The other half of my review of electorate results of interest, with numbers and swings cited for the sake of consistency on the basis of “ordinary” polling booth votes.
Victoria
% Swing Projection Coalition 42.6 +3.1 42.7 Labor 35.3 -8.2 34.6 Greens 10.5 -1.7 10.9 Palmer United 3.7 Others 7.9 Two-party preferred Coalition 49.7 +5.4 50.1 Labor 50.3 -5.4 49.9
Bendigo. A 7.9% swing following the retirement of sitting member Steve Gibbons returned Bendigo to a marginal zone from which it had emerged with successive strong swings to Labor in 2007 and 2010.
Bruce. Alan Griffin’s eastern Melbourne seat is now marginal after a swing to the Liberals of 6.2% cut deep into his existing 7.7% margin.
Corangamite. Darren Cheeseman’s two-term hold on Corangamite was ended by a swing well in line with the statewide average, hitting him 8.0% on the primary vote and 4.4% on two-party preferred.
Gellibrand. It appears Nicola Roxon was well liked by her constituents, as the Labor primary vote in Gellibrand fell 12.6% upon her retirement, the second highest drop in the primary vote for Labor in Victoria. That translated into an ultimately harmless 7.6% swing on two-party preferred.
Indi. Support for Cathy McGowan has been slightly stronger in Wangaratta and Wodonga, which both broke about 54-46 her way, than in the rural centres, which were collectively at about 50-50.
Jagajaga. Jenny Macklin copped Labor’s second highest two-party swing in Melbourne, reducing her 11.1% margin by 8.3%.
La Trobe. Jason Wood returns to parliament after easily accounting for Labor member Laura Smyth’s 1.7% margin with a 5.8% swing, which was well in line with the Melbourne average.
Lalor. The loss of Julia Gillard was keenly felt in Lalor, an 18.6% drop in the primary vote being Labor’s worst in Victoria. Much of it spread across a crowded field of minor contenders, whose preferences limited the two-party swing to 10.0%.
Mallee. The Nationals comfortably retained a seat they might have feared losing to the Liberals with the retirement of veteran member John Forrest. Their candidate Andrew Broad had 39.5% of the ordinary vote to 27.0% for Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, and on present counting holds a lead of 9.9% after preferences. The only ordinary polling booths won by Crewther were the six in Mildura and the two in Stawell.
McEwen. The swing that is imperilling Rob Mitchell was notably fuelled by swings of around 12% in the Sunbury and Craigieburn booths, which were newly added to the electorate. Swings elsewhere were substantial, but generally well below the 9.2% margin.
McMillan. Russell Broadbent picked up an 8.0% swing, part of what looks an ongoing trend away from Labor in West Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley.
Melbourne. The Liberal preference switch bit deep into the Greens’ two-party preferred vote, with Adam Bandt’s overall preference share shriking from 77.2% in 2010 to 40.4%. Had that applied on the 2010 numbers, Bandt would have fallen 3.4% short. On that basis, the current 4.9% margin after preferences can be seen as an 8.3% swing, although Bandt’s margin has in fact been reduced by 1.0%. Bandt picked up 7.2% on the primary vote amid a crowded field, for which Labor made way by dropping 10.9%.
Western Australia
% Swing Projection Coalition 51.1 0.4 51.0 Labor 29.1 -2.5 28.7 Greens 9.6 -3.2 10.0 Palmer United 5.4 Others 4.8 Two-party preferred Coalition 57.1 +0.9 57.3 Labor 42.9 -0.9 42.7
Brand. Gary Gray held firm amid a status quo result for Labor in WA, his margin of 3.3% more than enough buffer for a 1.1% swing. Both Labor and Liberal were down fractionally on the primary vote, the big movers being the Greens, down more than half to 7.1%, and the Palmer United Party on 7.4%.
Canning. Canning was one of only two mainland seats to record a double-digit two-party swings against Labor, the other being Lalor. This is clearly a correction after Alannah MacTiernan outperformed the state result by 5% when she ran in 2010. This time the Labor vote was down 14.8%, with Liberal member Don Randall up 6.4%.
Durack. It was a disappointing election for the WA Nationals, who among other things were unable to snare the northern regional seat of Durack which had been vacated by retiring Liberal member Barry Haase. The party’s candidate Shane van Styn was outpolled by Liberal candidate Melissa Price 37.8% to 23.6% on the primary vote, and has on current indications fallen 4.2% short after receiving 57.4% of preferences. In this he was inhibited by Labor’s decision to put the Nationals last, which the experience of O’Connor suggests cut the overall Nationals preference share by about 10%. That being so, the Labor preference decision would have exactly accounted for the final margin.
Hasluck. Amid what was only a slight statewide swing off a high base, Liberal sophomore Ken Wyatt landed a handy 4.3% buffer to what had been a precarious 0.6% margin.
O’Connor. Tony Crook’s retirement combined with Labor’s preference decision ended the toehold the WA Nationals gained in the House of Representatives, the election of Crook having ended a drought going back to 1974. The primary votes were not greatly changed on 2010, when Crook was outpolled by Wilson Tuckey 38.4% to 28.8% on the primary vote before emerging 3.6% ahead after preferences. The biggest changes were that the Nationals were down 3.3% to 25.6% and the Palmer United Party scored 4.4%. The decisive factor was a drop in the Nationals’ share of preferences from 75.3% to 66.0%, landing Nationals candidate Chub Witham 1.0% short of Liberal candidate Rick Wilson.
South Australia
% Swing Projection Coalition 44.8 +4.8 45.1 Labor 36.2 -5.1 35.6 Greens 8.0 -3.8 8.2 Palmer United 3.8 Others 7.2 Two-party preferred Coalition 52.2 +5.7 52.6 Labor 47.8 -5.7 47.4
Boothby. The run of five successive swings against Andrew Southcott at elections going back to 1996 came to an emphatic end as Labor directed its resources elsewhere. Southcott was up 5.9% on the primary vote and 7.3% on two-party preferred.
Hindmarsh. The South Australian swing hit Labor hardest where they needed it least, an 8.2% swing handily accounting for Steve Georganas’s 6.1% margin in the most marginal of their six seats. Labor’s fortunes in Hindmarsh have changed since Georganas won it for them at the 2004 election, at which time Kingston, Makin and Wakefield were Liberal seats on respective margins of 0.1%, 0.9% and 0.7%. Those seats have stayed with Labor since falling to them in 2007, currently being held by respective margins of 9.7%, 5.4% and 3.1%.
Wakefield. After talk that Nick Champion might be troubled as a result of job cuts at Holden’s Elizabeth plant, he retained a 3.1% margin in the face of a 7.1% swing, which was slightly higher than the statewide result of 5.8%.
Tasmania
% Swing Projection Coalition 40.2 +6.9 40.5 Labor 35.1 -9.3 34.7 Greens 8.1 -8.5 8.3 Palmer United 6.2 Others 10.4 Two-party preferred Coalition 51.6 +9.4 51.2 Labor 48.4 -9.4 48.8
Bass and Braddon moved very closely in tandem, with two-party swings of 10.9% and 10.3% that were both driven by Labor primary vote collapses at around the double-digit mark, and increases in the Liberal vote of around 8%. Lyons fell with a bigger swing off a lower base, the margin of 12.3% accounted for by a 14.0% swing with primary votes shifts well into double digits for both parties. However, it was a different story in the south of the state, with Julie Collins holding on to a 4.9% margin in Franklin after a relatively benign 5.9% swing. In Denison, Andrew Wilkie’s vote was up from 21.3% to 38.3%, with Labor (down 10.8% to 24.5%) and the Greens (down 11.3% to 7.7%) making way. The Liberals held steady, but nonetheless remained slightly below Labor and sure to remain in third place after distribution of Greens preferences.
Australian Capital Territory
% Swing Projection Coalition 34.5 -0.1 34.7 Labor 43.4 -2.1 42.9 Greens 13.0 -5.8 13.4 Palmer United 2.8 Others 6.3 Two-party preferred Coalition 40.0 +1.9 40.2 Labor 60.0 -1.9 59.8
With only a subdued swing against Labor, the outstanding feature of the result appears to be a slump in the Greens vote, down 6.0% in Canberra and 5.8% in Fraser. However, this can largely be put down to greater competition for the minor party vote. The 2010 election saw only three candidates nominate in Canberra and four in Fraser (the Secular Party together with the usual three), but this time there were six and eight seats respectively. A clearer picture is presented by the Senate, where the Greens vote was down 4.1% to 18.8% despite the high-profile candidacy of Simon Sheikh, while Labor fell 6.0% to 34.8%. Both major parties were just clear of a quota.
dovif
No you are wrong. Like most LNP you think you just have to scrap the tax.
Reality is to do that you have to repeal. In the repeal process there are committees and continually it is going to come up what is the alternative.
Direct Action will not cut it. So all Labor and the Greens need to do is get those that want action on climate change to vote no.
I am not saying Labor and Greens will win that argument I am saying its going to be much much more messy and no foregone conclusion as many are assuming.
blackburnpseph
[The Libs and Nats won Narracan and Morwell from Labor at state level in 2006.]
Er, yes. But let’s have a bit of reality here — I was told in the lead up to the 1999 campaign that Labor had never won Narracan and never would.
So losing a seat you’d only ever held for six years of its existence can’t be taken as evidence of terminal decline.
Zoomster….I accept that SM was not the main factor in success of CM’s Indi campaign..
However Cathy herself said that she used SM to communicate with her supporters & set up her support networks. Also I understand she got >$100,000 donations via FB…
Is that correct?
“It is interesting to see how fast the Labor decline has been. The Libs and Nats won Narracan and Morwell from Labor at state level in 2006. Morwell had been Labor since 1967. Now both seats have big coalition majorities. Russell Braodbent only won McMillan back in 2004 – now it is a safe seat.”
The Bathurst/Lithgow area was ALP State and Federally in 2007 by big margins. Now it is the other way by even bigger margins……
Can you explain what could possibly happen that might imperil ‘the stability of the new government’?
Re Mandate. The real test of a mandate is if you have the support of the parliament. It is the Parliament that represents the people of Australia not the government or its perceived ill considered policies. If they have the numbers on the floor of both houses then yes they has a mandate. Ain’t got the numbers hold a double dissolution then a joint sitting if need be.
[It is interesting to see how fast the Labor decline has been.]
Also Labor threw Morwell away by picking awful candidates such as that nong Jenkins.
Dovif
One example. Expect demonstrations outside Parliament that will dwarf Alan Jones efforts against the “tax”
Abbott has made a rod for his own back
guytaur
Actually all I have done is listen to what the independent senator or their parties had said
X said before the election, he is open to repealing the carbon tax if Abbott wins
Madigan say before the election, he is open to repealing the carbon tax
Palmer has said he wants the carbon tax repealed and be refunded the carbon tax his companies had paid
If you read the LDP website, they say they stand for lower taxes and the carbon tax is a tax
I believe FF will not stand in the way of repealing the carbon tax.
If you want to think different, please provide some evidence
Saying PUP won’t repeal the carbon tax, when it is contrary to everything Palmer have said in public, not only make you wrong, it makes u look stupid
guytaur
Brumby started to set up Country Labor in Victoria. Got as far as a name change for our policy committee, which became the Country Labor Executive. Bracks was nervous that to proceed further down that path would effectively create another faction, so that’s where it stopped.
Brumby met with us after the 1999 election to personally congratulate us on our work and said that the policies generated from the committee had gone a long way to winning seats in the country.
Ironically, because the process didn’t go the whole way, the relevant rule changes weren’t made. A few years ago, some smart a#se in Admin picked this up and decided that the Country Labor Executive didn’t exist legally.
No one bothered to tell us – we simply found ourselves being excluded from discussions, left off agendas, etc etc. For about two years – whilst we desperately tried to figure out what was going on – country Labor effectively had no voice in the Victorian ALP.
Once we worked it out, we realised that if we were going for rule changes to put us back into existence, we might as well make sure the rules were to our advantage. So we are now the only policy committee which is elected directly by ordinary branch members, through an automatic postal vote. We also defined our constituency – only branch members who belong to certain electorates (defined as ‘rural and regional’ get a vote.
she has to go for the stability of the new government.
Comment based on your own prejudices, ethics and moral compass? and not those of the GG?
Mandate;
“Dr Nelson is right to resist the intellectual bullying inherent in talk of ‘mandates’.”: Tony Abbott, 2007.
Abbott still being hypocritical
dovif
After the election Senator X made different statements.
No matter how you spin it the truth is Abbott has a tough job getting it through.
It is possible there will be the three no votes blocking Abbott’s attempt at repeal. More than just things going pear shaped in the horse trading stage.
Voting against climate change in the heat of the national spotlight is far different to making some statements before an election.
It is delicious to think that Barrie Cassidy’s innocent question, “Who will you miss the least?” to Tony Windsor on Insiders sealed Sophie’s fate.
compare and contrast
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/abbott-policies-anger-indonesia-20130912-2tnun.html
a fairly clear case – with direct quotes – that Indonesia flatly rejects abbott’s impractical ‘solutions’. Abbott has already trashed regional co-operation that is needed to stop the flow of people on boats through regional processing centres.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/indonesias-challenge-for-libs-over-boats-and-cattle/story-fn59nm2j-1226718082783
no direct quotes. Indonesia is only ‘reluctant’. does pick up barnaby being a dickhead though.
Australia to become an international pariah (as we were in the howard era of non-ratification of kyoto and post-Tampa – ask anyone who lived in the EU at the time how popular Australians were) – but western sydney, queensland and the LNP will be fine with that.
I really hope labor pick a leader who’ll get rid of focus-group policy making and the NSW right advisers. How I wish Greg Combet was still in parliament. I think they need a stint of albo – who, much as I like him, will not be popular/electable, but could keep the team together and put an alternative to abbott pretty effectively; followed by Shorten. Much as I have reservations about him, I think he will be popular – he has a touch of the Bill Clinton’s about him and good people skills.
Abbott is still going to be hard to take down now he had incumbency – he can afford to be Mr Nice Guy for a while, which will make people who are deeply reserved about him decide he’s OK after all.
I think abbott will be the opposite of Rudd or Obama who came into office with high expectations. Abbott comes in a protest votes against labors internal machinations and the fact the Rudd was so clearly a fake and a prick. People have low expectations of abbott – most lib voters I know qualify discussions with “I don’t like abbott, but…..”. He’ll rise in popularity for a while (cheered by the murdoch media) – I think labor should lay off attack dog tactics for a bit – making it clear that they know people are sick of oppositions that oppose for opposition’s sake, and let abbott and his team of hicks fuck up – they’re off to a good start on Indonesia.
Doesn’t Mrs Abbott run a childcare centre? Will refusing the wage rises of childcare workers help the Abbott family income stream? Isn’t this a conflict of interest?
Far more so than the GG- Shorten relationship where the GG doesn’t have any real power to effect legislation.
markjs
I suppose my response would be that we did exactly the same! (just not as successfully).
Any modern campaign uses emails, facebook and twitter to communicate with their supporters. Nothing remarkable in that. And it’s also the way potential donors find you (and thanks for those pollbludgers who sent money our way!)
McGowan’s campaign had a fairly constant meme going that they were being ignored by the msm. This simply wasn’t true. Indeed, they got very favourable treatment from ‘The Border Mail’ for example (which treated Mirabella neutrally and were generally antagonistic towards the Labor party – I pointed out a number of mistruths in their reporting which were never corrected).
Interestingly, the ABC gave the ALP candidate very little air time (I probably did more interviews in the period when we didn’t have a candidate).
While I’m on it, the number of candidates also made it a very different campaign to the past. Although every campaign has seen at least one candidate forum (SM didn’t even bother to turn up to the only one held in 2007) they haven’t been a feature of past campaigns, and they haven’t had much coverage when they have been held.
This campaign, they were a huge feature, and another factor which helped raised McGowan’s profile.
Off topic, but an interesting take on the world of work: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/the-modern-phenomenon-of-nonsense-jobs-20130831-2sy3j.html
Other than possibly Senator X, who has made confusing statements on carbon, it’s hard to see another two blocking senators. Politicians always find ways to justify their positions regardless of committees and evidence. “Carbon tax is bad” has been drilled into them by the media, the former opposition and their constituents. They won’t change their minds just because it makes good policy sense to.
guytaur
I am not the one saying PUP won’t support carbon tax repeal
LOL @ spin the truth
Oh dear… Bill Shorten just endorsed for Labor leadership by John Roskam of the IPA.
Does this tell you anything?
anyone but shorten
shorten instigated labor’s demise and now wants to bury the party. careering first, all else second
cousin of nsw robertson
hope today is not RIP labor because next election there is a chance
triton
For reasons I outlined above I disagree. We will see in July next year. By that time the issue will have heated up big time as one block will have happened if Abbott does as he is saying and puts it upon day one of parliament.
geoffrey@172
An online poll showed 17% favouring Shorten vs 47% for Albo and 36% favouring Plibersek.
Seems about right to me. Shorten a distant 3rd.
Roskam is one of the last endorsements any Labor leadership candidate would want.
triton@176
Well he is good friends with Shorten and Shorten was best man at his wedding.
dovif
You obviously don’t follow the news.
Unlike the certainty of the LNP all along I have said may. Not will. Big difference.
As I said your assumption its foregone is wrong.
Many a slip twixt cup and lip
thanks bemused. that is what i thought – and a members poll would not favor shorten – is there is no other candidate it will because of internal non transparent lobbying once again …
has anyone explained convincingly why rudd is not continuing?
I’m sure Albo has it parceled up if he decides to run. I really like Plibersek and she’s (was) an excellent and popular minister, but I’m not convinced she’d make a good leader.
Rudd is not continuing because he has had his chance at leadership and lost. There is no hope of another Rudd PMship. Rudd’s only potential future role is as member for Griffith. He will never be leader again.
bemused, I had no idea. In that case the endorsement doesn’t necessarily mean anything politically. It’s just someone backing a friend.
[has anyone explained convincingly why rudd is not continuing?]
…because he’d rather resign than have caucus roll him a second time…
triton@176
Put another way…
Aesop’s Moral:
A man is known by the company he keeps.
Is there any chance of an LNP Senate floor-crosser on carbon? That could make it interesting if Abbott gets his six cross-benchers.
triton@182
You need to check out some of his other friendships and links. You may discern a pattern.
I think the signs on leadership are that Albomentum is on if he nominates.
I suspect Shorten is hoping for no nomination from Albo. Happy for their to be a ballot. Rules people will be busy if that happens.
If Albo does not nominate it means that Shorten will deservedly be leader.
jackol and zoomster
once again not sure that is how public see it
no great anti rudd feeling out there (unlike first responses to shorten
this is one crazy party if they give the baton at last minute to a leader, expect miracles, do not compliment good work done, and then look around – one crazy party.
unless this is all the game plan of one man
rudd should have stayed on (his fault) and been up to vote with members of several candidates
The writing was on the wall in the Latrobe Valley all those many years ago when with the SEC is it “Slow, Easy and Comfortable’. Those attitude died with the hard times.
With Hazelwood being one of the dirtiest power stations ever, pumping out brown gunk, not to mention the noxious stuff from Maryvale when the wind blows from the East, the area voted Labor because it was to do with jobs.
The jobs, like Yallourn, are all gone as it the Labor vote.
Those Central Gippsland seats have returned to their rural fold and are unlikely ever to come back as some have mentioned here.
Tomorrow is the 14th. If Gillard had remained leader we would still have a Labor government.
ST @148 Quite clearly there is a conflict of interest there and she has to go for the stability of the new government.
You want everything don’t you. The term of Quentin Bryce was extended to March 2014 with bipartisan support earlier this year to avoid any clash with this year’s election. Tony Abbott is most unlikely to appoint her for a second term, even if she wanted one. No doubt he’ll appoint some high Tory to the role and all will be safe.
So any perceived term of interest is a non-issue. In the very unlikely event that such a conflict should arise in the first few months of Abbott’s term as PM, the Governor General can stand aside and allow the senior State Governor to act in her place until the conflict is resolved.
On the other hand, aren’t you concerned that Julie Bishop apparently lied when she told us she had some secret deal with the Indonesians regarding asylum seekers. Not a good look for a new Foreign Minister.
Anyone notice the masthead on the Sydney Morning Herald:
“The Sydney Morning Herald – Independent Always”.
Clearly trying to differentiate itself from the Murdoch Press.
The public have moved on from Kevin Rudd.
So should you.
That saying would make a great motto for the LNP of today
[Many a slip twixt cup and lip]
Maybe someone can think of a more appropriate one.
triton@191
And been confronting imminent oblivion.
Seems a popular choice with some here. 🙁
[Anyone notice the masthead on the Sydney Morning Herald:
“The Sydney Morning Herald – Independent Always”.]
The Age has done the same. I too it as a warning to Gina Rhinocerous, who owns 15% of Fairfax.
Jackol
Posted Friday, September 13, 2013 at 10:34 am | PERMALINK
once again not sure that is how public see it
The public have moved on from Kevin Rudd.
So should you.
—thanks but i regard lots of advice here with grain of salt. i think party should be consistent and use it talents – including gillard. ‘move on’ is a lame populist/management term. any party without magnanimous organisational memory has no future. i happen to think rudd is best choice at present.
if shorten gets wheel just watch public move on past party
Tomorrow is also Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. And we have much to aTONE for. Through our infighting we have allowed the rule of TONE. We should spend tomorrow reflecting on how we can do better this term. (And watching the football.)
The revelations came as the third boat to arrive since the Abbott Government was elected was intercepted north of Christmas Island.
Abbott abandons his ‘stop the boats’ promise
Thursday, 11 April 2013
Tony Abbott is abandoning his promise to ‘stop the boats’, refusing to say if a Coalition Government would be able to fulfil their commitment.
Mr Abbott has previously said he would stop the boats within months. Yesterday he ran away from that commitment, saying he would only be able to ‘make a difference’ in the first term, should the Coalition be elected to government.
He refused to say when, or if, he would stop the boats.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/indonesia-to-block-tony-abbott8217s-dob-a-people-smuggler-plan/story-fnho52ip-1226718145277#ixzz2ejFqy1Za