Mark Kenny of Fairfax reports the latest Nielsen poll, conducted from Sunday to Thursday from an unusually large sample of 2545, shows the Coalition leading 53-47, up from 52-48 in the previous poll a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 35%, the Coalition is up one to 47%, and the Greens are steady on 10%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister is down in the poll from 50-42 to 48-45. Rudd’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, his approval down five to 43% and disapproval up four to 51%, while Abbott’s are stable with approval down one to 44% and disapproval steady at 52%. Full tables including state breakdowns from GhostWhoVotes.
Then there are these local polls:
• Yesterday’s Lonergan poll of Griffith just got a little less fanciful with Newspoll publishing a survey of 500 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which corroborates its finding on both two-party preferred (Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson leading Kevin Rudd 52-48) and the primary vote (48% for Glasson and 37% for Rudd).
• There is also a combined Newspoll result from 1382 respondents covering eight LNP-held Queensland marginals (Brisbane, Forde, Flynn, Longman, Herbert, Dawson, Fisher and Bonner) showing the LNP ahead 60-40, suggesting a swing of about 7.5%. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (compared with 36.5% in the relevant seats in 2010) and 54% for the LNP (45.6%), with Tony Abbott leading as preferred prime minister by 49-39.
• ReachTEL automated polls of about 550 respondents from each of Tasmania’s five seats show Labor with an insignificant 50.6-49.4 lead in Franklin and well behind in Bass (58.4-41.6), Braddon (56.6-43.4) and Lyons (55.8-44.2), with Andrew Wilkie looking set to romp home in Denison with 43.7% of the primary vote.
• Nielsen also has a question on best party to handle paid parental leave has Labor leading 49% to 37% among women and 45% on 42% among men. On this point, Laurie Oakes relates Labor internal polling from UMR Research showed the Liberal scheme had 34% approval and 45% disapproval on Thursday, which exactly reversed the numbers from polling conducted just four days earlier.
BludgerTrack has been updated with Nielsen and its attendant state breakdowns together with the ReachTEL results, and it finds no let-up in what for Labor is a terrifying linear trend to the Coalition which had lift-off shortly before the election was called. It finds Labor continuing to shed seats in New South Wales, and in negative territory for the first time in Western Australia. However, the BludgerTrack endeavour is being confounded somewhat by a disparity between national and local-level polling, of which the latter is not accommodated by the model – most conspicuously in Queensland, where the BludgerTrack projection of two gains for Labor is entirely out of whack with the impression given by the headline-grabbing local polls. As Kevin Bonham notes in comments, this echoes the presidential election when Barack Obama did much better in state polling than high-profile national polls, the former of which collectively proved nearer the mark.
Despite the American precedent, I would be very wary about concluding that the glut of electorate-level polling we’ve seen recently is more likely to be correct than the major national polls, which have long established and generally very good track records. This was particularly easy to argue when the overwhelming majority of the electorate polling had been of the automated rather than live interviewer variety. However, this gets a lot harder to square now that we have Newspoll conducting a very robust-looking survey of Queensland marginal seats pointing to a swing against Labor of over 7%. By contrast, state breakdowns from national polling persist in suggesting Labor is holding its ground or better in Queensland while the game slips away from them elsewhere.
To illustrate the point, here’s a list of the Labor two-party preferred results and swings indicated in recent polling of various kinds from Queensland. As noted, it’s only the statewide polling that’s going into BludgerTrack. All results from Newspoll, Galaxy and Nielsen are live interviewer phone polling, ReachTEL, Lonergan and JWS Research are automated, Essential is online and Morgan is “multi-mode” (face-to-face, online and SMS).
SAMPLE 2PP SWING Griffith ReachTEL 05/8 702 46 -4 Forde ReachTEL 08/8 725 46 -3 Forde Lonergan 15/8 1160 40 -9 Forde JWS Research 15/8 568 40 -9 Brisbane JWS Research 15/8 607 46 -3 Eight marginals Newspoll 20/8 1382 40 -8 Griffith Newspoll 22/8 500 48 -10 Griffith Lonergan 21/8 958 48 -10 Statewide Nielsen 7/8 280 47 +2 Statewide Galaxy 8/8 800 44 -1 Statewide Morgan 10/8 743 48 +3 Statewide Newspoll 10-17/8 550 46 +1 Statewide Morgan 17/8 876 46 +1 Statewide Lonergan 18/8 345 48 +3 Statewide Nielsen 20/8 504 45 0 Statewide Essential 27/7-17/8 741 49 +4
145
I am sure that Abbott`s PPL will not be in single cheque form. It will probably be in fortnightly increments.
feeney @136
What part of “if it bleeds, it leads” don’t you get?
[quote]why was the neilsen conducted monday and tuesday , and not this weekend like it normally is[/quote]
They usually release results on Monday when polls taken on a weekend. The reason they released this poll early is they would have started polling right after the debate ended.
This would not have been a Mon-Tues poll.
[Their timing has been exquisite. Fairfax papers – SMH and The Age – have just erected pay-walls. ]
I don’t disagree with your premise that the G can succeed here – indeed I hope they do, and do it by producing quality output.
But as we’ve seen with the OO-Google trick and with BK’s dawn patrol round-up of predominantly SMH articles each morning, a paywall is no barrier to accessing the content.
[quote]I predict The Guardian will be a major player on the Australian media scene in the years ahead. It has a good brand name. The Snowden affair only enhanced that branding.[/quote]
It’s a good read and I agree, it will be hear for a long time to come. I’m reading it and I’m not even their target audience.
Meguire Bob, are you suggesting that Nielsen polled earlier in the week, rather than over this coming weekend, so as to avoid reporting a decline in liberal support over the week? Which presumably would be due to PPL and boat buy-back policies?
Didn’t realise polling agencies had access to time-travel technology
[Yes, but Keating didn’t have a deficit of seats to start with . Keep clutching as deluded straws]
Howard beat Beazley.
I’ve just been reading about buying back the boats. The LNP seem to think they live in the Victorian era when the sun never set on the empire..I mean please speak to the Indonesians before you start sending police and setting up village watch schemes…
Seriously, this is La La land stuff, and unfortunately it seems that most of the Australian populace also live in la la land or want to…
[quote]But never underestimate Abbott’s capacity to self-destruct. I don’t say that simply as some pipe-dream, some kind of “clutching at straws”.[/quote]
The difference between Rudd and Gillard is that Rudd also has the ability to self-destruct.
River
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 7:01 pm | PERMALINK
This would not have been a Mon-Tues poll.
———–
It would likely have been
as with newsltd polls the pro coalition media , dont tell the the facts when the polls were taken
they need to propagate the polls to help its puppett abbott, when newsltd/abbott has a bad week
and remember hockey’s smug mention of an unspecified new deal (new contact of state and citizens) for welfare – here be cuts
Morph
What attacks have there been from the females on this blog?
What union thugs went knocking on the women’s door?
Yoyoma Bones
nielsen would not have polled about this week , but if labor continues to be on the dfront foot for the next 2 weeks
Abbott continues to struggle in stopping making gaffes
The only way they can help abbott with the polls is to bring up another scandal and poll on it
Like I said before, Bob, I would love to see your reaction on Sep 7th.
Mainly because you’re very obviously in the first stage and I want to see how quickly and violently you blow through the remaining 4.
Labor won’t win while the LN-P primary is at 47%.
Compact Crank
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 6:58 pm | PERMALINK
geoffrey @129 – wrong. We don’t vote for the Monarchy. We voted against a possible undefined Republican Model and for the Constitutional Monarchy/Westminister Parliament System of Government.
The Republican Movement’s internal divisions make the ALP look like a bunch of Actuaries.
Australia is blessed with one of the longest and most succesful democracies in history and idiots want to muck about with it? – you need to make a pretty bloody good argument if you want to do that – one I have yet to see.
————– bad start to any discourse on constitutional reform. australia is blessed economically – put to stress test it would quickly fail politically. it has a colonial system of states, and a centralised media (as we know) and the only one seeking to trace its delicate demonacry are the political hounds you call leaders. the true australian tradition includes irish and english political dissenters etc etc but i suppose you nothing of that. the monarchy (with its next new born generation) is a farce in modern multi cultural australia. sorry to differ and i wont beg
What’s “LN-P”?
AussieAchmed @141
I’ll answer it in a way the rustles are accustomed to. “I am not saying they did or didn’t, I am just asking the question” . Wow, that’s easy. Guess the CFMEU thugs on Twitter were just a figment of the imagination ?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/cartoons/gallery-e6frg6zx-1111119669474
[feeney
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 6:54 pm | Permalink
If Abbott wins this election, the MSM will be all over him, overlooking mistakes, and making excuses for his broken promises and incompetence.
It will be a real News Ltd-Abbott love-in.]
Maybe. But if his silly half arsed policies and general lack of economic nous end up driving the country into recession, as some here believe will happen, not even Murdoch will be able to save him. The people might be dumb enough to vote him in on 7 September, but even the dumbest of them are smart enough to recognise when they are being royally screwed.
davidwh
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 7:08 pm | PERMALINK
Labor won’t win while the LN-P primary is at 47%.
———————————————
They arent on that though
the factual poll shows they are only 43.6%
@morpheus/168
I told you other day that looked like CFMEU was photo-shopped.
You didn’t respond back.
Haha, love Abbott’s description of Nick Minchin as “a certain type of conservative” because he opposes Abbott’s ridiculous PPL scheme.
Errr, yeah, that’d be an actual conservative, Tony. Not someone with a North Korea-style penchant for using taxpayer funds to reward the privileged few!
Is Murdoch tapping the PNG Govt phone now?
[Papua New Guinea’s migration chief says he is now happy with the PNG solution after a critical private briefing was leaked to the Australian media.
In a confidential briefing to PNG’s foreign minister last month, chief migration officer Mataio Rabura raised several concerns with the plan to send more asylum seekers to Manus Island.
Mr Rabura said tent accommodation for single males had been a major cause of trouble in the past.
“If we’re talking about 3,000, God help us,” he added.
Mr Rabura said PNG did not have the capability to assess 3,000 refugee claims.
In a statement today, Mr Rabura says his concerns “have since been resolved” and he is now happy with the implementation.
He says he is gravely concerned the briefing was leaked to The Australian newspaper and he has ordered an investigation to find the source.]
River
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 7:07 pm | PERMALINK
Like I said before, Bob, I would love to see your reaction on Sep 7th.
——————————————————-
my reaction wont be much different to what it is at the moment
MB in that case you can order the champagne.
DR Bonham, if still reading here,could you please assist us by giving your views on this question:
If any landline-phones-only poll has been conducted without a Saturday and Sunday, then how does it “weight” for worker/commuters, Thursday late-night shoppers, Tuesday Bargain night at cinemas, etc.?
Zoidlord @141
Actually it wasn’t .
On twitter. Too funny. A play on the advertisement of buying a jeep
[Lulz!
“@CMColahan: “I bought a boat”
“you bought a boat?”
“I bought a boat””]
@morpheus/177
And you can prove this how?
River
[Like I said before, Bob, I would love to see your reaction on Sep 7th.
Mainly because you’re very obviously in the first stage and I want to see how quickly and violently you blow through the remaining 4]
Bob is an optimist!
You never concede until the end siren sounds.
If the ALP lose, Bob will pick himself up, dust himself off and keep marching on.
wait to see your reaction on the 7th.
947
my say
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 6:24 pm | Permalink
unless the poll is our way don’t believe it
I don’t think aust, are that dumb and stupid
or is it only intelligent people vote alp
of course u can still have degree and just not be informed
or so rusted on the brain cannot comprehend the days since meinzies who no doubt would be turning over in his grave,
948
my say
victoria:
😆
That’s classic! I love it!!!!
[“@CMColahan: “I bought a boat”
“you bought a boat?”
“I bought a boat””]
I bought a boat!
You. Bought. A. Boat?
Yes. I bought a boat!
A boat?
YES! I bought a boat.
😆
2013 at 7:13 pm | Permalink
https://www.facebook.com/AustralianUnions?hc_location=stream
have noticed over at the Liberal Party Facebook page that they have a fun Friday afternoon regular post called “Flashback Friday!”.
They post retro pictures of Tony Abbott showing what a fun guy he is in black and white. However, there are plenty of moments in Abbott’s history that don’t seem to ever get a run.
So we thought we’d post them here to make sure there is a well rounded picture of Abbott’s history!
=========================================================
please read flashback Friday above and remember some of his slogans
there is one about picking up rubbish,, yes u and I in
in ordinary circumsances end up picking up tonys rubbish,
================================================
now I bet I know where this comes from [catholic primary school]
one thing that horrified me about my own education looking back
( suppose we could not afford cleaners at the schools never saw any}
it was you girls
can pick up rubbish in your lunch hour for that
{ what ever that was}
so tony must be still carrying this over from primary school I would say
I look back on that time I took for granted little girls out there picking up other people lollies and penny sticks left overs, mouldy sandwiches,, and old paper wrappings and worse,
then back to school
so is this where this picking up rubbish is coming from???
read it
[Tony Burke @Tony_Burke 10m
When we explained that turning back the boats would no longer work it never occurred that Tony Abbott would say: Buy back the boats. #auspol]
How different it might have been if only the ALP had the courage of its convictions and stuck with Julia Gillard!
SORRY MUST OF COPIES AND PASTED THE ABOVE AS WELEL
SORRY ABOUT THAT
GALXY ALWAYS BAD FOR US
ALSWAY HAS BEEN
WHO OWNS IT WHO PRINTS IT
THINK ABOUT IT
GOD ARE
people this stupid
no I don’t believe aust, are stupid
the pollster thing we are
and so the nasty libs return to the site.
wonder if u use NDIS of medi care
if I had my way you would nothing
confessions
This policy is so bad that it should disqualify the coalition from governing
[quote]the factual poll shows they are only 43.6%[/quote]
Translation – lefty poll shows they are only 43.6%
[When we explained that turning back the boats would no longer work it never occurred that Tony Abbott would say: Buy back the boats.] 🙂
paul keating won
7 behind
wel u all know my suspicious mind
if u poll marginal this is what u get
victoria:
By virtue of the coalition’s policies and responses to many issues of national importance over the years, they were long ago deemed unfit to hold office!
Coalition costings: excuse time is over – stop keeping Australia guessing.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/23/coalition-costings-australia-still-guessing?CMP=twt_gu
The Polls are open, people are voting and the LNP are putting this crap on the Nation.
[my say
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 7:15 pm | Permalink
wait to see your reaction on the 7th.
947
my say
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 6:24 pm | Permalink
I don’t think aust, are that dumb and stupid
or is it only intelligent people vote alp]
The ability to construct complete sentences is a marker of intelligence in our culture.
The great advantage of the Guardian is that has lots of people on its books who can actually write.
This little black duck
[
What’s “LN-P”?
]
As any Kiwi will tell you LNP is actually L&P. A legendary soft drink . Let the Flight of the Conchords explain it for you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSFCvG6curE
ESJ
How different things might have been if the Coalition had stuck to its convictions and not selected a populist DLP’er.
Still, I suppose that he knows that climate science is crap, so not all is lost.
[quote]Coalition costings: excuse time is over – stop keeping Australia guessing.[/quote]
As the polls keep showing, Australians don’t care. Why? Because Rudd didn’t release his till the last minute when he was in opposition.