No sign yet of a sample size (UPDATE: It turns out to be a modest 505, with a margin of error approaching 4.5%), but The Australian reports a weekend Newspoll survey of the neighbouring Labor marginals of Robertson and Dobell on the New South Wales central coast points to a combined swing to the Liberals of 7%, more than enough to account for the respective margins of 1.0% and 5.1%. On the primary vote, Labor is on 35% (compared with 43.0% at the 2010 election) and the Coalition is on 50% (41.9%). No detail is provided for other parties and candidates, but evidently Craig Thomson is unlikely to trouble the scoreboard much in his bid to retain Dobell as an independent (UPDATE: The poll has the Greens at 8%, compared with 8.8% in 2010, and others at 7%, compared with 6.3%). On two-party preferred, the Coalition leads 54-46 (53.0-47.0 to Labor in 2010).
The poll also finds the leaders’ personal ratings to be markedly different than the rest of the country, with Kevin Rudd on 39% approval and 54% disapproval compared with 53% and 41% for Tony Abbott, and Abbott leading 47-41 on preferred prime minister. In the national survey conducted on the weekend, Rudd was on 39% and 48% disapproval comapred with 38% and 52% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 46-37 as preferred prime minister.
UPDATE: Now newcomer automated pollster shows a diabolical result for Labor in Lindsay, conducted on Tuesday night from a big sample of 1038. Liberal candidate Fiona Scott’s primary vote is put at no less than 60%, up 17% on 2010, with Labor member David Bradbury on 32%, down 13%. The Guardian quotes the pollster saying a question about how respondents voted in 2010 aligned with the actual result – I will assume this took into account the tendency of poll respondents to over-report having voted for the winner. I am a little more puzzled by the claimed margin of error of 3.7%, which should be more like 3% given the published sample size.
UPDATE 2: Now the Financial Review has a JWS Research automated poll of 568 respondents in Forde with remarkable figures on every front: LNP member Bert van Manen leading Peter Beattie 54% to 33% on the primary vote and 60-40 on two-party preferred, for a swing of 8.4%. As low as van Manen’s national profile may be, the poll gives him a 49% approval rating against 19% disapproval, with Peter Beattie on 35% and 51%. Kevin Rudd’s net approval rating is minus 18% against minus 1% for Tony Abbott. This is one of seven electorate-level JWS Research polls for which results will appear in tomorrow’s Financial Review.
UPDATE 3: Another automated phone poll for Forde, this time from Lonergan in The Guardian, and it’s just as bad for Labor as the JWS Research result. Bert van Manen leads 56% to 34% on the primary vote, with the Greens at just 4% compared with 12% at the 2010 election. While no two-party preferred figure is provided, it would obviously be very similar to JWS Research’s 60-40. The poll has 40% saying Peter Beattie has made them less likely to vote Labor against on 22% for more likely. As with the Lindsay poll, the sample was very large: 1,160.
lizzie
So Ruawake was on the money about Katter Preferencing Labor
I keep saying I want to see more of him, and it seems other women feel the same. 😉
[Federal Home Affairs Minister Jason Clare’s government may be behind in the polls, but he can find some comfort in topping another poll.
Women’s magazine Cleo has put him on top of its “sexiest men in parliament list”.
He has even got the approval of a political rival.
“I think Jason is the Rob Lowe of politics, you know West Wing, the Rob Lowe,” deputy opposition leader Julie Bishop said on the Nine Network, during a debate with Mr Clare.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/18522818/jason-clare-tops-sexiest-politician-list/
😀
confessions
Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 8:48 am | Permalink
Speaking of Bob Ellis…
—————————-
Bob’s questions seem reasonable enough to me.
[ I have confirmed: Labor and Katter have done a preference deal in Qld: ALP will preference Katter above the Greens in Qld.]
I think anyone could’ve told Sabra Lane that!
I’ve only caught a few news breaks on ABC TV/radio over the past week or so, but what has struck me has been the blatant bias in its coverage.
Every one – EVERY ONE – has led with either a positive LNP story or a negative ALP one. Even on the days when I know from my twitter stream there has been an Abbott stuff-up, it seems to be have been ignored, glossed over, or turned around to criticise the ALP.
Now, I’m not sure if this is indicative of how things have been running on the ABC, but if so, isn’t it in breach of the campaign coverage rules? Or does “equal time” only mean “time” in terms of the amount of coverage and not tenor of said coverage?
how very strange about he above
my contacts in western Sydney say different
but then???
============================================================
http://turnleft2013.wordpress.com/
every one should read this site
about abbotts unleashing on us yes u and I and libeals
who seem to think their man is god
and kind tony
u will cop what we cop , and so will your families
vote lberal and feel ashamed.
the goss HERE IS NOW NO 4 LANE HIGHWAY
TWO DAYS AGO HE ACCOUNCED THAT POLICY NO ITS
CUTT I KID YOU NOT
HOW CAN A MAN RUN A COUNTRY AS BIG AS AUSTRALIA
SO WHO IS THE NEXT PLACE TO LOSE THEIR
POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT FROM TWO DAYS AGO
WHAT JOKE
THEY ARE
http://turnleft2013.wordpress.com/
confessions
Oops I misunderstood the tweet by Sabra Lane. I thought Katter was to preference the ALP ahead of the LNP.
My bad.
Abbott & Hunt at Linfox this morning.
Abbott raved all the usual about the carbon TAX and then said that Linfox had reduced its emissions (by ~ 400 thousands -can’t remember the figure) but NOT because of the carbon tax. They reduced emissions because they WANTED to, and that’s what would happen under Direct Action.
At that point, pigs flew over Melbourne, Abbott’s nose grew a foot longer.
(And for the fifth time, apparently, Abbott refused to appear on Faine’s show after promising he would “when next in Mebourne”)
chinda63
That is how the ABC has operated for ages now.
victoria:
KAP was always going to preference Labor ahead of the Greens.
confessions
See my post at 107
chinda63 – there is a long history of PB concerns over the ABC bias against Labor. Most here have now put them in the same stable as the Mordor press.
say
Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 8:58 am | Permalink
how very strange about he above
my contacts in western Sydney say different
but then???
============================================================
http://turnleft2013.wordpress.com/
every one should read this site
about abbotts unleashing on us yes u and I and libeals
who seem to think their man is god
and kind tony
u will cop what we cop , and so will your families
vote lberal and feel ashamed.
the goss HERE IS NOW NO 4 LANE HIGHWAY
TWO DAYS AGO HE ACCOUNCED THAT POLICY NO ITS
CUTT I KID YOU NOT
HOW CAN A MAN RUN A COUNTRY AS BIG AS AUSTRALIA
SO WHO IS THE NEXT PLACE TO LOSE THEIR
POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT FROM TWO DAYS AGO
WHAT JOKE
THEY ARE
========================================
THE SITE LINKED BWLOW IS A GOOD SITE TO READ TO SEE WHAT U WOULD LET YOUR FAMILY IN FOR
VOTE LIBERAL AND FEE ASHAMED I SAY
==============================================================================================================================
http://turnleft2013.wordpress.com/
<1 2 3
What’s in it for Katter to do a preference deal? KAP will get more votes, but not more seats. Maybe he just wants the credibility of a higher count for future elections, or more relevance in seat outcomes.
[“I think Jason is the Rob Lowe of politics, you know West Wing, the Rob Lowe,” deputy opposition leader Julie Bishop said on the Nine Network, during a debate with Mr Clare.]
I doubt Jason Clare will return the compliment.
Leadershit:
[Former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie has again denied his bid to return to politics is about becoming the federal Labor leader.
Speaking at a candidates’ forum in Beenleigh on Friday, Mr Beattie was asked if his decision to contest the seat of Forde was genuinely about serving the community.
Since his high-profile unveiling as the ALP candidate last week, Mr Beattie has been dogged by speculation that his interests go beyond the boundaries of the south Brisbane electorate.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/18522904/im-not-eyeing-labor-leadership-beattie/
The difference this time is that Labor MPs are the ones backgrounding the media.
victoria:
Sorry, we cross-posted.
How Anna Bligh was hit by the GFC.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/blaming-bligh-but-beattie-beat-his-retreat-before-the-bubble-burst/story-fnihsr9v-1226698094415?sv=3d40c5a2f7f076bf1e85994af5fb3086#.Ug1dhaMAjP4.twitter
from my says link@113
Australian democracy is the chickens voting which fox will guard the hen-house.
Peter Costello being interviewed by Lisa Wilkinson. Says the opposition’s reluctance to release costings is symptomatic of oppositions more generally.
Wait until the election campaign in 2016 when the former Liberal Treasurer will be wheeled out to dump on Labor for not releasing its costings.
Wilkinson asks about raising the GST. Says the states would have much to gain from a raise in the GST, therefore why isn’t it beyond the realms of possibility that they’d agree to it?
Is Wilkinson the first interviewer to click with this?
THE ABC
MARK SCOTT SHOULD BE CALLED IN OVER SUCH THNGS\\BUT \CARE TAKER GOVE
so it want happen
WTTE ONE SEAT AND MAKING IT SOUND UNIVERSAL
now that’s a word here I want use,
Watching Abbott cough and splutter on 7.30 last night, I bet all mothers will be withdrawing their babies from potential Abbott kisses. And perhaps female candidates will, too. 🙁
Wilkinson is smart.
That’s why Abbott chooses to be interviewed by that numbskull Liberal stooge Stefanovic.
so the abc SOUNDS LIKE ITS NOT LIVING UP TO ITS CHARTER
TO ME,
are these people proud of where they now work
and what they have don’t to our once
trusty abc
now not the place to go to
The reports on this poll are really weird. Yahoo is repeating the ABC report word for word. Including the incorrect information. So are both just reprints of a press release? Or is Yahoo plagiarising the ABC?
http://au.news.yahoo.com/election/a/-/article/18521816/labor-losing-ground-in-key-nsw-marginals-pm-kevin-rudds-popularity-nosediving-poll/
well how can the abc say that
newspoll was last
week
so are the abc in the brainwashing department to
The “Direct Carbon” Plan makes my blood boil. Here’s Lenore Taylor
[As Abbott’s anti-carbon tax campaign took hold, any chance of Direct Action transforming into something more workable before the next election evaporated and all the big questions remained unanswered.
Now, supremely confident ahead of polling day 2013, Abbott airily dismisses the latest modelling by saying only that he “simply doesn’t accept it”. He doesn’t feel any need to answer the sole question on its content at his morning press conference. (A far more pressing issue apparently was the Coalition leader’s radio discussion with singer Katy Perry.)]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/15/tony-abbott-climate-plan-maths?CMP=twt_gu
[That’s why Abbott chooses to be interviewed by that numbskull Liberal stooge Stefanovic.]
Yep. Isn’t it indicative of the state of our media when the host of a fluff and bubble breakfast TV show can upstage the hosts of supposed serious current affairs programs like Leigh Sales on 730?
I know this will not be of much interest to any here but my self proclaimed swing voter of a brother in law, who until now has said he will be voting Liberal, has now decided to vote Labor. He can’t stand KRudd (fair enough) but has decided Abbott just doesn’t have what it takes to be PM.
2013 Margie and I know the pressure that every Australian – that each one of you – is under.
We’re not crying poor but we run a household with power bills, rates, health and education costs to be paid all the time.
Margie runs a community-based occasional care centre which has to live within its means just like every small business and every family.
2012 My values are the product of an Australian life, a real life much like yours, with Margie, raising three daughters in suburban Sydney, paying a mortgage, worrying about bills, trying to be a good neighbour and a good citizen
2011 My three children are still in the education system and Margie, my wife, works in community-based childcare so my family knows something of the financial pressures on nearly every Australian household.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/16/trolls-journalism-editors
How editors have redefined ‘trolling’.
just sent albo a email with the top heading
and ask him to ‘
what ever re the abc
I would suppose their media people would but
not on twitter at the moment but I would presume
the abc will get a pasting
my say
so are the abc in the brainwashing department to
————————————————
Unfortunately yes.
mikeh:
I have several Facebook friends who have sharpened their focus as the campaign has gone on. Where they were once scathing of Labor, they have since decided (or at least from their anti Abbott posts and photos) to vote ALP.
Just on Dobell and Roberston, John DellaBosca (who lives there) was asked about it this morning. He thought Robertson was difficult, but Dobell was more likely with Emma McBride being an excellent candidate, well known and liked.
DellaBosca said the Singleton funded “independents” Cricker Bracken in Dobell and Gosford Mayor Lawrie McKinna in Roberston were the wild card, and had not been included in the NewsPoll. He said McKinna in particular could well make the final 2 on preferences and get in.
Abbott has said any change to the GST would require the Labor held states to vote for the change.
What a deception. It would require the Liberal held states also.
By this using this deceptive language he blames the Labor states
lizzie:
The Guardian article on direct action came out yesterday and I put some questions to Greg Hunt about it on twitter.
Today is the first day in 2 weeks that he hasn’t had a daily carbon ‘tax’ question for the government. Coincidence?
[Sorry, should have said Dobell is clearly a special case because of Thompson]
What are you on about, poor Craig Thomson was setup in some grand conspiracy and the public actually feel sorry for him… or so the Poll Bludger Labor Brain Trust has had us to believe.
Hows his lawyer going getting his money from Sam Dastayari by the way?
mikehilliard
Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 9:18 am | Permalink
I know this will not be of much interest to any here but my self proclaimed swing voter of a brother in law, who until now has said he will be voting Liberal, has now decided to vote Labor. He can’t stand KRudd (fair enough) but has decided Abbott just doesn’t have what it takes to be PM.
===========================================================
I am hearing that every where
wonder what booth the above results come from lol
=============================
some people may not realise that some voting booths are better for some areas for example the one I hand out how to vote for is big labor voting area
in the electorate no name no letting libs no any anything
o becareful what u discuss here to
down in another area far from here is liberal leaning.
see what I mean
so small pockets of areas matter ?????
confessions
Well done.
In the presser (sic) this morning (otherwise known as repetitive slagging of Labor) Hunt simply repeated Abbott’s words. It’s like watching wind-up puppets.
[That’s why Abbott chooses to be interviewed by that numbskull Liberal stooge Stefanovic.
]
Karl Stefanovic also had a $100,000 bridging loan from Alan Jones to buy a house. Which would have come with no strings attached 🙂
sprocket
The kind of strings Alan Jones might attach to a loan have me shuddering. 😮
DellaBosca said the Singleton funded “independents” Cricker Bracken in Dobell and Gosford Mayor Lawrie McKinna in Roberston were the wild card, and had not been included in the NewsPoll. He said McKinna in particular could well make the final 2 on preferences and get in.
================================================================
but we seen the above from sprocket
SO MR BOWE DID U BY ANY CHANCE KNOW ABOUT THE ABOVE
IF SO WHY PUT IT
just wondering
Rudd is losing the election. Stuff you Ruddistas supporting the whiteanting and destabilisation of a great, reforming Labor govt! Made this blog unreadable too!
But Thomas Pain eating the shit sandwich of the NT soundbite—priceless!
Mind you, nobody pays attention to a poll of fewer than 1000 samples.
mike and connie
ive also heard the above very much so from queensland
and then we add sprocket.
so the best thing is to either
go away do what u want
put good information here
and for get the liberal gossip
ALL SO POLLS
If Newspoll and others are going to conduct polls in individual seats why not one in the bellwether seat of Eden Monaro? That’s what I would like to see.
RE: Lenore Taylor on Abbott’s direct action plan.
Why when we are 3 weeks out from an election is Lenore moaning about the fact that Abbott won’t answer questions. The media who handed him this election on a platter now have the audacity to cry foul.