Counts and recounts

The Labor leadership contest is approaching the end game, which is more than can be said for the election counts for Fairfax and the WA Senate.

Developments of various kinds in the field of vote-counting:

• Labor’s month-long leadership election campaign is finally drawing to a close, with caucus having determined its 50% share of the total vote yesterday and around 25,000 rank-and-file ballots to be counted on Sunday. Reports suggest that Bill Shorten has won at least 50 out of the 86 votes in the party room, receiving the undivided support of a Right which had been polarised during the Gillard-Rudd stand-off. By contrast, David Crowe of The Australian reports that Left members including Warren Snowdon, Brendan O’Connor, Kate Lundy, Laurie Ferguson, Maria Vamvakinou, Julie Owens and newly elected Bendigo MP Lisa Chesters have failed to fall in behind Albanese. Tea-leaf reading from party sources quoted around the place suggests Bill Shorten will do best if a large number of votes are received from his relatively strong states of Victoria and Western Australia, with most other states (together with the ACT, which punches above its weight in terms of ALP membership) considered strongholds for Albanese.

• ReachTEL published a poll yesterday of 891 respondents in New South Wales and Victoria showing Anthony Albanese favoured over Shorten by 60.9-39.1 in New South Wales and 54.0-46.0 in Victoria. Each had slight leads over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister in Victoria and slight deficits in New South Wales. Results on voting intention confirmed the general impression from the limited national polling in finding no honeymoon bounce for the new government.

• Electoral Commissioner Ed Killesteyn has ordered a recount of above-the-line votes for the Western Australian Senate, which will change the result of two Senate seats if a 14-vote gap between the Shooters and Fishers and Australian Christians parties is reversed. Also under review are votes declared informal the first time around, which is always a grey area. Tireless anonymous blogger TruthSeeker has performed good work in identifying count peculiarities potentially significant enough to turn the result, including a popular favourite known as the “Waggrakine discrepancy”.

• The Fairfax recount limps with the Clive Palmer camp apparently challenging any vote that doesn’t go its way, thereby requiring it to be sent for determination by the state electoral officer in Brisbane. AAP reports the result “won’t be known for at least another week”.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that ReachTEL has let rip with its first post-election poll of national voting intention, and it continues an unbroken run of such polling in plotting a position for the Coalition south of what it achieved at the election, however slightly. Coming off a large-even-for-ReachTEL sample of 3600, it shows the Coalition with a two-party preferred lead of 52.1-47.9, compared with roughly 53.5-46.5 at the election, from primary votes of 45.4% for the Coalition (45.6% at the election), 35.3% for Labor (33.4%) and 8.6% for the Greens (unchanged). Tony Abbott’s performance is rated good by 40.5% and poor by 40.2%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,614 comments on “Counts and recounts”

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  1. 1478

    The Labour Party changed its rules in 1980, they came into effect just after Michael Foot was elected. He resigned to make sure his successor was elected by Labour MPs.

  2. confessions

    Dear, oh dear, oh dear!

    I’m beginning to think you ARE Julia Gillard who posts here.

    Obviously the Rudd-detox medication I prescribed for you is not working.

    I suggest you have an early night, and have a relaxing cup of warm milk before retiring.

  3. [@LynndeLoopy: @abcnews Peter Slipper’s words:
    “I think that either the charges against me should be dropped or everyone else should be charged.
    I agree!!!]

    Peter Slipper’s interview on Insiders tomorrow is his chance to tip the bucket on the “best man” at his wedding, Mal Brough and the infighting in the Qld LNP. Or will he squib it?

  4. Interesting article here on how only Australia and NZ of Westminster-style democracies have centre-right parties denying members a vote, the Canadian and UK Tory parties allow their members a vote, as do the Liberals, NDP and Labour Parties, and in the US both parties’ presidential candidates are chosen by primary. Most leaders of continental European parties are also chosen by the membership and anointed at party congresses
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11123859

  5. The only reference I could find to the AEC was in the National Executive Guidelines for the conduct of the Ballot.
    [3. There will be a postal ballot with random signature checks:
    • All financial members will be posted a ballot paper in a reply paid envelope.
    • Members will be required to sign a declaration when returning the ballot. This will mirror the process used by the AEC in the conduct of many union elections.
    • If a returned ballot envelope is challenged, the NRO will request a copy of a signature from the member’s application or renewal form. This will be provided by the State or Territory Secretary. If a signature is not available (due to the unavailability of older records) the NRO will ask the member to provide a sample signature (such as that provided on a driver’s licence).
    • There will also be additional random checks of signatures against membership application and renewal forms by the NRO.]

    So it seems they are just following AEC procedures but doing it in house.

  6. DN

    Whoever is leader will have to contend with the knowledge of how the members voted along with the rest of caucus.

    That must make a difference

  7. If the Labor candidates had any sense, and could control their egos and lust for power and hate tendencies for one another (all highly unlikely scenarios), then the winner should immediately ask the loser to run for deputy, or that should have been agreed between them beforehand. However since when have power-crazy egomaniacal Labor leaders had any sense (since Hawke)!?

  8. feeney@1502

    confessions

    Dear, oh dear, oh dear!

    I’m beginning to think you ARE Julia Gillard who posts here.

    Obviously the Rudd-detox medication I prescribed for you is not working.

    I suggest you have an early night, and have a relaxing cup of warm milk before retiring.

    I recommended she seek out a good therapist but either she hasn’t or it’s not working yet.

  10. guytaur, what good is a situation where someone is elected where both he and caucus knows he owes them one? Are we really advocating Labor create a whole new situation of faceless men?

  14. Tom True, but the present Labour Party rules of equal split between MPs, Members and unions came in in 1993 and was the first to include one member one vote rather than union block votes

  16. He doesn’t something they don’t like, someone leaks that caucus rigged their own vote and the media have a field day running “who is this guy really working for”.

  17. DN

    How do you get faceless men from taking indications of members votes into account?

    Seriously? By Monday the country will know the results for sure. That is a lot of “faceless men”

  18. Mick77 – I trust you don’t expect that anyone from the ALP will ever put an ounce of faith in your advice to them.

    I’m still not sure automatically making a leadership rival the deputy is such a good plan. It has been the tradition that the ‘anointed successor’ is given the deputy position, but … really that only makes sense in government to provide a veneer of continuity in leadership changeover circumstances. In opposition it will all depend on the dynamic over the next couple of years, and that is anyone’s guess.

    It may well happen that Shorten becomes deputy if Albo wins – Psephos seems to think it the only real possibility because of state and factional restrictions.

  20. confessions

    Anyway, seeing that I’m in conspiracy mode, how’s Tim going?

    Make sure he takes the dog for a walk and helps with the washing and wiping up.

    LOL

  22. guytaur, having re-read your 1506, I think I misunderstood it. I initially interpreted it in the context of caucus rigging their own vote, but now I think that what you meant is that the members 50% is real and will lend any leader its weight.

  24. Jackol
    [Mick77 – I trust you don’t expect that anyone from the ALP will ever put an ounce of faith in your advice to them.]
    I suspect that no-one who is responsible for the ALP decisions has ever read any posts from me, which is their loss, but it was free and good advice I was giving for a party which has been in such leadership turmoil in recent years, and looking to heal its divides.

  25. WA BTL Votes worthy of Interest.

    http://democracy-at-work.blogspot.com.au/2013/10/wa-senate-recount-ballot-papers-worthy.html

    Unfortunately I do not have a source location list for each batch allocation as this would assist in narrowing down the list even more

    The odds are that the gap between them will widen not swing.

    It is estimated that a recount of the WA Senate will costs taxpayers around $100,000

    Had the AEC provided Scrutineers access to the preference data-file then these votes would have been subjected to more detailed scrutiny during the initial count and possibly avoid the need for a recount

  26. Jackol 1518

    I agree with your post.

    There may be a perception that Shorten will undermine and white-ant him.

    Just like Gillard did to Rudd.

    Oh, there I go again.

  27. DN

    Yes that is what I meant. Its why I am confident that either candidate will get more reforms through. Having the members being on the record as being behind you has to count.

  28. feeney:

    I do think it’s funny that you imagine Julia Gillard to be living in regional WA. Did you not factor in the fact that William can readily see our IP addresses?

  29. Oh scratch that. I’m well up for imagining that feeney and his fellow travellers think I’m Julia Gillard.

    William:

    Please delete my 1528. Standards must be met and expectations must be upheld!

  30. confessions

    Awwwwwww spoilsport. We could have done our own version of “At Home with Julia”

    Somehow I think bludgers could come up with a better script.

  31. Slipper should quite while he’s (marginally) ahead. Richard Ackland’s piece in the SMH makes it quite clear what the difference between Slipper’s case and all these other cases is: namely that Slipper knew perfectly well that he was cheating the taxpayers, whereas all the others can claim inadvertence. They may be lying, but it can’t be proved they are. In Slipper’s case there’s no doubt.

  32. [Yes, yes, but it’s all in their interpretation. If Albo wins the member vote and this can be leaked to the media and takes hold among the general populace accordingly, then if Shorten is declared the winner, we have a ready-made Rudd whiteanting scenario there for the taking.]

    I think you mean a Gillard whiteanting and backstabbing scenario there. Will they start smearing his name first them backstab or backstab then smear…can see it coming. Gillard style hey. LoL

    Maybe some analgesic suppositories a few times a day might do you some good and help you forget the pain of the failed one, no?

  33. confessions @ 1528

    Yes, I am aware of that.

    I was trying to make the point that all of us often resort to conspiracy theories to try and support a point.

    Goodnight all.

  34. [
    DisplayName
    Posted Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    He doesn’t something they don’t like, someone leaks that caucus rigged their own vote and the media have a field day running “who is this guy really working for”.
    ]
    And do you think that is worse than the current story that they voted on factional lines?

  35. feeney –

    Just like Gillard did to Rudd.

    What a pointless comment.

    My reasoning is more that leadership jockeying will occur whether or not someone is deputy.

    But there is the possibility that the media will look at a leadership team composed of rivals and say “that just doesn’t seem like a harmonious leadership team to us given the history of their contest” and use it to slant coverage.

    To my mind – and I’m just working off gut feeling here – there may be just as much merit in picking a friendly non-rival as deputy and giving all leadership ballot rivals senior and favoured shadow portfolios. I could be convinced either way though – just that it isn’t the obvious choice others make it out to be.

  36. [
    Psephos
    Posted Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 10:56 pm | Permalink
    ..
    They may be lying, but it can’t be proved they are. In Slipper’s case there’s no doubt.
    ]
    Wedding; winery; it is hard to see the difference. As the court case is still in progress where do you get your certainty.

  37. Shorten has very good form….he may as well he be leader then he get backstabbed…..8 months before an election…now that would be poetic justice there. too funny that would be.

  40. [
    DisplayName
    Posted Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    fred, yes it’s much worse if there is a demonstration of old games under the new process.
    ]
    The old game is voting on factional line. It would be a new game under a new process; but I do see you point.

  43. [
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    But if both Albo and Shorten become unacceptable for whatever reason before the next election, then who?
    ]
    No boubt you will be here to hang shit on whoever wins and suggest an alternative.

  44. [I was trying to make the point that all of us often resort to conspiracy theories to try and support a point.]ns

    Do we?

    Ruddists seem to resort to any point, conspiracy or otherwise in order to make their arguments.

  47. confessions@1544

    [I was trying to make the point that all of us often resort to conspiracy theories to try and support a point.]ns

    Do we?

    Ruddists seem to resort to any point, conspiracy or otherwise in order to make their arguments.

    While you just listen to your voices?

  48. Potential future leadership candidates apart from the two on offer this time, IMO: Burke, Plibersek, Clare, Bowen. Maybe Dreyfus and Butler.

  50. Jackol @ 1535

    I was being mischievous with that comment.

    I agree with what you are saying though. The media will create the perception that all is not well with the Labor Leadership team.

    It’s true, too, that perhaps a non-rival as Deputy would be the way to go.

    I suggested earlier today that perhaps Allanah MacTiernan from WA would be a good choice. Yes, I know whe is 60, but she is extremely capable and won’t back away from a fight.

    Plus she is Unaligned in terms of factions. This of course went against her in WA when she may well have become State Leader if she had faction support.

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