Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah covers Sydney’s affluent northern beaches from Manly north to Dee Why, extending inland to Balgowlah, Mosman, Middle Cove and Forestville. Out of the 150 federal electorates, it ranks fourth highest for median family income after Wentworth, North Sydney and Curtin. Warringah accommodated the entire northern beaches as far as the Hawkesbury River from its establishment in 1922 until 1949, when the creation of Mackellar caused it to be reoriented around Mosman and Seaforth. A relatively static population has since seen it expand back to the north over successive redistributions, recovering Manly in 1969 and being anchored on the north shore of Port Jackson thereafter.
Warringah has been never been held by Labor, and has only once slipped from Liberal control since the party’s foundation in 1944. That occasion was in March 1969 when one-term member and instant loose cannon Edward St John raised concerns in parliament over then Prime Minister John Gorton’s indiscreet behaviour with a female journalist, prompting him to resign from the party pending expulsion. St John contested as an independent at the election the following October, but was only able to poll 20.6% against 50.2% for Liberal candidate Michael Mackellar. Mackellar went on to serve in the Fraser government as minister first for immigration and then for health, resigning from the latter role in 1982 over a failure to declare to customs a television set he brought into the country.
The mid-term retirement of Mackellar in February 1994 initiated a by-election at which the seat safely passed to its present incumbent, Tony Abbott. Abbott had famously studied to become a priest after leaving school, but soon became set on a course for parliament via student politics, a stint as a journalist with The Bulletin, and the position of press secretary to Opposition Leader John Hewson. After securing a safe seat in parliament at the age of 36, Abbott became a parliamentary secretary with the election of the Howard government in 1996, winning promotion to cabinet as Employment Services Minister after the 1998 election and then to workplace relations in 2001 and health and ageing in 2003.
Abbott first publicly declared his leadership ambitions after the Howard government’s defeat in 2007, but he withdrew from the contest when it became clear he would not have the numbers. In late November 2009 he was one of a number of front-benchers who quit as part of a revolt against leader Malcolm Turnbull’s support for the government’s emissions trading scheme, which initiated a leadership spill. Presumed favourite Joe Hockey was unexpectedly defeated in the first round, and Abbott prevailed over Turnbull in the second 42 votes to 41. Abbott’s first year in the leadership saw Kevin Rudd deposed as prime minister in favour of Julia Gillard and Labor lose its majority at the August 2010 election, but he was unable to secure the necessary support of independents in order to form government.
Despite weak personal approval ratings attributed to his abrasive political style, Abbott’s hold on the party leadership was consolidated during Labor’s second term by crushing opinion poll leads on voting intention, which eventually wrought the downfall of a second Labor prime minister on Abbott’s watch in June 2013. Abbott became Australia’s twenty-eighth prime minister after the Coalition easily defeated Labor and its newly returned leader Kevin Rudd at the ensuing election on September 7, gaining a national two-party swing of 3.4% and securing what appears at the time of writing to be an absolute majority of 16 seats.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The new government’s first opinion poll is testament either to the absence of a honeymoon bounce, or the particular pollster’s tendency towards constancy in its results. The poll is from Essential Research and is the normal fortnightly rolling average, which it to say half of it was conducted over the weekend of the election itself. It has the Coalition on 44% (45.6% at the election on current figures), Labor on 36% (33.6%) and the Greens (9%). The published 53-47 two-party preferred (the current election result being 53.4-46.6) is weaker for Labor than the primary vote shifts suggest it should be, which may be because they are still using preference allocations from 2010.
Further questions finding 38% thinking the election of micro-parties to the Senate “good for democracy” against 25% for bad, although I’d like to see more specific questions in relation to this topic. Forty-four per cent believe the lack of a Coalition Senate majority will make for benefit against 30% for worse. Respondents were asked about various aspects they might expect to get better or worse under the new government, including the surprising finding that cost of living and interest rates are expected to be worse. Other questions relate to the country’s economic outlook, all of which you can see here.
[Sure it would be nice if people could work with whoever the government of the day is but after a period of time the upper levels of the PS will always be partisan towards the government of the day.]
Yes, that Ken Henry was a complete disaster.
Based on current declaration vote distributions and votes left:
Fairfax: LNP beats Palmer by 79 votes
McEwen: ALP win by 501 votes
Parramatta: ALP win by 916 votes
Indi: Sophie loses by 355 votes
The remaining declaration votes might not fall the same way as previous ones, of course, but there are fewer and fewer votes left (4.8k, 7.5k, 3.3k and 1.6k respectively)
so sprocket u don’t think he will give gov, empl.
notice just join departments and job loses that way
awful for me to say but want people to be seen by the people to be losing jobs not him able to hide the fact
could they also hide the job fig. after all they say they will hide the boat arrivals
It’s Time
Well it couldn’t be worst than some of the dregs from the Howard era on the frontbench.
Martin B, correct. I think at this stage it’s looking unlikely PUP will end with 3, but we’ll see!
time for me to go
she has arrive mod lib
Assuming anyone could fathom Rabbott’s thinking! 😆
Perhaps Rabbott thinks that he can bypass women for promotion because they will remain loyal regardless of how many times you kick them in the guts.
The men however, out of disappointment and anger, more likely to be vengeful,leak and destabilize.
Rabbott knows his snake pit well!
[William @1750: Would that affect Scott Ludlam’s position?]
Yes, I’d say it would downgrade him from definitely winning to probably winning. Ludlam does it easily on the current projection because he gets PUP preferences ahead of Labor when PUP drops out. If those votes end up electing PUP instead, it ends up being a tight race between him and Louise Pratt for the last seat.
BTW: I am ignoring Provisional votes in the above as they are uninterpretable…
The quiet way to reduce PS headcounts is too
1 Merge departments
2 Freeze hiring
3 not renew temp staff
[The Greens – R.I.P.
They’re atheists; the expression “dirt to dirt” is more acceptable to them.]
This would be the party that just increased their number of senators, and held Melbourne with a swing, despite Lib prefs going agaist them?
I suppose everyone’s entitled to their delusions.
“@thepaulconti: Abbott: “It’s a meritocracy! Julie’s in there because she works damn hard and doesn’t need ANY help making our sandwiches.”
#governMANt”
I don’t like her style but I reckon Kelly O’Dwyer would be a bit dirty on missing a cabinet position.
Abbott getting a doing over on 7:30 for the Mono-Gynae Cabinet….and quite rightly so!
Bowen’s line: “The Cabinet of Afghanistan now has more women in it than Australia” is a beauty! 🙂
It’s Time
[Sarah Henderson]
A brand-new MP is not going to get a Cabinet post. Other than exceptional cases such as a Bob Hawke they have to earn their stripes as backbenchers.
confessions, the few times I’ve heard Sussan Ley she has been very good at putting the coalition’s case. I remember her running rings around a Labor opponent on Sky.
@thepaulconti: Abbott: “To be fair, I thought Barnaby and Joyce were two different people.”
#governMANt”
Kelly O’Bigmouth will be spewin’ about not getting a run on jersey.
I reckon her cat would of got a good old fashion kicking sometime today
Mod Lib
If you were Liberal leader, out of the list of women that were listed earlier who would you have included in the cabinet?
The funny thing about the 1st Abbott cabinet is the only woman in it should probably be replaced by Josh Frydenberg, a person Abbott has praised for his foreign affairs credentials.
But I guess Josh missed out because he is a man. 😆
triton
She could have taken Telecommunications and Turnbull take Treasury or Finance or Attorney General
Mod Lib
[
Abbott getting a doing over on 7:30 for the Mono-Gynae Cabinet]
Make sure you get the copyright on “Mono-Gynae Cabinet”. ‘Tis good.
[Minister for Social Service Kevin Andrews]
Oh dear. 🙁
Abbott’s right: Afghanistan has gone way too liberal on women’s representation.
#Taliban_voters_4_Tony
5 new results
Tim Christodoulou @tim_chr 2m
.@TonyAbbottMHR embargoes reports on asylum seekers and reduces the number of government press conferences. Who needs transparency? #abc730
Retweeted by Scott
——————————————–
whats the bet he does what they do in the good old u s a
send out the spokes person
Teresa Gambaro- Yes
Sarah Henderson
Kelly O’Dwyer- Yes
Donna Petrovich
Sharman Stone- Yes
Michaelia Cash
Concetta Fierravanti-Wells
Fiona Nash
Bridget McKenzie
Helen Korger (if elected)- Yes
Marise Payne- YES DEFINITELY
I would have also made the zombie Speaker and given the Kerosene bather a Cabinet post.
[1814
Mod Lib
Posted Monday, September 16, 2013 at 7:50 pm | PERMALINK
Abbott getting a doing over on 7:30 for the Mono-Gynae Cabinet….and quite rightly so!
Bowen’s line: “The Cabinet of Afghanistan now has more women in it than Australia” is a beauty! ]
It is a very good line, true and wholly predictable.
[poroti
….Make sure you get the copyright on “Mono-Gynae Cabinet”. ‘Tis good.]
Ta, quite liked it myself! :devil:
Is Abbott a Queen?
[ Monogynae: A form of insect social behaviour where there is only one queen in a nest or hive that reproduces for the entire group.]
Should have made cash minister for finance
[1721
confessions
I can’t believe David Johnston was kept on in Defence. He’s hopeless!]
I was wondering the same thing, confessions. If David is the best they can come up with, the LNP really are in trouble. I can’t recall seeing such a bunch of dullards in the one place.
There is a tale about Defence that runs along these lines… Whenever a new Minister of Defence is appointed a first briefing occurs. It is a ritual intended to determine who really is in control of the hierarchy and it concludes with the Secretary of the Department and the Head of the ADF apologising to the Minister. Ostensibly, they are issuing forewarning so that the appointee will not be shocked when, inevitably it seems, the Department and/or ADF let everyone down. It is a shrewdly ironic way of lowering expectations – of dissuading the new Minister from trying too hard to carry out their duty. The Secretary and the ADF are saying they will only be answerable in a nominal sense, and the Minister’s job is to carry the can when things go wrong.
In the current case, the apology should be reversed: David will certainly let everyone down long before and he should be ingratiating himself. Doubtless, he will do exactly that.
Sure it would be nice if people could work with whoever the government of the day is but after a period of time the upper levels of the PS will always be partisan towards the government of the day.
——————————————–
the problem the upper levels of the PS is they are political appointees.
Gone are the days when someone who has spent many years in a Dept and actually knows the job getting the top jobs
Nite all I will leave you with some deep thinking.
[I mowed the lawn today, and after doing so I sat down and had a cold beer.
The day was really quite beautiful, and the drink facilitated some deep thinking.
My wife walked by and asked me what I was doing and I said ‘nothing’.
The reason I said that instead of saying ‘just thinking’ is because she would have said ‘about what’.
At that point I would have to explain that men are deep thinkers about various topics which would lead to other questions.
Finally I thought about an age old question: Is giving birth more painful than getting kicked in the nuts?
Women always maintain that giving birth is way more painful than a guy getting kicked in the nuts.
Well, after another beer, and some heavy deductive thinking, I have come up with the answer to that question.
Getting kicked in the nuts is more painful than having a baby; and here is the reason for my conclusion.
A year or so after giving birth, a woman will often say, “It might be nice to have another child.”
On the other hand, you never hear a guy say, “You know, I think I would like another kick in the nuts.”
I rest my case. Time for another beer.]
😆
I didn’t like it, but it was Sharman Stone whom Turnbull sent out to criticize Labor every time a boat arrived, back in the days when boats had mostly gone off the radar. Since Turnbull she has almost disappeared without trace.
I’m surprised Brough didn’t get Indigenous Affairs after the “great” job he did last time
Correction. WA Senate Count
Whilst other States have finished proportioning out the above the line to Below the line votes WA has not completed this task. The number of BELOW the line votes for RUA and TCS is still unknown. This was my mistake. Nevertheless The number of below the line votes could bridge the margin required by Sports party to survive the count. Below the line votes will be crucial to the fold up. PUP are favorite to win if Sports party fall over. The ALP could gain the final seat much depends on the point of segmentation that elects the Liberal Party fourth candidate and the value at which PUP is elected.
[It is a ritual intended to determine who really is in control of the hierarchy and it concludes with the Secretary of the Department and the Head of the ADF apologising to the Minister. ]
That wouldn’t have washed with Stephen Smith. He’s a perfectionist, a workaholic and slave-driver. (7am meetings in the Minister’s office, yikes!) The Department and the brass had no doubt who was in control with him as Minister. And he was ably supported by Kelly and Feeney, the two biggest defence wonks in Canberra.
And Abbott didn’t have to make Johnston minister. He could have given it to Stuart Robert, who is (and I don’t often say this about Tories), a very impressive guy – smart, well-informed and articulate.
Has there been any public comment on the potential fate of Martin Parkinson as Treasury secretary? I know there has been speculation, but I’m trying to work out whether or not Hockey plans on making a change? This begs the question of who would replace Dr Parkinson. Treasury is a unique beast with a highly specialized role in the function of government. It is the only department with a truly pure policy function. It’s skills are highly specialized (macro economic policy anyone?) and it’s hard to conceive of anyone from outside a Treasury background or skills to lead the Department. I’m not sure what value a Treasury outsider could possibly bring. It’s not a delivery department (unlike, say, the ATO which has huge operational responsibilities of which we are all too aware and where Chris Jordan, exKPMG has recently takenovervthe role of Commissioner) so someone with a business background has nothing to offer. This is an issue that concerns me deeply. If Hockey replaces Parkinson, I really hope Hockey chooses his replacement wisely. A highly skilled, intellectually rigorous and independent Treasury is one of our country’s greatest assets. The much publicized revenue forecasting issues must be addressed through adjustments to Treasury’s forecasting model (god knows how!) but are hardly reason to emasculate the most critical agency of government with an outside, politically motivated appointment.
Never heard of him
Outsider
A few months ago i heard a humor that Judith Sloan might be in contention
Source: former Australian finance reporter on Sky Business
If PUP wins the WA Senate seat we will have Senator Wang to go with Senator Wong. Gung ho!
Another possible and excellent candidate could be Helen Sliver
I know next to nothing about Nigel Scullion, apart from the Kitchen Cabinet episode on him, but based on that I would hold out some hope that he might be well motivated – a breath of fresh air in the portfolio. Perhaps that’s too much to hope for.
ru
which reminds me of the joke I told my obstetrician after my 50 hour labour ended in a Caesar —
A bloke watches his wife give birth. It’s agonising, goes on for hours, with her suffering intense pain.
Finally, the baby is born.
The guy asks anxiously, “Doctor, is it a boy or a girl?”
“It’s a girl!” the doc announces.
“Thank Christ. I wouldn’t want any son of mine to go through that.”
[If Hockey replaces Parkinson, I really hope Hockey chooses his replacement wisely. ]
“Hockey” and “wisely” rarely appear in the same sentence.
[ @TonyAbbottMHR embargoes reports on asylum seekers and reduces the number of government press conferences. Who needs transparency? ]
I am betting that someone somewhere has already set up a web site that is going to be updated regularly with the number of boat arrivals and asylum seekers since PMFL.
If anyone has a link to such a thing, please post it here.
Psephos
[He could have given it to Stuart Robert, who is (and I don’t often say this about Tories), a very impressive guy – smart, well-informed and articulate. ]
I’ve never even heard of him. (Not sure what that says.)
And one thing I forgot to add: state treasuries are more akin to the Federal Department of Finance, with primary responsibilities related to budget management (collecting tax and monitoring spending). A Lib friendly state treasury appointee would not have the breadth of experience necessarily to perform the functions of the a federal role. Senior Fedeeral Treasury officials are rotated through its various divisions and functions to ensure they have the breadth of experience to fill senior roles. If there is to be a replacement, I hope it’s ex Treasury Dep Sec David Parker (ex OECD and who delivered the Howard Costello Government’s business tax reforms), who left 2 or 3 years ago to work on water allocation issues and the renewal,of the Murray Darling plan. At least the Nats should be happy!
Psephos @ 1845. That’s why i am worried….
[1837….Psephos]
You’re right about Stephen Smith, Psephos. He was on the front foot from the outset. He has a great capacity for work and high expectations of those around him. (The tale is basically true, I think. They tried, unsuccessfully, with Stephen and with Brendan Nelson.)