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| Blue and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the Liberal and Labor parties. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Held by the Liberals without interruption since 1984, Casey covers Melbourne’s eastern suburban fringe at Lilydale, Kilsyth and Monbulk, together with the Yarra Valley townships of Yarra Glen, Healesville and Warburton and unpopulated Yarra Ranges areas further afield. The suburban areas are Liberal-leaning, middle-income and culturally homogenous, with an above-average number of mortgage payers. Outcrops of Labor support further afield coincide with lower incomes at Healesville, a “tree-changer” tendency around Monbulk, and a combination of the two at Warburton (the Greens outpolled Labor at the 2013 election at the Warburton booth and The Patch just south of Monbulk). Healesville and Warburton were added with the redistribution before the 2013 election, which further cut the Liberal margin through the transfer of Croydon and Ringwood to Menzies and Deakin.
Casey was oriented further westwards when it was created in 1969, extending northwards from Ringwood to Kinglake. The bulk of the modern electorate remained in La Trobe, the area having previously been divided between it and Deakin. Casey assumed approximately its current dimensions when the expansion of parliament in 1984 pushed it further east into the Yarra Valley, and the 1990 redistribution added some of its present outer suburbs territory. The seat has been in Liberal hands outside of two interruptions, from 1972 to 1975 and 1983 to 1984. The inaugural member was Peter Howson, who had previously held the abolished inner urban electorate of Fawkner since 1951. Race Mathews won the seat for Labor with the election of the Whitlam government, and after being unseated in 1975 entered state politics as member for Oakleigh in 1979. Peter Falcolner held the seat for the Liberals through the Fraser years, before being unseated by Labor’s Peter Steedman when the Hawke government came to power in 1983.
Steedman was in turn unseated after a single term by Robert Halverson in 1984, with some assistance from redistribution, and the seat has been in Liberal hands ever since. Halverson’s retirement in 1998 made the seat available as a safe haven for Howard government Health Minister Michael Wooldridge, whose position in Chisholm had been weakened by redistribution in 1996. However, Wooldridge only served a single term before quitting politics at the 2001 election, at which time he was succeeded by Tony Smith. During Smith’s tenure the Liberal margin broke double digits for only the second time at the 2004 election, but he went into the 2013 election with a margin of only 1.9% following successive swings and an unfavourable redistribution. He nonetheless retained the seat easily on the back of a statewide Liberal swing that pushed his margin out to 7.2%.
Smith’s entry to politics came via a staff position with Peter Costello, with whom he remained closely associated. After the 2007 election defeat he won promotion to the shadow cabinet in the education portfolio, but Malcolm Turnbull demoted him to Assistant Treasurer when he became leader in September 2008. Smith formed part of the front-bench exodus in the final days of Turnbull’s leadership, together with Tony Abbott and Nick Minchin, in protest against Turnbull’s support for an emissions trading scheme. He duly emerged a strong backer of Abbott in the ensuing leadership contest, and returned to shadow cabinet in broadband and communications. However, Smith was widely thought to have struggled during the 2010 campaign and was demoted after the election for a second time, this time down to parliamentary secretary level. With the election of the Abbott government he was dropped altogether, making way for the promotion of fellow Victorians Josh Frydenberg and Alan Tudge.
[I think what has happened, is that the collective depression of the massive loss and the likely 2 or 3 terms in Opposition is making some people nasty and vindictive.]
Thank you for explaining the reason for your nastiness and vindictiveness.
[In case you have not noticed, I am only defending myself against attacks, as is my perfect right to do.]
You should also defend yourself against your complete stupidity.
“@PaulBongiorno: Soon on #Teneyewitnessnews. Labor Leader @billshortenmp speaks to me live on the enormous challenge ahead.”
When will Mod Lib provide evidence that the RBA tries to make inflation exactly 2.5%?
Or is she just a lying liar who lies?
Sean
When is the Liberal Party going to have member involvement in leadership ballots?
[Hasn’t Howard already said NO to the GG job?]
Why bother about the monkey ? Ask the organ grinder and Mrs Bucket has said nothing 🙂
deblonay
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 4:06 pm | PERMALINK
Shorten short-comings
_______________
I suspect the Govt will portray Shorten as a party boss..and if the stories of the Right in caucus showing each other their ballots is true that will give then a stick to beat him with
I think he is no great performer in the House whereas Albenese is and was in the past…pretty low wattage in the charisma area too
However new LOTO after a defeat seldom win at the nest election .
All will depend on how badly Abbott goes
—sadly at least the case
and this was supposed to be clean start.
all the window dressing.
someone yesterday said MP deserved more pay. they dont. they dont do their job, which is to democratically govern
I hate reviving leadership battles, but Shorten did not “bring Julia down”. He finally declared that he was supporting Rudd, but according to what I have read, others had already decided on their vote, and he only influenced about 6 votes, if that.
IMV he shouldn’t have been so frank. It did him no good.
In my Inbox
[Today is an historic day for the Australian Labor Party. For the first time in our long and proud history, members have been involved in selecting a new Labor Leader.
I want to congratulate Anthony Albanese on his campaign. Anthony is a good and decent Labor man and we are lucky to have a man of his formidable talents in our Parliamentary ranks. He will continue to make a strong contribution to the Labor team.
This leadership ballot represents a new beginning. It was inspiring. It was democratic. And it was a privilege to be a part of it.
I also want to thank every member who voted, as well as all those volunteers involved in the process, because you’ve made the ALP more transparent and open.
Together we can rebuild Labor into a force for change and become a great Labor Government that we can all be proud of.
A movement for change that has deep connections in local communities, reflects the diversity of the Australian people, and a movement that pursues big ideas for this generation of Australians – and all the generations that are yet to come.
I understand this ballot is just the start of our renewal. If you’re not already a member, I urge you to join us. We must continue to build our movement for change and earn the right to govern.
We all belong to a renewed Labor Party. I have a message to those true believers: We won’t let you down. Labor can win the next election.
Bill Shorten]
[I suspect the Govt will portray Shorten as a party boss..and if the stories of the Right in caucus showing each other their ballots is true that will give then a stick to beat him with]
Actually it was a secret ballot.
was
it cathryn murphy that use to work for newsld or am I mistaken
“@PaulBongiorno: Labor owes @AlboMP a huge debt for his willingness to contest the first party wide leadership ballot. Reform in action with more needed.”
[ShowsOn
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 4:18 pm | PERMALINK
When will Mod Lib provide evidence that the RBA tries to make inflation exactly 2.5%?
Or is she just a lying liar who lies?]
Why would I provide evidence for something I have never said?
You, on the other hand, have claimed that I have said the RBA has a target of exactly 2.5% and continue to fail to provide any evidence of such.
I will leave it up to others to judge how to characterise this and won’t engage in your (and confessions) behaviour.
On a side note did i hear David Speers say this government hasn’t put a foot wrong yet.
Richo the rat said on sky earlier that Albo expected to win, and was disappointed.
Ok. I judge that Mod Lib is a bandwidth thief who wastes Poll Bludgers’ time.
albo is still there to read some people you would think he is off the planet or something
totally different to PM situations
both will work together
that’s what albos like
think people should just shut up and wait and see what happens
so many experts here
paul keating didn’t have a lot of charisma either
but did very well,
victoria
Stop insulting rat ! 🙂
Doh , “rats”.
I doubt albo would of expressed that to him
Bemused #564
Count me out. My head is too precious to bang on that brick wall.
victoria:
Richo is another oxygen thief.
Slight change of topic …
I received a ballot for the Academic Senate of Sydney University, but the vast majority of candidates are unknown to me. Beyond the fairly bland statements from the candidates, is there a place where one can check these people out?
Here’s a list of those of whom I know nothing useful:
Oswald, Bartholomew
Conn, Neil
Mason, Peter
Hyde, Brendon
Branson, Robin
Catchlove, Barry
Fattore, Tobia
Spring, Jane
McWilliam, Bruce
Littrell, Charles
Hector, Donald
Menzies-Pike, Catriona
Schmiede, Annette
Fitzsimons, Robin
Reed, Barbara
Constantin, Abraham
Turner, David
If anyone can tell me anything useful about any of the above I’d be grateful.
Others I do know about include Kate McClymont, Verity Firth, Peter Fitzsimons (not sure if he’s related to Robin), Andrew West and Peter King.
[albo is still there to read some people you would think he is off the planet or something
totally different to PM situations
both will work together
that’s what albos like]
Who gives a shit what you think Albo will do, WHERES RUDD?!! 😀
Sean
Where is Turnbull and where is the Liberal Party membership ballot.
speers who listens to him only the liberals that pay for tv
don’t tell me labor people wast money paying for tv
any one who pays to watch tv must be a tv holic or very wealthy
Everybody please take note… NO tweets from Rudd congratulating his new leader.
Too busy in the back shed on the bench grinder sharpening knives. 😀
Fran Barlow
Goodness me, so many “ethnic” names 😉
[Why would I provide evidence for something I have never said?
You, on the other hand, have claimed that I have said the RBA has a target of exactly 2.5% and continue to fail to provide any evidence of such.
I will leave it up to others to judge how to characterise this and won’t engage in your (and confessions) behaviour.]
Go have a cry somewhere else, none of us are interested in your tantrums.
We accept that the reason you are nasty and vindictive is because of the election just get over it and move on.
Fran Barlow@630
I actually thought you would see the intended humour playing on what word MTBW used.
My Say
There is more to foxtel than news, most people have it for sport followed by entertainment and movies.
Just the tragics or political types watch Sky News & ABC 24
And it isn’t that expensive.
confessions
I only flipped over to catch the speeches by Albo and Shorten. Then Speers crossed to Richo for his view. I agree that Richo is an oxygen thief
The Liberal trolls really are getting desperate.
Having now seen Labor leading the way in how to democratically elect a Leader all they got is to make pathetic immature comments.
I think she has a poultry farm or her research area is “eggs”.
She’s sure throwin plenty of eggs at faces today.
It’s good light readin but!
Sean
Why are you interested in Rudd when there is a budget emergency to respond too.
You know the one which has caused Joe to disappear.
poroti
You are correct. Apologies to rats…..
[psyclaw
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 4:26 pm | PERMALINK
Bemused #564
Count me out. My head is too precious to bang on that brick wall.]
So many posts, yet still cannot answer such a very simple question:
Did you or did you not know that Wedding catering was eligible to be claimed in the Meal Entertainment when you made the “utter crap” post?
Yes or no?
Very, very simple question. It speaks volumes that you are reluctant on revealing the truth, don’t you think?
It has been a month and yet we have heard nothing about the Commission of Audit.
Surely Joe must by now have some idea about its structure or who is going to conduct it.
[Who gives a shit what you think Albo will do, WHERES RUDD?!!]
Europe, from memory.
The LNP need to delegitimize the ALP leadership process in order to keep the ALP support down at the levels it was pushed by the leadershit nonsense of the last 6 years.
If the public start to think the ALP leadership game is over – almost regardless of how well Shorten performs – the ALP will steadily regain support.
The biggest single drain on the ALP vote was the endless leadershit drama – if the ALP can successfully draw a line under that and make the claim that they have moved past it then they are immediately back in the game.
[Why are you interested in Rudd when there is a budget emergency to respond too.]
And the boats are still coming. Around 1,400 asylum seekers have arrived since the election.
Mod Lib still thieving bandwidth and wasting our time.
mexicanbeemer
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 4:32 pm | Permalink
Sean
Why are you interested in Rudd when there is a budget emergency to respond too.
You know the one which has caused Joe to disappear.
————————————————-
I think Sean has the hots for Rudd. Forever talking about him like a lovesick puppy
My Say
I notice you like to go on about elitism and wealth yet there are several ALP supporters that post here that live in Sydney’s north shore and you never express comments at them about being wealthy or elitist.
Your chip is showing.
@Simon_Cullen: RT @702sydney: Photo of cars alight at Aquatic Centre at Sydney Olympic Park via @benscottoz #SOPAC http://t.co/ivHWcgUKun
Forget the boats. What is Abbott going to do about cars!!
How are you PB NSW peeps going ? Just saw a news update on the fires . Lots of crap situations.
[Jackol
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 4:36 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib still thieving bandwidth and wasting our time.]
More attacking me, but not a single comment about psyclaw who continues to insult me, or Shows On who continues to make unsubstantiated allegations against me?
Hmmm, interesting, eh? Apparently I am meant to just take it and not fight back, eh? Well this aint the school yard and your bullying wont work against me! Sorry folks, as many of you can gang up together as you like, but I will fight back.
Don’t blame me for the election result- you are going to need to get over it eventually or you will be miserable for the next 6 to 9 years!
AA
That’s an idea, i never pictured Sean having a soft spot for Rudd and yes i believe he is in Europe so he should be in bed still.
Maybe dreaming about Sean
Stop the cars!
Oh wait. No, he wants to build more roads right? That’s one of his 6 promises.
Start the cars!
guytaur
Snap !! Apparently something like 15 cars burnt out.
Yes. I’m bullying the bandwidth thief Mod Lib who is still wasting our time.