The Poll Bludger’s federal election guide is now live and accessible from the link on the sidebar. Featured are profiles of all 150 House of Representatives electorates, in one shape or another. Comprehensive profiles are featured for Labor seats up to around 12% in margin and Coalition seats up to around 3%. Much of the content will be familiar to those of you who have been following Seat of the Week over the past year, although ongoing political tumult has required a considerable amount of revision. Things remain to be fleshed out for some of the safe Labor seats and a lot of the non-marginal Coalition ones, but at the very least each page comes equipped with candidate lists and graphics showing census results and voting history.
A review of BludgerTrack is in order while I’m here, as we now have a full week of campaign polling after yesterday’s slightly delayed publication of Essential Reserch. It’s clear that the evenly matched polling which followed the return of Kevin Rudd, and which was starting to look alarmingly sticky from a Coalition perspective, has unpeeled over the past fortnight. Close observation suggests this has not entirely been a phenomenon of the election campaign, the Coalition having already pulled ahead over the weekend of an election date announcement which came on the Sunday, after much of the polling had already been conducted. Aggregating the polling over the period has the Coalition already a shade over 51% on two-party preferred, to which they added perhaps a little under 1% over the first week of the campaign. The Greens seem to have made a neglible dividend out of the government’s harder line, their vote being stuck in the 8% to 9% range on BludgerTrack since the beginning of June.
Looking at the progress of state breakdowns over that time, the outstanding change is a 4% swing away from Labor in all-important Queensland, consistent with the notion of a “sugar hit” that got added impetus from a home-state feel-good factor, and is now fading across the board. After showing as many as six gains for Labor in Queensland in the weeks after Rudd’s return, Labor’s yield on the BludgerTrack projection is now at zero, and briefly fell into the negative. So it’s not hard to imagine that Labor strategy meetings last week might have been spent contemplating ways to hold back the Queensland tide, and easy to understand why the name of Peter Beattie might have come up. The most recent data points suggest this may indeed have improved Labor’s position by as much as 3%, but it will be a bit longer before this shows up on BludgerTrack, if indeed it doesn’t prove illusory.
Elsewhere, Labor support looks to have come off to the tune of 1%-2% in New South Wales and South Australia and perhaps slightly less in Victoria. The interesting exception is Western Australia, where there has essentially been no change on a result which has Labor well in the hunt to poach two Liberal seats. The main political story out of the west over this period has been hostile reaction to a post-election state budget highlighted the a bungled cut to an excessively popular solar panel subsidy scheme. This has made the Barnett government the target of public attacks from federal MPs who have been open in their concern about federal electoral impacts. It may perhaps be worth noting that Western Australia is the only state without a daily News Limited tabloid.
A Newspoll result on best party to handle asylum seekers has been the most interesting item of attitudinal polling to emerge over the past week, since a point of comparison is available from a few weeks ago rather than the pre-history of the Gillard era. Whereas the Coalition fell on this measure from from 47% to 33% after the government announced its Papua New Guinea solution, the latest poll has it back up to 42%. Labor has nonetheless maintained its gain from the previous poll, having progressed from 20% to 26% to 27%, with the slack coming from “another party” and “don’t know”. Even so, the re-establishment of a solid double-digit lead to the Coalition is interesting, and a challenge to the notion that the recent poll move away from Labor has entirely been down to a “fading sugar hit”.
UPDATE (Morgan phone poll): Morgan has a small-sample phone poll of 569 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday night which headlines results on personal ratings, but if you burrow into the detail there’s a wildly off-trend result on voting intention with the Coalition leading 57-43 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 52% for the Coalition, 31% for Labor and 9% for the Greens. Reflecting what was obviously a bad sample for Labor, the poll has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister narrowing to 46-43 from 52-36 at the last such poll a month ago. Rudd is down five on approval to 40% and up nine on disapproval to 49%, while Abbott is up four to 42% and down six to 48%.
Aren’t local hospital boards another layer of bureaucracy? Who appoints them? Won’t they just be jobs for the boys? What are the guarantees that these local worthies would do a better job than the current process?
[Greg Jericho @GrogsGamut 39s
Geez. Have never seen someone so desperate to not say anything. #abc730]
He is toast. He is just putting off the inevitable, sorry we cannot do what he hoped to moment.
[“@KarenMMiddleton: Leigh Sales says Tony Abbott & Kevin Rudd cld come in to @abc730 & debate. May I say they are also welcome to @sbsnews to do same. #anytime”]
Middleton is simply pathetic. I can’t imagine any serious politician wasting their time talking to her.
[Don’t agree changing the GST legislation would be simple.]
The only problems are the Senate and the voters.
rummel – Abbott nailed that interview
I missed that one, I was watching Leigh on 7.30.
davidwh
If he cannot get through Senate he could go this route
@StephenLongABC: Obfuscation from @TonyAbbottMHR on GST. Fed Gov could propose change; with limited revenue sources, states might well agree. @abc730
Rua yep and that would make it very difficult to get away with. If the Senate don’t get you the voters certainly will.
So without looking, I am going to guess that Abbott either embarrassed himself completely and just lost the election or hit it out of the park and looked prime ministerial, depending on which poster is giving their opinion.
Likely scenario: Abbott did alright. But it won’t matter because it’s the 7:30 Report and swing voters mostly don’t watch it.
@Steve777/2301
Yes, abit like the Tony Abbott announcement in Tasmania.
He wasnt as bumbling and incompetent as that last time when Sales tore him a fresh one, no.
Still cant tell us which of the services we enjoy as Australian citizens will be slashed though.
GST? What was it that Keating said about a state premier and a bucket of money?
“@GeorgeBludger: Lulz! “@davrosz: Abbott’s coughing explained – he clearly swallowed a suppository. #ABC730””
I’m biased (in case no-one’s noticed or cares) but I get the feeling that Rudd announcements now have about as much impact as Gillard’s did towards her final demise, whereas Teflon Tony can say or do anything and it’s ignored. I remember how Gillard’s rating always went up when she was out of the country. Maybe Rudd should hop back on the 747 for a while and broadcast images of himself from wherever but no sound. (Pls don’t reveal this strategy to Hawker ‘cos he’s looking for any salvation at present).
PS Rudd out to $7.20 again on betfair. That’s his equal “best” but he could eclipse it soon.
Guytaur yes you can go the state route which is what Abbott has been saying.
MH # 1395 – in saying Abbott “nailed” that interview I thing Abbott was speaking (coarse) teenspeak and meant “f.cked”
rummell
[Abbott nailed that interview, you could see knew it at the end too!]
Geez rummell, I’m impressed. Didn’t know you did sarcasm.
Mmmmm…..the big FBT ad has been segmented into smaller ads.
If you blink you’d miss them.
[Rua yep and that would make it very difficult to get away with. If the Senate don’t get you the voters certainly will]
The problem is that the GST should have been introduced at 12.5% on everything and should now be hitting 17-18% removing a raft of crap taxes. But our adversarial system makes sensible change impossible.
Can’t wait for the 7:30 transcript.
Rua I don’t believe it but I agree although I think 15% would do it but no government would be game to try.
Steve
[Aren’t local hospital boards another layer of bureaucracy?]
Yes.
[ Who appoints them?]
The government
[ Won’t they just be jobs for the boys?]
Yes
[ What are the guarantees that these local worthies would do a better job than the current process?]
None
[Guytaur yes you can go the state route which is what Abbott has been saying.]
Same problems. But of course the States are going to be in favour of a GST increase.
MICK77 2313
Gee you biased I would never have noticed that without you telling me :devil: Poor deluded man?? you are!
ruawake, PUP voters may well give their second preferences to KAP but what matters is the relative placements of Lab and LNP. I’m guessing the majority would place Lib above Lab.
David Speers on Sky rooly enhancing the integrity…..NOT of his program having as one of the guest “experts” one Santo Santoro. FFS
Mari 2323
[Poor deluded man?? you are!]
I take it from this that you don’t share my view of how the race is going. “Poor” I can understand, but “deluded”?? I’ve obviously missed how well everything is going for the ALP.
When Abbott kept saying that a change to the GST would need the approval of the Labor states why didn’t Leigh point out that by May next year there will be no state Labor governments.
Mick
For Labor its gone from massive wipeout as seen in Queensland to Too Close to Call. For Labor that is going well.
[When Abbott kept saying that a change to the GST would need the approval of the Labor states why didn’t Leigh point out that by May next year there will be no state Labor governments.]
Probably because, even if probable, it is still begging the question.
mari
There is a new book out with huge raps on it. It’s set in Iceland and based on a true story. The author is from Adelaide.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Burial-Rites-Hannah-Kent/dp/1447233166/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1376561981&sr=8-1&keywords=burial+rites
Guytaur
[For Labor that is going well.]
Yes, everything in life is relative.
Like the states wouldn’t agree to the GST being raised. Anything to give them more money would be supported.
Leigh should also have belled Abbotts nonsense about the states having to approve the gst change.
They don’t and she showed a lack of research there.
Besides, if she could think on her feet she should have responded, “so if the states do want to increase the GST you will do so?”.
Abbott was poor again, waffling, evasive and spluttering all the way through. Still, he didn’t trip over his own tongue, so with the low expectation people have of him; that’s probably a pass.
Costello told Parliament: “No change to the rate will be implemented without the unanimous support of all the states and territories and both houses of the Commonwealth Parliament. The bill clearly provides this lock-in mechanism.”
But it has force only until a new law is introduced removing it.
19th century British constitutional lawyer AV Dicey put it: “Parliament has the right to make or unmake any law whatever”.
[Like the states wouldn’t agree to the GST being raised. Anything to give them more money would be supported.]
It will come down to party line. However, after it’s done, you won’t see many tears from any premiers about the extra revenue.
DIOGENES
Thanks not released until 29th I was gong to down load it onto the kindle part of my tablet but will do it when it is released. Such a fascinating place Iceland
Mick
Abbott is losing the election. Winners do not try and distract through gaffes.
Hola, bludgers.
I’m going to have a go at linking to an article. No idea if it will work.
If it fails, the article is in The Guardian today under Lenore Taylor’s byline and it’s about how scrapping the Clean Energy Fund will save zilch, nothing, as it’s now self sustaining.
Brilliant.
Nup, tried, can’t do it. Check it our though
[I’m biased (in case no-one’s noticed or cares) but I get the feeling that Rudd announcements now have about as much impact as Gillard’s did towards her final demise]
I am feeling the same way. Ch7 Riley’s segment in the news tonight was full of ridicule for the Labor announcement on NT business investment.
[Like the states wouldn’t agree to the GST being raised. Anything to give them more money would be supported.]
Yep. Let’s face it, if Abbott’s government decided to increase the GST it will happen.
Clauses 32‑36 of the Intergovernmental Agreement on the Reform of Commonwealth‑State Financial Relations set out the administration arrangements applying to the GST.
Any change to the rate or the base of the GST must be unanimously agreed by the Australian government and all the States.
Purely administrative changes only require the majority support of the Australian government and the States.
HSO:
Long time no see! Yes, Lenore Taylor has reported on Climate Institute modelling. It’s about time the media got serious about the waste of taxpayer’s funds Direct Action is.
@MissBaileyWoof: Sophie is such a big fan of local industry, she sits in a Mercedes illegally parked in Melbourne #indivotes http://t.co/SeqyapdWYY
@guytaur/2343
All the liberals are the same, Andrew Laming parked in a disabled car park earlier this year if I remember.
So meanwhile, in a stella moment in my virtual ALP campaign Tasmanian Labor Premier Lara Giddings called out Tony Abbott when she said…’to those Tasmanians who feel inclined to look favourably on Tony Abbott’s pledges today may I just remind you that Mr Abbott told us you can’t accept as gospel what he says unless it’s carefully scripted and written down and signed by him. I suppose we can expect the documentation from Mr Abbott’s office any day now’
It was a stunning performance by the fiesty Giddings and plays effectivesly into yje strategy the ALP have been running since day one of the campaign to cavst doubt on everything Abbott says within minutes of him saying it.
Oh if only.
Dream on Rosemour.
Intergovernmental Agreement on the Reform of Commonwealth
Part 3 – Administration of the GST
Management of the GST Rate
31. After the introduction of the GST, a proposal to vary the 10 per cent rate of the GST will require: a. the unanimous support of the State and Territory Governments;
b. the endorsement by the Commonwealth Government of the day; and
c. the passage of relevant legislation by both Houses of the Commonwealth Parliament.
From July 2001, changes to the GST base of an administrative nature (as defined in Appendix E) would require the majority support of the Commonwealth, the States and the Territories.
E5. From July 2001, changes of an administrative nature as defined in E3 will require the majority support of the Commonwealth, States and Territories.
That snarky one liner wouldn’t work, Rosemour. Abbott would just deny what he said and it would turn into a bout of “he said/she said” negative politics, which he will look like the victim of.
Ironic isn’t it, Tasmania, the state with the worst education outcomes of any stae or territory in the commonwealth will ensure Abbott becomes Prime minister…
The dumb leading the dumber.
Liberals are without honor or intellect ..or leader .. that will not be forgotten or forgiven
[Ironic isn’t it, Tasmania, the state with the worst education outcomes of any stae or territory in the commonwealth will ensure Abbott becomes Prime minister…]
He will probably be PM with or without Tasmania, TBH.