What follows is a brief overview of the results in electorates I felt worth commenting on for one reason or another, together with projections of state vote shares based on ordinary votes results (which are not quite fully accounted for in the count, but close enough to it) and the extent to which postals, pre-polls and absent votes shifted the totals in 2010. New South Wales, Queensland and the Northern Territory are covered herein, with the others to follow.
New South Wales
% Swing Projection Coalition 47.3 +2.6 47.2 Labor 34.9 -2.8 34.5 Greens 7.7 -2.2 8.1 Palmer United 4.3 Others 5.8 Two-party preferred Coalition 54.2 +3.2 54.3 Labor 45.8 -3.2 45.7
Banks. The 3.3% swing which ousted Daryl Melham was almost exactly equal to the state total, which followed an 8.9% swing in 2010. An increase in the number of candidates from four to nine restricted the Liberal primary vote gain to 1.7% and contributed to a halving of the Greens vote, down from 9.6% to 4.7%.
Barton. The seat vacated by former Attorney-General Robert McClelland is going down to the wire, the 6.9% margin exactly matched by the swing on ordinary votes. This was the second biggest swing against Labor in Sydney after Macquarie. Barton was another seat that witnessed a dramatic proliferation of candidates, from three to eight, with the five minor party and independent newcomers collectively drawing 11.3%. The Liberals nonetheless increased their primary vote slightly, the balance coming off Labor and the Greens.
Blaxland. Reports on the eve of the election suggested Labor had grave fears for Jason Clare’s hold on Paul Keating’s old seat, despite its 12.2% margin. This proved entirely unfounded, with Labor up 5.4% on the primary vote and holding steady on two-party preferred.
Charlton. For some reason, the seat vacated by Greg Combet gave the Palmer United Party what was comfortably its highest vote in New South Wales at 11.3% (UPDATE: Frickeg in comments reminds me the belated disendorsement of the Liberal candidate probably had something to do with it). The party’s second best showing in the state was 7.8% in neighbouring Hunter. That aside, Combet’s departure did not cause any disturbance to Labor, the two-party swing being slightly below the state average.
Dobell. Craig Thomson managed 4.0%, which was at least better than Peter Slipper and contributed to a double-digit drop in the Labor primary vote, their worst such result in the state. Also contributing was former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, running as an independent with the backing of John Singleton, who managed 8.3%. The Liberal primary vote was up slightly, and its 5.9% swing on two-party preferred adequate to account for the 5.5% margin.
Eden-Monaro. Mike Kelly appeared to be well placed early in the count, but the larger and later reporting booths, including those in Queanbeyan, tended to swing more heavily. Kelly is presently sitting on a swing of 4.8%, enough to account for his 4.4% margin barring late count peculiarities and maintain Eden-Monaro’s cherished bellwether record. This was higher than the state average, part of a pattern in which swings in the state’s regions were actually slightly higher than in Sydney, contrary to all expectations.
Fowler. After all the hype about Labor’s looming collapse in western Sydney, a seat in that very area produced the most anomalous swing of the election in Labor’s favour. The 9.0% swing to Chris Hayes was 12.2% above the statewide par for Labor, and was fuelled by an 11.2% drop in the Liberal primary vote and swings approaching 20% in Cabramatta, the very area the Liberals had hoped to target by picking a Vietnamese candidate in Andrew Nguyen. However, look at the seat’s behaviour over longer range suggests this to have been a correction after an anomalous result in 2010, when Liberal candidate Thomas Dang slashed the Labor margin by 13.8% and picked up swings ranging from 16.5% to 23.1% in the Cambramatta booths.
Gilmore. The south coast seat was one of three in New South Wales to swing to Labor, presumably on account of the retirement of long-serving Liberal member Joanna Gash. Her successor, Ann Sudmalis, has emerged with 2.6% remaining of a 5.3% margin.
Grayndler. The Greens vote fell only modestly, by 1.2% to 22.8%, but it looks enough to have cost them a second place they attained for the first time in 2010. With primary votes generally fairly static, the change in Liberal preferencing policy would presumably have inflicted a hefty two-party swing if they had made the final count.
Hunter. Joel Fitzgibbon was down 10.1% on the primary vote, and while this was partly on account of the Palmer United Party’s second best performance in the state, he also suffered Labor’s biggest two-party swing in the state at 8.9%.
Kingsford Smith. One of a number of pieces of saved furniture for Labor in Sydney, Kingsford Smith turned in a largely status quo result in Peter Garrett’s absence, outgoing Senator Matt Thistlethwaite easily defending a 5.2% margin against a swing of 1.9%.
Lindsay. The swing that unseated David Bradbury was slightly on the high side for Sydney at 3.5%, more than accounting for a margin of 1.1% without meeting the more fevered expectations of a western Sydney disaster.
Macarthur. Liberal sophomore Russell Matheson picked up the second biggest two-party Coalition swing in New South Wales, up 6.8% on the primary vote and 8.4% on two-party preferred.
Page. The expectation that Labor would perform better in regional New South Wales than in Sydney was most strikingly defied in Page, where Janelle Saffin unexpectedly fell victim to a 7.2% swing.
Parramatta. Julie Owens’ seat produced a fairly typical result for Sydney in swinging 3.4% to the Liberals, which hasn’t been enough to account for the 4.4% margin. (UPDATE: I speak too soon. In keeping with a general trend of late counting away from Labor, postal votes are flowing heavily to the Liberals and putting Owens at very serious risk.)
Robertson. As expected, the seat Deborah O’Neill did well to retain in 2010 with a margin of 1.0% was an early election night casualty for Labor, the swing of 4.0% being perfectly typical for non-metropolitan New South Wales.
Throsby. Gary “Angry” Anderson managed 10.5% as candidate of the Nationals, nearly doubling the party’s vote from 2010 despite the number of candidates being up from five to 11. The Greens conversely were well down, by 6.5% to 5.3%.
Werriwa. Frequently written off during the campaign, Laurie Ferguson is set to retain about 2.2% of his 6.8% margin from 2010.
Queensland
% Swing Projection Coalition 45.3 -1.9 45.5 Labor 30.1 -3.9 29.7 Greens 6.1 -4.7 6.2 Palmer United 11.3 Others 7.2 Two-party preferred Coalition 56.0 +1.1 56.3 Labor 44.0 -1.1 43.7
Blair. One Labor MP with good cause to feel glad about Kevin Rudd’s return was Shayne Neumann, who picked up a 1.4% two-party swing and held firm on the primary vote in the face of 12.8% vote for the Palmer United Party. Here as elsewhere in Queensland, the Greens crashed in the absence of the Kevin Rudd protest vote in 2010, dropping 6.9% to 4.2%.
Brisbane. While Labor had much to be relieved about in Queensland, its high hopes for recovering Brisbane were not realised, with Liberal National Party member Teresa Gamabaro up 1.8% on the primary vote, Labor steady. A 6.9% drop in the Greens vote to 14.3%, coming off Andrew Bartlett’s high-profile campaign in 2010, produced a significantly weaker flow of preferences to Labor.
Capricornia. The central Queensland seat vacated by Kirsten Livermore is going down to the wire after a heavy 8.9% drop in the Labor primary vote. This was mostly down to the competition from the Palmer and Katter parties, the former outscoring the latter 7.9% to 5.3%. With the Liberal National Party vote little changed, Labor suffered a 4.4% swing on ordinary votes off a margin of 4.6%.
Fairfax. Clive Palmer seems to be fighting to hold on to a 1411 against a strong trend in late counting towards Liberal National Party candidate Ted O’Brien. However, O’Brien’s current vote count looks to have been inflated by a discrepancy you can read about here. As things stand, the key to Palmer’s potential victory is his clear success in outpolling Labor 27.3% to 18.1% on ordinary votes, with LNP candidate Ted O’Brien’s 41.0% below the safety zone with Labor and Greens preferences flowing strongly against him.
Fisher. With Palmer United Party candidate Bill Schoch apparently primed to overtake Labor on preferences, despite trailing them 21.0% to 18.3% on the primary vote, Mal Brough’s 43.8% share of the vote was an uncomfortably long distance from the 50% mark. Nonetheless, Brough appears to be gaining about a quarter of the overall preferences on offer, enough to get him over the line with a few per cent to spare.
Griffith. Kevin Rudd suffered Labor’s equal biggest swing in Queensland of 5.2%, with Bill Glasson’s 5.9% lift on the primary vote the second highest achieved by an LNP candidate.
Kennedy. Bob Katter emerged a big loser of election night with a 17.1% slump in his primary vote, reducing him to 29.5%. Liberal National Party candidate Noeline Ikin was the beneficiary of a 14.0% spike that put her well in front on the primary vote count with 40.6%, but preferences are flowing solidly enough to Katter to leave him with a margin slightly below 3%.
Leichhardt. There was strong movement to Labor in Aboriginal communities, doubtless reflecting the background of Labor candidate Billy Gordon. This briefly created the illusion of a potential Labor victory as the first booth-matched results came through on election night, but that was negated by a strong performance by LNP member Warren Entsch in Cairns and the electorate’s rural areas.
Lilley. The 1.6% swing against Wayne Swan was well in line with the statewide norm, and if anything a little above it. Given the pre-election publicity though, Swan’s success in retaining almost all of his 2010 primary vote was among the results that lifted Labor’s spirits on an otherwise grim evening.
Petrie. Kevin Rudd’s election night boast of having defended all of Labor’s Queensland seats to the contrary, it appears that Yvette d’Ath has been unseated by a swing of 3.0% on the ordinary votes, compared with her pre-election margin of 2.5%.
Northern Territory
% Swing Projection Coalition 41.2 +0.8 41.6 Labor 38.3 -0.2 37.7 Greens 7.7 -5.0 7.9 Palmer United 4.6 Others 8.2 Two-party preferred Coalition 49.7 +0.9 50.1 Labor 50.3 -0.9 49.9
Lingiari. As usual, swings in the extra-Darwin Northern Territory electorate were all over the shop, the general picture being of a slight swing to Labor in remote communities blunting the swing against Labor to 2.7%, short of Warren Snowdon’s 3.7% margin. This followed a 2010 result which delivered huge swings to the Country Liberal Party in remote communities but partly balanced them out with strong swings to Labor in the major centre, specifically Alice Springs.
Solomon. Natasha Griggs, who unseated Labor’s Damien Hale in 2010, notably failed to enjoy a sophomore surge, Solomon delivering a rare 0.7% swing to Labor to reduce the CLP margin to 0.9%.
Feeney I would love to see Plibersek as leader. Or Albo in preference to Shorten. I hate to say it, but Plibersek has numerous advantages compared to Julia Gillard, at least in terms of public perception. Mainly to do with the tv projection. She comes through the camera. Sadly Julia never did. One of those in explicable things. A bit like Paul keating was far more engaging in charming in person than he could ever project through the tv camera. Hawke the reverse. That’s life in politics. I don’t share your gender based pessimism.
@Sean/1046
You really need to look at your own party first before arguing Labor Party.
Pedant @ 1038
Dystari was formally elected at the election.
Carr filled a casual vacancy, and the talk is Howes will take Carr’s place if/when he resigns.
It occurs in all parties when filling casual vacancies, according to the Constitution.
I think all MPS – Senators and House of Reps – should serve their full term.
Outsider .. I agree on you regarding Plibersek v Gillard though I wonder if you’re forgetting that Gillard was a lot more relaxed, personable, engaging when she was DPM than when she was PM. The minute she became PM it was though she was drugged by somebody and her speech became far more wooden, the spark of personality in terms of her public appearances was drained out of her.
Leadership is never easy and it seems to change people. I wonder how it might change Albanese for example?
feeney@1047
I disagree.
Plibersek has the capability to be a popular female leader.
Dastyari wasn’t on the ballot paper this election.
Bob Carr and Doug Cameron were elected in NSW and Ursula Stephens lost her sear.
@Alias/1054
Showing his true self of “Fighting Tories”?
[Dastyari was formally elected at the election.]
Um, no. He’s taking over the term to which Thistlethwaite was elected in 2010. He won’t face the voters until 2016.
[A boat carrying asylum seekers has been intercepted in Australian waters, the third since the Abbott government was elected.]
So much for stopping the boats.
The attribute I love most about Plibersek – and I love many – is that withering look of contempt for someone with whom she disagrees that she musters so easily. And it’s entirely authentic.
It’s a devastating silent weapon any time she is on the box.
[’m of the view there will never be another female Leader in Australian politics. Australians will not accept a female, and the worst critics are women themselves.]
Maybe once Rupert Murdoch, Alan Jones and John Laws are all safely dead…
Outsider @ 1051
I agree with what you say about Plibersek.
It would be great to have an Albo/Plibersek team but it can’t and won’t happen.
Factions rule the Labor Party – not common sense and what’s good for the party.
OK, lets get this straight, on Saturday nite, the Australian electorate voted the incumbent Rudd/Gillard Government out.
They did not vote for Abbott, it wouldn’t have mattered who led the Coalition, people were in the mood to get rid of a Government that they did not like.
IMHO the closest Parallel to last Saturday was the 1992(?) Victorian state election, where the Victorian voters voted out Cain/Kirner. They certainly didn’t have any great love for Kennett, infact in the main, they despised him. The same can be applied to Abbott, he is hardly Mr Popular.
Again, then, as with now, there were alot of “Pundits” and Liberal supporters only to happy to dance on the ALP’s grave, predicting, in an all so patronising manner, that the ALP will be out of office for “generation”. The very best the ALP could hope for, perhaps a “miracle” win after maybe 3 terms in oppostion.
However, as history tells us, Kennett was rather unceromoniously dumped within 8 years. That was when Kennett, at least, had policies. As much as he was despised, people knew what he stood for.
What the 1999 Victorian State election proved that, with the right set of sound policies, and an opposition leader that can articualte what the ALP stands for to the electorate, there is no reason why they can bounce back pretty quickly
The biggest differnt between Kennett and Abbott imho, is that Abbott is both despised, but unlike Kennett, has no policies. Nor does anyone really know what he stands for.
If the ALP can get the Leadership sorted out quickly, keep the Abbott Government to account, as well as standing by the legislative record of the previous Government, then there is no reason that the ALP can win the next election and consign Abbott to being a one term wonder.
The Kennett era proved that Tory Governments, that were only elected because run on Hubris, and
I knew Julia at law school. She was always charming in person including in my later encounters. But she never got through the tv camera. i think the only difference when she was DPM is she simply didn’t get the intense coverage. She doesn’t project well,through the camera. Not a criticism of her as a person. I’m very very fond of her. Think she was a great PM. But it’s just one of those inexplicable things. Whereas Plibersek does come through the camera well. Any photographers out there should comment, because its also a fact in still photography. Some people just “look” better through a camera than others, regardless of their actual, in person, presentation. As politics has become much more of a game of image, sadly, these things do matter
[It would be great to have an Albo/Plibersek team but it can’t and won’t happen. Factions rule the Labor Party – not common sense and what’s good for the party.]
I love how the Left always think it’s “common sense” that they should have the leadership (AND the deputy leadership!), without actually winning the required support to do so.
Anyway, let me know when Rudd gives the Labor Party back to the Labor Party so that I can get back to supporting it with HTVCs, prepolling duty and the like.
Psephos. My alignment is with the Right too. But believe it or not, I actually think right now, factional interests need to make way for the best team. Many I know in the Right agree. But I think because of the rules mess rudd created, it will actually end up as LOO Shorten/Albo Deputy, uncontested
Outsider,
One of the reasons Gillard impressed me was how she didn’t lose her head when she was interviewed and it wasn’t going her way. I saw Rudd on his last 730 interview and he was all over the place. Most politicians for that matter struggle to stay as calm has she did. Goodness knows how she did it.
alias @ 1060
Yes, I agree.
She was brilliant on Q&A on Monday, when she gave that look to Richo and Brandis, as they sat their holding hands and giggling.
Richo was mouthing off about what the Labor Party should or would do, and she simply interjected “But you don’t speak for the Labor Party”.
Another instance was at the NPC debate with Dutton. She could barely conceal her contempt for him.
It was a sight to behold!
And I could be wrong!
[Some people just “look” better through a camera than others, regardless of their actual, in person, presentation. As politics has become much more of a game of image, sadly, these things do matter]
My own view is that Labor would do well to give up Messiah hunting. No more leaders who meet some desirable image or presentation, only to have zero management skills when it comes down to it.
I love how Labor made internal division and leadership the core focus while in government and now make internal division and leadership the core focus while in oppression.
When will it end………………………….
[Bugler
…….Goodness knows how she did it.]
By never answering a question in her life…
Psephos@1040
I have just been checking the Act and it says nothing about the internal affairs of a party.
The law in relation to incorporated associations, for example, has provisions to protect the rights of members and makes the rules a contract between the organisation and its members. There seems to be nothing like that for political parties.
I can understand political parties are a special case and may require greater freedom of action, but surely there should be things like protection of rights of members and a requirement that they follow their own rules?
[Most politicians for that matter struggle to stay as calm has she did.]
And remember those marathon press conferences she held with no speech notes?
I haven’t seen any other MP able to match that.
Psephos @ 1061
Yes, and it shouldn’t be too long now before at least two of them move on.
[My own view is that Labor would do well to give up Messiah hunting. No more leaders who meet some desirable image or presentation, only to have zero management skills when it comes down to it.]
Yes, look at Abbott. All the appeal of a hammerhead shark, and he’s about to become PM. Thanks, Kevin.
Possibly Plibersek might be LOO by the next election. Shorten for 2 years. Consensus has to be the new way for Labor. But I don’t underestimate ego either. So on reflection, Shorten will get a crack in 2016, with Plibersek to follow if he doesn’t win.
[I love how Labor made internal division and leadership the core focus while in government and now make internal division and leadership the core focus while in oppression.]
If powerbroker Bill Shorten doesn’t get what he thinks is rightfully his… the leadership because of Rudds membership vote rules, I wonder if he’ll make a “captains pick”, sack Albo and make himself dear leader by getting caucus to scrap the Rudd leadership rules.
[Psephos
…….
Yes, look at Abbott]
Actually, after all the premature exclamations of the previous 3 years, it is quite possible that we have now seen “Peak Abbott”.
Lets see whether he is up to the challenge….he appears to have been up to this point.
[Mod Lib
Posted Thursday, September 12, 2013 at 9:28 pm | PERMALINK
Bugler
…….Goodness knows how she did it.
By never answering a question in her life…]
Not true! she answered every question blaming Mr No.
@Rummel/1072
Which is a mistake, because they got less than 100 days to fix stuff – suppose have anyway.
Psephos @ 1065
I don’t care what faction they are from.
Candidates should be judged on their merits, don’t you agree?
Psephos:
Yes, very despairing.
Will Abbott go artound Mesma and send Peta to Indonesia to sort this mess out?
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/we-will-reject-abbotts-policy-on-asylum-seekers-indonesia-foreign-minister-marty-natalegawa-20130912-2tmkw.html
Mod Lib. So what’s your view on Abbott’s ability to answer a question? Yes he’s about to be PM now, but the Riley nodding 40 second stare will remain etched in my memory. What a brilliant answer to the question! But he’s your man. He won. Maybe that’s all that matters now.
[Mod Lib. So what’s your view on Abbott’s ability to answer a question? Yes he’s about to be PM now, but the Riley nodding 40 second stare will remain etched in my memory. What a brilliant answer to the question! But he’s your man. He won. Maybe that’s all that matters now.]
Modlib,
It must be cruel when you reflect on the fact Labor was beaten by Abbott :devil:
Windhover
Posted Thursday, September 12, 2013 at 8:46 am | PERMALINK
It is to be hoped that Albo doesn’t run for LOTO and that Labor can quickly unite behind Shorten. There is no long-term harm in a bit of venting at this stage – eruddication is a necessary but not sufficient step to renewal. And eruddication will take time.
————-absolute partisan nonsense.
everything that follows on shorten is nonsense
as with gillard, the public are not with shorten. noone understand why a union rep is being imposed on the party yet again
bad look
your rudd comment is defamatory as are piles of labor comments in this regard. you should be thanking rudd
wasn’t shorter a key backer!!???
no one has explained why shorten is being considered at all
but more pertinent noone has explained here at least or anywhere why rudd is not staying as leader
this is how members of public see it – but once again great australian labor party has mind of its own that seems determined absolutely to fail, and allow ‘tories’ victories they dont deserve
so why is rudd not staying on as leader? – his resignation was more disappointing than election result
SOrry WIlliam but Martin Zaiter is doing much better in Parramatta now the postals are being counted. He is now only 389 behind. If the trend continues he will win by a couple of hundred at least. Quite right too. The ALP indulged in outrageous lies in their posters and a smarmy negative campaign. What’s worse they manufactured a false atmosphere of having many helpers by paying foreign backpackers to hand out HTVCs
Does left/right in the ALP actually reflect any kind of ideological difference these days?
Psephos@1065
It is even more intriguing how the right can be manipulated and controlled by the likes of Obeid.
What would his support be in the rank and file, even on the right?
It would be a shame if the ALP overlooked a capable female out of fear.
A female installed in the leadership in what people perceive as the ‘right’ way, may well be the perfect counter weight to Rabbott.
[Candidates should be judged on their merits, don’t you agree?]
“Merit” includes many things, including positions on issues. I don’t care how telegenic a candidate is, if they want to take the party to the unelectable left, I’ll oppose them. (That’s not a comment on Albanese or Plibersek.)
Boerwar@1066
Piss off and worry about your own party of fools.
Psephos i think the question is a slightly different one. It was more about how real,the ideological divide between the left and right is? Is it as big as the divide within the right itself in Victoria? Just asking!
feeney@1069
But while she demolishes idiots like Dutton and Richo, she continues to exude loads of feminine charm. She is incredible!
feeney @ 1053: I don’t see (now) Senator Dastyari’s name on any list of candidates. He was appointed by the NSW Parliament. It will be interesting to see if Senator Carr – number 1 on the ALP ticket – makes it through to 1 July next year, or quits before then: a bit like hitting your wicket as the bowler starts his runup. My point is that many more voters may be ticked off at the thought of voting for a Carr and getting a Howse than are worried about having voted for a micro-party and elected someone from another micro-party.
[SOrry WIlliam but Martin Zaiter is doing much better in Parramatta now the postals are being counted. He is now only 389 behind.]
Yes, I should probably add an update to that.