Essential Research is still the only opinion poll operating to its regular schedule, Morgan having sat out last week and Newspoll presumably holding off at least until Labor sorts out its leadership. The latest weekly result has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at an unspectacular 52-48, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady on last week), 35% for Labor (down one) and the Greens on 9% (steady). Other questions relate to internet privacy, including a finding that US surveillance programs such as Edward Snowden revealed are opposed by 45% and supported by 24%, and the importance of our various foreign relationships, showing “very important” ratings of 56% for New Zealand, 51% for the United States, 46% for China, 42% for the United Kingdom and 35% for Indonesia.
UPDATE: And now Morgan comes through with its normal multi-mode poll which was skipped last week, carrying the striking headline that Labor leads 50.5-49.5 on respondent-allocated preferences. However, Morgan produces a strikingly different result from preference flows as per the recent election, with the Coalition lead at 53-47. But I find this hard to reconcile with the primary votes: the Coalition is at 42%, 3.5% lower than at the election, Labor at 37%, which is 3.6% higher, and the minor parties only slightly changed at 9% for the Greens, 4.5% for the Palmer United Party and 7.5% for others. Somehow though, two-party preferred comes out as very similar to the election result, which as best as anyone can tell is about 53.5-46.5.
mikehillard
Late evening. Here is a history of Sydney’s best busters of which I remember the 1982 and 2006 ones. None are in October.
[The following Southerly Busters brought the strongest winds to Sydney.
•1942 Two notable Southerly Busters were recorded in 1942. The first gusted to 104 km/h at 4.00 pm on 25 January 1942 and was followed by severe thunderstorms. The second recorded a gust of 109 km/h at 4.40 pm on 4 October.
•1943 Significant Southerly Busters in 1943 struck on 23 March (gust of 95 km/h at 3.40 pm) and 28 March (gust of 108 km/h at 9.50 pm).
•1945 On 9 November 1945, a Southerly Buster gust of 105 km/h occurred at 6.10 pm, accompanied by thunderstorms.
•1946 The largest temperature drop associated with a Southerly Buster occurred on November 6, when the temperature changed from 39.1°C at 4.00 pm to 19°C at 5.00 pm. (This buster also brought a maximum wind gust of 91 km/h.)
•1948 The strongest Southerly Buster on record at Sydney Airport hit at 6.40 pm on 18 December 1948 with a maximum wind gust of 113 km/h. The maximum temperature that day was 34.8°C.
•1957 After a maximum temperature of 40.4°C on 2 December 1957, a squally Southerly Buster reached Sydney at 5.30 pm, with a peak gust of 104 km/h.
•1958 Wind gusts in a Southerly Buster reached 100 km/h at 5.10 pm on 10 January 1958.
•1973 Notable Southerly Busters in 1973 struck on 6 February (maximum gust 98 km/h) after a maximum temperature that day of 39.7°C, and on 20 November (gust of 96 km/h) after a maximum of 38.4°C.
•1982 A Southerly Buster on 25 November 1982 was accompanied by dust storms and preceded by a record November temperature of 41.8°C in Sydney. The maximum wind gust at Sydney Airport was 89 km/h at 4.10 pm.
•1994 A very late Southerly Buster arrived at 2.00 am on 29 December 1994, with a peak gust of 98 km/h at 3.09 am.
•2001 On 15 January 2001, a Southerly Buster with a maximum gust of 100 km/h caused blackouts, property damage and uprooted trees. Temperatures reached 46°C at Penrith. This was the hottest day in Sydney’s western suburbs since 1939.
•2003 The second strongest Southerly Buster on record reached a maximum gust of 109 km/h at 5.22 pm on 8 January 2003. Thunderstorms with small hail followed the change and 70 suburbs lost power after lightning strikes.
•2004 A Southerly Buster with a maximum gust of 91 km/h reached Sydney at 4.30 pm on 4 December 2004, after a maximum temperature of 41.8°C.
•2006 On 1 January 2006, a Southerly Buster reached Sydney at 8.17 pm with a maximum gust of 95 km/h. The maximum temperature at Observatory Hill that day was 45.2°C, the second highest on record.]
http://www.bom.gov.au/social/2011/10/southerly-busters/
lizzie
Well actually they were via their tax contributions…….
I (obviously mistakenly) thought that “Erica” was the creation of someone on PB.
Clive obviously has extremely low regard for Erica:
[If ‘Erica’ says he wants to negotiate individually with people, well, he’ll have to negotiate with our team or he won’t be negotiating at all. It’ll be a very, very, very, very cold winter –
Clive Palmer]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-10/clive-palmer-joins-forces-with-motoring-enthusiast-ricky-muir-i/5013556
Rortgate gets even worse. I think Abbott’s in genuine trouble here. Its starting to like like he’s one of the worst offenders by a country mile.
[…Prime Minister Tony Abbott has found himself in the eye of an expense scandal storm after it emerged his trip to the 2012 Country Music Festival was anything but “free” for taxpayers.
The then-Opposition leader claimed $9347 in work expenses for the whirlwind visit – despite not even staying in the city overnight.
…Rob Taber, who ran against Mr Joyce as an independent at last month’s federal poll, said the sheer sum of Mr Abbott’s expense bill in Tamworth warranted a “thorough investigation”.
“I reckon it’s bloody awful and if Abbott gets away with this, all hell will break loose,” Mr Taber said.
“I really don’t know how you could spend $10,000 in one day in Tamworth.]
**$10,000 IN ONE DAY!**
http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/1828922/free-reign-pm-tony-abbott-under-fire-for-tamworth-festival-trip-as-expense-scandal-deepens/?cs=159
[The then-Opposition leader claimed $9347 in work expenses for the whirlwind visit – despite not even staying in the city overnight.]
FFS! What a crook!
$10,000 in a day in Tamworth, o boy just how does Tone cope when at home in one of the most expensive parts of the country.
It appears that Tone is in need of a financial administrator cause he can’t seem to manage.
[If ‘Erica’ says he wants to negotiate individually with people, well, he’ll have to negotiate with our team or he won’t be negotiating at all.]
One could argue, theoretically, that Senator Abetz could negotiate with the Greens, but it’s certainly hard to imagine that happening.
Been to Tamworth a number of times. You’d be hard pressed spending $1,000 even if you bought the whole pub round of drinks.
[It appears that Tone is in need of a financial administrator cause he can’t seem to manage.]
Yeah, *this guy* is going to manage our economy?
mikehilliard
Well he is a bit of a “Grog monster” 🙂
lefty e
Posted Thursday, October 10, 2013 at 3:17 pm | Permalink
The then-Opposition leader claimed $9347 in work expenses for the whirlwind visit – despite not even staying in the city overnight.
FFS! What a crook !
———————————————
Oh ….that joins with NLP Tony Crook ( reported earlier on here for his “oversight” and “back payment” ) ….
So now we have Tony Crook & Toady Crook …..
Stop laughing, class. Tony hired a plane to get there.
lefty e@1509
With Joe’s help.
And his new stetson was the most expensive in the shop 🙂
[George Megalogenis @GMegalogenis 2h
A PM with questionable expense claims; a tongue-tied treasurer; a leaderless opposition and a Senate owned by Clive Palmer. #envyoftheworld ]
lizzie
Posted Thursday, October 10, 2013 at 3:26 pm | Permalink
And his new stetson was the most expensive in the shop
———————————————-
What did they say about George Bush ???
Big Hat – No Cattle …… 🙂
[WATCH: @Lateline tonight. TAI’s Richard Denniss explains how @TonyAbbottMHR trade policy could get Aust sued.]
DisplayName from a while back:
Excellent point. It is up to the ALP to legitimize the new process and the new leader. The LNP and the media can’t exploit division if the ALP membership and MPs don’t generate any.
So learn the lesson of the last 6 years and lock in behind whoever your process comes up with. As everyone has been saying, both are good candidates, so accept the result and take the fight to the tories.
TA needs to watch his definitions when excusing his expenses
[ Jonathan Swan @jonathanvswan 4m
Department of Finance rules state that “official business” (PM’s description of Ironman travel) must involve “Properly constituted… (1/2)
. ..meetings of a government advisory committee or task force provided that the Senator or member is a member of the committee or task force”.]
Re: PPL
If the LNP need to negotiate with the Greens to get PPL up, the ALP should stand back and not get involved.
If the LNP do this, and then ever complain about a “Labor/Greens alliance” again they need to wear the hypocrisy totally.
It’s not that the Greens have cooties, of course, but that the LNP has played heavily on saying they have…
Jackol
[ …both are good candidates, so accept the result and take the fight to the tories.]
Yep !
[The outcome, whatever it is, will only be a problem if the people in Labor choose to make it a problem. What anyone else imagines as Labor’s problem is irrelevant.]
Exactly! Likewise, if you want a guaranteed problem, which we already know about, try the old leadership selection process and the oodles of leadershit narrative that now come with it.
kevjohnno@1475
The BTLs have already been checked multiple times during data entry.
Beer holder slogan wins ‘Ernies’ sexism prize
STUDENTS from Sydney University have been handed Australia’s annual gold “Ernie” award for sexism for distributing beer holders branded “It’s not rape if it’s my birthday”.
The politics award went to his conservative colleague Mal Brough for naming a quail dish on a menu at an election fundraiser after ex-premier Julia Gillard due to its “small breasts, huge thighs and a big red box”.
– See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/beer-holder-slogan-wins-ernies-sexism-prize/story-e6frg6nf-1226736840058#sthash.zr9bfvAq.dpuf
I’ve had a look at the ReachTEL primaries for NSW and Vic and I estimate a 1.5% swing to Labor since the election in NSW and 1.1% in Victoria on those numbers. They concur with every other poll in showing the Coalition below the election result but are closer to the election result than the others.
[TA needs to watch his definitions when excusing his expenses
Jonathan Swan @jonathanvswan 4m
Department of Finance rules state that “official business” (PM’s description of Ironman travel) must involve “Properly constituted… (1/2)
. ..meetings of a government advisory committee or task force provided that the Senator or member is a member of the committee or task force”.]
That’s easy. The task force comprised all competitors in the triathlon and the task was to compete.
[Kevin Bonham
…
The BTLs have already been checked multiple times during data entry.]
Thanks Kevin
[“I have decided that there should be a recount of all formal Western Australian above-the-line ballots and informal ballots – as determined by Divisional Returning Officers for the fifteen WA electoral divisions in accordance with section 273A of the Electoral Act.”]
More work for Clive’s team of lawyers. He’ll probably keep them on permanent retainer to examine every piece of legislation.
lefty e@1504
If its found he has claimed expenses for any of his bushfire outings he will be in strife up to his armpits.
[ A PM with questionable expense claims; a tongue-tied treasurer; a leaderless opposition and a Senate owned by Clive Palmer. ]
Only one of those will change any time soon.
Even with a plant nearly $10k for a short trip to Tamworth.
An airfare of nearly 3k will get you nearly anywhere in Asia.
Tone clearly doesn’t recongise value for money.
Libyan PM kidnapped
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2013/10/libyan-pm-ali-zeidan-kidnapped-by-armed-men-2013101042630477468.html
Are these guys for hire?
@bkjabour: We’ve converted government expenses into an easily searchable database (you’re welcome other journalists) http://t.co/mpGWXCylpm
@DrRimmer: Abbott government confirms ACT’s #marriageequality laws will be challenged in High Court as soon as they’re enacted http://t.co/a3RLyNcZRf …
Most of Abbbott’s Tamworth spend was for a charter aircraft to fly himself and daughter Frances to Tamworth for little more than a walk down the main street for the cameras.
Why did Abbott needed to spend $8,800 on chartering a plane? Tamworth is not exactly the back of beyond, there’s an airport and regular flights to and from Sydney. Surely he could have flown in and out on a commercial flight.
leone
Seems his time is so precious that special flights are the way to go.
If he’s like that as LOTO, what will he spend as PM?
“@ABCNews24: In the studio next: @GlennDruery the ‘preference whisperer’ who helped the micro parties maximise their vote http://t.co/TtTI3ZYXOH #auspol”
Given how much apologizing he obviously has to do, along with apologizing to other countries for the first lot of apologizing, he needs to use his apologizing time as effectively as he can.
[Why did Abbott needed to spend $8,800 on chartering a plane? Tamworth is not exactly the back of beyond, there’s an airport and regular flights to and from Sydney. Surely he could have flown in and out on a commercial flight.]
he was campaigning pure and simple. PBO should be suing the Liberal party for this
@GuardianAus: Scott Ludlam wins recount of 1.25m Senate votes in Western Australia http://t.co/Om8Zg3wcsj
kakuru@1532
LOL 😀
leone
Posted Thursday, October 10, 2013 at 4:05 pm | Permalink
Why did Abbott needed to spend $8,800 on chartering a plane? Tamworth is not exactly the back of beyond, there’s an airport and regular flights to and from Sydney. Surely he could have flown in and out on a commercial flight.
—————————————
But he’s Toady Rabbott – tory extraordinaire – cant expect him to mix with the “riff-raff” and the hoi polloi …..
[Therefore, today’s weather in NSW is not evidence of human impact on Climate Change.]
True and neither was last months record
No problem that records fall on a monthly basis?
Jackol
😀
[Just to ensure we are all on the same page:
Weather is not climate.
Therefore, today’s weather in NSW is not evidence of human impact on Climate Change.
OK.]
a little poem for rummel and tone to chant on the fireground
Here is a photo of Tony Abbott’s “task force” at the Pier-to-Pub swim
Have we ever lost a PM due to travel rorts and how soon can MT replace TA?
I’m thinking that whoever came up with the idea that Tones going to Port Macquarie on the public purse was OK because it was a ‘marginal’ seat is most likely regretting the idea.
MT’s probably wouldn’t stand scrutiny either.
“@702sydney: We hit 37.3 – a whole 0.9 less than the October record! We’ve hit the peak of the heat says @WeathermanABC”