Call of the board: part two

A quick run-through election results of interests from seats in the AFL states plus the Australian Capital Territory (the rest having been dealt with yesterday).

The other half of my review of electorate results of interest, with numbers and swings cited for the sake of consistency on the basis of “ordinary” polling booth votes.

Victoria

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	42.6	+3.1	42.7	
Labor		35.3	-8.2	34.6		
Greens		10.5	-1.7	10.9
Palmer United	3.7
Others		7.9

Two-party preferred

Coalition	49.7	+5.4	50.1
Labor		50.3	-5.4	49.9

Bendigo. A 7.9% swing following the retirement of sitting member Steve Gibbons returned Bendigo to a marginal zone from which it had emerged with successive strong swings to Labor in 2007 and 2010.

Bruce. Alan Griffin’s eastern Melbourne seat is now marginal after a swing to the Liberals of 6.2% cut deep into his existing 7.7% margin.

Corangamite. Darren Cheeseman’s two-term hold on Corangamite was ended by a swing well in line with the statewide average, hitting him 8.0% on the primary vote and 4.4% on two-party preferred.

Gellibrand. It appears Nicola Roxon was well liked by her constituents, as the Labor primary vote in Gellibrand fell 12.6% upon her retirement, the second highest drop in the primary vote for Labor in Victoria. That translated into an ultimately harmless 7.6% swing on two-party preferred.

Indi. Support for Cathy McGowan has been slightly stronger in Wangaratta and Wodonga, which both broke about 54-46 her way, than in the rural centres, which were collectively at about 50-50.

Jagajaga. Jenny Macklin copped Labor’s second highest two-party swing in Melbourne, reducing her 11.1% margin by 8.3%.

La Trobe. Jason Wood returns to parliament after easily accounting for Labor member Laura Smyth’s 1.7% margin with a 5.8% swing, which was well in line with the Melbourne average.

Lalor. The loss of Julia Gillard was keenly felt in Lalor, an 18.6% drop in the primary vote being Labor’s worst in Victoria. Much of it spread across a crowded field of minor contenders, whose preferences limited the two-party swing to 10.0%.

Mallee. The Nationals comfortably retained a seat they might have feared losing to the Liberals with the retirement of veteran member John Forrest. Their candidate Andrew Broad had 39.5% of the ordinary vote to 27.0% for Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, and on present counting holds a lead of 9.9% after preferences. The only ordinary polling booths won by Crewther were the six in Mildura and the two in Stawell.

McEwen. The swing that is imperilling Rob Mitchell was notably fuelled by swings of around 12% in the Sunbury and Craigieburn booths, which were newly added to the electorate. Swings elsewhere were substantial, but generally well below the 9.2% margin.

McMillan. Russell Broadbent picked up an 8.0% swing, part of what looks an ongoing trend away from Labor in West Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley.

Melbourne. The Liberal preference switch bit deep into the Greens’ two-party preferred vote, with Adam Bandt’s overall preference share shriking from 77.2% in 2010 to 40.4%. Had that applied on the 2010 numbers, Bandt would have fallen 3.4% short. On that basis, the current 4.9% margin after preferences can be seen as an 8.3% swing, although Bandt’s margin has in fact been reduced by 1.0%. Bandt picked up 7.2% on the primary vote amid a crowded field, for which Labor made way by dropping 10.9%.

Western Australia

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	51.1	0.4	51.0
Labor		29.1	-2.5	28.7		
Greens		9.6	-3.2	10.0
Palmer United	5.4
Others		4.8

Two-party preferred

Coalition	57.1	+0.9	57.3
Labor		42.9	-0.9	42.7

Brand. Gary Gray held firm amid a status quo result for Labor in WA, his margin of 3.3% more than enough buffer for a 1.1% swing. Both Labor and Liberal were down fractionally on the primary vote, the big movers being the Greens, down more than half to 7.1%, and the Palmer United Party on 7.4%.

Canning. Canning was one of only two mainland seats to record a double-digit two-party swings against Labor, the other being Lalor. This is clearly a correction after Alannah MacTiernan outperformed the state result by 5% when she ran in 2010. This time the Labor vote was down 14.8%, with Liberal member Don Randall up 6.4%.

Durack. It was a disappointing election for the WA Nationals, who among other things were unable to snare the northern regional seat of Durack which had been vacated by retiring Liberal member Barry Haase. The party’s candidate Shane van Styn was outpolled by Liberal candidate Melissa Price 37.8% to 23.6% on the primary vote, and has on current indications fallen 4.2% short after receiving 57.4% of preferences. In this he was inhibited by Labor’s decision to put the Nationals last, which the experience of O’Connor suggests cut the overall Nationals preference share by about 10%. That being so, the Labor preference decision would have exactly accounted for the final margin.

Hasluck. Amid what was only a slight statewide swing off a high base, Liberal sophomore Ken Wyatt landed a handy 4.3% buffer to what had been a precarious 0.6% margin.

O’Connor. Tony Crook’s retirement combined with Labor’s preference decision ended the toehold the WA Nationals gained in the House of Representatives, the election of Crook having ended a drought going back to 1974. The primary votes were not greatly changed on 2010, when Crook was outpolled by Wilson Tuckey 38.4% to 28.8% on the primary vote before emerging 3.6% ahead after preferences. The biggest changes were that the Nationals were down 3.3% to 25.6% and the Palmer United Party scored 4.4%. The decisive factor was a drop in the Nationals’ share of preferences from 75.3% to 66.0%, landing Nationals candidate Chub Witham 1.0% short of Liberal candidate Rick Wilson.

South Australia

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	44.8	+4.8	45.1
Labor		36.2	-5.1	35.6		
Greens		8.0	-3.8	8.2
Palmer United	3.8
Others		7.2

Two-party preferred

Coalition	52.2	+5.7	52.6
Labor		47.8	-5.7	47.4

Boothby. The run of five successive swings against Andrew Southcott at elections going back to 1996 came to an emphatic end as Labor directed its resources elsewhere. Southcott was up 5.9% on the primary vote and 7.3% on two-party preferred.

Hindmarsh. The South Australian swing hit Labor hardest where they needed it least, an 8.2% swing handily accounting for Steve Georganas’s 6.1% margin in the most marginal of their six seats. Labor’s fortunes in Hindmarsh have changed since Georganas won it for them at the 2004 election, at which time Kingston, Makin and Wakefield were Liberal seats on respective margins of 0.1%, 0.9% and 0.7%. Those seats have stayed with Labor since falling to them in 2007, currently being held by respective margins of 9.7%, 5.4% and 3.1%.

Wakefield. After talk that Nick Champion might be troubled as a result of job cuts at Holden’s Elizabeth plant, he retained a 3.1% margin in the face of a 7.1% swing, which was slightly higher than the statewide result of 5.8%.

Tasmania

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	40.2	+6.9	40.5
Labor		35.1	-9.3	34.7		
Greens		8.1	-8.5	8.3
Palmer United	6.2
Others		10.4

Two-party preferred

Coalition	51.6	+9.4	51.2
Labor		48.4	-9.4	48.8

Bass and Braddon moved very closely in tandem, with two-party swings of 10.9% and 10.3% that were both driven by Labor primary vote collapses at around the double-digit mark, and increases in the Liberal vote of around 8%. Lyons fell with a bigger swing off a lower base, the margin of 12.3% accounted for by a 14.0% swing with primary votes shifts well into double digits for both parties. However, it was a different story in the south of the state, with Julie Collins holding on to a 4.9% margin in Franklin after a relatively benign 5.9% swing. In Denison, Andrew Wilkie’s vote was up from 21.3% to 38.3%, with Labor (down 10.8% to 24.5%) and the Greens (down 11.3% to 7.7%) making way. The Liberals held steady, but nonetheless remained slightly below Labor and sure to remain in third place after distribution of Greens preferences.

Australian Capital Territory

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	34.5	-0.1	34.7
Labor		43.4	-2.1	42.9		
Greens		13.0	-5.8	13.4
Palmer United	2.8
Others		6.3

Two-party preferred

Coalition	40.0	+1.9	40.2
Labor		60.0	-1.9	59.8

With only a subdued swing against Labor, the outstanding feature of the result appears to be a slump in the Greens vote, down 6.0% in Canberra and 5.8% in Fraser. However, this can largely be put down to greater competition for the minor party vote. The 2010 election saw only three candidates nominate in Canberra and four in Fraser (the Secular Party together with the usual three), but this time there were six and eight seats respectively. A clearer picture is presented by the Senate, where the Greens vote was down 4.1% to 18.8% despite the high-profile candidacy of Simon Sheikh, while Labor fell 6.0% to 34.8%. Both major parties were just clear of a quota.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,051 comments on “Call of the board: part two”

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  1. My Say
    re twitter I have about 1700 followers and seem to be picking up followers each day, so guess must be getting through somewhere

  2. Yes already Abbotts very few policies are falling apart, and as Bowen noted, so called emergencies don’t seem too urgent.

    It’s worth hammering these things early: Abbott is a BS artist at heart, and voters should be enlightened as to exactly how.

  3. triton:

    Cash is indeed ghastly. How hard up are the Liberals for women talent that one could even consider her as front bench material??

  4. triton

    Not only that. It also shows Abbott still does not get it. Two female ministers just looks like the tokenism it is. If you are going to put noses out of joint to put women in cabinet do it properly and make it half and half.

    At the least put os so praised new member “sex appeal” Fiona Scott in.

  5. For decades, Gippsland seats in Victoria favoured Labor, because of the strong union base built up around the SEC operations there.

    A mixture of the privatisation of the electricity companies, and greener ALP policies (not just carbon pricing, which directly impacts on the future employment prospects of the area but issues such as removing cattle from the High Plains as well) means that these seats have drifted away from Labor on both a State and Federal level, and are unlikely to return to the fold without a dramatic rethink.

    Any dramatic rethink, however, would emperil other seats, where the voters are comfortable with the idea of sacrificing jobs in The Valley if it means action on climate change.

    Speaking personally, the best strategy for Labor is probably to cut The Valley lose and target other areas. Unfortunately, TV has built up a substantial block within the party over the years, which will make that difficult.

    (My first attempts to get through policy to wean Victoria away from brown coal, circa 2001, were watered down considerably by TV block…)

  6. zoomster

    To win those Gippsland seat back for Labor I think the solution is simple. Its long term and will take time to take effect. Plus Labor needs to be in government to do it.

    Continue the policies put in place by PMJG. Invest in education and retraining. Invest in new energy projects in the area. Etc

    I agree its going to be a long hard slog

  7. any one remember anway sadat.

    i do my best thinking in the shower lol

    i just yelled out to OH
    my god why did we let our dutch pass ports lapse

    if i was 20 years younger i think that’s where we would go

    funny they fled we may be the next boat people

  8. There’ll be a lot of myths about the McGowan campaign, some of which are being written already.

    The McGowan camp places a lot of emphasis on her campaign treating Mirabella with respect at all times, not attacking her record etc and are hailing this as a ‘new kind of politics’.

    The fact is that they didn’t need to. Other people did the attacking for them, and a large % of McGowan’s vote had nothing to do with her policies or approach but because she was seen as having the best chance of seeing off Mirabella (certainly that was why we ended up preferencing her, despite our misgivings about her National party ties).

    Also, as the focus was on removing Mirabella, McGowan herself faced very little scrutiny. The only real criticism of the campaign was sparked by some comments I initially made on twitter and then in the media, concerning McGowan’s boast that she had no policies. As a result, McGowan very quickly reversed that position!

    The other myth forming has to do with her use of social media. The fact is that her main impact was through the msm, with Windsor’s interview on Insiders putting her on the map to start with.

  9. (pressed ‘send’ too soon…)

    So anyone taking the McGowan campaign as a template for the future needs to be aware of its limitations.

    If Mirabella had been a better MP, she wouldn’t have been so vulnerable. She would have had a record of local delivery and engagement to run on, and would have been able to put McGowan under scrutiny (all Mirabella did was falsely claim others’ achievements as her own and ramble on about conspiracies against her).

    Indi was a perfect storm. Although there are lessons to be learnt from the campaign there, as there always are, the overwhelming one is ‘don’t take your electorate for granted’.

  10. After 36 years Voyager has left the building.

    [The Voyager-1 spacecraft has become the first manmade object to leave the Solar System.

    Scientists say the probe’s instruments indicate it has moved beyond the bubble of hot gas from our Sun and is now moving in the space between the stars.

    Launched in 1977, Voyager was sent initially to study the outer planets, but then just kept on going.

    Today, the veteran Nasa mission is almost 19 billion km (12 billion miles) from home.
    ]
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24026153

  11. We are seeing the priorities of an Abbott Govt.

    Priority is getting stuck into the wages of Childcare & Aged care workers who are also among the 3.7 million low paid workers who will have the superannuation co-contribution removed

    double whammy

    But I feel comforted knowing that Abbott will reduce Gina’s tax “burden”.

  12. The La Trobe Valley is a declining industrial relic and will probably never vote Labor again. McMillan is in any case no longer winnable because half of the Valley is now in Gippsland, where it is outvoted by the rural parts of the seat.

    More generally, this is a trend all over the country. Regional blue-collar centres like Broken Hill, Mt Isa, Port Pirie, Kalgoorlie, Cessnock, Lithgow, Gladstone are steadily drifting away from Labor, and in any case they are declining relative to the surrounding regional areas and no longer dominate their electorates as they used to do.

  13. It would not surprise me if Cathy McGowan picked up votes because it looked like a strong Liberal win nationally. The voters of Indi could ditch Mirabella but still be assured that there would be a majority Coalition government. Think nationally – act locally so to speak.

    The likelihood of another hung parliament and their desire to avoid it may have kept some voters in the coalition camp.

  14. [It’s worth hammering these things early: Abbott is a BS artist at heart, and voters should be enlightened as to exactly how.]

    Yes, establish his credentials early as the Prime Minister who cries wolf…

  15. Psephos

    Bob Carr showed Labor can win in the country. His Country Labor initiative.

    Also remember family farms have been making way for company farms.
    Less votes in a company farm for the LNP.

  16. Can Abbott immediately sack the Governor-General as soon as he is sworn in?

    I feel uncomfortable with Bill Shortens Mummy Dearest being in the highest government post in the land

  17. zoomster:

    Indi looks to have experienced the Wilson Tuckey phenomenon where a long-serving local member is dumped for delivering nothing to their electorate except a bad reputation.

  18. victoria@52

    Today I am reflecting on the sort of people who are now running our country on state and federal levels, and I am feeling somewhat queasy……..

    Vic,

    A lot more of that feeling coming to a lot more people I suspect.

    – Some will be getting what they voted for,
    – Some will not be getting what they thought they were voting for,
    – Some will be getting it because they didn’t think and

    Others will cope it from the tories and they didn’t vote for it. Job losses and other cuts etc.

  19. [Sean

    It aint his mum]

    It’s his step mum… too close imho, especially as he may become leader of the opposition.

    She has to go. Apparently her term ends in March next year but perhaps Abbott can bring it forwards.

  20. Morning.

    guytaur@700

    K17

    Maybe not. Senator X, Pup Senator and Liberal Democrat appear against repeal. If Palmer still unhappy could be two Pup against repeal.

    Others who knows

    Surely coal-mining magnate Palmer wants to repeal the carbon price, or does his new senator disagree with him already?

    ?

    My understanding is that X went to the election saying that if Abbott wins, he is open to repealing the carbon tax, Liberal Democrats ran on the platform of lower taxes and less government, removing the carbon tax is in their policy platform. Palmer not only wants the carbon tax remove, he wants the carbon tax he paid already repaid to him. FF has said yes, as has Madigan. Not sure where you got that info from

  21. [Bob Carr showed Labor can win in the country. His Country Labor initiative.]

    Labor in rural NSW have been declining for decades. They have only won some seats because of specific pockets of Labor votes in some areas – Labor voting Quaenbayen (effectively an extension of Canberra) dominates Monaro. They held Bathurst through a combination of good local MP and Lithgow Labor votes. 30 years ago – Labor held seats like Burrinjuck and Albury – both of which Labor did not come within a cooee of winning during the Carr years.

    The Country Labor thing is just a hollow sham – though of course not to Guytaur.

  22. Obviously the car manufacturers did not donate enough to the Liberal Party.

    Abbott is going to reduce the subsidies to the car industry while continuing to subsidise the mining industry that donated heavily to the Liberals.

    Message to Holden, Ford etc – if you want the subsidies donations to the Liberal Party need to increase

  23. There’s no controlling the New (Social) Media news cycle …forget ’24 hour cycle’ …on SM it’s very old news after 24 minutes!!

    If Abbott & Co try to control SM …they will not get more than ONE term …democracy will not be stopped …even Chinese Govt know that 🙂

    Look what happened with their Internet Filter policy ….announced & spruiked by Turnbull & Fletcher in the morning ….dropped by Abbott like a hot pile of sh*t in the afternoon…

  24. baby sean you are a fool re GG relationship to Bill Shorten, mind you that isn’t surprising you are a fool about 99.99% of the time, being kind to you giving you .01% when not a fool :devil:

  25. [The La Trobe Valley is a declining industrial relic and will probably never vote Labor again.]

    It is interesting to see how fast the Labor decline has been. The Libs and Nats won Narracan and Morwell from Labor at state level in 2006. Morwell had been Labor since 1967. Now both seats have big coalition majorities. Russell Braodbent only won McMillan back in 2004 – now it is a safe seat.

  26. [Message to Holden, Ford etc – if you want the subsidies donations to the Liberal Party need to increase]

    AA – did you miss it? Ford have pulled the plug – all over Red Rover.

  27. Guytaur

    From the statements made by X, Madigan, Palmer, Family First and Liberal Democrats. The Coalition have the 6 extra vote they will need to repeal the carbon tax, the rest is just horse trading

  28. [baby sean you are a fool re GG relationship to Bill Shorten, mind you that isn’t surprising you are a fool about 99.99% of the time, being kind to you giving you .01% when not a fool ]

    The GG is the mother in law of Bill Shorten. This is a fact.

    Bill Shorten may become the Opposition leader of the Labor Party.

    Quite clearly there is a conflict of interest there and she has to go for the stability of the new government.

  29. bbp

    Bob Carr’s Country Labor worked. It might not be up there in flashing lights. Does not mean it failed. Its exactly the point Indi has highlighted. Pay attention to local issues in a real way. The rest follows

    It is as you said a general decline. The point is in the face of that decline Country Labor worked.

  30. The federal bureaucracy has also suspended payments from the $300 million Early Years Quality Fund established by the Gillard government to cover wage increases for childcare workers. The Coalition doesn’t plan to go ahead with the wage subsidies.

    So much for improving productivity. Many women will now not be able to return to work due to a lack of child care

    Abbott will pay (PPL) for you to have them, good luck getting child care when you want to return to work, or should I use Abbott’s term – re-engage.

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