themselves
All are proud of having had a proper process – as compared to the one where Abbott turned traitor to Turnbull and won by one vote in the absence of a Turnbull supporting member who was working to support her bushfire ravaged electorate (all true, dont try me on trolls)
All remain united in fighting for the planet: against the disgusting Murdoch and his local minions including Abbott
Albo was magnificent!
[Clearly she already is crying.]
Is crying PB alternate reality speech for laughing out loud? Cos that is what I am doing, given I have multiple people who have made false accusations against me with egg on their faces all at the same time…..its growse!
Plus we have the Backstabber lock in as the LOTO, free kicks galore for the next 3 years!
[Hasn’t Howard already said NO to the GG job?]
If he did I haven’t see it.
I see many of those who underestimated Abbott are now underestimating Shorten, who, by the way, won with 52.02% of the vote.
bemused
[I withdraw the remark which was never meant to be taken seriously and certainly never meant to hurt your feelings or offend in any way.]
Thanks …
MM:
Thanks for that. I do hope Caucus unites behind the new leadership.
First Tone being a right wing nut mate of Pell didn’t hurt him so why would Shorten be hurt by being a so called factional leader.
Second the ALP got t right, i think Shorten will be competitive against Tone
Third Albo should be given a senor role
Fourth Wong or Lundy for leader of the senate
Fifth Ed Husic should be on the frontbench
MM
Great post!
Abbott could do something for his reputation is he were to nominate a woman for GG following Bryce’s excellent work in that role
However we known from his own actions that there is not a single coalition supportere worthy of cabinet rank and he probably won’t find a woman he approves of for GG either………
[poroti
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 4:06 pm | PERMALINK
The pre election Mod Lib seems waaay different to the post election Mod Lib. This supports my theory that Mod Lib has been kidnapped by aliens. Then , after much traditional anal probing, a clone was returned to the PB lounge.]
I think what has happened, is that the collective depression of the massive loss and the likely 2 or 3 terms in Opposition is making some people nasty and vindictive.
I stand up for myself, no matter how many people attack me, and like all schoolyard bullies, they really hate it when people stand up to them.
In case you have not noticed, I am only defending myself against attacks, as is my perfect right to do.
Have you noticed the things being said about me? Or do you just comment on what I say (which I think is pretty measured and controlled given what has been dished out at me as a matter of fact)!
Doogie on the Senate passing bills: ‘I think we’ve got to block stupidity.’
And i should add the ALP might be able to get away with dropping the but carbon price but should not back down on the need for an ETS.
I liked it when Shorten said that because of the campaign, he and Albo knew each other better and knew they would be able to work together more successfully in the future.
well it may well be the drovers’ dog can defeat abbott – hope so
two party leaders – one class bully and wrecker, other the undertaker, now in charge
the ballot only proved how undemocratic caucus and general leadership in this country is. dont trust people trust the machinations and in shorten’s case years of machiavellianism to get power. the man got rid of power in rudd, gave julia a go but always second bet on self. and hullo today.
rudd was not tough enough. 75% members. to end any ambiguity.
of course there are no favours or factions or obligation in caucus. of course. and who give am f about public or members.
frustration boils but even a well spoken dog might win
[hat part of “Mod Lib’s maths is out” is justified by any of my posts?]
The part where you claimed the RBA has an inflation target of exactly 2.5%.
The Liberals should introduce a member ballot for leadership.
Surely Tone heard Michael Kroger’s claim that Tone doesn’t have an enemy in the party.
“@denniallen: Congratulations @AlboMP … You would have been a great leader. Thank you for contesting with such dignity & humour.”
i mean arbib was banned but shorten leads. am i missing something? and the right still rules. tools.
[ShowsOn
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 4:04 pm | PERMALINK
Show me where I said 15k didnt vote or withdraw*
Show me where the RBA says their inflation target is exactly 2.5% or withdraw.]
You made the accusation against me that I had said the RBA sets an inflation target of “exactly” 2.5%. That is not what I said, I said that the Howard government achieved 2.5%.
If you have a post of mine where I said that the RBA sets the inflation target at exactly 2.5% you would post it.
You dont post it because I didnt say it.
Egg on your face!
jeez Abbott cannot take politics out of a conversation with the GG. What “political turbulence” did the GG have to deal with? Twerp.
mexican:
Shorten said it was important for the country to maintain a price on carbon.
Vote Rudd. Get Gillard.
Vote Gillard. Get Rudd.
Vote Albo. Get Shortend
[ShowsOn
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 4:15 pm | PERMALINK
hat part of “Mod Lib’s maths is out” is justified by any of my posts?
The part where you claimed the RBA has an inflation target of exactly 2.5%.]
An unsubstantiated and false allegation….not uncommon for you!
ru:
That’s his way of apologising to the GG for his behaviour as LOTO!
Actually the current vote structure indirectly does put pressure on the caucus for is Shorten starts to stuff up the MP’s will be dreading the local branch meetings.