The Poll Bludger’s federal election guide is now live and accessible from the link on the sidebar. Featured are profiles of all 150 House of Representatives electorates, in one shape or another. Comprehensive profiles are featured for Labor seats up to around 12% in margin and Coalition seats up to around 3%. Much of the content will be familiar to those of you who have been following Seat of the Week over the past year, although ongoing political tumult has required a considerable amount of revision. Things remain to be fleshed out for some of the safe Labor seats and a lot of the non-marginal Coalition ones, but at the very least each page comes equipped with candidate lists and graphics showing census results and voting history.
A review of BludgerTrack is in order while I’m here, as we now have a full week of campaign polling after yesterday’s slightly delayed publication of Essential Reserch. It’s clear that the evenly matched polling which followed the return of Kevin Rudd, and which was starting to look alarmingly sticky from a Coalition perspective, has unpeeled over the past fortnight. Close observation suggests this has not entirely been a phenomenon of the election campaign, the Coalition having already pulled ahead over the weekend of an election date announcement which came on the Sunday, after much of the polling had already been conducted. Aggregating the polling over the period has the Coalition already a shade over 51% on two-party preferred, to which they added perhaps a little under 1% over the first week of the campaign. The Greens seem to have made a neglible dividend out of the government’s harder line, their vote being stuck in the 8% to 9% range on BludgerTrack since the beginning of June.
Looking at the progress of state breakdowns over that time, the outstanding change is a 4% swing away from Labor in all-important Queensland, consistent with the notion of a “sugar hit” that got added impetus from a home-state feel-good factor, and is now fading across the board. After showing as many as six gains for Labor in Queensland in the weeks after Rudd’s return, Labor’s yield on the BludgerTrack projection is now at zero, and briefly fell into the negative. So it’s not hard to imagine that Labor strategy meetings last week might have been spent contemplating ways to hold back the Queensland tide, and easy to understand why the name of Peter Beattie might have come up. The most recent data points suggest this may indeed have improved Labor’s position by as much as 3%, but it will be a bit longer before this shows up on BludgerTrack, if indeed it doesn’t prove illusory.
Elsewhere, Labor support looks to have come off to the tune of 1%-2% in New South Wales and South Australia and perhaps slightly less in Victoria. The interesting exception is Western Australia, where there has essentially been no change on a result which has Labor well in the hunt to poach two Liberal seats. The main political story out of the west over this period has been hostile reaction to a post-election state budget highlighted the a bungled cut to an excessively popular solar panel subsidy scheme. This has made the Barnett government the target of public attacks from federal MPs who have been open in their concern about federal electoral impacts. It may perhaps be worth noting that Western Australia is the only state without a daily News Limited tabloid.
A Newspoll result on best party to handle asylum seekers has been the most interesting item of attitudinal polling to emerge over the past week, since a point of comparison is available from a few weeks ago rather than the pre-history of the Gillard era. Whereas the Coalition fell on this measure from from 47% to 33% after the government announced its Papua New Guinea solution, the latest poll has it back up to 42%. Labor has nonetheless maintained its gain from the previous poll, having progressed from 20% to 26% to 27%, with the slack coming from “another party” and “don’t know”. Even so, the re-establishment of a solid double-digit lead to the Coalition is interesting, and a challenge to the notion that the recent poll move away from Labor has entirely been down to a “fading sugar hit”.
UPDATE (Morgan phone poll): Morgan has a small-sample phone poll of 569 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday night which headlines results on personal ratings, but if you burrow into the detail there’s a wildly off-trend result on voting intention with the Coalition leading 57-43 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 52% for the Coalition, 31% for Labor and 9% for the Greens. Reflecting what was obviously a bad sample for Labor, the poll has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister narrowing to 46-43 from 52-36 at the last such poll a month ago. Rudd is down five on approval to 40% and up nine on disapproval to 49%, while Abbott is up four to 42% and down six to 48%.
@BBS/2199
I thought that was the point of being able to do it in the NT, is to declare it as a Special Economic Zone and lowering the Tax.
bbs
The Territories are not States if you missed it, this is why Kevin Andrews could overturn Euthanasia laws in the NT.
The Feds can set any tax rate they like for the Territories, nothing a constitutional lawyer can do about it.
NT Intervention – what a mess Brough made of that
Tampa
Children Overboard lie – demonising asylum seekers
Workchoices
David Hicks
WMD Lie taking Aust to war
Marriage Amendment Act 2004
Lindsay pamphlet scandal – now the incident involving a Pyne volunteer and Turnbull people covering up Greens posters – nothing learnt
AWB oil for wheat supporting Saddam
Patricks Waterfront – men in balaclavas/set the dogs on Australian workers
Reith phone card – $50,000 and nothing done
Non – core promises
Kerosene Baths for the Elderly
Yes we remember that most of the Liberal front bench were there before Howard lost his seat and the election
bbp:
That’s rich criticising the govt for having holes in its announcements!
The Rudd garbage today was about winning Solomon, especially with Natasha Griggs having a shocker in the driving stakes this week.
[If Abbott gets in Labor’s stocks will go sky high in a short space of time.]
Meh. That’s what lots of people here said about Barnett and Newman.
Didn’t happen there.
blackburnpseph
Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 6:28 pm | Permalink
thoughts on the racist WA Liberals?
The 457 visa holders are a soft touch because they can’t vote – are the NSW and ACT governments racist as well?
——————————————————-
When you examine the rhetoric around the proposed changes to the employer applications for 457 visas that such a move is racist according to Abbott and Liberals all over, then ‘yes’, based on the standard set by the Liberals it is racist
Zoidlord
It can definitely not be done in a ‘state’ as that would be discriminatory under the constitution – favouring one over another. The NT is not a state – and the ACT is not either – so there would be no reason for the ACT not to be a Special Economic Zone as well.
The argument in this case is that somewhere in the NT gets an advantage from the federal government that is not available in Kununurra, Camooweal or Cowra for that matter.
[The Feds can set any tax rate they like for the Territories, nothing a constitutional lawyer can do about it.]
As per my post above, the states they may be able to argue that they are being discriminated against by the commonwealth. If it such a great idea, why has no-one come up with it before?
2202
The NT should have a higher rates of alcohol tax compared to the rest of Australia because thy drink, on average, about twice as much.
[The Rudd garbage today was about winning Solomon]
Or keeping Lingiari.
Someone help me out here.
Abbott not preferencing Greens. Which seats could this make a difference to and by how much? Leaving aside Bandt, are there any other seats that this could make any real difference to?
[The Rudd garbage today was about winning Solomon
Or keeping Lingiari.]
Or getting Bob Katter on side ..
bbp – If you don’t like the different status of the territories thing then I guess you must be an equal representation sort of guy.
The NT and ACT would each have 6 Senators then.
[Leaving aside Bandt, are there any other seats that this could make any real difference to?]
The only other seats that the Greens might have had a chance in are Grayndler, Sydney and Batman. Grayndler would have been the most likely though the David Feeney preselection kerfuffle might have pissed some ALP voters off in Batman.
I thought Grayndler was next cab of the rank for the Greens, CC, but they certainly haven’t been banging on my door.
Or getting Bob Katter on side ..
And to what purpose? To get Katter to provide his vote in a hung parliament? He didn’t do that last time. Or is there some more subtle calculus going on here with preferences?
And hello again everyone. Been a while.
[bbp – If you don’t like the different status of the territories thing then I guess you must be an equal representation sort of guy.
The NT and ACT would each have 6 Senators then.]
Only original states are entitled to the 12 senators – I can’t recall how many senators the NT was meant to get if they got statehood back whenever.
I actually think it is a travesty that the NT have two Reps seats when it is only actually entitled to one. A bit of a cosy up by the two main parties.
Crispy, I was wondering under what circumstances it could deliver a seat to Labor that would otherwise go to Liberal had the Liberals not decided to de-preference the Greens.
Cud Chewer
Preferences, though after Bob Katters ill judged appearance on the Chaser last night, there might no be so many KAP preferences to go around.
Anyone have a clue about whether Labor can win both seats in NT?
bbp
[Only original states are entitled to the 12 senators]
Yes – it’s totally racist.
[Crispy, I was wondering under what circumstances it could deliver a seat to Labor that would otherwise go to Liberal had the Liberals not decided to de-preference the Greens.]
Grayndler – go to the Liberals ???
[Or getting Bob Katter on side ..]
I think he is already, which is the election story that the media want to ignore.
If KAP and PUP preference each other and KAP puts ALP ahead of LNP that’s a 2-10% gain for the ALP, safe LNP seats will fall over in Qld.
Anyone calling the election now is mad.
@BBS/2213
Interesting that only liberal states are complaining about it (Victoria and WA).
And Abbott complaining about catching up.
It’s a pitty that he’s (Abbott) not catching up on the Broadband.
At least Rudd is linking the NBN to just about everything including Tourism.
Cud I think de-preferencing the the Greens delivers seats to Labor that might otherwise have gone to the Greens. There are no Liberal/Green tussles.
If they are looking at a “food bowl” it is possibly/maybe a look at the number of failures in the North.
The last development around Kununurra most of the land was sold the Chinese because no Aussies would buy
Nielsen would still be polling now for tomorrow night’s release
ABC made a dumb error here:
[Mr Rudd has also pledged an extra $10 million to the NT Government to help expand the Ord River Irrigation Scheme, and to develop 20-year growth plans for key regional centres across the north.]
It’s all too coy and cosy with the major alliance between the LNP and the worlds best avoider of going to court and facing the music when he can simply settle out of court.
If he had a conviction for every time he was named as the defendant he would be the worlds biggest criminal.
You guessed right that would be Rupert.
The coy and cosy is easy when you have Turnbull and his Fraudband being propped up by Murdoch.
Turnbull was given the job of destroying the NBN after a breakfast between Murdoch and Abbott.
Turnbull is out there every other day sprouting lies and bullshit about his Fraudband and nary a question about facts in the Murdoch media, but all the bullshit and lies is always printed to the max.
Now Turnbull is out there spruiking the bullshit that he has been putting forward information about his Fraudband and no one has come out and criticised his Fraudband.
Therefore he says the lack of scrutiny or questions about his Fraudband in the MSM must mean he is right.
He is constantly questioned about his Fraudband but the questioners are told to “fuck off” bu his staffer or he deliberately ignores the technical questions/statements by the technical experts.
One such expert takes him to task virtually every time he makes a claim about his Fraudband.
I don’t understand why someone in the ALP with some good understanding of the technical stuff isn’t calling pressers and hounding him by pointing out his bullshit.
If they don’t want to do that then put some links on their social media to
http://sortius-is-a-geek.com/
Sortius gives a good account of all Turnbulls bullshit and only attacks the bullshit not the man.
The NBN is as big as any other large infrastructure project in Australia and it would be a sad day for all of us if our future entrepreneurs/businesses are denied this FTTH NBN.
When there is so such real news to report why would a newspaper do an analysis of the betting on the election and use it to decide the number of seats each Party will win/lose.
We really are getting into the “fluff’ pieces
For those who missed it.
[The Ord River is a 320 kilometre long river in the Kimberley region of Western Australia.]
So ABC why is Rudd funding the NT Govt to expand a scheme in WA?
[If KAP and PUP preference each other and KAP puts ALP ahead of LNP that’s a 2-10% gain for the ALP, safe LNP seats will fall over in Qld.]
The flaw in your argument is that Palmer would need to preference the ALP as well. As of last weekend, Katter only had 53 endorsed candidates so his impact may not be that great.
[ABC made a dumb error here:]
Yes, when I heard the story on ABC radio my first thought was that the Ord is in WA, not NT.
[So ABC why is Rudd funding the NT Govt to expand a scheme in WA?]
To extend into the NT.
ruawake
Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:06 pm | Permalink
For those who missed it.
The Ord River is a 320 kilometre long river in the Kimberley region of Western Australia.
So ABC why is Rudd funding the NT Govt to expand a scheme in WA?
————————————————–
Perhaps they know something…like the Government is going to implement Katter’s Plan to have a state coast to coast above the 26 parallel encompassing North Qld, NT and North West WA
Ord River/Kununurra – 35 kms from the NT border.
Not much of a stretch in the line to get it around the town
[Tom Anderson @TomAnderson62 8m
The candidates assemble #indivotes forum pic.twitter.com/OWhz39x2xv ]
Not surprisingly, after the backlash she’s copped in the local media, the sitting member has turned up to this forum.
The NT plan is not a policy – it is an ‘objective’ – and not until 2018.. the never never for the never never.
[Natalie Kotsios @NatalieKotsios 10m
Tonight candidates have been given two questions they could prepare for, then there will be questions from audience #indivotes #auspol]
Giving the candidates questions to prepare for was perhaps to even the platform given the sitting member is in attendance. 😀
[The flaw in your argument is that Palmer would need to preference the ALP as well.]
No you missed it entirely. KAP will beat PUP in the seats that matter, they will then get the PUP votes to pass onto the ALP.
Um.. won’t people who vote for PUP be preferencing LIB over LAB?
[The Rudd garbage today was about winning Solomon]
No way!
[Or keeping Lingiari.]
Woah!
[Nova Peris @NovaPeris 2m
Land at Jabiru was returned to the Mirrar people through a Deed of Grant. A Momentous day! #AusPol @manwiththemo pic.twitter.com/h13U3EVVzq ]
[Um.. won’t people who vote for PUP be preferencing LIB over LAB?]
No they will be preferencing KAP over everyone else. So if they get less votes than KAP the votes go where KAP says.
blackburnpseph
Abbott’s got some great objectives.
Just like “we’ll get rid of the carbon tax” – which is now an Emissions Trading Scheme.
OR “we’ll save by repealing the mining tax” – you know the one that’s been criticised for not raising revenue – so where’s the saving ???
The “never never ever” from the bright LNP.
@margokingston1: To participate in Indi forum on now, Sophie in attendance, please use #Indivotes. @TomAnderson62 live tweeting, will report for @NoFibs
Gawd Abbott is on 730Report and being interviewed by Sales rather than Uhlmann.
Wonder if it’s live or whether it was pre-recorded.
The expanded Ord scheme involves using Ord water for irrigation in the Northern Territory.
http://www.landmanager.org.au/category/keywords/ord-river-irrigation-scheme