Newspoll: 54-46 to Liberal in Robertson and Dobell

A Newspoll survey reported in The Australian finds Labor in big trouble in two central coast New South Wales marginals, including the seat of Craig Thomson.

No sign yet of a sample size (UPDATE: It turns out to be a modest 505, with a margin of error approaching 4.5%), but The Australian reports a weekend Newspoll survey of the neighbouring Labor marginals of Robertson and Dobell on the New South Wales central coast points to a combined swing to the Liberals of 7%, more than enough to account for the respective margins of 1.0% and 5.1%. On the primary vote, Labor is on 35% (compared with 43.0% at the 2010 election) and the Coalition is on 50% (41.9%). No detail is provided for other parties and candidates, but evidently Craig Thomson is unlikely to trouble the scoreboard much in his bid to retain Dobell as an independent (UPDATE: The poll has the Greens at 8%, compared with 8.8% in 2010, and others at 7%, compared with 6.3%). On two-party preferred, the Coalition leads 54-46 (53.0-47.0 to Labor in 2010).

The poll also finds the leaders’ personal ratings to be markedly different than the rest of the country, with Kevin Rudd on 39% approval and 54% disapproval compared with 53% and 41% for Tony Abbott, and Abbott leading 47-41 on preferred prime minister. In the national survey conducted on the weekend, Rudd was on 39% and 48% disapproval comapred with 38% and 52% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 46-37 as preferred prime minister.

UPDATE: Now newcomer automated pollster shows a diabolical result for Labor in Lindsay, conducted on Tuesday night from a big sample of 1038. Liberal candidate Fiona Scott’s primary vote is put at no less than 60%, up 17% on 2010, with Labor member David Bradbury on 32%, down 13%. The Guardian quotes the pollster saying a question about how respondents voted in 2010 aligned with the actual result – I will assume this took into account the tendency of poll respondents to over-report having voted for the winner. I am a little more puzzled by the claimed margin of error of 3.7%, which should be more like 3% given the published sample size.

UPDATE 2: Now the Financial Review has a JWS Research automated poll of 568 respondents in Forde with remarkable figures on every front: LNP member Bert van Manen leading Peter Beattie 54% to 33% on the primary vote and 60-40 on two-party preferred, for a swing of 8.4%. As low as van Manen’s national profile may be, the poll gives him a 49% approval rating against 19% disapproval, with Peter Beattie on 35% and 51%. Kevin Rudd’s net approval rating is minus 18% against minus 1% for Tony Abbott. This is one of seven electorate-level JWS Research polls for which results will appear in tomorrow’s Financial Review.

UPDATE 3: Another automated phone poll for Forde, this time from Lonergan in The Guardian, and it’s just as bad for Labor as the JWS Research result. Bert van Manen leads 56% to 34% on the primary vote, with the Greens at just 4% compared with 12% at the 2010 election. While no two-party preferred figure is provided, it would obviously be very similar to JWS Research’s 60-40. The poll has 40% saying Peter Beattie has made them less likely to vote Labor against on 22% for more likely. As with the Lindsay poll, the sample was very large: 1,160.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,396 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Liberal in Robertson and Dobell”

Comments Page 4 of 28
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  1. [DellaBosca said the Singleton funded “independents” Cricker Bracken in Dobell and Gosford Mayor Lawrie McKinna in Roberston were the wild card, and had not been included in the NewsPoll. He said McKinna in particular could well make the final 2 on preferences and get in.]

    I don’t know if you have noticed, but being an Indi is toxic at the moment.

    They’ve got no chance. Only Bob Katter who gave Gillard the finger and Wilkie who later gave Gillard the finger will get in… Australians won’t risk another Oakeshotte and Windsor conjob on them.

  2. An independent report released today has found that ditching the carbon price in Australia will hit investment in the renewable energy sector—and almost certainly lead to an increase in electricity prices.

    The report also found that reversing a carbon pricing scheme would deliver uncertainty to an industry that has already adapted to the change.

    ‘Not pricing carbon, which has largely been accounted for by all of the major players in the electricity and oil and gas sectors, would be hugely disruptive,’ he said.

    ‘For the renewable energy developers they’re very uncertain about the future and that’s why they’re not investing in big projects right now.’

  4. Socrates@31

    I finally heard the details of Rudd’s special economic zone in NT. Not a good idea. Move on. Stick to local basics, not weird stuff. Go back to Henry for reforms, do not dream them up on the run. It looks desperate.

    Off early, have a good day all.

    I reached the same conclusion. It’s a shocker. 🙁

  5. [An independent report] by….???

    “Independent reports” always seem to be a dime a dozen these days and always to further the cause of whatever group is paying for them.

  6. Sean Tisme
    Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 9:31 am | PERMALINK

    . Only Bob Katter who gave Gillard the finger and Wilkie who later gave Gillard the finger will get in…

    ————-

    also gave abbott the finger

  7. Really, in the interests of honesty, surely the ALP should change its name to the stupid losers party. We have had 5 plus years of ALP ‘rule’ and the publicly funded broadcaster is still a useless disgrace.

    And Labor supporters have the audacity to complain!!

    It is what happens when you have a party that has abandoned its world view, is ashamed of social democracy and thinks that every bit of garbage that comes from the USA or the financial sector cannot be questioned.

    And seems to choose candidates that are politically clueless educated tea drinking vicars or incompetent union hacks.

    The things they have in common apart from political incompetence, is the total lack of a national vision, defence of Australian values, and a cringing apologetic attitude.

    Surely Murdoch’s Party has it won due to Labor cowardice. I doubt that there is enough substance in the ALP to even mount a comeback. The ALP MPs will be an unknown number of visionless servers waiting for political mistakes by the Murdoch’s Government.

    I am in Scotland and trying to work out how to stay, with no rights to UK passport. One of the events at the fringe was “why Australia is fucked” but I missed it. Damn.

    Trying to find a Aus Commission to vote.

  9. Just heard part of a debate between Shorten and Robb on 3aw and Mitchell – surprisingly – was putting a lot of pressure on Robb as to why they won’t release their costings NOW.

  10. bemused

    I am of the view that the NT economic zone meetooism by Rudd is based is on a seat by seat campaign. Labor is looking at gaining votes in the NT because of it.

  11. Swamprat
    Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 9:36 am | PERMALINK
    Really, in the interests of honesty, surely the ALP should change its name to the stupid losers party. We have had 5 plus years of ALP ‘rule’ and the publicly funded broadcaster is still a useless disgrace.

    ————————————-

    I will agree with you about the way labor had let the media get away with it

    There are still labor supporters still protecting the media and media influence opinon polls

  13. I can’t believe the in grates have turned on Admiral Bradbury.After all he has gone through.Remember how he was going to tattoo his loyalty to PMJG. The poor feller must have had to undergo laser surgery when he declared his undying love for PMKR.
    Still after his patrol boat performance he is the kind of warrior Colonel Puddinface would want beside him when he goes outside the wire.

  15. Sean Tisme

    Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 9:33 am | Permalink

    [An independent report] by….???

    “Independent reports” always seem to be a dime a dozen these days and always to further the cause of whatever group is paying for them.
    ——————————————————–

    Bret Harper, the Director of Research at advisory firm RepuTex

    Only a “dime a dozen” when they don’t produce information that suits your purpose.

    If they suit your purpose they are the up there with the Bible

  19. We all know why Abbott/Hockey won’t release their election costings.

    They have a big hole and no suppository big enough to fill it

  20. I’d like to see a clip of Abbott running away from press question to some Benny Hill music.

    And back to the ABC: what a shocker. Where’s your retraction, you amateurs?

  25. guytaur
    Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 9:42 am | PERMALINK
    Cut Albo off and goes to Abbott

    ———————

    lol ,

  27. “@profsarahj: If no appeal for asylum seekers as mooted by LNP, … suspect there’d be Qs re constitutional separation of powers. #auscon”

  30. Confessions, I agree. The Rightists break all parliamentary conventions, and are totally ruthless. The ALP is the more conservative.

    It has to develop a coherent plan and implement it ruthlessly. I doubt any of the current mob have the ability or passion. Certainly neither Gillard nor Rudd stand for much apart from “good” government and most punters think they are hopeless, lol.

    How can so many over paid people be so incompetent?

    It leaves me totally perplexed.

  31. “@phbarratt: Please bear in mind, everyone, access to the Courts is a right enshrined in the Refugee Convention. Why Howard put gulag in remote places.”

  32. mikehilliard
    Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 9:46 am | PERMALINK
    Sh*t, thought Albo was on & got ABBOTT!

    —————-

    Me too

  33. “@genericleftist: I’ve always been able to see how, by some perspective, refugee policy is about saving lives. Not today. Abbott uses refugees as firewood.”

  34. The press were ready for Abbott so the ALP campaign should have known he was about to speak and put Albo on hold. Yes it will probably be repeated later, but you usually get more airtime if you are live, as we saw with Christine Milne, who was on for nearly an hour the other day.

  35. How can so many over paid people be so incompetent?
    —————————————————-

    Could say the same for the banks, remember the GFC Swamp?

  36. I don’t think it’s such a wonderful strategy to be harping on the Opposition money stuff all the time. It must get boring to people who just want to know what will affect their own families.

  39. School kids bonus was paid in July. Remember comments by Abbott and Co that parents could not be trusted to spend the money wisely. Come on Labor. What about an advert on that!!!

  40. [It has to develop a coherent plan and implement it ruthlessly.]

    The first step is to ruthlessly defend its achievements in govt instead of caving into the Abbott lies about their policies. This means standing up to every coalition attempt to undo its achievements. They won’t be block legislation in the House, but will be able to side with the Greens to do so in the Senate.

  45. mikeh

    The concentration on ‘when are you going to bring out your costings?’ = I don’t think it’s as effective as Labor hopes.

    Have to go shopping now and brave the gales. Hooroo.

  48. Swamprat
    [Really, in the interests of honesty, surely the ALP should change its name to the stupid losers party. We have had 5 plus years of ALP ‘rule’ and the publicly funded broadcaster is still a useless disgrace.]

    I also agree with that much.

    Hopefully the ALP have finally learned their lesson about the futility of crawling up the arse of the media moguls, and put media reform at the very top of their agenda list.

    (In fairness, the NBN proper is a major component of that reform, if they can get it done. But they also need to do more, and do it more explicitly, make the case.)

  49. lizzie

    Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    I don’t think it’s such a wonderful strategy to be harping on the Opposition money stuff all the time. It must get boring to people who just want to know what will affect their own families.
    ———————————————————-

    Cut the super co-contribution to 3.7 million low paid workers
    Cut the SchoolKids bonus Sack 12,000 public Servants
    Delay increasing superannuation co-contribution

    Power prices will not fall. The companies decide price not Abbott.

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