What follows is a brief overview of the results in electorates I felt worth commenting on for one reason or another, together with projections of state vote shares based on ordinary votes results (which are not quite fully accounted for in the count, but close enough to it) and the extent to which postals, pre-polls and absent votes shifted the totals in 2010. New South Wales, Queensland and the Northern Territory are covered herein, with the others to follow.
New South Wales
% Swing Projection Coalition 47.3 +2.6 47.2 Labor 34.9 -2.8 34.5 Greens 7.7 -2.2 8.1 Palmer United 4.3 Others 5.8 Two-party preferred Coalition 54.2 +3.2 54.3 Labor 45.8 -3.2 45.7
Banks. The 3.3% swing which ousted Daryl Melham was almost exactly equal to the state total, which followed an 8.9% swing in 2010. An increase in the number of candidates from four to nine restricted the Liberal primary vote gain to 1.7% and contributed to a halving of the Greens vote, down from 9.6% to 4.7%.
Barton. The seat vacated by former Attorney-General Robert McClelland is going down to the wire, the 6.9% margin exactly matched by the swing on ordinary votes. This was the second biggest swing against Labor in Sydney after Macquarie. Barton was another seat that witnessed a dramatic proliferation of candidates, from three to eight, with the five minor party and independent newcomers collectively drawing 11.3%. The Liberals nonetheless increased their primary vote slightly, the balance coming off Labor and the Greens.
Blaxland. Reports on the eve of the election suggested Labor had grave fears for Jason Clare’s hold on Paul Keating’s old seat, despite its 12.2% margin. This proved entirely unfounded, with Labor up 5.4% on the primary vote and holding steady on two-party preferred.
Charlton. For some reason, the seat vacated by Greg Combet gave the Palmer United Party what was comfortably its highest vote in New South Wales at 11.3% (UPDATE: Frickeg in comments reminds me the belated disendorsement of the Liberal candidate probably had something to do with it). The party’s second best showing in the state was 7.8% in neighbouring Hunter. That aside, Combet’s departure did not cause any disturbance to Labor, the two-party swing being slightly below the state average.
Dobell. Craig Thomson managed 4.0%, which was at least better than Peter Slipper and contributed to a double-digit drop in the Labor primary vote, their worst such result in the state. Also contributing was former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, running as an independent with the backing of John Singleton, who managed 8.3%. The Liberal primary vote was up slightly, and its 5.9% swing on two-party preferred adequate to account for the 5.5% margin.
Eden-Monaro. Mike Kelly appeared to be well placed early in the count, but the larger and later reporting booths, including those in Queanbeyan, tended to swing more heavily. Kelly is presently sitting on a swing of 4.8%, enough to account for his 4.4% margin barring late count peculiarities and maintain Eden-Monaro’s cherished bellwether record. This was higher than the state average, part of a pattern in which swings in the state’s regions were actually slightly higher than in Sydney, contrary to all expectations.
Fowler. After all the hype about Labor’s looming collapse in western Sydney, a seat in that very area produced the most anomalous swing of the election in Labor’s favour. The 9.0% swing to Chris Hayes was 12.2% above the statewide par for Labor, and was fuelled by an 11.2% drop in the Liberal primary vote and swings approaching 20% in Cabramatta, the very area the Liberals had hoped to target by picking a Vietnamese candidate in Andrew Nguyen. However, look at the seat’s behaviour over longer range suggests this to have been a correction after an anomalous result in 2010, when Liberal candidate Thomas Dang slashed the Labor margin by 13.8% and picked up swings ranging from 16.5% to 23.1% in the Cambramatta booths.
Gilmore. The south coast seat was one of three in New South Wales to swing to Labor, presumably on account of the retirement of long-serving Liberal member Joanna Gash. Her successor, Ann Sudmalis, has emerged with 2.6% remaining of a 5.3% margin.
Grayndler. The Greens vote fell only modestly, by 1.2% to 22.8%, but it looks enough to have cost them a second place they attained for the first time in 2010. With primary votes generally fairly static, the change in Liberal preferencing policy would presumably have inflicted a hefty two-party swing if they had made the final count.
Hunter. Joel Fitzgibbon was down 10.1% on the primary vote, and while this was partly on account of the Palmer United Party’s second best performance in the state, he also suffered Labor’s biggest two-party swing in the state at 8.9%.
Kingsford Smith. One of a number of pieces of saved furniture for Labor in Sydney, Kingsford Smith turned in a largely status quo result in Peter Garrett’s absence, outgoing Senator Matt Thistlethwaite easily defending a 5.2% margin against a swing of 1.9%.
Lindsay. The swing that unseated David Bradbury was slightly on the high side for Sydney at 3.5%, more than accounting for a margin of 1.1% without meeting the more fevered expectations of a western Sydney disaster.
Macarthur. Liberal sophomore Russell Matheson picked up the second biggest two-party Coalition swing in New South Wales, up 6.8% on the primary vote and 8.4% on two-party preferred.
Page. The expectation that Labor would perform better in regional New South Wales than in Sydney was most strikingly defied in Page, where Janelle Saffin unexpectedly fell victim to a 7.2% swing.
Parramatta. Julie Owens’ seat produced a fairly typical result for Sydney in swinging 3.4% to the Liberals, which hasn’t been enough to account for the 4.4% margin. (UPDATE: I speak too soon. In keeping with a general trend of late counting away from Labor, postal votes are flowing heavily to the Liberals and putting Owens at very serious risk.)
Robertson. As expected, the seat Deborah O’Neill did well to retain in 2010 with a margin of 1.0% was an early election night casualty for Labor, the swing of 4.0% being perfectly typical for non-metropolitan New South Wales.
Throsby. Gary “Angry” Anderson managed 10.5% as candidate of the Nationals, nearly doubling the party’s vote from 2010 despite the number of candidates being up from five to 11. The Greens conversely were well down, by 6.5% to 5.3%.
Werriwa. Frequently written off during the campaign, Laurie Ferguson is set to retain about 2.2% of his 6.8% margin from 2010.
Queensland
% Swing Projection Coalition 45.3 -1.9 45.5 Labor 30.1 -3.9 29.7 Greens 6.1 -4.7 6.2 Palmer United 11.3 Others 7.2 Two-party preferred Coalition 56.0 +1.1 56.3 Labor 44.0 -1.1 43.7
Blair. One Labor MP with good cause to feel glad about Kevin Rudd’s return was Shayne Neumann, who picked up a 1.4% two-party swing and held firm on the primary vote in the face of 12.8% vote for the Palmer United Party. Here as elsewhere in Queensland, the Greens crashed in the absence of the Kevin Rudd protest vote in 2010, dropping 6.9% to 4.2%.
Brisbane. While Labor had much to be relieved about in Queensland, its high hopes for recovering Brisbane were not realised, with Liberal National Party member Teresa Gamabaro up 1.8% on the primary vote, Labor steady. A 6.9% drop in the Greens vote to 14.3%, coming off Andrew Bartlett’s high-profile campaign in 2010, produced a significantly weaker flow of preferences to Labor.
Capricornia. The central Queensland seat vacated by Kirsten Livermore is going down to the wire after a heavy 8.9% drop in the Labor primary vote. This was mostly down to the competition from the Palmer and Katter parties, the former outscoring the latter 7.9% to 5.3%. With the Liberal National Party vote little changed, Labor suffered a 4.4% swing on ordinary votes off a margin of 4.6%.
Fairfax. Clive Palmer seems to be fighting to hold on to a 1411 against a strong trend in late counting towards Liberal National Party candidate Ted O’Brien. However, O’Brien’s current vote count looks to have been inflated by a discrepancy you can read about here. As things stand, the key to Palmer’s potential victory is his clear success in outpolling Labor 27.3% to 18.1% on ordinary votes, with LNP candidate Ted O’Brien’s 41.0% below the safety zone with Labor and Greens preferences flowing strongly against him.
Fisher. With Palmer United Party candidate Bill Schoch apparently primed to overtake Labor on preferences, despite trailing them 21.0% to 18.3% on the primary vote, Mal Brough’s 43.8% share of the vote was an uncomfortably long distance from the 50% mark. Nonetheless, Brough appears to be gaining about a quarter of the overall preferences on offer, enough to get him over the line with a few per cent to spare.
Griffith. Kevin Rudd suffered Labor’s equal biggest swing in Queensland of 5.2%, with Bill Glasson’s 5.9% lift on the primary vote the second highest achieved by an LNP candidate.
Kennedy. Bob Katter emerged a big loser of election night with a 17.1% slump in his primary vote, reducing him to 29.5%. Liberal National Party candidate Noeline Ikin was the beneficiary of a 14.0% spike that put her well in front on the primary vote count with 40.6%, but preferences are flowing solidly enough to Katter to leave him with a margin slightly below 3%.
Leichhardt. There was strong movement to Labor in Aboriginal communities, doubtless reflecting the background of Labor candidate Billy Gordon. This briefly created the illusion of a potential Labor victory as the first booth-matched results came through on election night, but that was negated by a strong performance by LNP member Warren Entsch in Cairns and the electorate’s rural areas.
Lilley. The 1.6% swing against Wayne Swan was well in line with the statewide norm, and if anything a little above it. Given the pre-election publicity though, Swan’s success in retaining almost all of his 2010 primary vote was among the results that lifted Labor’s spirits on an otherwise grim evening.
Petrie. Kevin Rudd’s election night boast of having defended all of Labor’s Queensland seats to the contrary, it appears that Yvette d’Ath has been unseated by a swing of 3.0% on the ordinary votes, compared with her pre-election margin of 2.5%.
Northern Territory
% Swing Projection Coalition 41.2 +0.8 41.6 Labor 38.3 -0.2 37.7 Greens 7.7 -5.0 7.9 Palmer United 4.6 Others 8.2 Two-party preferred Coalition 49.7 +0.9 50.1 Labor 50.3 -0.9 49.9
Lingiari. As usual, swings in the extra-Darwin Northern Territory electorate were all over the shop, the general picture being of a slight swing to Labor in remote communities blunting the swing against Labor to 2.7%, short of Warren Snowdon’s 3.7% margin. This followed a 2010 result which delivered huge swings to the Country Liberal Party in remote communities but partly balanced them out with strong swings to Labor in the major centre, specifically Alice Springs.
Solomon. Natasha Griggs, who unseated Labor’s Damien Hale in 2010, notably failed to enjoy a sophomore surge, Solomon delivering a rare 0.7% swing to Labor to reduce the CLP margin to 0.9%.
Just watched a bit of Shorten’s “I’m running” announcement. I really really tried to be open minded, and I don’t get a vote anyway, but to me he comes across as a wooden, uninspiring lightweight with dreadful reading even from his prompter, and zero spontaneity and warmth. Am I missing something? At least Albo has some warmth, spontaneity, genuine passion. Again, I don’t get a vote but geez Shorten looks to me to be a big mistake for Labor and reminds me of Brendan Nelson, plus he’s got baggage.
bemused and markjs, I suspect that the vote is not so ill-defined as that and possibly says they may not pass on the responsibility or something.
Feeney
[Incidentally, speaking of Conroy, he should take his own advice and quit politics, and make way, perhaps, for Laura Smyth who lost her seat – a sorry loss.
Conroy could then spend more time with his great mate James Packer playing golf together.
Packer would give him a nice, cushy job.]
Absolutely!!!
Player One@965
That is hardly fair to Shorten, he had accomplices like Feeney, Arbib, Conroy and Howse.
Yes, and you do more and more to convince me.
But clearly not a very bright one.
Alias. Again. I repeat the point. The rules are the rules. Until they are changed, the old rules apply. I understand the political point you make. But I’m a lawyer so I’m just focussing on how the rules actually get changed, and if they haven’t been changed, how can anything but the old rules apply?
It appears at this stage that only Shorten has nominated for the leadership. If no one else nominates, doesnt the mode of electing a leader become a moot point
MTBW
Don’t blame me if no-one in the Labor Party except for Psephos understand WTF is going on.
Blame Rudd.
Victoria.indeed you are right. I suspect Albo is pondering that very issue himself. So all my questions may just be rhetorical….
If there is to be a ballot, Albanese will be Leader. Shorten will probably have a majority in Caucus, but they wouldn’t dare overrule a decisive vote by the members (or even half the members). But I suspect one of the Right unions will take it to court.
vic, yup, but then it will be called a stitch up :P.
until rudd goes
the media that mr bowe put up here will say
who is the better opp leader
kev or ?
so time to go kev we cannot have that going on for ever its wearing us out
Outsider
The point, I think, is that the rules are the tail. The tail does not wag the dog.
[It appears at this stage that only Shorten has nominated for the leadership. If no one else nominates, doesnt the mode of electing a leader become a moot point]
I think it would.
[I find it a bit hypocritical that they decided on the one seat that a real, actual, red blooded mining Billionaire was running, they somehow managed to put the guy above the Lib candidate on their how-to-vote cards instead of last where you would expect him to be.]
Its called a grenade. Go on ST, throw yourself on it…..ypu know you want to. 🙂
psephos
If Albo were to win who would you think would be Deputy?
Displayname
From what i recall, following the 2010 election, Abbott was re elected as LOTO unopposed. I doubt anyone thought that was a stitch up.
Outsider@992
I have yet to meet a humble lawyer. 😛
was the no about sean
well not surprised
Would the membership ballot be for the deputy as well?
But the Labor Party is a legal entity! Rule changes have to follow the process set by the rules. It seems to me to be a real crappy mess. I am really not trying to be argumentative. I understand what you are saying. The fact we are not coming up with any clear answer to this question suggests there isn’t one. So I don’t think Albo will stand. It solves the problem
confessions
Yes!
victoria, I’m just pretending I’m a media-type who likes to invent their own narrative :P.
Bemused. Maybe just bemused then!
[If Albo were to win who would you think would be Deputy?]
No idea. Ask Rudd, this was all his idea.
What does this 50/50 thing mean anyway? Caucus votes add up to 50/100 and members the other 50?
MTBW@999
I think you are trying to display a message you got in gmail. Gmail security will block others from accessing it.
[Yes!]
But only if there is more than one candidate, presumably.
Mick
To me Shorten always looks like someone who has just suffered the latest in a long line of disappointments.
Mick
I heard Shorten on radio and he sounded hollow and unconvincing.
So, on that performance, I agree!
DisplayName
Understood. 🙂
Thanks bemused!
Dee I agree with you on Shorten but then again he has not ever impressed me.
[So I don’t think Albo will stand. It solves the problem.]
Well, maybe. It would leave Shorten leader by default, when everyone knows the branch members would have elected Albanese. Not a very good start for a new leader. And it would leave it open for Rudd to start undermining him by saying he has no legitimacy.
If Labor avoids a ballot by only having one nominee, the membership will feel cheated they didn’t get a say. Pissing off the base like that wouldn’t be smart.
As for Conroy, he sounds rabid! 😡
bemused@1026
Indeed. You are trying to give us access to your gmail account.
Gmail tries hard to protect people from their own stupidity.
Sending the same link which didn’t work the first time, proclaims your lack of knowledge of how these things work.
No shame in that, but you need to find the actual URL without the mail.google.com/ start to it.
Dee:
Shorten reminds me of Rudd: lacking in sincerity and conviction.
If the Labor party wants to tie itself up in knots over the legalities of rules it is just going to look damn stupid.
Perception is reality.
The public (and the media) perceive that the new rules apply. The new rules have broadly been accepted across the wider community as a step in the right direction after the debacle of the Rudd-Gillard wars.
The rules will be made to fit the perception, not the other way around.
Commonsense will prevail.
feeney @ 996: “Incidentally, speaking of Conroy, he should take his own advice and quit politics, and make way, perhaps, for Laura Smyth who lost her seat – a sorry loss.”
I find it wondrous strange that people have been getting all excited about the possibility of some people getting elected as senators with few first preference votes, but don’t seem concerned about the number of senators who are there having received no votes at an election, eg Carr, Dastyari and (possibly) Howes.
Outsider@1020
I have asked this before and did not really get a satisfying answer.
What sort of a legal entity is a political party? What legislation regulates a political party?
It is not a company. It is not an incorporated association.
Perhaps my new ‘humble lawyer’ friend can answer? 😉
[What sort of a legal entity is a political party? What legislation regulates a political party?]
It’s a party registered under the Electoral Act.
Given the 50/50 thing, who wins in the event of a tie between caucus and members? Say if caucus all vote one way and members all vote another way?
The conservative comments suggesting we deliberately provoke one of our closest neighbours, a nation if 250 million people and a $trillion economy, with whom relations can be tense, for what really is truly pathetic ends really highlights a lot of the problems with politics at present. Its all about image and the 6pm news or TT, rather than respecting one of our closest ally’s and important trading partner’s sovereignty and the international laws of the sea.
Well done.
New2This
Posted Thursday, September 12, 2013 at 7:21 pm | Permalink
How is the corned horse MySay… Have you got a recipe for us
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so would u call that being bullied mr bowe ?
what on earth is he on about,, i ve only left tweet’today
well i must say the right thing to liberals i know they dislike me as much as i do them .
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u wanted it ill post it for you,,new 2 this there just for u
horsemeat? – Yahoo! UK & Ireland Answers
au.answers.yahoo.com › All Categories › Food & Drink › Ethnic Cuisine
Feb 9, 2013 – Horsemeat used to be a good part of most European meals. The French stuck with it long after the rest of us gave it up and we only gave it up …
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so u agree we should have to putup with remarks like that
do u think u mr bowe run A TIGHT ship i will let u decide
===========================
thanks peep for the loyalty not shown for poster who has been here for years
Psephos. And therefore subject to its own rules. I suspect Albo and Shorten know this and have done a deal. God knows what. I don’t there will be a ballot. Rudd certainly has an amazing capacity to create a mess!
ST
[What do the Extreme Greens and Labor have to say ]
I’ve never heard of them …
[After spending nigh on 3 years castigating mining billionaires by the Greens and ALP Members I find it a bit hypocritical that they decided on the one seat that a real, actual, red blooded mining Billionaire was running, they somehow managed to put the guy above the Lib candidate on their how-to-vote cards instead of last where you would expect him to be.]
We just wanted to prove he was wrong about us being an arm of the CIA. Then again, it could be a cunning plan …
Hang on … didn’t you preference Clive above the Libs? Or was it Katter. I get my RW nutbags confused sometimes.
Note … Clive Palmer had a policy that was less hostile to asylum seekers than the Libs, but was the same in most other matters. That made the choice a little simpler since the battle was always going to be between the Lib and the PUP.
These characters will have to work together in Parliament:
– Bill Shorten, the Labor powerbroker stabbed Kev in the back, then Gillard
– Wayne Swan, stabbed Kev in the back then watched Bill Shorten do the same to his leader Gillard. Hates Rudds guts
– Senator Conroy, absolutely hates Rudds guts
– Kevin Rudd, wants his job back but is willing to wait in the shadows for now…
– Albanese, has the support of the membership but Shorten wants his rightful place on the ALP throne and has the numbers in caucus to scrap the new Rudd leadership rules to get it
Anyone who thinks the ALP infighting is over are kidding themselves
Tanya Plibersek is the stand-out candidate for Leader.
However, it won’t happen. The NSW and Victorian Right would not abide her.
In any event, perhaps it’s for the better that she not be Leader. Imagine all the crap she’d be subjected to?
The clothes she’s wearing, her shoes, her hair, her earrings, fat butt, funny voice etc etc.
Men have no such problem. Just wear the same old suit, and a fresh shirt and tie, and all is well.
I’m of the view there will never be another female Leader in Australian politics.
Australians will not accept a female, and the worst critics are women themselves.
\
The NSW ALP leader was elected by the State Conference between 1930-39 – this ensured that J T Lang remained leader despite being deeply unpopular with the electorate and increasingly unwanted by caucus. Not the most successful period of the party’s history.
All caucus have to do is vote unanimously for one person. Since it’s quite likely that the members vote will not be unanimous, whoever caucus votes for will win ;).
OC:
I do love your historical insights. They invariably throw such clarity over the present day. 🙂