Developments of various kinds in the field of vote-counting:
• Labor’s month-long leadership election campaign is finally drawing to a close, with caucus having determined its 50% share of the total vote yesterday and around 25,000 rank-and-file ballots to be counted on Sunday. Reports suggest that Bill Shorten has won at least 50 out of the 86 votes in the party room, receiving the undivided support of a Right which had been polarised during the Gillard-Rudd stand-off. By contrast, David Crowe of The Australian reports that Left members including Warren Snowdon, Brendan O’Connor, Kate Lundy, Laurie Ferguson, Maria Vamvakinou, Julie Owens and newly elected Bendigo MP Lisa Chesters have failed to fall in behind Albanese. Tea-leaf reading from party sources quoted around the place suggests Bill Shorten will do best if a large number of votes are received from his relatively strong states of Victoria and Western Australia, with most other states (together with the ACT, which punches above its weight in terms of ALP membership) considered strongholds for Albanese.
• ReachTEL published a poll yesterday of 891 respondents in New South Wales and Victoria showing Anthony Albanese favoured over Shorten by 60.9-39.1 in New South Wales and 54.0-46.0 in Victoria. Each had slight leads over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister in Victoria and slight deficits in New South Wales. Results on voting intention confirmed the general impression from the limited national polling in finding no honeymoon bounce for the new government.
• Electoral Commissioner Ed Killesteyn has ordered a recount of above-the-line votes for the Western Australian Senate, which will change the result of two Senate seats if a 14-vote gap between the Shooters and Fishers and Australian Christians parties is reversed. Also under review are votes declared informal the first time around, which is always a grey area. Tireless anonymous blogger TruthSeeker has performed good work in identifying count peculiarities potentially significant enough to turn the result, including a popular favourite known as the “Waggrakine discrepancy”.
• The Fairfax recount limps with the Clive Palmer camp apparently challenging any vote that doesn’t go its way, thereby requiring it to be sent for determination by the state electoral officer in Brisbane. AAP reports the result “won’t be known for at least another week”.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that ReachTEL has let rip with its first post-election poll of national voting intention, and it continues an unbroken run of such polling in plotting a position for the Coalition south of what it achieved at the election, however slightly. Coming off a large-even-for-ReachTEL sample of 3600, it shows the Coalition with a two-party preferred lead of 52.1-47.9, compared with roughly 53.5-46.5 at the election, from primary votes of 45.4% for the Coalition (45.6% at the election), 35.3% for Labor (33.4%) and 8.6% for the Greens (unchanged). Tony Abbott’s performance is rated good by 40.5% and poor by 40.2%.
[Alleged instructions to driver]
Then he can sue the SMH. (We went through all this with Thomson, remember?)
Psephos
What that article starts with is Slipper has been charged with ……………
It ignores the difference is the complaint to the AFP that has not been made in other cases. Thus showing a real bias or lack of understanding why its political
[ Psephos
Posted Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 11:10 pm | Permalink
Wedding; winery; it is hard to see the difference.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/why-slippers-cabcharges-may-be-different-to-pms-weddings-20131008-2v6ei.html
Read the article, particularly the bit about his instructions to the driver.]
The title says “may” you have moved to certainty. Given the outcome of the Thomson saga I think I would be a little bit careful assuming a newspaper report was accurate.
Jackol
[But there is the possibility that the media will look at a leadership team composed of rivals and say “that just doesn’t seem like a harmonious leadership team to us given the history of their contest” and use it to slant coverage.]
I haven’t perceived any hate between them (yet) but again it does depend on whether they can control themselves on this count and it would be something that Lab leaders could learn from Lib leaders in recent times, ie get over it and become a team player. Are labor heavyweights or lightweights capable of overcoming their lust for power, egos and hate for rivals within the party? If so Albo-Shorten or Shorten-Albo would be a dream team and could win in 2019.
A US writer looks at the crisis inside the Republican Party and wonders if it is a fatal moment
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/115134/gop-death-watch-final-days-republican-party
Another way of looking at it is that arguing that the members will has been ignored if they don’t get the result the majority of them voted for is the same as arguing any one vote in a normal democratic process was ignored if that person didn’t get the result they voted for.
[Given the outcome of the Thomson saga I think I would be a little bit careful assuming a newspaper report was accurate.]
What?? The Fairfax story was 100% accurate, as everyone knows. That’s why Thomson withdrew his defamation action once it had got him through the 2010 election.
The fact that they are counted at all means they hold real weight.
Or maybe that should be “The fact of their counting means they hold real weight”.
[But there is the possibility that the media will look at a leadership team composed of rivals ]
Most leadership teams are teams of rivals.
Goodnight
I didn’t vote for Tony Abbott and still got him as PM!
Dn
[I didn’t vote for Tony Abbott and still got him as PM!]
Yep, that’s how democracy works.
Mick77 –
Speaking of Lib leadership – are you trying to suggest that Julie Bishop is the most likely to take over from Abbott as Lib leader when he is knocked off?
The biggest potential rivals for the Lib leadership are not in the Deputy position in my opinion.
Mick
It stinks, I tells ya!
The manipulation of records for which Slipper was charged is a serious matter.
Those who suggest theMinchin protocol somehow should apply would need to identify any instance in which it has been used in a manipulation case. Despite going about the issue ad nauseam no one has done that including Slipper himself.
[
Psephos
Posted Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 11:20 pm | Permalink
….
What?? The Fairfax story was 100% accurate, as everyone knows. That’s why Thomson withdrew his defamation action once it had got him through the 2010 election.
]
If you say. I think your talking about the Thompson with a p stuff; I was talking about the fair work Australia stuff.
I’m holding you responsible, Mick.
Shorten is now favourite with the bookies
Shorten $1.70
Albo $2.10
I’m a bit surprised they are still taking bets as plenty of people must pretty much know who won.
[I didn’t vote for Tony Abbott and still got him as PM!]
Me too!
Election now I tells ya!
[Shorten is now favourite with the bookies]
Great. Except nobody cares.
[Most leadership teams are teams of rivals.]
Which is the title of a brilliant book on Lincoln’s presidency by Doris Goodwin.
Jackol
Don’t underestimate Julie Bishop imho .. however the point is that Costello’s angst at Howard didn’t become an all-consuming party issue. Likewise, Nelson-Turnbull-Abbott-Hockey (& Andrews if you like) haven’t kept feuds going with obvious hate or disdain, nor were ballots held in that atmosphere. Rivalries, disappointments yes; power hunger, egos and hate no. So Labor could learn from libs. I think it’s what’s called “grown up”.
I’m talking about Craig Thomson, the former member for Dobell.
DN
[It (democracy) stinks, I tells ya!]
I find myself in complete agreement with you regarding 2010 post-election outcomes, but have been won over in 2013.
[Which is the title of a brilliant book on Lincoln’s presidency by Doris Goodwin.]
It is a very good book. It shows that Lincoln, Seward and Chase, who were bitter rivals for the Republican nomination, worked effectively as a team after Lincoln’s election. Of course that was when the Republicans were led by rational conservatives and not nutters as now.
Mick77 – I’m not underestimating Julie Bishop, but I don’t see her leading the Libs ahead of Morrison or Hockey or Turnbull.
I think you make the mistake of reading too much into how the Libs have managed to keep a lid on the leadership tensions that exist within the party.
“Costello’s angst at Howard” basically did become an all-consuming party issue that didn’t go anywhere because Costello turned out to have no ticker, as they say.
“Nelson-Turnbull-Abbott-Hockey” was a total mess at the time, trying to pretend it all worked out due to “adultness” is insulting our knowledge of history.
DN
More seriously (for a change), I am thankful for every day that I live in our Australian democracy, imperfect as it may be.
No-one knows who the new MP with the longest name of any federal MP ever elected is?
Psephos, I’m sure you will enlighten us if we don’t!
[
Psephos
Posted Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 11:34 pm | Permalink
I’m talking about Craig Thomson, the former member for Dobell.
]
Yes; but are you talking about the brothel docket signed Thompson; or the fair work australia civil case, with fair work australian now askinG for mediation with most of the case already gutted.
[ I don’t see her leading the Libs ahead of Morrison or Hockey or Turnbull.]
That depends on how they perform as ministers. I wouldn’t rule out Bishop as next Liberal leader, although she’s 10 years older than Morrison and Hockey. I expect Christian Porter will have a meteoric rise, too.
(Why do we say “meteoric rise” when meteors always fall?)
[Yes; but are you talking about the brothel docket signed Thompson; or the fair work australia civil case, with fair work australian now askinG for mediation with most of the case already gutted.]
I’ve no idea what that means.
Jackol
I honestly never detected the level of hate among Lib leaders/rivals that have characterised the Labor party in recent decades. (The grown up comment was just bait for the Mick haters).
Abbott has a lot of faults (and 90% of the posters here will be happy to list them for me and add a few dozen more from their own imagination) however I remember very clearly how he virtually begged Turnbull to change his support for Rudd’s ETS and retain Abbott on front-bench and only as a last resort, and only after Andrews had challenged, did he have a tilt. It definitely wasn’t personal.
[Psephos, I’m sure you will enlighten us if we don’t!]
Indeed. It’s Alannah Joan Geraldine Cecilia MacTiernan!
Psephos
Back then the Dems were led by the nutters. Lincoln did eventually get rid of Chase who threatened to resign every week.
Mick, if you say that my opinion of you as “a person who occasionally demonstrates a sense of humour” will have to be changed to “a person who does not always demonstrate a sense of humour” ;).
[ Psephos
Posted Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 11:43 pm | Permalink
Yes; but are you talking about the brothel docket signed Thompson; or the fair work australia civil case, with fair work australian now askinG for mediation with most of the case already gutted.
I’ve no idea what that means.
]
Interesting. I see now why you have faith in newspaper reports.
Psephos, it seems there’s a history behind that name. Literally. Parents, grandparents, perhaps?
Psephos; you won’t find it reported in the age:
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/jacksonville-60-fair-work-commission-case-against-thomson-collapses/
still haven’t come to grips with Concetta Fierravanti-Wells beating Dan van Holst Pellekaan
Evidently Thomson gets six months pay despite losing as he contested his seat. If he didn’t contest it, he wouldn’t have got it.
[He received only 4 per cent of the primary vote, but will be paid nearly $100,000 as six months’ salary because he contested and lost his seat.
]
I assume that normally that would allow time to find a new job.
Mick77 –
Your memory is faulty.
Reneging on Rudd’s ETS was Minchin’s idea I imagine, and Abbott was happy to go along with it to take advantage of the opportunity to explore his leadership ambitions.
That sorrowful “resignation” of his was clearly the move required to tip Turnbull over the edge in terms of Turnbull’s leadership clearly becoming untenable.
It was an efficient assassination, but let’s not pretend the Libs are any less ruthless when push comes to shove than the ALP can be.
1592
He still missed out on the deposit and per vote funding by a vote or two.
[Psephos; you won’t find it reported in the age:]
That website is a just a shitsheet set up to slag Kathy Jackson for internal ALP reasons.
Tom
How much would that have been?
[Psephos
Posted Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 11:54 pm | Permalink
Psephos; you won’t find it reported in the age:
That website is a just a shitsheet set up to slag Kathy Jackson for internal ALP reasons.]
Has the case gone to mediation or not?
The late-lamented Flipper Boy, who still hasn’t paid my charity his $500 losing bet, was a big fan of the humorously named independentaustralia website.
That told me all I needed to know about it.
Jackol @1594
We’ll have to agree to disagree on our interpretation of those events and as a jogger to memory, from smh below:
[Mr Abbott told reporters it was not a leadership issue but a policy issue. “This is an argument about policy. It is not an argument about the leadership,” he said.
He said that he and Senator Minchin had seen Mr Turnbull in his office after question time this afternoon to ask him to reconsider his policy on emissions trading and delay a vote on Labor’s emissions trading scheme until next year, after the Copenhagen summit.
They had proposed the matter be put to a Senate inquiry but Mr Turnbull had said he was not prepared to reconsider.
“I indicated to Malcolm at the end of the conversation that given his position I could no longer support the opposition’s policy and therefore could no longer be in the shadow cabinet,’’ he said.
He had no option but “to take the honourable course”.
“It was a very civil, rational and courteous conversation conducted in a spirit of mutual respect,” said Mr Abbott.
He said in the light of the fact he could no longer support his leader’s policy he had no option but to resign.
“It is a very difficult decision for me,” he said. “I have always been a very loyal party man.”]