No sign yet of a sample size (UPDATE: It turns out to be a modest 505, with a margin of error approaching 4.5%), but The Australian reports a weekend Newspoll survey of the neighbouring Labor marginals of Robertson and Dobell on the New South Wales central coast points to a combined swing to the Liberals of 7%, more than enough to account for the respective margins of 1.0% and 5.1%. On the primary vote, Labor is on 35% (compared with 43.0% at the 2010 election) and the Coalition is on 50% (41.9%). No detail is provided for other parties and candidates, but evidently Craig Thomson is unlikely to trouble the scoreboard much in his bid to retain Dobell as an independent (UPDATE: The poll has the Greens at 8%, compared with 8.8% in 2010, and others at 7%, compared with 6.3%). On two-party preferred, the Coalition leads 54-46 (53.0-47.0 to Labor in 2010).
The poll also finds the leaders’ personal ratings to be markedly different than the rest of the country, with Kevin Rudd on 39% approval and 54% disapproval compared with 53% and 41% for Tony Abbott, and Abbott leading 47-41 on preferred prime minister. In the national survey conducted on the weekend, Rudd was on 39% and 48% disapproval comapred with 38% and 52% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 46-37 as preferred prime minister.
UPDATE: Now newcomer automated pollster shows a diabolical result for Labor in Lindsay, conducted on Tuesday night from a big sample of 1038. Liberal candidate Fiona Scott’s primary vote is put at no less than 60%, up 17% on 2010, with Labor member David Bradbury on 32%, down 13%. The Guardian quotes the pollster saying a question about how respondents voted in 2010 aligned with the actual result – I will assume this took into account the tendency of poll respondents to over-report having voted for the winner. I am a little more puzzled by the claimed margin of error of 3.7%, which should be more like 3% given the published sample size.
UPDATE 2: Now the Financial Review has a JWS Research automated poll of 568 respondents in Forde with remarkable figures on every front: LNP member Bert van Manen leading Peter Beattie 54% to 33% on the primary vote and 60-40 on two-party preferred, for a swing of 8.4%. As low as van Manen’s national profile may be, the poll gives him a 49% approval rating against 19% disapproval, with Peter Beattie on 35% and 51%. Kevin Rudd’s net approval rating is minus 18% against minus 1% for Tony Abbott. This is one of seven electorate-level JWS Research polls for which results will appear in tomorrow’s Financial Review.
UPDATE 3: Another automated phone poll for Forde, this time from Lonergan in The Guardian, and it’s just as bad for Labor as the JWS Research result. Bert van Manen leads 56% to 34% on the primary vote, with the Greens at just 4% compared with 12% at the 2010 election. While no two-party preferred figure is provided, it would obviously be very similar to JWS Research’s 60-40. The poll has 40% saying Peter Beattie has made them less likely to vote Labor against on 22% for more likely. As with the Lindsay poll, the sample was very large: 1,160.
rummel
Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 7:34 am | PERMALINK
lol
you made my morning.
———————-
You are voting for labor , glad to have made your morning
[6/7 seats in qld
1/2 seats in wa]
so your banking on the so called QLD red neck bogans, that team labor have been shitting on since the QLD state election to save Fed Labor…. good plan!
Mrs rummel must have shown him the error of his ways.
rummel
Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 7:38 am | PERMALINK
so your banking on the so called QLD red neck bogans, that team labor have been shitting on since the QLD state election to save Fed Labor…. good plan!
———————————
QLD was the state which made the election close in 2010
we will see if QLD are smart or bunch of liars like the coalition
morning all
What a dreedfully desperate situation in Egypt.
[This little black duck
Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 7:40 am | PERMALINK
Mrs rummel must have shown him the error of his ways.]
she constantly tries.
[victoria
Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 7:45 am | PERMALINK
morning all
What a dreedfully desperate situation in Egypt.]
they are certainly racking up a body count. We are so lucky in Australia, even if under Abbott.
one bloody question … one bloody question.
Sloganman the Gutless one, at LinFox talking about the Carbon Tax. Reporter ask how much Direct Action is going to cost the business they are at and he The Gutless one scarpers.
It was priceless the look on the faces of the pack as the cameras panned away from running Abbott and Hunt
jeffemu
When did this happen?
rummel
What would be truly hiliarious is if the election produces a 50/50 result again. And what would be even more hiliarious is if the indies that will determine who forms govt will do so on the proviso that Abbott is not the leader but Turnbull!! Now I would pay to see that!!
Jeffemy, if Aussies want to elect gutless sloganman as PM
It’s their loss. He should, at least, be put under some scrutiny first.
Oops hilarious
They just had a live presser covered by ABC 24. The thing lasted for about 2 – 3 minutes.
Gutless just scarpered. Turned and walked off.
The reporters were just left looking at one another like, “what the F#*k was that” moment.
lol jeffemu
jeffemu
Really? What gives?
The News 24 resident Friday only Bimbo has just now crossed over to Mel in the Canberra Office.
Mel just brushed it off by saying that Tone was not going to take questions this early in the morning.
He is saving himself for later in the day to take questions from Reporters apparently … well according to Melissa.
The Gutless Grub just cut and run in anyone was watching.
I wonder if the alp see an opportunity here re Abbott’s walk off just now and direct action cost questions.
Probably not.
Too obvious.
jeffemu
So Abbott gets asked one question about direct action and he scarpers. Obviously needed to get worded up by Credlin
Ask Sloganman whether he supports Newmans position on opening national parks to mining.
Well spotted Norwester. I’m so shocked to hear Dobell may fall! Not.
I think there’s a moment or two of the LNP sweating to come yet.
[The reporters were just left looking at one another like, “what the F#*k was that” moment.]
Show us the footage ABC.
IMO he just “used” the conference to set the pattern for today. Apparently it is the 3rd anniversery of PMJG saying there will not be a carbon tax under … blah blah blah.
He then went on to mention how the great big new tax will effect the truckin’ business.
Hunt who was there then broke wind and spoke for 20 seconds or so.
That’s when the reporter asked Sloganman about Direct Action. He just did the double timed exit stage right.
Even last night on the 7.30 Report Abbott was calling a “budget emergency”.
And to address this “budget emergency” he is going to;
Cut business tax by 1.5%
Repeal the MRRT
Repeal the Carbon Price legislation
Remove the 15% tax on super earnings over $100,000
Undo the FBT changes
Remove the 0.5% bank charge on savings accounts (something the banks are choosing to pass on to customers)
Six items that provide revenue.
To make up this shortfall in revenue he will;
Cut the super co-contribution to 3.7 million low paid workers
Cut the SchoolKids bonus
Sack 12,000 public Servants
Cut red tape/Cut green tape (these save business money not sure about Govt savings)
Delay increasing superannuation co-contribution
Plus adopt the cost saving measures that were announced by Labor.
Those who can least afford it will be paying the most to produce the savings Abbott needs to fund his reductions in revenue from those can more afford to pay.
[I finally heard the details of Rudd’s I finally heard the details of Rudd’s special economic zone in NT. Not a good idea. Move on. Stick to local basics, not weird stuff. Go back to Henry for reforms, do not dream them up on the run. It looks desperate.special economic zone in NT. Not a good idea. Move on. Stick to local basics, not weird stuff. Go back to Henry for reforms, do not dream them up on the run. It looks desperate.]
Actually not a smart comment, people need to think outside the narrow band of what they ‘want’ to be right and what is needed.
Rudd picks up on an earlier Abbott theme but makes much more specific statements regarding the NT.
Can guarantee hewill pick up a shitload of votes for this idea, especially among small business owners who would have certainly heard the 30% less tax tit
Abbott keeps repeating the “budget in emergency” line but keeps spending up big.
A road here, a road there, an airport here,sports centres etc.
If he was truthful about ‘budget emergency’ I would have thought he’d be saying.
“there will be no money until we are out of this ‘budget emergency’ situation.”
ML would be a proud Lib this morning with their AS announcements this morning.
Gary
Yes indeed. ML spends every post carping on about Labor’s asylum seeker policy, but is mute on the fibs. Hypocrisy is thy name
Hi all.
Dobell? Newspoo must have been pushed to find a seat in Sydney that would give them the results they wanted. Also the surf has been excellent. 😀
The ABC is saying that this is part of a national poll that has the LNP 54-46. Is that right? Or is the ABC lying?
“On a two-party preferred basis nationally, Labor’s support is down seven points to 46 per cent and the Coalition’s is up seven to 54 per cent.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-16/newspoll-shows-rudd-losing-ground/4890914
Gary
In any event, The govt has been sending back many Sri Lankans over time as they were found not to be genuine refugees
Morning all.
So Bob Ellis was wrong about the polling he reckons he’d seen in Dobell.
How unsurprisement.
liyana Williams summary above.
[On a two-party preferred basis nationally, Labor’s support is down seven points to 46 per cent and the Coalition’s is up seven to 54 per cent.]
Can’t you idiots at the ABC get anything right these days?
confessions
Actually I am hearing that Dobell and Robertson are much better for Labor than these polls have shown
liyana
[The ABC is saying that this is part of a national poll that has the LNP 54-46. Is that right? Or is the ABC lying?]
It’s hard to believe that the ABC has scooped Ghost on a Newspoll.
TP
I saw Richard Denniss explaining this morning that splitting the tax rates between north and south Australia and spending more on northern infrastructure will lead to even more crazy imbalance for the south, while the north becomes a tax haven as businesses can all have their head office in (eg) Darwin.
This is a crazy idea which the Gillard govt correctly slammed. Policy on the run without any regard for consequences.
Seriously, are the ABC calling that Newspoo poll a national poll? fecking idiots.
lizzie
Rudd has done metooism on fhe Northern Plan merely to counteract the fibs on their policy.
victoria:
The MoE is around 4% FWIW so hopefully we’ll get bigger samples in future marginal seat polling.
Lefty E – or, more to the point, why is the ABC providing a leg-up for Murdoch’s anti-ALP election propaganda?
Thanks for clearing that up ..I just woke up to that and was a bit surprised…
chinda63
The ABC give a leg up to Murdoch on a daily basis
ABC are letting Murdoch press get a ‘leg over’ more than a leg up
Speaking of Bob Ellis….
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/ellis-newspoll-antics-escalate-in-dobell-and-robertson/
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/15/western-sydney-poll-swing-coalition
“Guardian Lonergan poll shows ‘sex appeal’ candidate Fiona Scott on course for 60% of primary vote in litmus-test seat”
Bob Ellis believes the Dobell and Robertson polling was published now because of Peter Slipper’s announcement to run in Fisher yesterday.
Have to say I’m not seeing the connection there.
victoria
If the Abbott govt brings this in, it will be a disaster too. Too much me-too-ism is feeding into the belief that the two parties are “just the same”. I want people to see an advantage in voting Labor.
excuse my ignorance, but who are Lonergan?
lizzie
I can see Abbott pursuing this, but Labor not so much
I think polling Dobell would be about as useful as polling Sydney.
[Sabra Lane @SabraLane 8m
I have confirmed: Labor and Katter have done a preference deal in Qld: ALP will preference Katter above the Greens in Qld.]