This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.
In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.
Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.
Just remember this, folks:
Abbott has promised ‘No surprises, No excuses.’
This will go down as the Mother of All of Abbott’s Lies.
Rudd is handed the leadership by his Labor troops…
Like the brilliant strategist he so obviously thinks he is …his first act in the final battle of the war …was to stroll nonchalantly into Lib HQ ….and re-load Abbott’s his most potent & preferred weapon of mass distraction …
In a real war, Rudd would have been taken outside by his own side, and summarily executed for treason…
UN….F**KING….BELIEVABLE!!!!
[In the same week serious doubts have been cast on Abbott’s policy on climate change (evidence is it is real), economics (Nobel laureatte Stiglitz says recession risk is real) and border protection (Indonesia says shop the boats is an insult). Yet the media heat is still on Rudd, even after he fronts up to be grilled on QandA, while Abbott hides from questions like a grown up Jamie Diaz!]
Well said Socrates. The media fix is a disgusting assault on our democracy.
If Abbot wins, it will forever be a stain on his legitimacy: the installed man. Murdoch’s Muppett.
He wasn’t that disciplined, and didn’t run a good campaign either: the media just didn’t apply any pressure.
Fairfax is part owned by Rhinehart these days. Mouthpieces for magnates and their self interest.
vic and kezza
Interesting that we’re becoming acclimatised to “it’s not really hot until it’s at least 35 deg”. 🙁
Boerwar@122
He will stand again in any leadership spill I think.
The question is whether caucus refuses to back him again.
Turnbull must still be thinking what might have been for him.
Bronny Bishop, Speaker – Yuk. Yuk with bells on.
howard GG – back in play as well.
dave
Turnbull may yet be PM
The seat of Kennedy the 4th most conservative seat in the country:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-04/vote-compass-left-right-electorates/4929064
Who was the dickhead here who claimed Kennedy was “naturally an ALP seat but for Bob Katter”??
You guys really are on drugs sometimes…
Bandt looking likely to hold Melbourne on leakage of LNP prefs, ac to poll into the Age
MarkJS
I seem to remember numerous polls telling us that carbon pricing had been accepted by the majority and neutralized.
Yesterday I received only my 2nd or 3rd election flyer in the letter box this campaign, from the “Australian Christians”. Never heard of them, but they don’t like the carbon tax either.
leftye,
So, it’s not all bad news then.
Vic – Yes he is hoping for abbott to fall over, one way or another.
Turnbull would be worse for Labor’s prospects if he became tory leader again.
Three more sleeps and it will/may be over.
markjs
No doubt the strategy will be thoroughly analysed after the election, but there will be at least two streams of thought. Meanwhile, most of us are holding our fire.
Howard convinced Turnbull to hang around because he thought Rabbott was going to fail.
dave
Indeed
davidwh,
It’s never over.
Dave
After three years of wrecking the House Joint, Abbott will come in and save Australia with calm, peace and gravitas.
Ms Bishop will be as stern, with the Liberals in full control, as the Labor speakers were weak in allowing Abbott free rein in the House.
It’s a gimme.
bluepill
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:28 am | Permalink
Labor makes its usual errors:
1. Treating the electorate as mugs as they lie through their teeth.
2. Underestimating Abbott.. about to despose his third ALP PM in four years.
3. Failing to admit that its electoral woes are largely its own fault.
very true, discraceful stuff. People can’t wait to September 7!
dwh
Abbott will finally stop AGW in its tracks starting on Saturday.
No surprises, No execuses.
lizzie @95
Our local “conservatives” certainly tick all the boxes.
[those conservative traits identified by Hatemi: “…more focused on out-groups, more authoritarian, more militant, punitive and retribution-minded”.]
This made me shudder from Corbett.
[Fairfax chairman says Tony Abbott is “a very sincere, nice type of human being”.]
The last time a Katter didn’t run for Kennedy (1990) it was held by the ALPs Rob Hull . Listen to Katter – he says the same thing
Old labor values were often conservative – though the nuances of that will no doubt prove too steep for your febrile mental capacities.
poroti
Conservative thinkers are also more easily frightened by scare campaigns.
So regarding AGW, they are so scared they’ve gone into denial. Sounds right, I spose.
Good morning
“@ABCNews24: Coming up in the next few mins, Deputy PM @AlboMP to speak to the media about rollout of the #NBN in Melbourne http://t.co/3YXdj7UeVK”
Rudd has admitted Abbott was right about the boats.
Rudd has admitted Abbott was right about the Carbon Tax hitting families for $550 a year
Rudd has admitted Abbott was right about the NSW Labor Party being a corrupt organisation
Rudd has admitted Abbott was right about Mike Quigley and the NBN by sacking him
Rudd has admitted Abbott was right about Gillard being a terrible Prime Minister by rolling her
Rudd has admitted Abbott was right about Conskis
Rudd has admitted Abbott was right about having a Northern Australia plan
Why then in hells name would anyone vote for Rudd and the incompetent Labor Party if they have admitted everything Abbott has ever said was correct?
Senator Milne is dead right about the Corbett comments last night.
@corinne_grant: I’ve been taking the piss out of the libs on this for ages-didn’t think they truly believed it. morons http://t.co/NpqzjK2ayx via @thehoopla
Greg Jericho @GrogsGamut
Abbott in Dec 2007: “Nelson is right to resist the intellectual bullying inherent in talk of “mandates” ” http://tonyabbott.com.au/LatestNews/ArticleswrittenbyTony/tabid/87/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/6890/OPPOSITION-TOO-HAS-PROMISES-TO-KEEP.aspx … ]
Oh dear
“@HeathJAston: Liberal for Chifley Isabelle White has repeated Fiona Scott’s line that refugees are clogging the motorways. Said on Triple M #AusVotes”
Bluepill at 39:
[A key difference between both major parties appears to be the degree in which they admit their own policy errors being out of kilter with the electorate.]
You are a bit confused here, if you do not mind me pointing it out. Are you suggesting, as you seem to be, that major party policies are “errors” if they are out of kilter with the electorate? If so, presumably for you the only metric for success for a political party is the extent to which it follows the popular vote rather leading policy discussion. This is the sort of proposition that need only be stated to be rejected. But if you are not suggesting this, what else could you mean.
[A Carbon Tax/Carbon trading model was seen as amongst the least economically effective methods of abating global CO2 emissions in Copenhagen,]
Really? What economic research do you rely on for this – or is it just your “feel” of the vibe.
[Europe’s ETS was not travelling well and then Gillard imposes a tax against stated commitment in the 2010 campaign not to.]
Please, your grasp of facts is not your strong point, is it.
[ The Australian people oppose a Carbon Tax to identical levels (often greater than) similar polls on Workchoices legislation in 2007.]
And, assuming you are right, so what? Does this make it right? If you think the majority views of your fellow Australians is always right you are most singular in that regard.
[Yet the ALP stubbornly refuses to consider that it read the electorate poorly and that the change in the political climate against Labor is, in part, this resistance of the electorate to that tax and the way it was introduced.
In contrast, the coalition admitted a bridge too far with WC and capitulated in the senate.]
If the coalition believed/s that workchoices was the right policy setting for Australian industrial relations then the coalition should be campaigning for its introduction.
In relation to pricing carbon, one of the most important considerations guiding Gillard was the need to create consensus over its introduction for the simple reason that certainty of policy settings would create the most stable investment environment and enable best outcomes to be planned for and achieved by carbon polluters. This was one of the reasons why, before the 2010 election, Gillard sought the citizen convention. Post the election, having regard to minority government, Gillard agreed to relace that idea with a multiparty committee to which all parties could contribute. This was done to honour her pre-election commitment to price carbon.
It is a matter of record that the multiparty committee proposed the course that is now legislated for. Maintaining the status quo of keeping a price on carbon is essential to creating a proper investment environment. That the Libnats have been screaming banshees in their contribution to a mature development of carbon policy is also a matter of record.
[Make no mistake.. if Abbott goes to DD, since his very political reputation in the electorate depends on it. The public will continue the flogging started this Saturday at being dragged back to the polls solely because of ALP belligerence.
I hope we do have a DD on the issue. It will destabilise the ALP even further and the wave of conservative sentiment will clean out the senate nicely.]
Like you, I think it is inevitable that Abbott will call a DD if he is not able to remove the current carbon pricing legislation. If he gets the numbers he wants at a DD then, unhappy as I would be with that result, I would fully accept the democratic outcome. Until then Abbott and his ridiculous direct action fraud can get stuffed.
ABC still carrying Corbett’s crit of Rudd as if it is news!!
carrying should be repeating.
I find it hard to believe and questionable that in Queensland and WA that Liberals have such high numbers.
Here we have two states where the Liberal Governments have lied, broken promises, sacked education and health staff, given jobs to mates and generally treat the public with an arrogant disdain by making glib insulting comments when challenged on their broken promises and back flips.
Two Liberal states that have had press cover of their slashed spending on education and health etc
After having first hand experience at being treated like morons by the Liberal Governments –
Are people really that dumb that they would still vote Liberal?
lizzie
Both streams of throughs are correct, both Julia and Kevin was bad PMs 🙂
Just finished watching Q and A now…haha
It’s almost embarrasing….It seems that everyone is against rudd now, even Tony Jones had a crack at Rudd haha!
Counting down the days !!1
In Canberra various roadside signs have been vandalised according to the radio this morning. I saw a sign for Gai Brodtmann broken close to a newly installed sign for Zed Seselja. No Liberal supporter would deliberately wreck a Labor sign, would they?
“@suemazzy1: @sortius @ABCtech @SteveJ_CBR @LucyBattersby Time to check out where the rental properties with nbn are before the rush & rental increase”
Windhover
Bluepill relies on the wisdom of Alan Jones.
Albo presser now
Boerwar@168
Yes looks very much like it.
The only thing is the “Events – Dear Boy, events” aspect.
Abbott will run out of rope at some stage, its a matter of when and how.
In the meantime Labor has to take its medicine and be prepared.
The electorate have all but bought their tickets and have their ride to take.
“No Surprises, No Excuses” indeed. Fate quietly slipping the lead bars into the boxing gloves somewhere.
Will the first death as a result of hitting a Fraudband street corner cabinet result in a campaign against the Abbott govt?
Guess!
@MayneReport: Fabulous Get-up ad sledging Murdoch’s propaganda crap now up to 265,000 views on Youtube. Ya can’t ban the net: http://t.co/kIXZSZycwO:
lizzie@182
I hope abbott sinks the boots into the ABC as well.
@ABCNews24: “We need to do it right, do it once and do it with broadband” – Deputy PM @AlboMP live now talking #NBN http://t.co/3YXdj7UeVK #ausvotes
IF Abbott wins on Saturday we are going to have morons in Parliament that;
Cant articulate their own Party policies
Believe that asylum seekers cause traffic jams
Believe that by passing SSM legislation it will lead to people wanting to marry animals
Who think nothing of insulting the leaders of other nations
[Howard convinced Turnbull to hang around because he thought Rabbott was going to fail.]
That’s interesting.
Abbott certainly is a slodier of fortune. Sneaks in by 1 vote. Then they keep him because of the alp’s consistently bad polls. It is remarkable that he’s still there.
citizen
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:40 am | Permalink
In Canberra various roadside signs have been vandalised according to the radio this morning. I saw a sign for Gai Brodtmann broken close to a newly installed sign for Zed Seselja. No Liberal supporter would deliberately wreck a Labor sign, would they?
—————————————————
Possibly Sean and his baseball bat
citizen
Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:40 am | Permalink
In Canberra various roadside signs have been vandalised according to the radio this morning. I saw a sign for Gai Brodtmann broken close to a newly installed sign for Zed Seselja. No Liberal supporter would deliberately wreck a Labor sign, would they?
Your assuming it was a liberal supporter?
Probably another disgruntled Labor supporter, apparently a Labor helper handing out signs in Rudds own seat was heard saying she hates Kevin Rudd. Hilarious….
Windhoven said
“In relation to pricing carbon, one of the most important considerations guiding Gillard was the need to create consensus over its introduction for the simple reason that certainty of policy settings would create the most stable investment environment and enable best outcomes to be planned for and achieved by carbon polluters. This was one of the reasons why, before the 2010 election, Gillard sought the citizen convention. Post the election, having regard to minority government, Gillard agreed to relace that idea with a multiparty committee to which all parties could contribute. This was done to honour her pre-election commitment to price carbon.
It is a matter of record that the multiparty committee proposed the course that is now legislated for. Maintaining the status quo of keeping a price on carbon is essential to creating a proper investment environment. That the Libnats have been screaming banshees in their contribution to a mature development of carbon policy is also a matter of record.”
Lets not “bullshit” anymore, most Australian knew what happened
Julia did not want a Carbon tax, Julia told Kevin to drop the ETS (KR told us). Julia was told by the Greens, that their support after 2010 hinges on her accepting a carbon tax (the greens glouted). Julia could have called the Greens bluff and told them to support Abbott if they want, she did not.
Julia had a “multiparty committee” controlled by the Greens, independants and ALP, while being opposed by the LNP. so there was hardly any concessus. I could have told you what the result was prior to the committee was set up