ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

A new ReachTEL poll offers Labor some vague encouragement, and concurs with Morgan and Essential in having Clive Palmer’s party at 4% nationally.

This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.

In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.

Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,993 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 38 of 40
1 … 37 38 39 40

  1. [You’ve got no change in WA. Does this mean you think Labor will hold Brand and the Nats will hold O’Connor?]

    I class Crook as Coalition because he sits with them but I’ll add that I think the Libs will get that seat back.

    As for Brand, like Hindmarsh and Lilley, it was a close call for me so I erred on the side of caution and went with the status quo but, like Lilley, if I feel the mood’s shifting further to the Coalition, it’ll be one of the first to fall.

  3. i guess when you think about it, Australia has been a great place for recession hit europeans to invest their money in recent years. Don’t know if we have a safe haven to run to though.

  4. Yes, I think the Palmer/Katter issue is indeed a wildcard.

    Greens vote likely to slump after last time’s possible peak, but these two minors have far more support than I would have expected.

    The coalition vote doesn’t appear to be dented a lot by their influence in primaries but I suspect a lot of action splitting votes for the coalition and diverting more to the ALP than currently evident in the polls.

  11. I did say Rudd should have been holding a few press conferences re Newscorpse ridiculous headlines that in the end Get Up produced an ad.

    The idea of some old dude, head of some proven corrupt newspapers trying to hoodwink Australians would have made some people think. Opportunity missed.

    Likewise a saturation message that Abbott is going to take money from retirees income.

    All I see however is saturation Liberal ads everywhere. So I gather ALP have no money.

  14. Bluepill – Generally, the poll leader leads the betting that is clear, and has been in every recent Australian election with the exception of 1993 and 1998, in the last US election Obama led on Intrade in the last UK election Cameron led at the bookies etc In the German election later this month Merkel’s comfortable poll lead is reflected in the odds 1.07 CDU/CSU (Conservatives) 7.50 SPD (Social Democrats)

  17. ReachTEL ‏@ReachTEL 5h

    @JillFavero This poll won’t be released as it was privately commissioned. We have other results coming out over the coming days though.

  19. Hmm. Had more intelligent conversations with people at the Sydney Town Hall pre poll today (including some genuine and genuinely funny conversations with Jackie Kelly, sometime Lib MP for Lindsay, handing out next to me, than most of the stuff on PB at the moment.

    I have the advantage and honour of course of working locally for Albo, hated only by tories (you know, for supporting awful things like equal opportunities).

  20. Working on a rough Bayesian-style (not that I think of myself as “a Bayesian”!) model for using a combination of projected state swings (a la Bludgertrack with individual seats modified for sophomore effects) and seat polls to predict whether seats should be expected to fall in the circumstance that:

    * seat polling projects the seat to fall
    * the seat would not be lost based on the expected state swing to Coalition assuming that swing was uniform

    OR

    * seat polling projects the seat to be retained
    * the seat would be expected to be lost based on the expected state swing to Coalition assuming the swing was uniform

    (Expected state swing may be negative eventually in the cases of Qld and WA).

    In other words, we’re much more likely to take a poll showing 60-40 to Coalition in Lindsay seriously than one showing 60-40 to Coalition in Lalor. But data should not be disregarded entirely, so suppose there was a poll showing 60-40 to Coalition in Lalor, how would we then correctly assess Labor’s chances in that seat?

    Trying to get this sorted by tomorrow night to inform my Friday prediction.

  21. But I’d argue Intrade is more sophisticated than anything we have. For example, they had Obama at 60-65% to win in places like Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada… at the same time polling had him tied, slightly ahead or slight behind. If anything, it’s like the stock-market… rather than the betting markets, which is reactive.

  24. Here’s what I’m currently seeing (and this is NOT my final prediction):

    TPP Coalition 53.3, ALP 46.7

    NSW
    Coalition seats gained (+10): New England (from IND), Lyne (from IND), Lindsay, Banks, Reid, Robertson, Greenway, Dobell (from IND), Werriwa (within 1%), Kingsford Smith (within 1%)

    VIC
    Coalition seats gained (+2): Corangamite, Deakin.
    Labor seats gained: Melbourne (from GRN).
    Independent seats gained: Indi (from LIB).
    (La Trobe within 1%)

    QLD
    Coalition seats gained (+2): Fisher (from IND), Moreton.
    (Petrie within 1%)

    WA
    Libs gain O’Connor from Nats.

    SA
    No change (Hindmarsh within 1%)

    TAS
    Coalition seats gained (+3): Bass, Braddon, Lyons.

    NT
    Coalition seats gained (+1):Lingiari
    (Solomon within 1%)

    Total: ALP 58 Coalition 89 KAP 1 Ind 2

    Most likely ALP pickups, if any: Solomon, Brisbane, Gilmore, Flynn, Macquarie (in rough order of likelihood).

  26. [Carey could Palmer’s party win O’Connor?]

    While an upset somewhere wouldn’t upset me, I am going to be cautious and say they won’t have any luck in the House.

    Likewise KAP (Except in Kennedy, of course.)

    When I can be arsed, I will try and make an educated Senate prediction too (although it probably will be prone to a bit of wild guesswork.)

  27. [Very disappointed with Alberici. She’s one of the ABC’s best interviewers these days.]

    Alberici’s a sellout like Uhlmann, Simkin and many others – they are just doing what Mark Scott orders

  30. zoidlord

    What I am saying is that you were claiming that you couldn’t use the full potential of the connection, I am suggesting otherwise.

    So it is you that claiming things.
    ———

    People can clearly ready what you have said. If you think that 1000 people on 100MB/sec connections connecting to 5 people hosting servers on 100MB/sec connection is sufficient, then you have no idea what you are talking about, as people can see in what you have written.

  31. What interests me is the Senate. I think its a likely Coalition win in the HOR.

    However a hostile Senate could mean a change in mood of voters big time as they see and feel effects of cuts. A DD could mean Labor back on Treasury benches in a year and a half or so

  32. The following is zoidlord responding to a question about sustainable bandwidth output by servers outside of Australia when they are sending data to 1000s of users on 100MB/sec connections, and what servers are capable of doing this. The comparison of zoidlords response would be like saying 1000 adsl users could all connect to 5 adsl users and all 1000 adsl users would have a maximum sustained download speed.

    Hash Convicts
    Posted Tuesday, September 3, 2013 at 11:28 pm | Permalink
    So again, what server outside of AU will output to 1000s of customers downloading at 100MB/sec and sustain this under load?
    Should be easy to answer? Unless of course….
    The response….

    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, September 3, 2013 at 11:33 pm | Permalink
    @Hash Convicts/1364
    Bittorrent, Video, Cloud Computing, Telehealth…
    Your excuse is that, we shouldn’t build it, that’s like saying we shouldn’t have kept Telstra, so sell it.
    Yet, a few years later, we now want to build it, but your guys, want FTTN which, under law, requires compensation.
    Unless you get Telstra to build it.

    So here is zoidlord claiming that NO ONE uses Rapidshare, only to claim a few posts later his friend uses it, however he claims his friend uses a Rapidshare program which allows him to host a server, people do not host servers with Rapidshare, they pay for hosting. Does this guy ever keep track of his own bs?

    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, September 3, 2013 at 11:52 pm | Permalink
    Oh dear.
    And nobody uses Rapidshare etc, because most people use bittorrent and usenet.
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 12:13 am | Permalink
    You have other software for Rapidshare etc that can make use of your connection (I have friend on 100Mbps cable that does it).

  35. 1876

    Palmer will not make any gain in the HoR outside the Gold and Sunshine Coasts (where his base is).

    Katter will not make any gains outside FNQ (unless their is a boil-over in Maranoa).

    It is all about the merger, cuts and preferences.

  37. @Hash Convicts/1880

    You are deliberately confusing the discussion, by talking about hosting, which is not related to the our local connections.

  38. So just for clarity:

    According to your logic zoidlord:

    One persons or/persons hosting 5 servers on 100MB/sec connections over bittorent, will out put enough power to sustain a constant download speed of 100MB/sec (give or take) to 1000 users, without a speed decrease.

  41. Palmer may feed a New Green into the QLD senate with current pathways and primary around 5%.

    That will piss a LOT of people off from both ALP & LNP.. let alone Palmer’s voters (the majority therein!)

  42. J341983
    Obama consistently led most of the swing state polls, by polling day he also had a small average national popular vote lead too

  43. zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    You are deliberately confusing the discussion, by talking about hosting, which is not related to the our local connections.
    ———

    Ahh local connections now? At which point were we talking about a local area network. People can see that Rapidshare was mentioned, you know that Rapidshare are hosted in the Netherlands? Which means (as people can also see) the numerous times I talked about connecting outside of Aus.

  46. @Hash Convicts/1893

    Local Network as in the last mile network.

    Broadband Infrastructure rollouts are there to upgrade the current infrastructure – the last mile.

  47. SB – I was watching every…single… poll… during that election… there was a time when the polls, notably after the first debate, were NOT in his favour. But his intrade numbers still held – because it wasn’t just driven by polls.

  48. zoidlord

    No you started complaining about hosting situation, not local connections.
    ——–

    Are you really serious? So dispite people can see this discussion was about bandwidth output ability, and how it doesnt matter what connection you have 100MB/sec or 10/MB sec, if they do NOT have the physical capacity to sustain data transfer rate to 1000 users at 100MB/sec, then it cannot be done.

    In simple terms, if I am on dialup and you are on adsl2, you could not download from me at maximum speed. Please tell me you get this simple concept.

Comments Page 38 of 40
1 … 37 38 39 40

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *