Call of the board: part two

A quick run-through election results of interests from seats in the AFL states plus the Australian Capital Territory (the rest having been dealt with yesterday).

The other half of my review of electorate results of interest, with numbers and swings cited for the sake of consistency on the basis of “ordinary” polling booth votes.


		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	42.6	+3.1	42.7	
Labor		35.3	-8.2	34.6		
Greens		10.5	-1.7	10.9
Palmer United	3.7
Others		7.9

Two-party preferred

Coalition	49.7	+5.4	50.1
Labor		50.3	-5.4	49.9

Bendigo. A 7.9% swing following the retirement of sitting member Steve Gibbons returned Bendigo to a marginal zone from which it had emerged with successive strong swings to Labor in 2007 and 2010.

Bruce. Alan Griffin’s eastern Melbourne seat is now marginal after a swing to the Liberals of 6.2% cut deep into his existing 7.7% margin.

Corangamite. Darren Cheeseman’s two-term hold on Corangamite was ended by a swing well in line with the statewide average, hitting him 8.0% on the primary vote and 4.4% on two-party preferred.

Gellibrand. It appears Nicola Roxon was well liked by her constituents, as the Labor primary vote in Gellibrand fell 12.6% upon her retirement, the second highest drop in the primary vote for Labor in Victoria. That translated into an ultimately harmless 7.6% swing on two-party preferred.

Indi. Support for Cathy McGowan has been slightly stronger in Wangaratta and Wodonga, which both broke about 54-46 her way, than in the rural centres, which were collectively at about 50-50.

Jagajaga. Jenny Macklin copped Labor’s second highest two-party swing in Melbourne, reducing her 11.1% margin by 8.3%.

La Trobe. Jason Wood returns to parliament after easily accounting for Labor member Laura Smyth’s 1.7% margin with a 5.8% swing, which was well in line with the Melbourne average.

Lalor. The loss of Julia Gillard was keenly felt in Lalor, an 18.6% drop in the primary vote being Labor’s worst in Victoria. Much of it spread across a crowded field of minor contenders, whose preferences limited the two-party swing to 10.0%.

Mallee. The Nationals comfortably retained a seat they might have feared losing to the Liberals with the retirement of veteran member John Forrest. Their candidate Andrew Broad had 39.5% of the ordinary vote to 27.0% for Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, and on present counting holds a lead of 9.9% after preferences. The only ordinary polling booths won by Crewther were the six in Mildura and the two in Stawell.

McEwen. The swing that is imperilling Rob Mitchell was notably fuelled by swings of around 12% in the Sunbury and Craigieburn booths, which were newly added to the electorate. Swings elsewhere were substantial, but generally well below the 9.2% margin.

McMillan. Russell Broadbent picked up an 8.0% swing, part of what looks an ongoing trend away from Labor in West Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley.

Melbourne. The Liberal preference switch bit deep into the Greens’ two-party preferred vote, with Adam Bandt’s overall preference share shriking from 77.2% in 2010 to 40.4%. Had that applied on the 2010 numbers, Bandt would have fallen 3.4% short. On that basis, the current 4.9% margin after preferences can be seen as an 8.3% swing, although Bandt’s margin has in fact been reduced by 1.0%. Bandt picked up 7.2% on the primary vote amid a crowded field, for which Labor made way by dropping 10.9%.

Western Australia

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	51.1	0.4	51.0
Labor		29.1	-2.5	28.7		
Greens		9.6	-3.2	10.0
Palmer United	5.4
Others		4.8

Two-party preferred

Coalition	57.1	+0.9	57.3
Labor		42.9	-0.9	42.7

Brand. Gary Gray held firm amid a status quo result for Labor in WA, his margin of 3.3% more than enough buffer for a 1.1% swing. Both Labor and Liberal were down fractionally on the primary vote, the big movers being the Greens, down more than half to 7.1%, and the Palmer United Party on 7.4%.

Canning. Canning was one of only two mainland seats to record a double-digit two-party swings against Labor, the other being Lalor. This is clearly a correction after Alannah MacTiernan outperformed the state result by 5% when she ran in 2010. This time the Labor vote was down 14.8%, with Liberal member Don Randall up 6.4%.

Durack. It was a disappointing election for the WA Nationals, who among other things were unable to snare the northern regional seat of Durack which had been vacated by retiring Liberal member Barry Haase. The party’s candidate Shane van Styn was outpolled by Liberal candidate Melissa Price 37.8% to 23.6% on the primary vote, and has on current indications fallen 4.2% short after receiving 57.4% of preferences. In this he was inhibited by Labor’s decision to put the Nationals last, which the experience of O’Connor suggests cut the overall Nationals preference share by about 10%. That being so, the Labor preference decision would have exactly accounted for the final margin.

Hasluck. Amid what was only a slight statewide swing off a high base, Liberal sophomore Ken Wyatt landed a handy 4.3% buffer to what had been a precarious 0.6% margin.

O’Connor. Tony Crook’s retirement combined with Labor’s preference decision ended the toehold the WA Nationals gained in the House of Representatives, the election of Crook having ended a drought going back to 1974. The primary votes were not greatly changed on 2010, when Crook was outpolled by Wilson Tuckey 38.4% to 28.8% on the primary vote before emerging 3.6% ahead after preferences. The biggest changes were that the Nationals were down 3.3% to 25.6% and the Palmer United Party scored 4.4%. The decisive factor was a drop in the Nationals’ share of preferences from 75.3% to 66.0%, landing Nationals candidate Chub Witham 1.0% short of Liberal candidate Rick Wilson.

South Australia

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	44.8	+4.8	45.1
Labor		36.2	-5.1	35.6		
Greens		8.0	-3.8	8.2
Palmer United	3.8
Others		7.2

Two-party preferred

Coalition	52.2	+5.7	52.6
Labor		47.8	-5.7	47.4

Boothby. The run of five successive swings against Andrew Southcott at elections going back to 1996 came to an emphatic end as Labor directed its resources elsewhere. Southcott was up 5.9% on the primary vote and 7.3% on two-party preferred.

Hindmarsh. The South Australian swing hit Labor hardest where they needed it least, an 8.2% swing handily accounting for Steve Georganas’s 6.1% margin in the most marginal of their six seats. Labor’s fortunes in Hindmarsh have changed since Georganas won it for them at the 2004 election, at which time Kingston, Makin and Wakefield were Liberal seats on respective margins of 0.1%, 0.9% and 0.7%. Those seats have stayed with Labor since falling to them in 2007, currently being held by respective margins of 9.7%, 5.4% and 3.1%.

Wakefield. After talk that Nick Champion might be troubled as a result of job cuts at Holden’s Elizabeth plant, he retained a 3.1% margin in the face of a 7.1% swing, which was slightly higher than the statewide result of 5.8%.


		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	40.2	+6.9	40.5
Labor		35.1	-9.3	34.7		
Greens		8.1	-8.5	8.3
Palmer United	6.2
Others		10.4

Two-party preferred

Coalition	51.6	+9.4	51.2
Labor		48.4	-9.4	48.8

Bass and Braddon moved very closely in tandem, with two-party swings of 10.9% and 10.3% that were both driven by Labor primary vote collapses at around the double-digit mark, and increases in the Liberal vote of around 8%. Lyons fell with a bigger swing off a lower base, the margin of 12.3% accounted for by a 14.0% swing with primary votes shifts well into double digits for both parties. However, it was a different story in the south of the state, with Julie Collins holding on to a 4.9% margin in Franklin after a relatively benign 5.9% swing. In Denison, Andrew Wilkie’s vote was up from 21.3% to 38.3%, with Labor (down 10.8% to 24.5%) and the Greens (down 11.3% to 7.7%) making way. The Liberals held steady, but nonetheless remained slightly below Labor and sure to remain in third place after distribution of Greens preferences.

Australian Capital Territory

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	34.5	-0.1	34.7
Labor		43.4	-2.1	42.9		
Greens		13.0	-5.8	13.4
Palmer United	2.8
Others		6.3

Two-party preferred

Coalition	40.0	+1.9	40.2
Labor		60.0	-1.9	59.8

With only a subdued swing against Labor, the outstanding feature of the result appears to be a slump in the Greens vote, down 6.0% in Canberra and 5.8% in Fraser. However, this can largely be put down to greater competition for the minor party vote. The 2010 election saw only three candidates nominate in Canberra and four in Fraser (the Secular Party together with the usual three), but this time there were six and eight seats respectively. A clearer picture is presented by the Senate, where the Greens vote was down 4.1% to 18.8% despite the high-profile candidacy of Simon Sheikh, while Labor fell 6.0% to 34.8%. Both major parties were just clear of a quota.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,051 comments on “Call of the board: part two”

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  1. confessions

    I have been caught up in finals fever all week. Day after election, I went to see Carlton play and I was happily distracted. Also had the sad distraction of funeral for uncle of my OH yesterday, who had unexpectedly passed away.
    Today I am reflecting on the sort of people who are now running our country on state and federal levels, and I am feeling somewhat queasy……..

  2. victoria

    I was unhappy before the election in anticipation, but now some of the reality is being revealed, I am both sad and angry that the advances on many fronts we have made in six years are all likely to be trashed.

  3. victoria:

    Phelps is among the most odious of elected members IMO, as are many in parliamentary upper houses. He always has been a highly vituperative individual, whether commenting on blogs or in his parliamentary capacity.

  4. lizzie

    It is quite disheartening to say the least. Labor have a monumental task in attempting to hold the tories to account. Are they capable of doing so?

  5. Phelps looks to qualify as a 24k nutter.

    [He once compared the former army officer and federal Labor MP Mike Kelly to the guards at a concentration camp. ]
    [Peter Phelps, has been accused of likening scientists to Nazis in a speech to Parliament.
    ”At the heart of many scientists – but not all scientists – lies the heart of a totalitarian planner.”]

    [“Traffic lights are a Bolshevist menace… Traffic lights are things which are set up to try and control traffic to try and control individuals on the roads,” Dr Phelps told Parliament.

    “They are normally programmed by some central planner who will tell you when you can come and when you can go.”]

  6. poroti

    I should add that perhaps what is needed is some Bolveshist to ignore the red signal when Phelps has the right of way on green……….

  7. poroti

    Sounds like a perfect fit with the laissez faire IPA.
    Unless Abbott is such a wimp that he won’t allow anything to be done (faint hope 🙁 ), we’re in for a nasty period.

    Perhaps Peta is our only hope to keep control of the “team”.

  8. vic,

    The loss of talent acros the board has been devastating. And, anyone strutting around saying, “It could have been worse are kidding themselves”.

    The only way forward is for the Party to draw a line in the sand, put their personality and egos aside and get on with developing policies that mean something for the Australian voters.

    All I can say is I’m hopeful but not confident.

  9. Some good news. Another Murdoch minion charged and this time charges that will get the US regulators interested.

    [Sun news editor charged with corrupt payments

    Mr O’Driscoll is being charged with one count of conspiracy to commit misconduct in public office in relation to alleged payments of £5,000 to public officials including police officers and employees of Broadmoor. ]

  10. GG

    I should add that I was always comfortable with Rudd owning this loss, as too much damage had been done to the party in the intervening period. Much preferable to JG having to carry it

  11. [The loss of talent acros the board has been devastating. And, anyone strutting around saying, “It could have been worse are kidding themselves”.]

    It’s also disheartening to see people saying the next leader should be telegenic and so on. If the last decade has told us anything, messiahs invariably turn out to be duds!

  12. was unhappy before the election in anticipation, but now some of the reality is being revealed, I am both sad and angry that the advances on many fronts we have made in six years are all likely to be trashed. lizzie posted/

    well it did not escape me for one min, on the morning of the election I read the bionic eye research was to get NO more funding , cried in despair
    my depression is taking hold I must move on but how

    mari ask me about intellectual snobbery,,

    its people of high intellect so called, that have not pointed out to the voters what they where voting for

    the political scientists of aust should of been yelling from the rooftops.the university people to busy dissecting stuff to think what would happen

  13. the next leader has to appeal to the young

    ive had young people phone 35/ 43
    suggesting Jason Clare

    albo and Jason would make a good team

    NO woman please we don’t want another one of our ladies trashed

    that for the future

    they are your only hope join the alp I have

  14. vic,

    Failure is always an orphan which no one wants to own. The reality is the current situation is a collective result and whether individuals choose to take responsibility for their actions or not, the starting point for the future is the same.

    Trust will only be restored with our MPs acting collegial1y, displaying a unity of purpose and demonstrating they are more interested in promoting good policies than their own egos and careers.

  15. Good Morning

    Another new day another step forward towards the darkness.

    Good decision by Caucus that if an election is held for leader in meantime Senator Wong will be the Labor Party interim leader/spokesperson.

  16. GG

    Of course it is a collective failure of the whole party, but as Rudd was the figurehead during this campaign, he wears the defeat so to speak.

    In any case, whoever is part of the leadership team need to get focused and ruthless in holding Abbott and his cronies to account.

  17. “@SabraLane: And @AlboMP said on the doors, “one of the important lessons we learn is not to be driven by the 24 hour media cycle’. Your thoughts?”

  18. my say

    My mum loves Penny Wong and wishes she was Labor’s next PM. I told her that the odds were highly stacked against her……

  19. “@sortius: Look people, it’s not the news cycle that’s the problem, it’s that we have a megalomaniac CONTROLLING the news cycle. #auspol”

  20. Mr Denmore ‏@MrDenmore 2m
    Having ridden the media Valkyries from Opposition, our new PM now wants a slower, gentler news cycle, says @murpharoo. Can he do that?]

    Our trusty media will give him whatever he wants.

  21. I don’t see it as collective
    only those that chose to undermine

    but over the years the libs re Costello
    \remember the media did not harp on Costello

    like they did rudd

    so when you think about things always bring the media back
    to your thoughts

    with out them /him abbott would not be that person

    never will I write think his title never

  22. POROTI
    I put your link on Murdoch on Twitter and asked for it to be retweeted with comment Tick Tick Tick Tweeters are doing what I asked 😀

  23. confessions

    It is therefore encumbent upon team Labor to get out there day in day out, and state with all the confidence Abbott and his cronies did for years.

    The mantra…….

    This govt is bad and getting worse……

  24. BK

    Dont know if you see my response last night to your news re the bronze statue at tue Adelaide oval.

    In any event, congratuations again…

  25. I’d say Abbott playing King Canute and stopping the media waves coming to shore will be one of the more amusing phenomena of this new Government. The media cycle is now driven by the speed stories and issues are now communicated. I doubt Abbott is going to be able to control social media.

  26. mari

    re twitter opinion please serious question

    d we really get past out there to the libs and swinging voters

    I just fear it goes around in a circle just back to us

    face book is different as people have different political friends?

    the only way back is to have more members join unions

    and let abbott do all he wants sadly

    argentina comes to mind took them 20 years to get back how it was

  27. GG

    Abbott will be able to get the support of OM. But as you say, social media is only going to get more bigger and better in the short term

  28. Dearest William,

    Warnambool is a very, very long way from Indi – I’m surprised there are any votes for Cathy McGowan there at all.

    You MIGHT mean Wangaratta…

  29. BK
    [So we lose Mirabella from the front bench and Abbott gives us Michaelia Cash. ]

    Oh no! As nasty as Mirabella is, of the two Cash is much harder on the ears. Cash is not ministerial material so it shows how desperate Abbott is for a female, any female.

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