ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

A new ReachTEL poll offers Labor some vague encouragement, and concurs with Morgan and Essential in having Clive Palmer’s party at 4% nationally.

This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.

In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.

Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,993 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

  1. [There are those outside the seat of Macquarie who would think that it’s a fairly quiet seat – most of it is in the Blue Mountains, Vote Compass dubs it the second most left leaning Liberal held seat in the country. There are, however, darker forces at work in the campaign. Louise Markus, the existing Member for the seat, will be in trouble on election day. This is due partially to her living in Riverstone, which is in Greenway, her former electorate – which was redistributed as a Labor seat after the 2007 election. When she won Greenway in the 2004 election, it was a bitterly fought campaign, where Liberal supporters allegedly used the Muslim religion of Labor candidate Ed Husic against him. There are many parochial residents of the Blue Mountains who have not appreciated having a local member who isn’t local. Her campaign, too, has followed along similar western Sydney lines as the campaigns of Lindsay, Greenway and the rest, with Contracts and letters with little detail and local commitments included in them. This provides a problem in a seat with a different socio economic makeup than those seats.]
    http://ausvotes2013.com/2013/09/05/homophobiaaggressionfacebookbattlemacquarie/

    Some very unsavoury reports of Markus, her campaign, and her followers. Markus is the sitting member, so a bit difficult to shove her in the closet with Diaz and others until Sunday.

  2. guytaur

    Hash

    I will butt in briefly. Local Mirrors

    As you were
    ——-
    Of course, but this is negating local mirrors and assuming that (as most people do) connect outside of Aus to recieve their warez.

  3. Zoidlord 1867 I think that ReachTel referred to a private Tasmania poll that is not being released publicaly. Tomorrow morning I think will be a national poll.

  4. 1891

    Palmer may well get more that 5%. His party is currently polling 7-8% in Qld. It also gets better preference flows than the Greens.

    It is outside Queensland that Palmer is a reasonable possibility to help the Greens. Particularly SA and the ACT.

  5. The other thing I’ll note … while exit polling is a pretty new element in our elections, having nearly 30% already having voted … will make those EP numbers almost meaningless

  6. zoidlord

    Then you go to someone who guarantee’s bandwidth right? It’s called SLA agreements.
    ——-

    So which server host do you know, that supplies warez to 1000s of users over sees, that will not buckle under the load of 1000s of users on 100MB/sec?

  7. [Ohhhhhh, Lateline saying they were not aware Corbet was a long time member of the Liberal party.]

    absolute crap – and if it is true it just shows their utter incompetence. Alberici admitted they had been pursuing him for days to appear – why – he is well known as an arch critic of the Government.

    ABC are trying to cover their arses but their shiny cheeks are on display for everyone to see.

  8. Simon:

    I think PUP has a better chance of picking up a lower house seat in Qld than in WA.

    There is saturation Liberal and to a lesser extent, Nationals campaign material here. Aside from the odd TV advert I haven’t seen much PUP stuff.

  9. Radguy

    ReHash, what is your caper?

    Why do you presume Internet users will use only one server at a time?

    Off ya go. Get some new material.
    ————

    Your kidding? This is one of the biggest issues faced by warez groups and filesharing hosts, it is the reason why they constantly upgrade to deal with the demand. Go take a look at how many times Rapidshare have needed to upgrade then get back to me.

  10. [Ohhhhhh, Lateline saying they were not aware Corbet was a long time member of the Liberal party.]

    and yet when they were made aware (if they didn’t already which I find hard to believe) they continued to promote the story with no reference to his membership.

    They are spouting lies.

  11. For those with access to the Australian, the following and one other ‘exclusive’ by Troy Bramston, have appeared.

    ELECTION 2013
    Coalition savings hit $40bn
    BY:DAVID CROWE, NATIONAL AFFAIRS EDITOR From: The Australian September 05, 2013 12:00AM

    A COALITION government would save about $40 billion over the next four years in a budget plan to be unveiled today in the hope of demolishing Labor’s claim that Tony Abbott’s cuts would tip the economy into recession.

    The plan adds a small number of savings to a list unveiled last week but stops far short of Kevin Rudd’s estimate of $70bn in Coalition cuts, one of the central claims in his campaign against a change of government.

  12. Roger Miller

    Hash, The internet is big. Really big. and growing all the time. It won’t run out of bits.
    ———
    So what your saying is, that any server host that has data demand i.e Fileserve, Hotfile, Megaupload(rip), Youtube do not have issues with data transfer and every single person on the internet can receive data from them 24/7 at full speed?

    I want to live on the internet your on if that is the case. 😀

  13. @Hash Convicts/1911

    You do research.

    Many companies provide 100Mbps or 1000Mbps connections to their boxes, but it also depends on routing, and the user ratio on that server.

    contact the companies, ask for user ratio on the seed box that your after, connection speeds, routing information between your location and there server you selected etc.

    Basically any information that may effect you getting top speed on the server.

    If you got the money, go for a Business SLA.

    What you have at your home connection really doesn’t matter, it’s the box you connecting too.

  14. @crikey/1919

    Wow are these reporters that dumb?

    Just because $40 billion dollar saving, doesn’t mean they will not hurt the voters.

    Stupid bias media.

  15. and moving the goalposts. Abbott was saying every coalition budget would be in surplus. This is clearly not the case, and undermines the coalitions whole case for being better economic managers.

  16. Okay so we believe the savings telly is $40 Billion, okay but with all the reviewed that have already been announced as being needed just how can we take this number seriously.

    Regardless whoever wins will need to make large budget cuts if they wish to achieve a surplus anytime soon. Without cuts or tax increase there will not be a surplus in the next parliament regardless who wins.

  17. Data security fail by GetUp!

    Go to:

    https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/election-2013/where-do-the-parties-stand/where-do-the-parties-stand?referring_service=twitter#accordion-module-content-7755

    Scroll down to the “View the survey response from each party by clicking the links.”

    Apart from the Coalition, which submitted a letter, the rest submitted responses on a form. There is sensitive information which is meant to be blocked out in orange: password, phone number, email address of party official. But on my browser the info displays momentarily before being blotted out – certainly long enough for me to read it all with a few refreshes.

  18. Zoidlord and all

    I didn’t expect to see anything less than drivel from the oz. I was just hanging about to see if they got first go at the costings.

    Guess they did. Nothing like this on the Age site, as yet.

  19. J341983 Although Romney held the national poll lead after the first debate, Obama still held a narrow lead in key states like Ohio which meant he would still win the Electoral College which was why Intrade still had him ahead

  20. @Hash (from previous thread!)

    “I don’t dispute the need for 100MB/sec or faster, what I am saying is there no need for it now while there are more important issues in this country to deal with.”

    Typical hand-waving to relegate an important issue to the unimportant. This is key essential infrastructure we’re talking about and any advanced economy without a serious NBN risks massive opportunity costs. Australia’s ranking on the OECD will slip significantly without a real NBN in place sooner rather than later.

    “Internet is a luxury,”

    That’s totally wrong! It’s an absolute, crucial necessity. Ask yourself what would happen to business and banking and international trading if Internet failed for weeks. What would happen to domestic businesses that rely on it? No emails? Seriously?? Are you aware that most of the recent growth in traffic (according to CISCO) is due to automated business processes?? It’s not a luxury any more than the car or electricity is a luxury.

    “my theory about server output vs achievable speed underload is correct, look it up if you wish to understand it.”

    Umm. No it’s not. Multicasting? Broadcasting? Virtual server on a cluster? The only real bottleneck is the pipe and the LNP’s pseudo-NBN does not fatten the pipe enough.

    “There is nothing stopping the Liberal NBN being upgraded,”

    Two answers:

    1. Too little too late. If it were in place now then yes, it’d be fine but to spend about a decade building it ensures that it will be obsolete as far as bandwidth goes before it’s even finished. Also, if the trunk lines feeding nodes are designed assuming relatively low bandwidth for the final run to the premises an upgrade may well mean entire new runs for every part of the NBN so it won’t be a simple node to customers upgrade. We’ll end up building the NBN twice which will cost somewhere about double.

    2. The Freeway Effect (a phenomenon known to road and comms engineers) will engender a plethora of new apps and systems on a real NBN all the sooner sooner the sooner it is built. The power of this effect has been demonstrated recently with the way mobile phone apps went nova once the phones had the capacity to support them. The first countries with FTTP will have an edge and reap the benefits in advance of the latecomers. Technological revolution …

    “but this can be done when the country is out of the mess and debt that it is in.”

    WHAT mess? The US has been in debt for about 170 years running I understand and for much of that time it’s been an economic powerhouse! Debt does not matter so long as growth is maintained and the repayments can be made. A Nobel Prize winning US economist has recently (just days ago) stated that (a) our economy is doing incredibly (enviously) well compared to most other Western economies in a post GFC world, (b) that our debt level is nothing to worry about and (c)that the jobs and expenditure slash-and-burn approach the LNP proposes risks a recession as per the UK and other countries that have tried the austerity “fix”. Right now we still have growth (albeit modest) and unemployment is about 5% and our debt is sustainable. WHAT mess?

    I suggest you stop believing the right-wing storybook and start reading and listening to comms engineers and economists.

    Never thought I’d see the day in Australia when a major political party would become staunchly anti-science. I think Oakeshott’s parting comment about extremists on the fringe becoming mainstream might unfortunately be an accurate assessment of the last few years in Federal politics.

  21. If anyone’s bored and wants to test my observation in #1933 I’d be interested to know if the same thing happens with other PDF viewers.

    My results so far:

    * Firefox 23 inline PDF viewer: information can be read
    * Nuance PDF viewer: the information flashes but too quickly to read
    * Chrome inline viewer: information loads pre-blotted
    * Internet Explorer: link crashes browser (ha, ha)

    Frank Calabrese advises that on Tracker PDF X-Change Viewer the blotting works.

  22. Interesting, Zoidlord.

    Maybe a promise that has been replaced by the more nebulous (don’t think I’m too sure on this) 3% increase on current levels (??)

  23. Mark Riley @Riley7News

    Just got latest 7News/ReachTEL national poll taken tonight. Numbers shifting sharply in final days. Which way? Watch @sunriseon7

  24. Im going:

    LNP 83
    ALP 64
    GRN 1
    KAP 1
    Wilkie 1

    I might adjust this on Friday evening, but thats how I see it now. My presumptions are based on LNP 52.4 2PP – but I also achieved that same result state by state, with ALP winning Solomon, Brisbane and Forde.

    ALP and GRN hold the senate (at least 38, possibly 39).

    Actually, playing with the Senate calculator makes you realise one salient point: a lot of scenarios see minor right parties coming up at the expense of a 3rd LNP in certain states. Very few see the ALP + GRN failing to get three. Maybe QLD only: which would still give them 38.

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