Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research remains the only regularly reporting opinion poll in town, and it continues to show the Coalition with a weaker lead than they scored at the election.

Essential Research is still the only opinion poll operating to its regular schedule, Morgan having sat out last week and Newspoll presumably holding off at least until Labor sorts out its leadership. The latest weekly result has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at an unspectacular 52-48, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady on last week), 35% for Labor (down one) and the Greens on 9% (steady). Other questions relate to internet privacy, including a finding that US surveillance programs such as Edward Snowden revealed are opposed by 45% and supported by 24%, and the importance of our various foreign relationships, showing “very important” ratings of 56% for New Zealand, 51% for the United States, 46% for China, 42% for the United Kingdom and 35% for Indonesia.

UPDATE: And now Morgan comes through with its normal multi-mode poll which was skipped last week, carrying the striking headline that Labor leads 50.5-49.5 on respondent-allocated preferences. However, Morgan produces a strikingly different result from preference flows as per the recent election, with the Coalition lead at 53-47. But I find this hard to reconcile with the primary votes: the Coalition is at 42%, 3.5% lower than at the election, Labor at 37%, which is 3.6% higher, and the minor parties only slightly changed at 9% for the Greens, 4.5% for the Palmer United Party and 7.5% for others. Somehow though, two-party preferred comes out as very similar to the election result, which as best as anyone can tell is about 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,828 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Any campaigning that Tony did as LOTO is obviously “official Business” because LNP is the natural party of government. Anyone who can’t see that is obviously a pinko supporter of illegitimate governments.

  2. [I’m thinking that whoever came up with the idea that Tones going to Port Macquarie on the public purse was OK because it was a ‘marginal’ seat is most likely regretting the idea.]

    Tamworth, like Port Macquarie, was in a ‘marginal’ seat (held by Tony Windsor) so they probably used the same excuse for this trip.

  3. It seems that Sydney has maxed out at 37.3 degrees (99.1 F), so no record today, although it is Sydney’s third hottest October day on record. However, the first 10 days of October in Sydney are tracking just short of the all time October record average maximum and looking at the forecast, we will be tracking above the record by the 17th of the month. This follows the warmest July on record, the warmest August and the warmest September.

  4. [AFR: Penalty rates stay for restaurants, cafes
    The Fair Work Commission has rejected a push by restaurants and cafe owners to cut penalty rates paid to staff for working Saturdays, Sundays and public holidays.]

    http://t.co/zpt4INnFMF

    Will the FWC be the next thing Tony dissolves?

  5. DisplayName

    Posted Thursday, October 10, 2013 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

    Boo Turnbull!

    Go Morrison
    ————————————————–

    has Scoot “settled” his alleged traffic infrigements yet ?????

  6. I dunno… there was the Fire Brigade saying they’d never seen anything like the heat – 40C according to some – that was in store for us in Sydney today.

    An all time record in the offing!

    Public service announcements were made about locking up your house to keep the cool air in.

    Leave plenty of water for the dogs (even the stray dogs).

    Get your Bushfire Plan into Defcon #2. Pack bags, gather up photos, laptops and put the harnesses onto the pets ready for immediate evacuation.

    And what happened?

    A measly 36 degrees. THAT’S what happened!

    For Christ’s sake, if they can’t tell me whether it’s going to rain or be bloody hot tomorrow how can they predict what the weather will be like in 10 years?

    Global Warming is BUNK.

    The planet is cooling. The Earth is flat. Who needs bloody polar bears anyway? And I never go to the Barrier Reef (too many stone fish). Good riddance to all of ’em.

  7. davidwh

    In future, one of the requirements of party leaders may be to have recreational pursuits that don’t require them to be flown all over the country.

  8. [If charging the taxpayer 10,000 to spend one day in Tamworth, is not a rort, what bloody is?!!]

    Was it really necessary to charter a jet?

    The local Progress Association (or wtte) said it was good for Tamworth.

    So why didn’t THEY bloody pay for Abbott to attend? I betcha they wouldn’t have copped forking out for a Learjet.

  9. Roger

    [Any campaigning that Tony did as LOTO is obviously “official Business” because LNP is the natural party of government. Anyone who can’t see that is obviously a pinko supporter of illegitimate governments.]

    😆

  10. victoria

    Posted Thursday, October 10, 2013 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    If charging the taxpayer 10,000 to spend one day in Tamworth, is not a rort, what bloody is?!!

    ———————————————-

    Yeh …… let them eat cake …..

  11. Sean Tisme and new levels of silliness
    ___________
    Endlesly calling the Greens “Extreme Greens” is just more nonsense here on PB
    We could invent new names for all political parties…how about “Ultra-Reactionary Liberals” in the coming posts..or Country-Bumpkin-Nats
    The URLs sound like a good name for them Sean
    It’s a silly as using nicknames for politicians

    Try and be adult Sean or better ..just go off and do some homework ..surely you have some homework to do

  12. Given the number of trips Abbott did between 2010 and 2013 if the media reports one trip per day it will be well into Abbott’s second term as PM before they start looking at his current expenditures.

  13. Victoria my guess is that the explanation Abbott gave a few days back was meant to cover all his travel claims. I doubt people are likely to get him to explain each one individually.

  14. [Speaking at the APEC Summit in Bali on Tuesday, Mr Abbott said that he believed all his claims had been within entitlement.

    ”Let’s not forget that Port Macquarie was a marginal seat effectively and I want to assure you that I don’t go to marginal seats simply for sporting events, although the sporting event in question was a community event,” he said.

    ”I think you’ll find there were quite a few other community events involved in those visits.”]

    and

    [”It is a perfectly legitimate thing for a member of Parliament to do. Yes, to the extent it involves being away from home, I will claim travel allowance,” he said.

    ”Ask yourself the question – is this a frolic or is this a very serious act of community engagement?”]

    I think that is all you are likely to get victoria.

  15. Credlin must be going ballistic. Statesman Tony meeting the APEC leaders and blitzing the International Diplomacy circuit has turned into running from the media over rorts.

    Is it true Obama missed APEC ‘cos he heard Abbott was going? 😆

  16. [”Ask yourself the question – is this a frolic or is this a very serious act of community engagement?”]

    I wonder why Abbott’s office will not release details of any community meetings Abbott attended?

  17. “@Simon_Cullen: Palmer United Party says it won’t release the agreement with Motoring Enthusiast Party. Reason: “It’s an agreement between two Parties””

  18. Well we can demand all the explanations we like but that doesn’t mean he has to give them. Basically unless they are outside existing guidelines then all we can do is not vote for him the next time we get the chance.

  19. Let’s hope Abbott kept a detailed diary as he travelled on taxpayer’s money. Lots of scope for questions in QT, can be drawn out for weeks. After all, that’s what his lot did to Julia.

    Oh, forgot. When’s Parliament back, again?

  20. “@KatyGMLA: Fed AG requested us not commence laws once passed until High Court had determined case. We declined the request #MarriageEquality”

  21. Once again for the AFP to investigate they have to have

    1. A complaint.
    2. Some law that may have been broken.
    3. Some evidence indicating that the said law may have been broken.

    A complaint by itself is not sufficient for the AFP to commence an investigation.

    I would assume they would need something from the Dept of Finance indication what law may be involved and that thereb is sufficient evidence to support an investigation.

    My understanding of how the system works is that if the Dept of Finance has reason to believe an error has been made then they first point this out to the party concerned and request a refund. I doubt the AFP can act unless that process has been followed first unless there is some clear evidence the person had deliberately falsified the claim.

    The problem is the system as much as those taking advantage of it. Sort of similar to what people here argued about Thomson being innocent because the system was slack enough to allow him to do what he was alleged to have done.

  22. Back in November 2011 the Port Macquarie News interviewed Abbott after that triathlon.
    Here’s the quote – I have the article in front of me. It’s no longer available online, I can’t reveal how it came into my possession.
    [Mr Abbott said he believed keeping fit helped him be a better politician.
    “It’s mental therapy for me so I think it’s very important to get as much exercise as I can to ensure I have a stable mind for my political career” he said.]

    This article was cited by Jonathan Swan in the SMH today
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/free-nrl-finals-tickets-embarrass-contender-anthony-albanese-20131009-2v8pz.html

    Nothing at all about being in Port Macquarie because it was a marginal seat or because he had official business on his program. Just keeping fit and taking part in a sporting event.

    Abbott has been busy making up stuff in an attempt to justify spending taxpayers money on his obsession with fitness. He never thought anyone would ask questions or come up with any proof he was lying. He thought we were all mugs who would believe any old garbage. We aren’t, we didn’t.

  23. DWH

    AFP investigates to find out if a law has been broken. All are saying grey area so there is therefore good reason to believe AFP should investigate.

    Ignorance is no excuse.

  24. guytaur as I said the complaint is not sufficient by itself. Any JP will tell you that one of the first things they have to do if asked by a police office to witness a warrant is to determine what section of law the warrant covers (does the law exist?) and then whether the information contained in the warrant is sufficient to allow the JP to issue the warrant. The same conditions apply to the AFP on receiving a complaint.

  25. [1589
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, October 10, 2013 at 5:54 pm | PERMALINK
    “@KatyGMLA: Fed AG requested us not commence laws once passed until High Court had determined case. We declined the request #MarriageEquality”]

    Thereby exposing people who do get married at risk of having their marriages found to be void

  26. shellbell

    Therefore putting them in the same boat as the people who got married in California before the Supreme Court decision came down

  27. guytaur the Slipper complaint was different because there was evidence that the information in the expense claim had been altered to disguise the true nature of the claim. Now if someone can show something similar with any of Abbott’s claims then sure there may be grounds for an investigation. I haven’t seen anything yet to suggest that is the case.

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