Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research remains the only regularly reporting opinion poll in town, and it continues to show the Coalition with a weaker lead than they scored at the election.

Essential Research is still the only opinion poll operating to its regular schedule, Morgan having sat out last week and Newspoll presumably holding off at least until Labor sorts out its leadership. The latest weekly result has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at an unspectacular 52-48, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady on last week), 35% for Labor (down one) and the Greens on 9% (steady). Other questions relate to internet privacy, including a finding that US surveillance programs such as Edward Snowden revealed are opposed by 45% and supported by 24%, and the importance of our various foreign relationships, showing “very important” ratings of 56% for New Zealand, 51% for the United States, 46% for China, 42% for the United Kingdom and 35% for Indonesia.

UPDATE: And now Morgan comes through with its normal multi-mode poll which was skipped last week, carrying the striking headline that Labor leads 50.5-49.5 on respondent-allocated preferences. However, Morgan produces a strikingly different result from preference flows as per the recent election, with the Coalition lead at 53-47. But I find this hard to reconcile with the primary votes: the Coalition is at 42%, 3.5% lower than at the election, Labor at 37%, which is 3.6% higher, and the minor parties only slightly changed at 9% for the Greens, 4.5% for the Palmer United Party and 7.5% for others. Somehow though, two-party preferred comes out as very similar to the election result, which as best as anyone can tell is about 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,828 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  3. Labor and the Extreme Greens got Palmer united to parliament with their preferences. They should be reminded of this every single day.

    Sean – I’m sure we can leave that job to you.

  4. [“@CliveFPalmer: The @PalmerUtdParty strongly objects to @AusElectoralCom defying own policy to now order recount of Senate vote in WA. Undemocratic #auspol”]

    Someone should point out to Clive that you can’t defy a policy when there is no policy to start with.

  6. One can only hope that the same thing happens in this recount as happened in the last WA Senate recount – the good guys get a bigger win.

  7. Stephen Spencer ‏@sspencer_63 3m
    Choose your narrative: “Albo’s win without Caucus support would damage ALP”. “Shorten’s win without party support would damage ALP”.

    These new rules must be dispensed with.

  8. psyclaw

    [Hope all the nongs are here today to read it.]

    If they are nongs

    a) they probably won’t read it
    b) they might read iot but not understand its import
    c) they might understand its import but ignore it on cultural grounds and do their Groundhog Day routine much as if they were unaware.

    I know that ST repeats this one on a regular basis and never acknowledges that he’s had the problem with the claim pointed out to him here already.

  9. Wompact Wank:

    [ Just to ensure we are all on the same page:

    Weather is not climate.]

    Right. Well done.

    [Therefore, today’s weather in NSW is not evidence of human impact on Climate Change.

    OK.]

    In isolation, no. But today’s weather is part of a trend of more frequent hotter-than-average days that is certainly evidence of climate change.

    You see, not too difficult to understand. Even for you.

  10. The problem with the Everest analogy is that the Rummels of this world will proclaim we’ve reached the peak and are on our way down everytime we hit a dip.

  13. In some respects the Senate after June 30 next year could offer ‘stability’ as Gottsliebsen has suggested (meaning all the Senate will become is a rubber stamp for the LNP) or the Senate will get used to being king maker when it comes to which legislation will get up and which will not. Meaning a highly unpredictable set of circumstances.

    I am inclined to the latter view.

    What we are likely to see is the media home in on Palmer to see if the legislation the conservatives bring forward is to his liking or not. And, Palmer being Palmer, he will dominate the lime light.

    I think the conservatives are fools if they think they are going to have an easy time of it. Mind you, they don’t have to try hard at being fool most of the time.

    On the other hand, just how Labor and the Greens avoid being bit players in all this will be interesting.

    I do not get the sense that Palmer will do any favours per se for Abbott and the LNP will find there will be a price to pay.

    The PPL scheme is probably already dead in the water.

    On the other hand the repeal of the CT and the MRRT is almost as certain.

    But, by July of 2014 who will care? The MRRT has not collected the taxes planned and let the miners off the hook while the CT has lost most of its negative if not symbolic clout.

    I will be interested how Hockey plans to get the $580 worth of savings from the CT repeal into my pocket.

    Or is this this another shonk promise – among many so far?

  14. [Someone should point out to Clive that you can’t defy a policy when there is no policy to start with.]

    Glad someone else spotted this – I thought I was going mad.

  15. guytaur

    Posted Thursday, October 10, 2013 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

    @aus_media: ISS takes issue with Murdoch re-election: ISS has recommended 21st Century Fox shareholders vote against the … http://t.co/aTNNR06LHS
    ——————————————-

    Seeing that this report is in “The Australian” I noticed that no-one was stupid/game enough to put their name to it …..

  17. I can’t see any agreement between PUP and any single senator parties being worth the paper it is or isn’t written on. I can’t see Clive in the job of herding cats. Keeping his own party in line will be more than he can do.

  19. Tricot

    The PPL scheme is probably already dead in the water.

    ————————————————-

    Clive calls it a *SCAM* ….

  21. Gottsliebsen

    For a while has been banging on about Tone having a great plan for running government and for boasting business.

    Strangely i have not seen any policies or suggestions to support the thesis.

  23. Roger M

    [Keeping his own party in line will be more than he can do.]

    When tackled on anything to do with Senate control, Clive slides away into the undergrowth like a Cheshire Cat, saying wtte “Nothing to do with me, I’m in the HOR.”
    Weird? Or smart?

  24. Abbott has no plans for travel changes

    PRIME Minister Tony Abbott says he has no plans to change politicians’ travel entitlements because he doesn’t want members of parliament to be stuck at their desks in Canberra.

    Speaking on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Brunei, Mr Abbott said whatever the system is, there will also be arguments “at the margins” about what is and what is not appropriate.

    “I’m not proposing to change the system,” he told reporters on Thursday.

    http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/abbott-has-no-plans-for-travel-changes/story-e6frfku9-1226736771216

  25. Why would the AEC only do a recount on the above the line senate ballots?

    “I have decided that there should be a recount of all formal Western Australian above-the-line ballots and informal ballots – as determined by Divisional Returning Officers for the fifteen WA electoral divisions in accordance with section 273A of the Electoral Act.”

  27. badcat

    Posted Thursday, October 10, 2013 at 2:12 pm | Permalink

    Abbott has no plans for travel changes

    “I’m not proposing to change the system,” he told reporters on Thursday.

    ————————————————-

    Pollie Speak translation – “I’ll continue to rort the system”

  29. [badcat

    Posted Thursday, October 10, 2013 at 2:12 pm | Permalink

    Abbott has no plans for travel changes

    “I’m not proposing to change the system,” he told reporters on Thursday.

    ————————————————-

    Pollie Speak translation – “I’ll continue to rort the system”]

    Or “It works for me”

  32. Bushfires Bill @1404 – excellent post.

    Sydney is forecast to beat it’s all time heat record for October today, only 10 days into the month. Using Alan Jones logic, that would ‘prove’ that we are warming, especially given the number of 30 degree plus days we’ve had so far this Spring. Of course a hot day or a hot season doesn’t prove anything, it’s the overall trend, which is becoming unmistakeable.

    It is now 36 degrees with clear skies in Sydney.

  33. kevjohnno

    The problem with the Everest analogy is that the Rummels of this world will proclaim we’ve reached the peak and are on our way down everytime we hit a dip.

    Yeah, or that it’s easier to climb in balmy 30 degree heat with no snow or ice.

  34. I think Clive Palmer and the minor party reps in the Senate will ruthlessly use their position to extract concessions from the Coalition in order that the Coalition can get it’s legislation through. This is what has happened in NSW with the Christian Democrats, Shooters and Fishers.

  35. Labor should join with the Greens and minor parties to cap the PPL Scheme at an income of about $70,000, but keep the 1.5% levy on large companies. They could do this on the grounds of economic responsibility and even most Liberals would probably be relieved.

  36. I’ve forgotten why Alan Jones has chosen to pursue this cause, but he’s obviously not attacking Greg Hunt very effectively.

    [Love him or loathe him, Alan Jones was instrumental to the Lock the Gate campaign. He turned up to MC community forums on Queensland’s Darling Downs, the Southern Highlands and Liverpool Plains in NSW. He spoke at rallies, addressed the National Press Club and used his radio program to take the issue to millions in metropolitan areas far from the gasfields. To this day he continues to interview people opposed to the industry. From across the political divide and from economy to health to property rights to food security and beyond, people involved in diverse parts of the campaign have had access through Jones to millions of listeners. ]

    http://nofibs.com.au/2013/10/10/csg-something-everyone-molessarah-reports/#sthash.qUfXRCvL.dpuf

  39. Martin B

    [Don’t Greens support it? LNP + Greens is a majority.]

    Regrettably, kind of …

    The Greens want it capped at $100k for the primary care giver plus 2 weeks for the secondary care giver and to include super. So it’s similar but somewhat less generous to the especially well off.

    This is an example of Greens policy that I don’t support. I don’t agree that the state should provide paid parental leave unless the state is the employer. If it is a workplace entitlement, then employers should bear the cost.

    I’d prefer funds were applied means-tested access to high quality early childhood and out of school care, and that parents of children negotiate leave as needed with employers.

  41. I just like the description

    [HE SWAGGERED down Peel St like a Nashville star, posing in a cowboy hat, dancing a country-style jig and even embracing a mystery blonde holding a “Free Hugs” sign.

    But Prime Minister Tony Abbott has found himself in the eye of an expense scandal storm after it emerged his trip to the 2012 Country Music Festival was anything but “free” for taxpayers.

    The then-Opposition leader claimed $9347 in work expenses for the whirlwind visit – despite not even staying in the city overnight.]

    http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/1828922/free-reign-pm-tony-abbott-under-fire-for-tamworth-festival-trip-as-expense-scandal-deepens/

  47. Tony Abbott laying down the rules to Clive from Brunei..

    So now he will be able to backflip on his pronouncements post election, on top of his pre election U-turns.

    [Speaking on the sidelines of an international summit in Brunei, Mr Abbott said he was aware of the development.
    “I am confident that everyone in this parliament will want to see a different spirit this time than last time,” he told reporters.
    “I’m confident everyone in this parliament very well understands that the new government has a clear mandate to get certain things done.”
    Mr Abbott says the public also wants a more constructive parliament after three years of minority government.
    But he’s already dismissed Mr Palmer’s call for more resources for his party to ensure efficient decision-making on legislation.
    “We will adhere to the standard convention when it comes to staffing minor parties and independents,” he said.
    ]

    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2013/10/10/13/32/govt-has-a-mandate-abbott-tells-palmer

  49. [Choose your narrative: “Albo’s win without Caucus support would damage ALP”. “Shorten’s win without party support would damage ALP”.]

    These new rules must be dispensed with.]

    Ive got a better idea: reject the narrative.

    Here’s a good narrative: unlike other major Australian poltical parties, we now have a democratic leadership selection process.

    The other really obvious problem with the above proposition is that leadershit was a narrative entirely created during the ‘caucus-decides’ era. And its far, far worse than anything that will result from a split vote.

    No knifings. Can’t happen. Thanks Rudd. End of story.

  50. victoria

    Ah, but he swaggered down the street and got a free hug! And the locals thought the visit was well worth it – except that they weren’t the ones paying!!!

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