Mark Kenny of Fairfax reports the latest Nielsen poll, conducted from Sunday to Thursday from an unusually large sample of 2545, shows the Coalition leading 53-47, up from 52-48 in the previous poll a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 35%, the Coalition is up one to 47%, and the Greens are steady on 10%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister is down in the poll from 50-42 to 48-45. Rudd’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, his approval down five to 43% and disapproval up four to 51%, while Abbott’s are stable with approval down one to 44% and disapproval steady at 52%. Full tables including state breakdowns from GhostWhoVotes.
Then there are these local polls:
• Yesterday’s Lonergan poll of Griffith just got a little less fanciful with Newspoll publishing a survey of 500 respondents, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which corroborates its finding on both two-party preferred (Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson leading Kevin Rudd 52-48) and the primary vote (48% for Glasson and 37% for Rudd).
• There is also a combined Newspoll result from 1382 respondents covering eight LNP-held Queensland marginals (Brisbane, Forde, Flynn, Longman, Herbert, Dawson, Fisher and Bonner) showing the LNP ahead 60-40, suggesting a swing of about 7.5%. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (compared with 36.5% in the relevant seats in 2010) and 54% for the LNP (45.6%), with Tony Abbott leading as preferred prime minister by 49-39.
• ReachTEL automated polls of about 550 respondents from each of Tasmania’s five seats show Labor with an insignificant 50.6-49.4 lead in Franklin and well behind in Bass (58.4-41.6), Braddon (56.6-43.4) and Lyons (55.8-44.2), with Andrew Wilkie looking set to romp home in Denison with 43.7% of the primary vote.
• Nielsen also has a question on best party to handle paid parental leave has Labor leading 49% to 37% among women and 45% on 42% among men. On this point, Laurie Oakes relates Labor internal polling from UMR Research showed the Liberal scheme had 34% approval and 45% disapproval on Thursday, which exactly reversed the numbers from polling conducted just four days earlier.
BludgerTrack has been updated with Nielsen and its attendant state breakdowns together with the ReachTEL results, and it finds no let-up in what for Labor is a terrifying linear trend to the Coalition which had lift-off shortly before the election was called. It finds Labor continuing to shed seats in New South Wales, and in negative territory for the first time in Western Australia. However, the BludgerTrack endeavour is being confounded somewhat by a disparity between national and local-level polling, of which the latter is not accommodated by the model – most conspicuously in Queensland, where the BludgerTrack projection of two gains for Labor is entirely out of whack with the impression given by the headline-grabbing local polls. As Kevin Bonham notes in comments, this echoes the presidential election when Barack Obama did much better in state polling than high-profile national polls, the former of which collectively proved nearer the mark.
Despite the American precedent, I would be very wary about concluding that the glut of electorate-level polling we’ve seen recently is more likely to be correct than the major national polls, which have long established and generally very good track records. This was particularly easy to argue when the overwhelming majority of the electorate polling had been of the automated rather than live interviewer variety. However, this gets a lot harder to square now that we have Newspoll conducting a very robust-looking survey of Queensland marginal seats pointing to a swing against Labor of over 7%. By contrast, state breakdowns from national polling persist in suggesting Labor is holding its ground or better in Queensland while the game slips away from them elsewhere.
To illustrate the point, here’s a list of the Labor two-party preferred results and swings indicated in recent polling of various kinds from Queensland. As noted, it’s only the statewide polling that’s going into BludgerTrack. All results from Newspoll, Galaxy and Nielsen are live interviewer phone polling, ReachTEL, Lonergan and JWS Research are automated, Essential is online and Morgan is “multi-mode” (face-to-face, online and SMS).
SAMPLE 2PP SWING Griffith ReachTEL 05/8 702 46 -4 Forde ReachTEL 08/8 725 46 -3 Forde Lonergan 15/8 1160 40 -9 Forde JWS Research 15/8 568 40 -9 Brisbane JWS Research 15/8 607 46 -3 Eight marginals Newspoll 20/8 1382 40 -8 Griffith Newspoll 22/8 500 48 -10 Griffith Lonergan 21/8 958 48 -10 Statewide Nielsen 7/8 280 47 +2 Statewide Galaxy 8/8 800 44 -1 Statewide Morgan 10/8 743 48 +3 Statewide Newspoll 10-17/8 550 46 +1 Statewide Morgan 17/8 876 46 +1 Statewide Lonergan 18/8 345 48 +3 Statewide Nielsen 20/8 504 45 0 Statewide Essential 27/7-17/8 741 49 +4
No comment from the ALP/Union hacks on Ford announcement of cut backs due to the FBT debacle?
“Australian Licenced Aircraft Engineers Association federal secretary Steve Purvinas yesterday challenged ACTU secretary Dave Oliver to speak out against the FBT changes.
Mr Purvinas, a member of the ACTU executive said he had emailed Mr Oliver about his concerns.
“I am furious that I have not heard anything from the people who are meant to be representing auto workers when hundreds of their jobs are on the line,” Mr Purvinas said. “The ACTU should put these workers’ needs before that of their political friends.”
Oops.
The ALP can win with a 48-52 result, with large swings in safe Liberal seats it can win from 46-54.
I just wish the damn robopolls weren’t so crap in their methodology and results. Cos none of the seat polls make any sense to me.
[There’s time yet. . .
Week’s a long time in politics . . .]
I agree… Rudds going to lose his shit any day now.
He’s already cracking under pressure, the poor make up girl can tell you that.
Nemspy
Im doing the same as the opinon polling , betting markets, the poll bludger tracker , the so called opinion polling analsis
eventually the predictions will come true
@CC/51
No comment about Coalition Party not supporting the Car Industry?
[No comment from the ALP/Union hacks on Ford announcement of cut backs due to the FBT debacle?]
Car sales increased by 3% in the last year, more than GDP. What are you waffling about?
Sean
You must have missed the news, the make up girl apologised for talking crap
The Robo polls may be dodgy but the main players like Nielsen and Newspoll have a pretty good track record. The margin of error on most polls is ariund 2 to 3% (2% on this one) and I think (William would know) they nearly always get the result within that margin. All the indications are that Abbott is heading to a 1996-sized win, possibly bigger. Kevin Rudd has as much chance of being PM in a month’s time as I have. Still, there is a fight worth having. Abbott cannot be allowed to get the Senate. And Labor has to make all efforts to be in a position to make a viable tilt in 2016 or sooner. After all, the 1998, 2001 and 2004 elections were all potentially winable for Labor.
Would be delighted to be proved wrong.
ru
My confidence is waning. Labor need to pull a rabbit out of the hat
The Liberals can be thanks and congratulated for their Bi-partisan support in closing down the Pacific Solution
“1 December 2008
Government welcomes a bipartisan report on immigration detention The Minister for Immigration and Citizenship, Senator Chris Evans, today welcomed the first report of the inquiry into immigration detention by the Joint Standing Committee on Migration.
Senator Evans said he was pleased that the Committee, which includes senior Liberal MPs and the Shadow Immigration Minister Sharman Stone, has endorsed the Rudd Government’s abolition of John Howard’s inhumane approach to immigration detention.”
Sharman Stone on the ABC:
LEIGH SALES: Does that mean – sorry to interrupt, but I just want to pick up on that point. Does that mean then that we need to see the reinstatement of the TPVs, and the Pacific Solution?
SHARMAN STONE: We don’t need the Pacific Solution now, that’s Nauru Island and Manus Island, because we have the Christmas Island centre completed. A very well structured and appropriate facility for people who need to be, of course, detained very, very, so I say humanely, so they very quickly can have their identities, their security, their character and health status checked. So we don’t need alternatives to Nauru and Manus island, we have Christmas Island.
“So back in 2008 the Coalition fully supported Labor’s move to dismantle the Pacific Solution, Why ? Because PM John Howard had decided to spend $400 million upgrading the Christmas Island detention centre to a facility that would accommodate 800 asylum seekers. Why would he do that if the boats had stopped coming?
Obviously John Howard was thinking “down the track”, he knew that the Pacific Solution was unsustainable, he realised that it was only a matter of time before the Pacific Solution would have to be scrapped because it was a very expensive and extremely inhumane policy to stop the boats.”
Labor went to the 2007 election with the dismantling of the Pacific Solution as a key policy. Imagine the howls of outrage from all the Righties if they’d “broken yet another election promise”. And it wasn’t just the Left that cheered, it was the majority of Australians. The opposition supported it, News Limited editorials at the time supported it.
Why did the make-up artist apologise to Rudd?
Nemspy
If labor wins , dont worry i will be giving it more to the so called opinion polling experts who have and who are starting to call the election on these media opinion polls
Steve
Is Nielsen different from Morgan and Essential because it would not have done mobile or online?
Saying the ALP can win with 48 TPP or less is like saying they could win with just over 25 TPP. Just let them win half the seats in Australia by one vote, and let everyone else in the remaining seats all vote Coalition.
Just because it’s possible, doesn’t mean it’s likely.
Dee
She wants a career
[Tony Abbott’s industrial relations spokesman Eric Abetz has attracted internal criticism for ”freelancing” on future Coalition policy by suggesting an Abbott government would intervene in wage settlements if wage rates were too high.
Senior Liberals were aghast on Thursday when they read that Senator Abetz had granted an unscheduled interview on his party’s workplace relations laws, during which he flagged that enterprise agreements entered into by unions and employers might be struck down if deemed excessive.]
How the feck can the Opposition industrial relations Shadow Minister go freelancing Kenny? Drongo.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/liberals-ire-as-abetz-goes-freelancing-20130822-2seh8.html#ixzz2cmKVjkef
[I was talkign about labor as a whole Party ,
compared to the coalition who was a rabble]
As opposed to the Labor Party who have spent much of 2013 being a rabble.
[Just because it’s possible, doesn’t mean it’s likely.]
Winning with 48% is likely and possible.
victoria
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 6:21 pm | Permalink
Sean
You must have missed the news, the make up girl apologised for talking crap
—————————————————
Since when has the truth and honesty stopped Sean form ranting and wetting his pants??
Opinion polls usually take a while to shift. There is a week or two delay, so there is definitely still time.
34
BK
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 6:09 pm | PERMALINK
I give up!
The long campaign to dumb down the electorate has succeeded. An MSM diet of 10 second grabs and beating up of the most inconsequential issues have become the order of the day.
========================
So do I. We must be just about the dumbest country in the world. I’ve pretty well given up hope now. If we’re still losing ground after this week, what the hell does it take? 🙁
[Sean
You must have missed the news, the make up girl apologised for talking crap]
Yes I must have missed it, show me a link where she has apologised for talking “crap”
Or were you the one talking crap??
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/contradicting-reports-leave-the-car-industry-redfaced-and-out-of-pocket/story-fni0d2cp-1226702428123
Nothing new here to see.
If only the Liberals hadn’t run with several expensive campaign promises.
Dee
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national…/story-fn9qr68y-1226702470808
6 hours ago – Rudd plays down makeup artist attack. PM Kevin Rudd says he … She contacted Mr Rudd’s office and offered an apology to the Prime Minister.
If labor does win
1- The so called experts who called the election result on the media driven opinion polling will need to explain , and no make no excuses why they and the opinion polls got it wrong
Sean
Apparently she did redraw and made the lame comment that she didn’t expect anyone would notice it.
[The ALP can win with a 48-52 result, with large swings in safe Liberal seats it can win from 46-54.]
That can happen in South Australia but hardly anywhere else especially not in the Federal sphere – there are just too many variables in play.
rua
[How the feck can the Opposition industrial relations Shadow Minister go freelancing Kenny? Drongo.]
Run it up the flagpole and see …
MB
I love your passion but its been a long time since i last got an election prediction wrong (1993 federal) and i just cannot see a Rudd victory.
blackburnpseph
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 6:25 pm | PERMALINK
As opposed to the Labor Party who have spent much of 2013 being a rabble.
————–
The coalition has been a rabble since abbott knifted turnbull, the only saviour was he jumped into bed with newsltd and become murdoch’s puppet
You must have missed the news, the make up girl apologised for talking crap
So maybe she wasn’t a Liberal or Newscorp plant but was used by them. When is the Daily Telecrap (among other Murdoch suit sheets) going to apologise for talking crap?
Why don’t you anions get a life!
The make-up artist removed her facebook post because she didn’t realise how much attention it would get and business comes first.
Claiming she “apologised” however is what is referred to out in reality land as Making Shit Up
rox @71
I do hope you let the voters know just ho wmuch you respect their judgement when it doesn’t align with yours.
Pineapple headed your way.
I’m cracking the Krug Grand Kuvee if Rudd loses his seat – even if we don’t get Senate control.
mexicanbeemer
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 6:29 pm | PERMALINK
MB
I love your passion but its been a long time since i last got an election prediction wrong (1993 federal) and i just cannot see a Rudd victory.
——————————————————–
history could repeat itself 🙂
Victoria
Thanks!
Come Sept 8th, the MSM will realise that for too long they have been biased against the Government. Post the LNP victory on Sept 7th they will rectify the problem and for balance will concentrate on the Opposition for the next three years.
We are very poorly served by the MSM in Australia.
Should by some chance Labor win on September 7 it will be a Pyrrhic victory at best and there are enough examples to show that the following election will be Armageddon for them.
Evening all.
The national poll we needed, and with a reasonably sized sample.
I am still of the view that the electorate’s mind is pretty much made up.
tlbd @83
I’m a Cation at the moment – Huzzah!
Bob’s still in the first stage…
I give you the 1998 election Howard won easily with 51%.
First the Liberals are going to buy 500,00+ fishing boats from Indonesian fishermen.
Now the Liberals are going to spend $67 million sending Australian Police to Indonesia.
How many more ways can the Liberals insult the Indonesians?
This little black duck
[
Why don’t you anions get a life!]
Cos they are still looking for cations ?
[The coalition has been a rabble since abbott knifed turnbull]
If you believe that the Labor Party has been (since January 1 2013 at least) the paragon of calm, order and self governance – then you are even more deranged and delusional than I thought you were.
Sean Tisme
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 6:31 pm | Permalink
The make-up artist removed her facebook post because she didn’t realise how much attention it would get and business comes first.
Claiming she “apologised” however is what is referred to out in reality land as Making Shit Up
——————————————————
What would you know about reality?
You can’t even count and add up properly.
Still have 600 asylum seekers unaccounted for.
Re FBT on cars – what is the justification for subsidising company cars? As a plan to support the local automobile industry it’s poorly targeted to say the least. And all people have to do is fill in a log book if they use it for work.
halloween jack:
Actually I’m very curious to see how the OM will respond to the next government, esp if it is a majority govt.
Howard is a good example, his win was on the back of several hard working marginal seat members.
Can we point to any hard working local ALP marginal seat MPs that might hold.
Thinking back to 1998 i was in Dunkley and i recall the final mail out from Bruce Billson was sent out oon the Thursday before polling day focusing on local policies.
Maybe the ALP needs a similar strategy.