Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research remains the only regularly reporting opinion poll in town, and it continues to show the Coalition with a weaker lead than they scored at the election.

Essential Research is still the only opinion poll operating to its regular schedule, Morgan having sat out last week and Newspoll presumably holding off at least until Labor sorts out its leadership. The latest weekly result has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at an unspectacular 52-48, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady on last week), 35% for Labor (down one) and the Greens on 9% (steady). Other questions relate to internet privacy, including a finding that US surveillance programs such as Edward Snowden revealed are opposed by 45% and supported by 24%, and the importance of our various foreign relationships, showing “very important” ratings of 56% for New Zealand, 51% for the United States, 46% for China, 42% for the United Kingdom and 35% for Indonesia.

UPDATE: And now Morgan comes through with its normal multi-mode poll which was skipped last week, carrying the striking headline that Labor leads 50.5-49.5 on respondent-allocated preferences. However, Morgan produces a strikingly different result from preference flows as per the recent election, with the Coalition lead at 53-47. But I find this hard to reconcile with the primary votes: the Coalition is at 42%, 3.5% lower than at the election, Labor at 37%, which is 3.6% higher, and the minor parties only slightly changed at 9% for the Greens, 4.5% for the Palmer United Party and 7.5% for others. Somehow though, two-party preferred comes out as very similar to the election result, which as best as anyone can tell is about 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,828 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. [Abbott is playing with fire on this one. Surely he is aware of the intense dispute between China and Japan over territory in the East China Sea. By calling Japan “Australia’s best friend” he has just mightily insulted China, at a time when he wants to negotiate a quick FTA.]

    citizen@1181 Makes a mockery of talking heads who are praising Abbott’s skills in diplomacy.

    Markjs Agree with you. I’m just hoping, whatever the result, that Labor’s worst enemy (itself) stops the dissenting from within.

  3. [95% certainty of manmade AGW according to IPCC report]

    Here’s a hypothetical: you have a 95% chance of a car crash. Do you

    a. take out insurance, or
    b. Focus on the 5% ….and the savings!

    Alan Jones advises b.

    Do you take his advice?

    Or I could rephrase that question this way: “are you a complete *&^%$g moron?”

  4. A new neurological disorder has been discovered know as Tony Tourette Syndrome (TTS).

    TTS is characterised by rapid, repetitive and involuntary swearing whenever the prime minister appears on radio or television.

  5. lefty e

    I suppose we must ask ourselves what these “morons” have to gain by denying that anything is happening to the climate. I’m not smart enough to work it out.

    Fame? (“I was the only one to state the truth”)
    Profits? (“I made my millions in mining, so I can still afford to buy expensive food when the rest of you are starving.”)

  8. guytaur

    You’re the one who said the issue had been taken to Conference in the past and failed.

    When challenged on that, you shifted the goalposts.

    Look, it’s obvious you’re very ignorant about party processes. That’s OK. But part of learning is the willingness to accept you’ve got something wrong, not to change the argument instead.

  9. I have a far less than 5% chance of my house burning down this year. I still pay out thousands of dollars of insurance just in case it does.

  12. Thats right Lizzie. I dont believe many denialists are genuine: most know its all true, but want to delay action to make a motza on non-renewables, and couldnt care less.

    Anyone who actually buys the ‘scientific uncertainty’ skeptic line is a real mug, and a useful fool for the first lot.

  13. Is there anything more pathetic than grown people doing “show and tell”?

    [Sources on the Left warned the Right against any “show and tell” of votes – a process by which caucus members show their completed ballot paper to the person next to them, in order to ensure a vote along factional lines.

    “It would be a really bad look for the party,” one said.

    “If you have a secret ballot, and a proportion of those voting do show and tell, then it would undermine faith in this whole process.”]

  14. zoomster

    You talk of goal post shifting. Its all you have been doing. You continue the use of the word taken even after I have pointed out to you that is wrong.

    Go on assuming I shifted goalposts all you like. I know I have not. Posters reading the conversation will know I have not.

    You of course will assume the opposite but I don’t care anymore.
    I have made the point and am not going to argue semantics with you

  15. Lefty E, it could be thought of as a balance in one way. That is, if the ALP and Greens vote together, PUP+Muir can deliver the votes itself to have the outcome decided in the ALP/Greens favour.

    Otherwise, you’re quite right, it’s still only 4 of 6 votes the Coalition would need to pass things.

    I heard some talking head on the ABC saying that it’d make it harder for the Government. This isn’t really clear. 4 votes together plus two others is easier to obtain than 3 votes together, plus 3 others, for instance.

  16. In other words, the Left are worried that Albo won’t get up, and are already trying to cast doubt on the outcome.

    Scarecely helpful.

  17. [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 6m
    Just attended citizenship ceremony; msg from immigration minister told new Aussies to get into “mateship”. Passthebucket. Social engineering]

  18. guytaur

    [I think he was right to bring in the reform by the way as I don’t think the conference would as it had been tried that way before.]

    This clearly states that you believe that the issue has been taken to Conference before.

    I’ve asked you to provide evidence that that has happened.

    It’s quite simple, really.

  19. http://www.news.com.au/national-news/labor-leadership-vote-in-canberra-must-be-kept-secret/story-fncynjr2-1226736646493

    [The two candidates will each make 10-minute statements to the special caucus meeting and the ballot will be held. Caucus by itself will later elect a deputy leader.

    The internal vote across the ALP’s parliamentary and organisational members has never been attempted before but so far no major mistakes have been reported.

    The voting process has exhausted those involved who moved from the general election campaign to the equally demanding party leadership national campaign almost straight away.]

  21. zoomster@1366

    In other words, the Left are worried that Albo won’t get up, and are already trying to cast doubt on the outcome.

    Scarecely helpful.

    So is it fair that I infer that you don’t want a secret ballot and approve of ‘show and tell’?

  22. zoomster

    In other words the right have caucus sewn up and are preparing the ground to defend their man.

    The mirror image of your post.

    How to keep the faction fighting continuing

  24. More goss.

    [‏@MichelleSuiter 9m
    Abbott charges taxpayers $4,673.56 for his mate to attend Tamworth under guise of engaging w the community #auspol pic.twitter.com/lxPrmYr9qh ]

  25. zoomster

    My replies were quite simple. You just do not want to concede that because it means giving Mr Rudd some credit

    Last I am saying on it

  28. No, bemused, it isn’t.

    What you can infer is that I want all members to support the new leader, whoever that may be.

    Undermining the process from within before the votes have even been counted doesn’t augur well for that.

    It would appear that some in the party haven’t learnt the lessons from the last few years.

  29. victoria

    About 35C, expected to get to 39C. Major bushfire warnings. Mum was going to come down from Hunter Valley but called it off because too hot, windy + fires.

    Just to remind myself it’s early October, not late February.

  33. Rummel and Sean, to be so confident in rejecting the scientific consensus on AGW you must have some impressive scientific qualifications. Are we talking about Bachelors of Science or PhDs?

  34. Suppose it’s the 1st of August in Melbourne. Then I can predict with 99% certainty that the 1st of January will be warmer than the 1st of August. That’s climate.

    On the other hand, I can’t predict whether the 14th of August will be warmer than the 1st of August – even though we *know* there’s an underlying warming trend (as it happens, the 14th was cooler this year). That’s weather.

    Over a short time period, most of what you see is weather. It’s only over a long time period that you can find out what the climate is doing – but as my example shows, it’s quite possible to predict the climate even if you can’t predict the weather.

  36. [Abbott is playing with fire on this one. Surely he is aware of the intense dispute between China and Japan over territory in the East China Sea. By calling Japan “Australia’s best friend” he has just mightily insulted China, at a time when he wants to negotiate a quick FTA.]
    Just like his idol, Howard, in 1996, angering China by siding with Japan and the US during the Taiwan Straits crisis. Abbott seems intent on recreating the Howard era down to the very last detail.

  37. [The most interesting observation is that solar is now competing with wind energy on costs. If this were to happen in the Australian market it would likely cause a rapid reshaping of the projects needed to acquit the 20 per cent renewable energy target, which is criticised in many quarters for being focused only on wind energy.]

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/big-solar-now-competing-with-wind-energy-on-costs-75962?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=big-solar-now-competing-with-wind-energy-on-costs-75962

  38. seantisme:

    [ If they can’t tell me whether it’s going to rain tomorrow how can they predict what the weather will be like in 10 years?]

    Weather is not the same as climate.

    So much for “no such thing as a stupid question”.

  40. badcat

    It’s all the kiwis settling in W.A. 🙂

    [ROTTNEST Island looks likely to become home to a breeding colony of New Zealand fur seals, raising fears that great white sharks will be attracted to the holiday spot. It has raised fears that the popular surfing spot at the west end of Rottnest could attract more great whites.

    “The great white is their big predator so that could pose a risk,” Rottnest Island Authority ranger Sarah Ellis-Stott said.

    Rottnest police officer-in-charge Sgt Peter Bahan, who is also a keen surfer, admitted he no longer surfed the popular break called Cathedrals after a great white “popped up” next to him during a surf last year.

    ….. were establishing colonies farther north and increasing in numbers
    ]
    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/seals-making-home-on-rottnest-may-attract-sharks-to-area/story-e6frg13u-1225837692792

  41. badcat

    Rottnest police officer-in-charge Sgt Peter Bahan, who is also a keen surfer, admitted he no longer surfed the popular break called Cathedrals after a great white “popped up” next to him during a surf last year.

    Sorta like opening the front door and seeing Sophie Mirabella canvassing your vote …..

  44. Lizzie @1387

    . . . and they still require conventional base load and peaking generation capacity to cover for the holes in production – a cost that is rarely effectively included in cost calculations.

  46. zoomster@1378

    No, bemused, it isn’t.

    What you can infer is that I want all members to support the new leader, whoever that may be.

    Undermining the process from within before the votes have even been counted doesn’t augur well for that.

    It would appear that some in the party haven’t learnt the lessons from the last few years.

    I think your inference is no more valid than mine and I hoped you would catch on to that.

  47. Just to ensure we are all on the same page:

    Weather is not climate.

    Therefore, today’s weather in NSW is not evidence of human impact on Climate Change.

    OK.

  48. A tongue in cheek look at how to influence people online.

    [How to win friends and influence people online

    12) Before you submit your comment: Check: have you compared someone to Hitler? Does your comment suggest you are above reading and engaging with the story you are reading and engaging with? Have you used the phrase “PC gone mad”? What about “common sense”? Are more than half of the words in the comment in capital letters? If the answer to any of these questions is “no”, it’s possible your comment could be improved with some careful editing]

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-to-win-friends-and-influence-people-online-20131010-2v9rd.html#ixzz2hHNZ3pmL

  50. [It could also be noted that by making this deal Muir has given up any individual leverage he may have had.]

    My guess is he was out of his depth and glad to be rescued by PUP.

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