This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.
In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.
Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.
bluepill
I don’t buy the myth that betting markets are better than polls. Precisely for reason I mentioned. Getting close an election or three is not a scientific method of measurement
9 reasons for the US to attack Syria
http://www.lewrockwell.com/2013/09/jon-rappoport/the-top-9-real-reasons/
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Kinkajou@1781
“Hot” daughters?
The Kitchen Cabinet can be okay, i couldn’t say that is is bias one way or another.
Surely Crabb isn’t 200k for the hosting role.
davidwh@1773
I have not worked on processing postal vote applications, but as far as I am aware, the voter completes the ballot and returns it by post to the AEC.
I am indeed curious about what has been raised.
I disagree about quite a few of those seats Carey… but we’ll just have to see how it lies on Sunday morning.
Tony Jones ruins what could be a good program. The prick never shuts his gob, and will interrupt if he thinks the person is going to say something that goes against his purpose on the night. Usually that is making sure labor types don’t get clear air.
Mod Lib
Hindmarsh is line ball. Currently held by the ALP.. I have it holding at this stage on the MSBM.
ModLib
There would be some seats that only have one party sending out postal applications.
What about O’Connor?
God, for a Maxine McKew type.
Exactly.
They’re my own preliminary prediction. I will revise on Friday evening, if necessary but I am somewhat confident with them.
Goodnight all.
The Coalition (CLP, LP, NP, LNP) beats the ALP in postals in 124/150 seats.
These are the seats where the ALP is winning the postals (and by how much):
NT Lingiari 17
SA Makin 37
QLD Moreton 376
SA Wakefield 449
QLD Lilley 526
QLD Blair 839
SA Port Adelaide 887
VIC Holt 960
VIC Isaacs 1001
NSW McMahon 1103
VIC Jagajaga 1159
NSW Watson 1167
VIC Ballarat 1215
NSW Fowler 1241
NSW Chifley 1251
VIC Maribyrnong 1273
NSW Page 1364
VIC Gorton 1562
NSW Charlton 1587
NSW Hunter 1596
VIC Calwell 1639
NSW Throsby 1666
NSW Shortland 1807
SA Kingston 1908
SA Adelaide 2613
QLD Oxley 2658
Bemused
Read the link to the AEC FAQI provided above – it clearly statss political parties can provide pv applications AND receive them back – that is, give an envelope with their address not themAEC
They then have a legal obligation to pass to the AEC
and just a comment on Facebook, not a lotta love there for Tony Abbott. Serious campaigning going on with the younger demographic, ALP with Green prefs in a landslide from what I’ve seen.
I was and the data I’ve been looking at points to it currently but my gut tells me it’s on the cusp of flipping to a Coalition favourite (if not already).
My predictions will be finalised on Friday afternoon – but they’re not as ‘pessimistic’ for the ALP as yours.
Well, I reckon you are pretty much on the mark Carey!
Fran b thanks and good luck however the collective pronouncing pseudo partisan voice ‘we’ of last and some earlier emails tupifies why I at least left this so called grass roots party and will not return. It has had toxic effect
I will confess the two seats that were virtually a coin flip were Hindmarsh and Lilley. In my current prediction, I see Hindmarsh being the most marginal Labor seat and Lilley the most marginal Coalition one.
Either or both could change by Friday (at least one probably will)
…I mean, they’re not in any way good, lol.
…although I still reckon Bandt wins
ModLib
There are some interesting seats not on that list with several safe ALP seats not listed.
Do we think the ALP will lose any of those.
Other way round, I meant.
CM – I think that’s plausible…
This could be a good sign. IF Assad falls Russia will probably help for him to see justice over WMD to avoid more military action in Syria. That way new government may not be hostile to Russia
“@BrahimiUN: According to Russian Ambassador in Damascus, Asma al-Assad, the President’s wife, has fled to Russia with two sons.”
I am not making anything much of the data at all, other than it being interesting, and that I would much prefer to have twice as many postal votes coming from my side than the opposite side.
It all depends on past experience, individual seats, how much money each party is spending in that seat and the seat demographics (are there lots of folks on big salaries who are always away on the weekend) etc etc.
I just don’t remember the Libs having a huge lead on postals in the past, usually it is the incumbent side with the postal lead from my memory…
In SA I can report the ALP Left are very pessimistic about hanging onto Hindmarsh, and Labor Right are saying it is tight as in Adelaide, where Kate Ellis is in a cliffhanger finish with Liberal Carmen Garcia. No other changes in SA.
My guess is that the Libs will win a lot of marginals by a little, but some safe ALP seats may stay OK so Libs will have an inflated majority in HoR.
Guytaur
Sure, you have turned to belief, now and I understand your scepticism. I was once but realise that there are clear reasons why the MSBM (let’s be clear: and ONLY this betting market, not the rest) are excellent predictors of outcomes.
In 2010 my modelling showed not only the hung parliament (scoffed regularly here) but the seat fall within a single seat. Not just for the winner but ALP: LNP:GRN:KAT:TWI:ROA
In 2011, the modelling was within 2 seats of the 89 seat parliament for QLD. No other measure achieved these. Other data is not on hand but Rudd’s in 2007 was within 5 seats but I was only using Sportingbet at that stage, because (i think) it was the only one at the time with all seats open.
You can believe what you want but I am continuing to watch the development of this measure. Polling organisations are not currently particularly good at predicting the seat outcome because they usually rely on the ‘blunt instrument’ of TPP polls with the Mackerras Pendulum and the fundamental assumption of uniform swings is notoriously inaccurate.
By contrast, Margin seat polling still generally has much smaller samples and are done less frequently, so even a cumulative poll has issues (date of poll compared to election day and larger MOEs). In fact an MOE of even 2% on accumulated samples is, often, higher than the margin for the closest 15 seats!! Not a very reliable measure, one would have thought.
Guytaur – The betting markets simply follow the polls, it is no coincidence the last time the betting markets were clearly wrong, in 1993, was also the last time the polls were wrong too. In 1998 the polls had Beazley winning the betting markets Howard, but the polls were right in that Beazley won the 2PP it was just Howard won more marginals. If this latest Reachtel is right and the race has tightened (and don’t forget Reachtel has tended to lean slightly to the Coalition) then if further polls tomorrow and Friday also show a tightening, so will the betting markets!
FTR – I predicted a hung parliament… granted I was going on demographics and previous elections as much as anything else.
I’m basically a Lib but I’m not as pessimistic as some here so am sticking to my 81/66/3 but wouldn’t be game to try and guess individual seats particularly in QLD. I’m pretty confidant Corangamite will change hand though 🙂
Mod Lib
I have always presumed that the sitting MP had an advantage which is why i am surprised that seats like Wills, Hotham, Scullin are not on the list
Carey
Wow, so do you really think that the coalition could realistically be in line for over 95 seats??
I still have trouble believing the MSBM I compiled this evening..
The problem with all of this postal vote campaigning is that the parties are in an arms race: it’s not at all clear that it makes a lot of difference to the outcome, but neither of them wants to risk disarming unilaterally. In the ACT, there’s now a legal requirement that postal vote applications be returned directly to the Electoral Commission there, and that’s stopped the whole silly business dead in its tracks. In all probability there’s been a high take up of the online application system among younger more computer savvy people, who everyone seems to assume are ALP voters
Absolutely. We are in 1996 mode right now. And, while a long shot, it could spread out to 1975 mode – but I doubt it.
is it true you can make money from a recession if you invest in the right sort of stuff?
paaptsef
Yes but it is a risky strategy
I think Adelaide is a moderate chance of flipping but I say it’s an outside chance. Likewise with Wakefield. But, I know it’s conservative but I think Hindmarsh will be the only one to fall. The SA ALP have ran an exceptional local campaign.
davidwh – my final LNP number is around yours with room for 2-4 more.
pedant
The internet people being young and voting goes to two things. Assumptions of age of internet users. Factcheck would probably say mostly true.
As well as internet users more likely to support NBN and nor fraud band
Simon
Peter says this too but it is not a generalisation that can be made easily nor confirmed. You can’t know what a punter makes a decision on.
Furthermore “the betting market” is not a single market any more than the stock market is a single company.
The ‘mug market” is no better than coin tossing (BTW neither are the biggest polling outfits on TPP measures).
However, the MSBM is a completely different beast and I have seen no study at all worldwide to suggest that anyone has shown a causal relationship between opinion polls and wager placing behaviour at elections..
ok thanks MB i might have a look at it.
Carey:
You’ve got no change in WA. Does this mean you think Labor will hold Brand and the Nats will hold O’Connor?
Frankly – this election is a going to be a clusterfuck… the swings will all over the place, preferences are very, VERY unpredictable. That includes quite a few variables that were not in play in 2010…
I could easily be wrong… easily. But equally, the ways things are going, a LOT of people could be.
*is going*
J34 we will sink or swim together then 😉