Essential Research is still the only opinion poll operating to its regular schedule, Morgan having sat out last week and Newspoll presumably holding off at least until Labor sorts out its leadership. The latest weekly result has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at an unspectacular 52-48, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady on last week), 35% for Labor (down one) and the Greens on 9% (steady). Other questions relate to internet privacy, including a finding that US surveillance programs such as Edward Snowden revealed are opposed by 45% and supported by 24%, and the importance of our various foreign relationships, showing “very important” ratings of 56% for New Zealand, 51% for the United States, 46% for China, 42% for the United Kingdom and 35% for Indonesia.
UPDATE: And now Morgan comes through with its normal multi-mode poll which was skipped last week, carrying the striking headline that Labor leads 50.5-49.5 on respondent-allocated preferences. However, Morgan produces a strikingly different result from preference flows as per the recent election, with the Coalition lead at 53-47. But I find this hard to reconcile with the primary votes: the Coalition is at 42%, 3.5% lower than at the election, Labor at 37%, which is 3.6% higher, and the minor parties only slightly changed at 9% for the Greens, 4.5% for the Palmer United Party and 7.5% for others. Somehow though, two-party preferred comes out as very similar to the election result, which as best as anyone can tell is about 53.5-46.5.
Jolyon Wagg@1383
Definitely PhDs!!!
As in Pizza home Delivery. 😉
[The Palmer United Party (PUP) and the Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party (AMEP) have signed a memorandum of understanding that will see the parties ally in the Senate, creating a bloc of four senators that the Abbott government will have to negotiate with after July 1, 2014.
PUP leader Clive Palmer and AMEP senator-elect Ricky Muir confirmed the alliance on Thursday and said the parties would back each other’s policies on the economy and motoring issues respectively.]
http://www.afr.com/p/national/palmer_talks_up_muir_ahead_of_senate_0KCYL41amw6TSBGOLDZACM
[Lefty E, it could be thought of as a balance in one way. That is, if the ALP and Greens vote together, PUP+Muir can deliver the votes itself to have the outcome decided in the ALP/Greens favour.
Otherwise, you’re quite right, it’s still only 4 of 6 votes the Coalition would need to pass things.]
Indeed. Though Id call that a “shared BOP” myself – perhaps Im just being pedantic, but it seems to me GRNs + PUP/Muir is the BOP.
[If they can’t tell me whether it’s going to rain tomorrow how can they predict what the weather will be like in 10 years?]
I know I’m crazy to even try to explain this, but…
Think of global warming as climbing Mt Everest.
You start out at sea level. You finish on top of the world.
Along the way there are ups and downs, including some you didn’t expect, but the trend is inexorably up.
Records show that this has been the hottest year on record.
Out of the ten hottest years, the last decade has had most of them.
Getting a weather forecast wrong is a rarity nowadays, with the sophisticated prediction tools and techniques now available, from satellites to supercomputer software… but it does happen from time to time.
(Incidentally, I don’t hear people who refer to weather forecasts when they’re correct, which is most of the time.)
These little bumps and hollows in daily or yearly weather are noise on a steady upwardly trending curve.
The Earth is warming. It will warm no matter what Greg Hunt, Tony Abbott or Newspoll say. It’ll warm no matter whether Ray Hadley’s, Alan Jones’ or Andrew Bolt’s audience shares go up or down, no matter how many people phone in with cheap arguments like the one above.
Our government thinks it can solve the problems of 200 years of industrial CO2 pollution, plus burgeoning world population with a few hundred million dollars in handouts to favoured industries. It thinks it’s smart because fools, infected by the Optimism Gene, think they can wish Global Warming away by getting rid of everyone who’s trying to do something about it, from Julia Gillard and Malcolm Turnbull to Tim Flannery.
Whether there’s a typo in a draft copy of the IPCC report won’t affect Global Warming.
It won’t change the science.
An email sent from one climate scientist to another, intercepted and deliberately misinterpreted, doesn’t negate that science.
A smartarsed comment here, a snigger there, a heckle somewhere else won’t alter the basic facts.
Eventually we will pay an economic price.
Our farms (already back in drought again, under assault from low rainfail and record high temperatures) will become untenable at the margins, then closer to the core.
Our mining companies, too used to digging holes and selling off dirt, will find they no longer have customers, as other countries impose penalties on us for treating Global Warming as a problem of political science, not climate science.
Many of our natural wonders will incur severe damage: like the Reef, our forests, our lakes, our snowfields.
Eventually we will become a pariah state, a rogue nation, out of step with the rest of the World and singled out for special punishment because we started doing something then deliberately stopped to save a few dollars in the short term, but mostly because we punch way above our weight when it comes to per capita CO2 pollution and the absolute, worldwide pollution that arises from our fossil fuel exports.
Our manufacturing industries will miss out on the opportunities afforded by adapting to climate-based technologies. When the car makers inevitably leave, all that equipment purchased and installed to service it will lie idle, with nothing to take up the slack.
Just as the path to the peak of Everest takes time, the certain ruination that will overtake us will take time also. But it will happen, unless we pull our heads out of the sand and stop thinking to ourselves that a sniggering comment, or a barroom quip, or an opinion poll will make things right.
They won’t.
Anyone have a copy of the memorandum of understanding? I looked at the PUP website but couldn’t see it. You’d think in the interests of transparency it’d be public.
[But when do we stop talking about breaking records and admit we’ve got a radically different climate?]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/new-climates-for-melbourne-sydney-predicted-20131009-2v91j.html#ixzz2hHQYNlSU
[Anyone have a copy of the memorandum of understanding? I looked at the PUP website but couldn’t see it. You’d think in the interests of transparency it’d be public.]
It is just being amended to include provision for a once-a-year all expenses paid holiday at Coolum for Ricky and his motoring mates
Lefty E, if you were wanting to be completely pedantic you’d have to say that the balance of power is shared amongst all the cross benchers as no individual grouping has the power to deliver the votes needed to either the Government or Opposition.
It makes as much sense saying Greens+PUP+Muire share the balance as saying Greens+LDP+FFP+DLP+Xenophon share it, or any other permutation.
[the PUP’s Tasmanian senator-elect Jacqui Lambie pledged to accept a majority vote in the Palmer party room, even if she disagreed with policies.]
– See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/motoring-enthusiast-ricky-muir-climbs-aboard-clive-palmers-bandwagon/story-fn59niix-1226736641566#sthash.IxpC7Ai5.dpuf
And Clive has introduced the PUP version of the Labor ‘Pledge’.
I wonder if Clive is bound as well?
They may wait to release PUP Memorandum to see how many names are on it due to WA Senate recount
Conservatives now clearly controlling the senate next year.
Would not surprise me to see an all out attack on IR by the conservative block.
Have Eric, Penny, Christine and X got into a huddle yet to talk senate voting reform?
[They may wait to release PUP Memorandum]
That would require transparency – and there is no evidence yet that Clive will do transparency.
[Conservatives now clearly controlling the senate next year.
Would not surprise me to see an all out attack on IR by the conservative block.]
And the left should work on Jacquie Lambie – she will be the one most likely to be won over.
Excellent Skit from Daily Show re the govt shutdown.
http://youtu.be/DQc-aVc562Q
If Muir puts forward a Senate motion, an amendment to a bill or anything else, will he be outvoted by the PUPers and force to vote against his own proposals? Or will he have to clear everything through another party before he can propose it?
The whole thing is farcical really, is the party happy that it’s now been taken over by Clive Palmer with very little in exchange?
[Indeed. Though Id call that a “shared BOP” myself – perhaps Im just being pedantic, but it seems to me GRNs + PUP/Muir is the BOP.]
It is whichever 6 senators that can get the Coalition to 39 that are the balance of power.
True, Itep: for our purposes, Ive always taken BOP to mean “senators outside the two major parties that can create a majority for one”. But to me, BOP is best used for the most economical of those combos, involving the fewest negotiations for a major.
On that definition, GRNs and PUP/Muir would be the BOP in the next senate. But of course any 6 will do for the LNP (for 39), whereas the 12 needed by the ALP to block (38) must include the nine GRNs.
In either case, PUP/Muir is certainly in a good position – and even better for blocking than passing – but neither is strictly a BOP.
[If Muir puts forward a Senate motion, an amendment to a bill or anything else]
From all evidence to date – unlikely
[The whole thing is farcical really, is the party happy that it’s now been taken over by Clive Palmer with very little in exchange?]
More relevant question is – how much party was there in the first place to be potentially taken over?
The irony is that the Libs might rely on the Greens to get their PPL scheme through. Labor are agin, Bob Day is agin, the others well …..??
Poroti
[If the answer to any of these questions is “no”, …]
Suspect they meant “yes”
[More relevant question is – how much party was there in the first place to be potentially taken over?]
Well given the shennanigans of recent days there is a party it appears. One state branch of the party was dismissed for not making statements in line with party policy. Meanwhile the actual parliamentary representative of the party has neutered the party by selling out all of its bargaining power to Clive Palmer.
[But to me, BOP is best used for the most economical of those combos, involving the fewest negotiations for a major.]
Perhaps to you, but that’s not what the balance of power is.
In any case, there may be less negotiation required for PUP+ 3 others than PUP+Green as there’s likely to be more commonality of interests between PUP and others than PUP and Greens.
[Meanwhile the actual parliamentary representative of the party has neutered the party by selling out all of its bargaining power to Clive Palmer.]
The Victorian voters for the AMEP might be upset by this – but wait – there are too few voters to be upset …
@strom_m: .@AndrewJCrook reports @AlboMP needs 58% of members’ vote to win. @billshortenmp has 49/86 caucus votes #fb http://t.co/hn9K95e3Te
Remember numbers in Senate may change. May be 1 Green and 1 Sport not Labor and PUP
It’s cool and wet in Melbourne. This proves that “climate change” is a UN plot to take away our freedoms.
zoomster
Posted Thursday, October 10, 2013 at 12:09 pm | PERMALINK
In other words, the Left are worried that Albo won’t get up, and are already trying to cast doubt on the outcome.
Scarecely helpful.
—ah its started. the right and greens have one thing in common, never take responsibility. when shorten falters it will be because of election, that members not behind him
From the same episode of the Daily show. Jon Stewart interviewed the young girl malala. He asks her about the taliban targetting her.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/malala-yousafzai-left-jon-stewart-speechless-2013-10
[Perhaps to you, but that’s not what the balance of power is.
In any case, there may be less negotiation required for PUP+ 3 others than PUP+Green as there’s likely to be more commonality of interests between PUP and others than PUP and Greens.]
Well, back to my original point: I assume we agree that PUP/ Muir doesnt have a ‘BOP’. Someone should tell the ABC.
BB@1404
The Everest analogy is a good one, even a child could understand it.
Psephos
[Yes but you think everyone to the right of the Baader-Meinhof Gang is a right-winger.]
Not so. I’m not convinced that one can chracterise the Baader-Meinhoff gang in left-right terms. There was an ensemble of claims that overlap with claims common on the far left, but they certainly had no perspective of mobilising the producers to refashion property realtions after their interests on a world scale.
It would probably be more accurate to characterise them as Blanquist-populists. I would be to their left, even now, were they alive and active on the same basis.
so a mining geek might determine outcomes in parliament
and votes can be bought
money rules
there’s not much good to be said of palmer when all boils down. he is a self ingulgent industrial oligarch and profoundly anti democratic – as bad as murdoch in principle
[TTS is characterised by rapid, repetitive and involuntary swearing whenever the prime minister appears on radio or television.]
MikeH My OH says thanks a million. He was thinking he had an incurable disease but is to know happy that he’ll be cured in 2016 🙂
[It’s cool and wet in Melbourne. This proves that “climate change” is a UN plot to take away our freedoms.]
Yes, and furthermore, I was driving my car today and it didnt crash.
This proves I dont need insurance.
geoffrey
the Right are not the one leaking their whinges to the media.
getting tired of alarmist weather and fire warning. this is same weather as yesterday.
problem is one day there will be an emergency
Clive doesn’t look like he’s long for this world. I suppose he could always buy a new body.
zoomster
so they should. anyone but shorten
Its on – WA recount.
[“I will therefore direct the Australian Electoral Officer for Western Australia to conduct a full recount of all above-the-line Senate ballot papers and informal ballots originally counted in the fifteen electoral divisions in accordance with section 278 of the Electoral Act as soon as possible.” – Ed Killesteyn, Electoral Commissioner.]
http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Media_releases/2013/e10-10.htm
Who was that tosser here a week ago who ludicrously opined that Ludlum should cop it sweet – when no sane member of ANY party would or should ever accept such advice on a 14 vote margin?
Whoever that was – up yours. 🙂
[so a mining geek might determine outcomes in parliament
and votes can be bought
money rules]
Labor and the Extreme Greens got Palmer united to parliament with their preferences. They should be reminded of this every single day.
[I think Sydney will get a southerly buster tonight]
Shellbell Smarty pants 🙂
lefty 3 @1435
There’s been NO warming trend in Melbourne since the 31st of August. Therefore, summer will not occur this year. 😛
geoffrey, they should direct their energy to where it will actually make a difference, inside Labor.
Following 1444, or to the people who are actually relevant to the decesion, *inside* Labor.
That list of who is voting for whom in Caucus is interesting.
No factional alliances there – not!
Who would have guessed that the SDA would cast there votes for Shorten.
Nova Peris is voting for Albo – good on her!
@ReachTEL: The full results of the Fairfax Media NSW/VIC Labor leadership poll are now available on our website: http://t.co/HvbvPy2EGY #auspol
“their”
Shorten presser now
“@CliveFPalmer: The @PalmerUtdParty strongly objects to @AusElectoralCom defying own policy to now order recount of Senate vote in WA. Undemocratic #auspol”