Highlights of week three, day two

Labor sources have been keeping themselves busy briefing journalists on a grim outlook for their party in Queensland and Victoria.

Four thereof:

• Michael McKenna of The Australian reported yesterday that “insiders from both sides of the political divide” say their strategies in Queensland are being revamped as it becomes clear that the front line runs through Labor rather than Liberal National Party marginals. The LNP now anticipates retaining its existing seats, and aspires to further snare Moreton (Labor margin 1.1%), Petrie (2.5%), Lilley (3.2%) and Capricornia (3.7%). However, contrary to the findings of last week’s automated phone polls, both sides consider Peter Beattie’s tilt at Forde (LNP margin of 1.6%) to be “hanging in the balance”. A “senior ALP insider” is quoted saying the party still has hopes for the Townsville seat of Herbert (2.2%), where Peter Beattie was campaigning on Monday, and to a slightly lesser extent for Brisbane (1.1%), where Labor started the campaign as short-priced favourites. Labor will benefit from a deal with Katter’s Australian Party that will deliver it a preference recommendation in Herbert and Capricornia, along with the less likely prospects of Flynn and Hinkler. The price of this was that Labor is directing Senate preferences to the party in Queensland ahead of the Greens.

• A Labor source quoted in The Australian today describes the party’s position in its most marginal seat in the country, the Victorian electorate of Corangamite, as “irretreivable”. Kevin Rudd is accused of being “delusional” in the seats he is targeting in the state, namely the Liberal-held Melbourne seats of Aston and Dunkley. For the Liberals’ part, party sources are quoted saying they expect to win at least three seats in the state. Tony Abbott nonetheless saw fit yesterday to promise that a Coalition government would spend $25 million over five years upgrading Corangamite’s chief attraction, the Great Ocean Road.

• The Liberals will go into the election without an endorsed candidate for the Hunter region seat of Charlton, held by Labor on a margin of 12.7% and to be vacated at the election by the retirement of Greg Combet. This follows the revelation that their candidate, Kevin Baker, had run an online forum for Mini Cooper enthusiasts on which various offences against political correctness were committed, some of the milder examples being from his own hand. Baker will continue to appear on the ballot paper as the Liberal candidate, the deadline for nominations having closed, but he has resigned as the party’s candidate and declared his campaign over.

• A key election milestone was reached yesterday with the commencement of pre-poll voting. The Victorian Greens have raised Labor’s ire by disseminating how-to-vote cards at Victorian pre-poll centres which instructed voters to determine their own preference order, in violation of a deal which has seen Labor place the Greens second on Senate preference tickets in every state but Queensland. The Greens have said an administrative error was to blame, and have pulled the tickets from circulation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,592 comments on “Highlights of week three, day two”

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  3. Morpheus I aint an accountant but most SFRs dont routinely earn 10% off their super. Most would settle for 5% in the current low interest environment. Whichever way you look at it every SFR is going to see a hit to their income as a result of PPL. And more will be eligible for a part pension as a result. There will be offsets but the clear evidence is is that the PPL will lead to an increase in gov expenditure on part pensions and a reduction in SFRs income levels. Its no surprise that there is mounting opposition to this policy from within the LNP.

  6. Morpheus

    Low interest rates don’t hurt all retirees. Companies can pay higher dividends because they are paying less interest. Therefore retirees weighted towards shares rather than fixed interest are better off.

  9. Smith decided to play a defensive shot before the ball was bowled. It was perfectly pitched for a dink to the on for a run.

  13. There seems a general belief among many that when’s costs for a company go down then dividends go up.

    In fact, in true market, lower input costs would be reflected in lower prices – profits as eternal on capital should theoretically be unaffected by such a change. Off course in a no competitive market here can be friction leading to a slight gain in profit/dividend but all in all the result should be neutral e dividend.

    Similarly when input costs go up – eg new tax – the markets response is higher prices not lower dividends (since the price of capital has to be paid.

  19. Companies will decide dividends to maximize the money in the pockets of their directors, first and foremost.

    Just check the markets when their stocks go “after dividends”.

  23. Vernula Publicus

    I don’t agree that a reduction in a company’s costs leads to a reduction in revenue.

    Generally companies charge what they can, depending on demand. BHP sells its iron ore for whatever the iron ore price is. If its costs come down, it’s profits go up.

    In theory over the long run a drop in costs would mean more suppliers are tempted to enter the market, and that brings prices down. However many markets have high barriers to entry meaning that doesn’t occur.

  27. Strange dynamic.

    The fielding team should focus on:

    Quicks to get wickets,

    Double spin to get wickets if the pitch allows,

    One end to keep down the runs and the other to tantalize.

    The Poms don’t have the artillery. Oz has the bowlers who will, come our summer.

  34. Evening all. I was delighted the public finally got a glimpse of the character of the real Tony Latham-Abbott. Like a middle aged man in speedos, it was not a pretty sight.

    I got another email from dear Brian Loughnane today urging me to download the audience app and tweak it fo Tony. So I do not think the viewer worms are worth anything.

    All of the reporting has highlighted Abbott losing his temper, and the shallowness of his answers.

  35. Labor have been winning the bulk of the policy arguments easily for the past week or so. Bowen creamed Hockey in the treasurers debate. Rudd had mojo tonight and easily beat Abbott again in debate arguments.

    I am starting to think that the online polls (EMC etc) may be the most reliable as they generally will have a lot more information about their participants to assist their quotas.

    This looks like it might be closer than appears and Labor seem to have all the momentum at the moment. Bits falling off of the Libs.

  38. I say again, if Oz wants to win test matches then we have to get away from test players honing their skills on the other short stuff.

  39. “Now Smith hits Swann for a maximum …”

    That’s 20/20 speak FB

    “There have been at least four instances in Test cricket of eight runs being scored off a single ball.”

  43. Just whle there’s a lull on the scoring … OK 2 more to Watson behind square …

    Hubby was robopolled today and when they asked about the local candidates they didn’t mention Michelle Rowland or Diaz.

    Weird.

  50. Manning leaked secrets with no justifiable cause.

    Whatshisname is in the same region. No wonder he hides from any authorities.

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