Highlights of week three, day two

Labor sources have been keeping themselves busy briefing journalists on a grim outlook for their party in Queensland and Victoria.

Four thereof:

• Michael McKenna of The Australian reported yesterday that “insiders from both sides of the political divide” say their strategies in Queensland are being revamped as it becomes clear that the front line runs through Labor rather than Liberal National Party marginals. The LNP now anticipates retaining its existing seats, and aspires to further snare Moreton (Labor margin 1.1%), Petrie (2.5%), Lilley (3.2%) and Capricornia (3.7%). However, contrary to the findings of last week’s automated phone polls, both sides consider Peter Beattie’s tilt at Forde (LNP margin of 1.6%) to be “hanging in the balance”. A “senior ALP insider” is quoted saying the party still has hopes for the Townsville seat of Herbert (2.2%), where Peter Beattie was campaigning on Monday, and to a slightly lesser extent for Brisbane (1.1%), where Labor started the campaign as short-priced favourites. Labor will benefit from a deal with Katter’s Australian Party that will deliver it a preference recommendation in Herbert and Capricornia, along with the less likely prospects of Flynn and Hinkler. The price of this was that Labor is directing Senate preferences to the party in Queensland ahead of the Greens.

• A Labor source quoted in The Australian today describes the party’s position in its most marginal seat in the country, the Victorian electorate of Corangamite, as “irretreivable”. Kevin Rudd is accused of being “delusional” in the seats he is targeting in the state, namely the Liberal-held Melbourne seats of Aston and Dunkley. For the Liberals’ part, party sources are quoted saying they expect to win at least three seats in the state. Tony Abbott nonetheless saw fit yesterday to promise that a Coalition government would spend $25 million over five years upgrading Corangamite’s chief attraction, the Great Ocean Road.

• The Liberals will go into the election without an endorsed candidate for the Hunter region seat of Charlton, held by Labor on a margin of 12.7% and to be vacated at the election by the retirement of Greg Combet. This follows the revelation that their candidate, Kevin Baker, had run an online forum for Mini Cooper enthusiasts on which various offences against political correctness were committed, some of the milder examples being from his own hand. Baker will continue to appear on the ballot paper as the Liberal candidate, the deadline for nominations having closed, but he has resigned as the party’s candidate and declared his campaign over.

• A key election milestone was reached yesterday with the commencement of pre-poll voting. The Victorian Greens have raised Labor’s ire by disseminating how-to-vote cards at Victorian pre-poll centres which instructed voters to determine their own preference order, in violation of a deal which has seen Labor place the Greens second on Senate preference tickets in every state but Queensland. The Greens have said an administrative error was to blame, and have pulled the tickets from circulation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,592 comments on “Highlights of week three, day two”

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  1. And now for the endgame first unsourced ” labor insiders” in the papers yesterday criticising Rudd. How long till this thing blows ?

  4. “Labor insiders” briefing journalists from News Ltd on their polling and “delusional” strategies.

    Yeah, sure.

    I believe in the Easter Bunny, too.

  6. The Aussie cricket selectors must believe in the Easter Bunny given their fantastic belief that Shane Watson will save the day batting at 3 in the fifth test.

  7. [feeney
    Posted Wednesday, August 21, 2013 at 6:25 am | Permalink

    “Labor insiders” briefing journalists from News Ltd on their polling and “delusional” strategies.

    Yeah, sure.

    I believe in the Easter Bunny, too.]

    “News” someone should take them to court for false advertising.

  10. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Nice work Pru! Good Liberal values.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/goward-under-pressure-as-staff-walk-out-20130820-2s9fh.html
    Ross Gittins bemoans the dumbing down of politics and elections.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/sound-bites-feed-a-hunger-for-policy-20130820-2s94j.html
    The stupidity of Abbott’s “Put the Grrens dead set last” mantra in full view.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/libs-direct-preferences-to-antimuslim-party-20130820-2s9fv.html
    Jacqui Maley’s forlorn hope for a good “debate” tonight.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/dose-of-reality-to-spice-up-tiff-20130820-2s9dj.html
    The Guardian, at least, is right on to the PPL’s hidden sting on retirees.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/20/coalition-paid-parental-leave-tax-credits
    A good coverage of Shorten’s NPC appearance, sans Pyne, at the NPC yesterday.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/shorten-invokes-howards-trust-mantra-20130820-2s8y6.html
    Internal push back on Abbott’s gold plated PPL scheme.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/hostility-rising-abbott-could-be-left-holding-the-baby-20130820-2s9fq.html
    Ron Tandberg on Rudd’s negative campaigning. It’s a funny one!
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    And Ron gives us another one on Abbott’s policy conviction.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/ron-tandberg/20090910-fixc.html

  11. Section 2 . . .

    Alan Moir wants to know where the money’s coming from.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    David Pope on the Egypt situation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    David Rowe on the PPL scheme again.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    Pat Campbell’s view of the debate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html

  15. [After the initial “New Way” theme which didn’t resonate with voters because it was never explained beyond the fact Rudd was back as leader]

    Absolutely reminiscent of the complaints about JG in 2010. Different leader, same strategists??

    Atkins is usually a pretty fair commentator, so even if the article is only half right, it’s not a good look for Labor.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/party-games-labor8217s-campaign-bus-is-careering-out-of-control-as-the-campaign-hits-the-halfway-mark/story-fnihsr9v-1226700946895

  16. And from the Land of the Free –

    Tim Fischer’s call to Aussies to boycott visiting the US because if its gun culture gets a run.
    http://americablog.com/2013/08/3-oklahoma-teens-kill-aussie-baseball-player-for-the-fun-of-it.html
    Yes, gun culture.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/20/blurred-lines-no-not-the-song-video-games-that-promote-guns-like-the-one-used-in-newtown-massacre/
    Chris Christie putting church before state.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/20/hypocrite-news-christie-does-it-again/
    Just what is it that deives these Repugs?
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/20/u-s-forefathers-put-down-your-ipads-and-turn-over-in-your-graves/
    This week’s religion vs rights upchuch round up.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/19/the-week-in-upchucks-please-justices-no-blank-check-for-public-prayer/

  19. Anything written in the OO about this election is. “High brow” version of the lies and deceit in the Murdoch tabloids like the Daily ToiletPaper.

    The “ALP insiders” are fictional, surprised that William wastes his commentary on regurgitating.

    And the Daily ToiletPaper has descended into the UK chapter inspired gutter of trawling to find the actress who,appears in the ALP ads, and publishing her name, photos, suburb, web details and activities, and the ages of her children.

  20. Newsltd is getting desperate and predictable , just asked yesterday how long it would take

    i gave 2 days , but it only took overnight

    when Abbott is in trouble , out comes the un-named labor sources fromn newsltd to help thier puppet

  21. sprocket_
    Posted Wednesday, August 21, 2013 at 7:12 am | PERMALINK

    And the Daily ToiletPaper has descended into the UK chapter inspired gutter of trawling to find the actress who,appears in the ALP ads, and publishing her name, photos, suburb, web details and activities, and the ages of her children.
    ————-

    Still no sign of tom watson in Australia

  23. [“Labor insiders” briefing journalists from News Ltd on their polling and “delusional” strategies.

    Yeah, sure.

    I believe in the Easter Bunny, too.

    “News” someone should take them to court for false advertising.]

    They are doing nothing different to what any of the political parties are doing in their advertising.

    Rather than false advertising they should be called to account for not having the written and authorised by (insert News journo name) for the liberal party at the end of each article.

  24. EdwardstJohn

    If Abbott gets defeated again this election this is going to make the liberal party forget about 1993 in a big way

  25. Here ESJ, pass it on.

    My ex-girlfriend has a dildo named after you. She says its thick and pointless. Should she try becoming a stand up comedian? #AskBolt

  27. [And the Daily ToiletPaper has descended into the UK chapter inspired gutter of trawling to find the actress who,appears in the ALP ads, and publishing her name, photos, suburb, web details and activities, and the ages of her children.]

    that is absolute crap and close to stalking and intimidation. hope someone returns the favour and posts similar details of the editor and journos address, car rego photos etc

  29. I looked at news ltd online papers what ashame the
    courier make is gone so far right

    reading the election time line one
    would presume

    the DEVIL if there was one was writing there page

    karma to the lot of them

  31. MR SINJUN
    \\thats how we pronounce the name where I come

    is part of the above

    \
    the polls are still even and you are brain washing people

    like your newsltd master

    and gloy I know u are lib

  34. Morning all.

    While the polling isn’t necessarily showing it, and you get the senst both parties are gaming each other by their chatter to the media, the ‘feel’ of this election is one of a wipe out for Labor.

    There don’t seem to be baseball bats, more the quiet acceptance that the government must be changed and so it will be. Nobody I’ve encountered is even talking about the election, which makes this election the first ever for me.

    Normally people have something to say about the parties, the leaders, anything! It’s very strange. Have others found this?

  35. [Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 8m
    Election betting: Some money back to Labor – into $7.50 from $8.50: Coalition $1.08.]

    For those who get off on this stuff.

  36. sprocket_

    Posted Wednesday, August 21, 2013 at 7:12 am | Permalink

    Anything written in the OO about this election is. “High brow” version of the lies and deceit in the Murdoch tabloids like the Daily ToiletPaper.

    The “ALP insiders” are fictional, surprised that William wastes his commentary on

    =====================================================

    so do the alp think we should be not using this blog, ?

    IF I HAD A BLOG THE NEWS LD WOULD BE BANNED
    sPROCKET HELP EVERY TIME I TWEET certain peeps lose MY ACCOUNT WHAT CAN I DO

    IS THERE A WAY I CAN GET YOUR EMAIL
    ADDRESS

    MAY BE THE PEOPLE AT THE PUB WILL GIVE IT TO YOU

  37. Morning all

    Apparently Inge Slipper was on the Project last night

    [@PeterSlipperMP Good luck Peter. Inge was awesome on The Project tonight. Bit of nervous laughing on the panel when she mentioned #ashbygate]

  39. [Normally people have something to say about the parties, the leaders, anything! It’s very strange. Have others found this?]

    same fess, little interest

    i think it is due to the quality of the leaders and the media coverage.

  40. confessions

    When I reflect back on the last election. It was a frenzy by comparison.

    At the moment, it feels like a Mexican standoff.

    I did say yesterday, that both parties were waiting at 20 paces with their smears

  44. [“I’ve failed to get the project – LNG – to James Price Point,” the Premier said. “I’ve failed to create the thousands of jobs for West Australians. I’ve failed to create the opportunity for WA industry.

    “And most important I have failed the Aboriginal people.

    “They placed their trust in me, and I have let them down.”]

    So says Colin Barnett about the failed gas hub project. He still manages to take a swipe a Woodside, conveniently forgetting that it was govt EPA assessment processes which the courts found were so compromised by vested interests when it should’ve been an independent process.

    Barnett says nothing about trying to improve those processes so it doesn’t happen again.

  46. castle, victoria:

    I reckon it’s because for 3 years we’ve had what has felt like an election campaign and people are sick of it and just want it over.

  49. [Tony Abbott has publicly slapped down colleagues who remain critical of his expensive paid parental leave scheme, saying they have been “slow to adjust” to his proposed reform.

    The Opposition Leader said his $5.5 billion-a-year scheme, which would give mothers up to $75,000 for six months leave, was aimed at making women “first-class citizens”.

    Many Liberals are privately fretting about the cost and sustainability of the scheme which is only part-funded by a 1.5 per cent levy on big business, and some Nationals MPs are warning they will cross the floor unless stay-at-home mums are recognised.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/18584212/abbott-urges-doubters-to-back-leave-scheme/

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