Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah covers Sydney’s affluent northern beaches from Manly north to Dee Why, extending inland to Balgowlah, Mosman, Middle Cove and Forestville. Out of the 150 federal electorates, it ranks fourth highest for median family income after Wentworth, North Sydney and Curtin. Warringah accommodated the entire northern beaches as far as the Hawkesbury River from its establishment in 1922 until 1949, when the creation of Mackellar caused it to be reoriented around Mosman and Seaforth. A relatively static population has since seen it expand back to the north over successive redistributions, recovering Manly in 1969 and being anchored on the north shore of Port Jackson thereafter.
Warringah has been never been held by Labor, and has only once slipped from Liberal control since the party’s foundation in 1944. That occasion was in March 1969 when one-term member and instant loose cannon Edward St John raised concerns in parliament over then Prime Minister John Gorton’s indiscreet behaviour with a female journalist, prompting him to resign from the party pending expulsion. St John contested as an independent at the election the following October, but was only able to poll 20.6% against 50.2% for Liberal candidate Michael Mackellar. Mackellar went on to serve in the Fraser government as minister first for immigration and then for health, resigning from the latter role in 1982 over a failure to declare to customs a television set he brought into the country.
The mid-term retirement of Mackellar in February 1994 initiated a by-election at which the seat safely passed to its present incumbent, Tony Abbott. Abbott had famously studied to become a priest after leaving school, but soon became set on a course for parliament via student politics, a stint as a journalist with The Bulletin, and the position of press secretary to Opposition Leader John Hewson. After securing a safe seat in parliament at the age of 36, Abbott became a parliamentary secretary with the election of the Howard government in 1996, winning promotion to cabinet as Employment Services Minister after the 1998 election and then to workplace relations in 2001 and health and ageing in 2003.
Abbott first publicly declared his leadership ambitions after the Howard government’s defeat in 2007, but he withdrew from the contest when it became clear he would not have the numbers. In late November 2009 he was one of a number of front-benchers who quit as part of a revolt against leader Malcolm Turnbull’s support for the government’s emissions trading scheme, which initiated a leadership spill. Presumed favourite Joe Hockey was unexpectedly defeated in the first round, and Abbott prevailed over Turnbull in the second 42 votes to 41. Abbott’s first year in the leadership saw Kevin Rudd deposed as prime minister in favour of Julia Gillard and Labor lose its majority at the August 2010 election, but he was unable to secure the necessary support of independents in order to form government.
Despite weak personal approval ratings attributed to his abrasive political style, Abbott’s hold on the party leadership was consolidated during Labor’s second term by crushing opinion poll leads on voting intention, which eventually wrought the downfall of a second Labor prime minister on Abbott’s watch in June 2013. Abbott became Australia’s twenty-eighth prime minister after the Coalition easily defeated Labor and its newly returned leader Kevin Rudd at the ensuing election on September 7, gaining a national two-party swing of 3.4% and securing what appears at the time of writing to be an absolute majority of 16 seats.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The new government’s first opinion poll is testament either to the absence of a honeymoon bounce, or the particular pollster’s tendency towards constancy in its results. The poll is from Essential Research and is the normal fortnightly rolling average, which it to say half of it was conducted over the weekend of the election itself. It has the Coalition on 44% (45.6% at the election on current figures), Labor on 36% (33.6%) and the Greens (9%). The published 53-47 two-party preferred (the current election result being 53.4-46.6) is weaker for Labor than the primary vote shifts suggest it should be, which may be because they are still using preference allocations from 2010.
Further questions finding 38% thinking the election of micro-parties to the Senate “good for democracy” against 25% for bad, although I’d like to see more specific questions in relation to this topic. Forty-four per cent believe the lack of a Coalition Senate majority will make for benefit against 30% for worse. Respondents were asked about various aspects they might expect to get better or worse under the new government, including the surprising finding that cost of living and interest rates are expected to be worse. Other questions relate to the country’s economic outlook, all of which you can see here.
[“Hockey” and “wisely” rarely appear in the same sentence.]
Only if there is a negative term in there somewhere as well.
I remember years ago working with an extremely competent woman who was passed over for promotion by an obviously inferior male colleague.
When I tried to sympathise with her about is, her response was, “Oh, he works very hard. He comes into school on the weekends to mow the lawns.”
You really already get the impression that this new Government is more concerned with the shiny duco and leather seats rather than the clapped out engine under the bonnet.
Asha
[On the balance of power, the Greens are only “irrelevant” if Abbott’s able to negotiate legislation through the new crossbench. If he’s unable to get the numbers for any given bill, then guess who he’s going to have to turn to?]
Using Centre’s “logic”, Labor are also irrelevant.
Stuart Robert was the one being chipped in public by Credlin a few days before the election.
Diogs,
Negotiating with all those Indies will be like herding cats.
Too bad the Libs were such arseholes in Opposition. It is unlikely there will be any love from labor at all.
Psephos
[By the way, who noticed that Stone got nothing?]
You’ll notice Bernardi also got nothing. Abbott’s choices were very risk averse.
[Stuart Robert was the one being chipped in public by Credlin a few days before the election.]
I didn’t see that. What was his offence?
[You’ll notice Bernardi also got nothing.]
I believe he will head up the Office of the Special Inquisitor, to be announced later.
[What was his offence?]
Something to do with a tie from memory.
GG
[Negotiating with all those Indies will be like herding cats.
Too bad the Libs were such arseholes in Opposition. It is unlikely there will be any love from labor at all.]
We still don’t know who will get in, which I find pretty ridiculous.
Palmer has come under pretty serious fire from a few conservatives. He doesn’t come across as someone who will forgive and forget easily. He could be a serious pain in the arse to everyone.
Knock! Knock!
Who’s there?
Women!
Women who?
Women who want to get into a Liberal Government Cabinet!
Fuck off!
Mick 77 re The Greens
________
So when do candidates have to be religious to be genuine
You despise the Greens for several reasons…the main one is that their policy on justice for the Palestinians, conflicts with you zionist sympthies…and you see such justice as a bad thing for Apartheid Israel
Digs,
I’d expect Clive to continue in the same vein of love and understanding we have all come to expect.
1861
The wait for the results is mainly the wait for postal votes and its creation of a lack of urgency in the counting.
Palmer has loose cannon written all over him. The effect on the Coalition should be fun to watch.
This shows Credlin blowing up at Robert. She actually wags her finger at him. I can’t remember anyone doing that to me since I was a kid.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRTwzc7f7us
Hmmm, just looking at Mayo, that’s not a bad third party vote. I reckon if you got a decent independent or third party up there, you might be able to give Briggs a scare.
If Labor Party is so set on keeping women in politics, why did they chuck Julia Gillard out?
[The wait for the results is mainly the wait for postal votes and its creation of a lack of urgency in the counting.]
Where are the friggin postal votes coming from?
How many Australian people live somewhere in the world where the post takes more than a week to reach Australia?
The publicity today means that Julie Bishop cannot be sacked regardless of how incompetent she proves to be.
GG. your wisdom when it does come astounds.
Diogs,
There are these big red mailboxes in the rest of Australia.
You need to get out more.
[If Labor Party is so set on keeping women in politics, why did they chuck Julia Gillard out?]
Do you think women should be put in positions of power, regardless of how they perform and kept there because they are women? That’s very tokenistic of you.
Gillard was removed because the party decided it could not win re-election under her. See, despite the rhetoric about ALP women getting promotions because of their gender, a leader doesn’t survive if they are as popular as dirt.
1868
I think you will find that the deadline for postals is from a time of slower mail and that is had just not been changed. The politicians have not been very willing to tighten up rules on postal voting.
[How many Australian people live somewhere in the world where the post takes more than a week to reach Australia?]
I think the 13 days exists as a safe buffer to account for any delay that might happen. Better to make the cut off too late than too early…
Geofrey,
Next thing I know, you’ll be calling me Yodel.
[How many Australian people live somewhere in the world where the post takes more than a week to reach Australia?]
My last birthday (or xmas), it took nearly 2 weeks for a parcel to arrive here from Sydney.
1869
Not by Abbott, at least not without a major reshuffle introducing more women. So she is less of a position to be scapegoat for the collapse in the relationship with Indonesia.
Carey Moore says,
“Do you think women should be put in positions of power, regardless of how they perform and kept there because they are women? That’s very tokenistic of you”
I’m not. Just pointing out that Prime Minister Abbott has done exactly what you said. So what’s the issue with his ministry?
[
There are these big red mailboxes in the rest of Australia.]
The longest time Australia quotes for mail to go from anywhere in Australia to a city is three working days, ie this time delay is BS.
http://auspost.com.au/about-us/mail-services.html
The school teachers union is planning mass rallies and protests here this week to protest against the Barnett cuts to education.
[The longest time Australia quotes for mail to go from anywhere in Australia to a city is three working days, ie this time delay is BS.]
What if I am in Burkina Faso?
prettyone,
The issue is you think 1 out 20 women in Cabinet is satisfactory.
There is differnece between Opposition and Government. Decisions and judgements are important.
Good luck rationalising your position.
If ALP were deadset keen on promoting women, they would not have thrown out the first woman PM. They would have given her a chance to go to election.
The need for power has overtaken their principles, perhaps.
GG
not that is my designation i thought
my motto: i think therefore survive
fess
Parcel times are different to letter times.
gg we live in uncertain times. its each man (and woman) to their vision
Psephos,
You caught the wrong train at Flinders Street.
Dio:
Yeah, I just realised that. 😳
[You caught the wrong train at Flinders Street.]
I meant to get out at Bujumbura.
prettyone, so Liberal female politicians have underperformed so significantly that half our population are represented in one woman in cabinet?
Mark Simpkin refers to Abbott’s ministry as jobs for the boys.
GG is right: JBishop is welded into Cabinet, regardless of her ability.
[
What if I am in Burkina Faso?]
The number of people living in places like Burkina Faso is negligible. The AEC could count 99.9% of the votes by the end of last week. The remaining 0.1% from places like that can be added in the next week but the vast majority should have been counted by now.
[If ALP were deadset keen on promoting women, they would not have thrown out the first woman PM. They would have given her a chance to go to election.]
“Sexism doesn’t explain everything, it explains some things” – Gillard after being knifed by her party
“prettyone, so Liberal female politicians have underperformed so significantly that half our population are represented in one woman in cabinet?”
This is about ALP principles. They have chucked out the first woman PM – just like that – gone. She is now officially a non-ALP person, it seems to me.
In the light of that, Mr Bowen’s criticisms are downright silly.
1881
Postal votes can be sent out from the close of ATL preference ticket lodging. That is 3 weeks before the election. Should we really be allowing 5 weeks for postal votes to be sent, used and received?
[I’m not. Just pointing out that Prime Minister Abbott has done exactly what you said. So what’s the issue with his ministry?]
No, you’re arguing a false equivalence.
In 2013, there is no excuse to have only ONE woman in cabinet. None whatsoever.
And don’t give me that “merit” crap either. There are plenty of meritorious women who were looked over (Abbott himself admitted as much). Forgiveable if it weren’t for a lot of the duds who did make it in (try and convince me Dutton got in on merit.) Also, nobody for a second believes that any cabinet, ever, is constructed solely on the virtues of merit.
It’s a bad start for Abbott, end of story. The fact that the news is spinning it as such and Abbott’s forced to tread lightly demonstrates what an error it is. He can’t backtrack now (and, frankly, public opinion is least important right now) but if, after 9-12 months, it’s still a bad look for him, expect a more female friendly reshuffle.
LNP troll quality is deteriorating.
Headline in The West:
[One woman in Abbott’s boys club]
All that effort Abbott went to holding hands with his daughters, dragging his wife around everywhere, growing his hair longer, wearing blue ties and putting the budgies away is practically undone!
prettyone
You are reaching Sean Tisme level of stupidity with your 1894