ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

A new ReachTEL poll offers Labor some vague encouragement, and concurs with Morgan and Essential in having Clive Palmer’s party at 4% nationally.

This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.

In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.

Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,993 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

  1. bluepill

    I don’t buy the myth that betting markets are better than polls. Precisely for reason I mentioned. Getting close an election or three is not a scientific method of measurement

  2. davidwh@1773

    Bemused the political party is shown as who lodged the vote.

    I have not worked on processing postal vote applications, but as far as I am aware, the voter completes the ballot and returns it by post to the AEC.

    I am indeed curious about what has been raised.

  3. Tony Jones ruins what could be a good program. The prick never shuts his gob, and will interrupt if he thinks the person is going to say something that goes against his purpose on the night. Usually that is making sure labor types don’t get clear air.

  4. [Carey.. sorry I might have missed a thread.. what are the results you just posted, they look interesting..]

    They’re my own preliminary prediction. I will revise on Friday evening, if necessary but I am somewhat confident with them.

  5. The Coalition (CLP, LP, NP, LNP) beats the ALP in postals in 124/150 seats.

    These are the seats where the ALP is winning the postals (and by how much):
    NT Lingiari 17
    SA Makin 37
    QLD Moreton 376
    SA Wakefield 449
    QLD Lilley 526
    QLD Blair 839
    SA Port Adelaide 887
    VIC Holt 960
    VIC Isaacs 1001
    NSW McMahon 1103
    VIC Jagajaga 1159
    NSW Watson 1167
    VIC Ballarat 1215
    NSW Fowler 1241
    NSW Chifley 1251
    VIC Maribyrnong 1273
    NSW Page 1364
    VIC Gorton 1562
    NSW Charlton 1587
    NSW Hunter 1596
    VIC Calwell 1639
    NSW Throsby 1666
    NSW Shortland 1807
    SA Kingston 1908
    SA Adelaide 2613
    QLD Oxley 2658

  6. Bemused

    Read the link to the AEC FAQI provided above – it clearly statss political parties can provide pv applications AND receive them back – that is, give an envelope with their address not themAEC

    They then have a legal obligation to pass to the AEC

  7. [Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane 3m
    On the polling numbers I’ve just seen, it’s unlikely there WON’T be a minor party senator from Qld. Senator Lazarus? Very possibly.]

    and just a comment on Facebook, not a lotta love there for Tony Abbott. Serious campaigning going on with the younger demographic, ALP with Green prefs in a landslide from what I’ve seen.

  8. [I thought you were giving Hindmarsh to ALP, Carey?]

    I was and the data I’ve been looking at points to it currently but my gut tells me it’s on the cusp of flipping to a Coalition favourite (if not already).

  9. Fran b thanks and good luck however the collective pronouncing pseudo partisan voice ‘we’ of last and some earlier emails tupifies why I at least left this so called grass roots party and will not return. It has had toxic effect

  10. I will confess the two seats that were virtually a coin flip were Hindmarsh and Lilley. In my current prediction, I see Hindmarsh being the most marginal Labor seat and Lilley the most marginal Coalition one.

    Either or both could change by Friday (at least one probably will)

  11. This could be a good sign. IF Assad falls Russia will probably help for him to see justice over WMD to avoid more military action in Syria. That way new government may not be hostile to Russia

    “@BrahimiUN: According to Russian Ambassador in Damascus, Asma al-Assad, the President’s wife, has fled to Russia with two sons.”

  12. I am not making anything much of the data at all, other than it being interesting, and that I would much prefer to have twice as many postal votes coming from my side than the opposite side.

    It all depends on past experience, individual seats, how much money each party is spending in that seat and the seat demographics (are there lots of folks on big salaries who are always away on the weekend) etc etc.

    I just don’t remember the Libs having a huge lead on postals in the past, usually it is the incumbent side with the postal lead from my memory…

  13. In SA I can report the ALP Left are very pessimistic about hanging onto Hindmarsh, and Labor Right are saying it is tight as in Adelaide, where Kate Ellis is in a cliffhanger finish with Liberal Carmen Garcia. No other changes in SA.
    My guess is that the Libs will win a lot of marginals by a little, but some safe ALP seats may stay OK so Libs will have an inflated majority in HoR.

  14. Guytaur

    Sure, you have turned to belief, now and I understand your scepticism. I was once but realise that there are clear reasons why the MSBM (let’s be clear: and ONLY this betting market, not the rest) are excellent predictors of outcomes.

    In 2010 my modelling showed not only the hung parliament (scoffed regularly here) but the seat fall within a single seat. Not just for the winner but ALP: LNP:GRN:KAT:TWI:ROA

    In 2011, the modelling was within 2 seats of the 89 seat parliament for QLD. No other measure achieved these. Other data is not on hand but Rudd’s in 2007 was within 5 seats but I was only using Sportingbet at that stage, because (i think) it was the only one at the time with all seats open.

    You can believe what you want but I am continuing to watch the development of this measure. Polling organisations are not currently particularly good at predicting the seat outcome because they usually rely on the ‘blunt instrument’ of TPP polls with the Mackerras Pendulum and the fundamental assumption of uniform swings is notoriously inaccurate.

    By contrast, Margin seat polling still generally has much smaller samples and are done less frequently, so even a cumulative poll has issues (date of poll compared to election day and larger MOEs). In fact an MOE of even 2% on accumulated samples is, often, higher than the margin for the closest 15 seats!! Not a very reliable measure, one would have thought.

  15. Guytaur – The betting markets simply follow the polls, it is no coincidence the last time the betting markets were clearly wrong, in 1993, was also the last time the polls were wrong too. In 1998 the polls had Beazley winning the betting markets Howard, but the polls were right in that Beazley won the 2PP it was just Howard won more marginals. If this latest Reachtel is right and the race has tightened (and don’t forget Reachtel has tended to lean slightly to the Coalition) then if further polls tomorrow and Friday also show a tightening, so will the betting markets!

  16. I’m basically a Lib but I’m not as pessimistic as some here so am sticking to my 81/66/3 but wouldn’t be game to try and guess individual seats particularly in QLD. I’m pretty confidant Corangamite will change hand though 🙂

  17. Mod Lib

    I have always presumed that the sitting MP had an advantage which is why i am surprised that seats like Wills, Hotham, Scullin are not on the list

  18. Carey

    Wow, so do you really think that the coalition could realistically be in line for over 95 seats??

    I still have trouble believing the MSBM I compiled this evening..

  19. The problem with all of this postal vote campaigning is that the parties are in an arms race: it’s not at all clear that it makes a lot of difference to the outcome, but neither of them wants to risk disarming unilaterally. In the ACT, there’s now a legal requirement that postal vote applications be returned directly to the Electoral Commission there, and that’s stopped the whole silly business dead in its tracks. In all probability there’s been a high take up of the online application system among younger more computer savvy people, who everyone seems to assume are ALP voters

  20. [Wow, so do you really think that the coalition could realistically be in line for over 95 seats??]

    Absolutely. We are in 1996 mode right now. And, while a long shot, it could spread out to 1975 mode – but I doubt it.

  21. I think Adelaide is a moderate chance of flipping but I say it’s an outside chance. Likewise with Wakefield. But, I know it’s conservative but I think Hindmarsh will be the only one to fall. The SA ALP have ran an exceptional local campaign.

  22. pedant

    The internet people being young and voting goes to two things. Assumptions of age of internet users. Factcheck would probably say mostly true.

    As well as internet users more likely to support NBN and nor fraud band

  23. Simon
    [The betting markets simply follow the polls]

    Peter says this too but it is not a generalisation that can be made easily nor confirmed. You can’t know what a punter makes a decision on.

    Furthermore “the betting market” is not a single market any more than the stock market is a single company.

    The ‘mug market” is no better than coin tossing (BTW neither are the biggest polling outfits on TPP measures).

    However, the MSBM is a completely different beast and I have seen no study at all worldwide to suggest that anyone has shown a causal relationship between opinion polls and wager placing behaviour at elections..

  24. Frankly – this election is a going to be a clusterfuck… the swings will all over the place, preferences are very, VERY unpredictable. That includes quite a few variables that were not in play in 2010…

    I could easily be wrong… easily. But equally, the ways things are going, a LOT of people could be.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *