Mark Kenny of Fairfax reports the latest Nielsen poll, conducted from Sunday to Thursday from an unusually large sample of 2545, shows the Coalition leading 53-47, up from 52-48 in the previous poll a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 35%, the Coalition is up one to 47%, and the Greens are steady on 10%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister is down in the poll from 50-42 to 48-45. Rudd’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, his approval down five to 43% and disapproval up four to 51%, while Abbott’s are stable with approval down one to 44% and disapproval steady at 52%. Full tables including state breakdowns from GhostWhoVotes.
Then there are these local polls:
• Yesterday’s Lonergan poll of Griffith just got a little less fanciful with Newspoll publishing a survey of 500 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which corroborates its finding on both two-party preferred (Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson leading Kevin Rudd 52-48) and the primary vote (48% for Glasson and 37% for Rudd).
• There is also a combined Newspoll result from 1382 respondents covering eight LNP-held Queensland marginals (Brisbane, Forde, Flynn, Longman, Herbert, Dawson, Fisher and Bonner) showing the LNP ahead 60-40, suggesting a swing of about 7.5%. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (compared with 36.5% in the relevant seats in 2010) and 54% for the LNP (45.6%), with Tony Abbott leading as preferred prime minister by 49-39.
• ReachTEL automated polls of about 550 respondents from each of Tasmania’s five seats show Labor with an insignificant 50.6-49.4 lead in Franklin and well behind in Bass (58.4-41.6), Braddon (56.6-43.4) and Lyons (55.8-44.2), with Andrew Wilkie looking set to romp home in Denison with 43.7% of the primary vote.
• Nielsen also has a question on best party to handle paid parental leave has Labor leading 49% to 37% among women and 45% on 42% among men. On this point, Laurie Oakes relates Labor internal polling from UMR Research showed the Liberal scheme had 34% approval and 45% disapproval on Thursday, which exactly reversed the numbers from polling conducted just four days earlier.
BludgerTrack has been updated with Nielsen and its attendant state breakdowns together with the ReachTEL results, and it finds no let-up in what for Labor is a terrifying linear trend to the Coalition which had lift-off shortly before the election was called. It finds Labor continuing to shed seats in New South Wales, and in negative territory for the first time in Western Australia. However, the BludgerTrack endeavour is being confounded somewhat by a disparity between national and local-level polling, of which the latter is not accommodated by the model – most conspicuously in Queensland, where the BludgerTrack projection of two gains for Labor is entirely out of whack with the impression given by the headline-grabbing local polls. As Kevin Bonham notes in comments, this echoes the presidential election when Barack Obama did much better in state polling than high-profile national polls, the former of which collectively proved nearer the mark.
Despite the American precedent, I would be very wary about concluding that the glut of electorate-level polling we’ve seen recently is more likely to be correct than the major national polls, which have long established and generally very good track records. This was particularly easy to argue when the overwhelming majority of the electorate polling had been of the automated rather than live interviewer variety. However, this gets a lot harder to square now that we have Newspoll conducting a very robust-looking survey of Queensland marginal seats pointing to a swing against Labor of over 7%. By contrast, state breakdowns from national polling persist in suggesting Labor is holding its ground or better in Queensland while the game slips away from them elsewhere.
To illustrate the point, here’s a list of the Labor two-party preferred results and swings indicated in recent polling of various kinds from Queensland. As noted, it’s only the statewide polling that’s going into BludgerTrack. All results from Newspoll, Galaxy and Nielsen are live interviewer phone polling, ReachTEL, Lonergan and JWS Research are automated, Essential is online and Morgan is “multi-mode” (face-to-face, online and SMS).
SAMPLE 2PP SWING Griffith ReachTEL 05/8 702 46 -4 Forde ReachTEL 08/8 725 46 -3 Forde Lonergan 15/8 1160 40 -9 Forde JWS Research 15/8 568 40 -9 Brisbane JWS Research 15/8 607 46 -3 Eight marginals Newspoll 20/8 1382 40 -8 Griffith Newspoll 22/8 500 48 -10 Griffith Lonergan 21/8 958 48 -10 Statewide Nielsen 7/8 280 47 +2 Statewide Galaxy 8/8 800 44 -1 Statewide Morgan 10/8 743 48 +3 Statewide Newspoll 10-17/8 550 46 +1 Statewide Morgan 17/8 876 46 +1 Statewide Lonergan 18/8 345 48 +3 Statewide Nielsen 20/8 504 45 0 Statewide Essential 27/7-17/8 741 49 +4
[Now the Liberals are going to spend $67 million sending Australian Police to Indonesia]
There has been an AFP presence in Indonesia for some years dealing with both people smuggling and security issues. Why not enhance it?
I do hope you let the voters know just ho wmuch you respect their judgement when it doesn’t align with yours.
====================
You can bet on it.
HJ @88 – you are most welcome to start your own media organisation – like Crikey. I wonder how much the Guardian is bleeding – I give them 2 years max in the Australian Market.
I give you the 1998 election Howard won easily with 51% I think you mean 49%.
Assuming this poll has been conducted by conventional means:
Remember, there was no Nielsen last week, so that slight drift is from Nielsen two weeks ago. Having said that, Labor are getting around a 35 percent primary vote in too many of the credible polls. I actually believe there will be a late narrowing, and that there are still some campaign pitfalls ahead for the Coalition. It is not over. But I’d have to say the most likely result certainly appears to be a change of Government. Which means, it’s all about the Senate. Looking forward to getting a look at the state breakdowns, with the much forecast plunge in Greens support just not eventuating. :devil:
[quote]Howard is a good example, his win was on the back of several hard working marginal seat members.[/quote]
According to Lenore Taylor from the Guardian, Rudd’s in trouble in the marginals.
[There has been an AFP presence in Indonesia for some years dealing with both people smuggling and security issues. Why not enhance it?]
Maybe informing the Indonesians before The Australian could be a helpful thing to do.
Murdoch
Crank,
Nah there is room in the Australian market for the guardian.
It isn’t a stand along operation but rather part of a wider media group which provides scope and structure.
@BBS/101
Doesn’t this show it does not work? If you are going to expand the situation….
It isn’t = it is
ruawake @68 – I don’t know how you can say an ALP win on 48 TPP is anything better than extremely unlikely. Unless I’m mistaken, since 1950 no party has won government with anything less than 49 TPP.
River
True that is why i don’t see how Rudd can be returned
ruawake@68
It’s possible but not likely. If it’s 48:52 the chance of Labor winning is at most a few percent.
1998 is not comparable. Howard won easily with 49% but there were a few differences:
1. He had a massive majority which gave him a lot of flexibility in which sitting seats to pad and which to sacrifice.
2. He had a massive win at the election before which gave him sophomore surges (name recognition for first-term sitting member) in a very large number of close seats.
3. One Nation preferencing strategies depressed the 2PP and probably hit the Coalition hardest in safe seats.
Speaking of 48-52, that’s where my aggregate is after Nielsen. The end of week reset tomorrow will raise the Coalition to 52.1 if no new polls before then.
mb @109 – i’m well aware of the financial structures of he Guardian and it’s parent organisation – I just can’t see them doing anything but bleed for 2 years and then they’ll be canned. Losses all through the Guardian Newspaper outlets globally – there’s only so long the cash cow can keep supporting the losers.
Saying Labor can win with 48 is the last nail in the coffin of desperation.
[michelle wollaston @mswolly 11m
Coalition Road Safety Policy: “Buy Back the Cars” #AusVotes #AusPol]
The announcement today was just a joke. I was in the car this morning when I heard Abbott’s press conference.
Smugglers’ boat buy back? Today’s Liberal party thinks the solution to every problem facing government is to spend more taxpayers’ money!
If the ALP can win on 48% 2PP from the current situation then I’m also a chance to get asked out on a date by Megan Gale – William – you are authorised to give Megan my contact details when she contacts you for them.
[Doesn’t this show it does not work? ]
Or it shows that not enough resources have been allocated to it. Of course, it is not just about how much but how the process might or does work.
[Now the Liberals are going to spend $67 million sending Australian Police to Indonesia]
Better than spending $3 Billion a year in taxpayers money running an illegals taxi service like what we now have under Labor
All options should be on the table. ALL options.
compact crank
was here long before you and will not be turning off any light … this is safe room but with a few elephants at present
That’s a bad poll, but given done of the marginal ‘results’, could be worse.
People’s minds may be made up, but pessimism is nearly always a strategic error: then you increase the risk of a capitulation style result, eg QLD.
I maintain my previous assessment that we won’t see worse than 52.5 on the day – and hopefully closer.
The true tragedy of Labor’s predicament is that such a result would actually represent a pretty good effort from Rudd.
What KB @ 114 said. 1998 is simply not comparable (nor is 1993 for that matter) simply because today we are dealing with a government which has to win from behind on seats held, not already in front.
[Labor strategists say internal polling in key seats is stronger than the published polls, but no one denies the coalition remains in front.]
My dilemma, the published polls in marginal seats seem to be crap, some do not even pass the laugh test. 5% Green vote in Brisbane conurbation is bollocks. As is Rudd losing Griffith.
So who to believe, when the Murdoch media is building the Tony has momentum theme.
I believe what people have been telling me in safe LNP land. Tony is not popular, Rudd has baggage and its a difficult choice for many.
The I can’t vote for that man (Abbott) is keeping the ALP in the chase. It will probably be enough to keep him out of the lodge.
meguire bob
you are a hero
this still doesn’t feel like last nsw election
i think lot making up mind quietly
KB @114 – few in the ALP openly admit that their successes in that period were mainly based on One Nation preference strategy of preferencing against sitting members.
PSEPHOLOGIST, Dr Kevin Bonham, debunks Chris Lonergan’s polling methodology after giving today’s silly Griffith electorate poll in The Guardian an “Award For Fishy Polling”:
Lonergan appears to be the worst offender (albeit from a small sample size) and the apparent chink in its armour is that it uses the 2010 results to scale its figures. This is a flawed method because respondents are not always honest about who they voted for last time and tend to over-report voting for the winner. Scaling in this way will then produce a result that favours the side that did not win. I have removed Lonergan from my national aggregate until it carries clear primary documentation of its national methods on its site. I am also disregarding its seat findings until such time as it is established through correspondence with actual seat results at an election that its methods are reasonably accurate.”
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au
@Sean/120
And yet we are about to embark on expansive PPL plan at a cost of $5.5 billion per year? (Regardless how it’s funded).
Budget Emergency? what is that?
roxanna
we are like russians but voluntarily and without police. remember this is the country that votes, in 21st century, to be a monarchy. even america laughed.
Sean Tisme
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 6:47 pm | Permalink
Now the Liberals are going to spend $67 million sending Australian Police to Indonesia
Better than spending $3 Billion a year in taxpayers money running an illegals taxi service like what we now have under Labor
All options should be on the table. ALL options.
—————————————————-
Arrogant s+it Morriscum didn’t even speak to the Indonesians
The war mongering Liberals are itching to find any hint of a WMD so they can send us to war – again
Dee @61
She didn’t. She apologised for the tweet going viral. I guess having trade union thugs knocking on her door probably helped her see the “light” also.
More disgusting was Messiah Kev blaming her for his inability to act like a human. But, as we have already established Messiah Kev’s can never do wrong. Fits with the ALP mantra of blaming everyone else when cornered like a rat.
Strange that the unusual female drones here who would just as quickly scream faux outrage if anything remotely could be used to attack the coalition, are now attacking another woman for letting the world know what they already knew about Messiah Kev’s superiority complex. The hypocrites have form.
114
In 1998 there was One Nation. In 2013 there are the KAP and PUP.
was neilsen poll conducted monday – tuesday if that is accurate
proof that the media driven polls are not worth worrying about
The thing I’m most disappointed about, given what now seems to be a likely Coalition win, is their poor FTTN policy, as opposed to the far superior FTTH policy of the ALP. I think this policy is seriously short-sighted on the part of the Coalition. But as far as I can tell, having FTTN doesn’t preclude FTTH from being rolled out at a later date, so hopefully a Coalition win won’t delay FTTH for much more than a decade.
@glory
Have to agree. It can happen, but generally only when a Government is defending a large majority and is able to conduct a marginal seat sand bagging effort. We saw it in the 1998 federal election, and we also saw it in the 2010 South Australian state election. The difference here being, Labor are already short of where they need to be in terms of seats.
It seems to me that to even have a chance of achieving another hung Parliament, the Labor vote would need to get back to around 38 percent. Possible still, but getting harder to see happening.
If Abbott wins this election, the MSM will be all over him, overlooking mistakes, and making excuses for his broken promises and incompetence.
It will be a real News Ltd-Abbott love-in.
52-48 to LNP in all mainland States and Tasmania and Territories max to LNP.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/calculator/?mode=regional&overall=-2.1&nsw=-0.8&vic=-7.3&qld=3.1&wa=4.4&sa=-5.2&tas=-10&act=-10&nt=-2.7&retiringmps=false&kenn=kap&deni=ind&melb=alp&ocon=lib
ALP 75 seats.
[In 1998 there was One Nation. In 2013 there are the KAP and PUP.]
They are indeed the wild cards especially in Qld.
The Guardian has positioned itself very smartly on the Australian media landscape. Gone in a couple of years as CC suggested above? No way.
Their timing has been exquisite. Fairfax papers – SMH and The Age – have just erected pay-walls. And because the product is now so very ordinary, who is willing to pay for this dross? Almost no one.
So The Guardian is attracting much of the left-liberal traffic the Fairfax papers were previously drawing – and so they are very well-positioned as viable business models for online papers begin to emerge.
I predict The Guardian will be a major player on the Australian media scene in the years ahead. It has a good brand name. The Snowden affair only enhanced that branding.
Rudeluded @93
Yes, but Keating didn’t have a deficit of seats to start with . Keep clutching as deluded straws.
morpheus
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 6:52 pm | Permalink
Dee @61
She didn’t. She apologised for the tweet going viral. I guess having trade union thugs knocking on her door probably helped her see the “light” also.
————————————————
you got evidence that trade union thugs visited her?
or you just embelishing
ruawake – you need to wake up my friend.
Yoyoma Bones
If neilsen was conducted on monday and tuesday, that it shows how ridculious these pro coalition media opinion polls are
poroti,
They just need to lose a few electrons and, voilà!
Earn less than $75k?
How do you feel about Abbott handing people more than your yearly wage in a single welfare cheque?
gloryconsequence
why was the neilsen conducted monday and tuesday , and not this weekend like it normally is
gloryconsequence
why was the neilsen conducted monday and tuesday , and not this weekend like it normally is
geoffrey @129 – wrong. We don’t vote for the Monarchy. We voted against a possible undefined Republican Model and for the Constitutional Monarchy/Westminister Parliament System of Government.
The Republican Movement’s internal divisions make the ALP look like a bunch of Actuaries.
Australia is blessed with one of the longest and most succesful democracies in history and idiots want to muck about with it? – you need to make a pretty bloody good argument if you want to do that – one I have yet to see.
i know mark kenny clims tuesday and thursday , but as we seen before that is not the case with these media driven polls they were conducted earlier
Of course Abbott is likely to win the election. Everyone understands that. This prospect has shifted from probable to highly probable in the past week or so.
But never underestimate Abbott’s capacity to self-destruct. I don’t say that simply as some pipe-dream, some kind of “clutching at straws”.
It is a realistic possibility. And far from a comfortable lead insulating Abbott against such a possibility, the hubris and recklessness this lead engenders in Abbott simply makes a spectacular implosion far more likely.
I’m not counting on it, but I reckon to discount the very distinct possibility is to pretend someone other than Tony Abbott is running for PM.