The Poll Bludger’s federal election guide is now live and accessible from the link on the sidebar. Featured are profiles of all 150 House of Representatives electorates, in one shape or another. Comprehensive profiles are featured for Labor seats up to around 12% in margin and Coalition seats up to around 3%. Much of the content will be familiar to those of you who have been following Seat of the Week over the past year, although ongoing political tumult has required a considerable amount of revision. Things remain to be fleshed out for some of the safe Labor seats and a lot of the non-marginal Coalition ones, but at the very least each page comes equipped with candidate lists and graphics showing census results and voting history.
A review of BludgerTrack is in order while I’m here, as we now have a full week of campaign polling after yesterday’s slightly delayed publication of Essential Reserch. It’s clear that the evenly matched polling which followed the return of Kevin Rudd, and which was starting to look alarmingly sticky from a Coalition perspective, has unpeeled over the past fortnight. Close observation suggests this has not entirely been a phenomenon of the election campaign, the Coalition having already pulled ahead over the weekend of an election date announcement which came on the Sunday, after much of the polling had already been conducted. Aggregating the polling over the period has the Coalition already a shade over 51% on two-party preferred, to which they added perhaps a little under 1% over the first week of the campaign. The Greens seem to have made a neglible dividend out of the government’s harder line, their vote being stuck in the 8% to 9% range on BludgerTrack since the beginning of June.
Looking at the progress of state breakdowns over that time, the outstanding change is a 4% swing away from Labor in all-important Queensland, consistent with the notion of a “sugar hit” that got added impetus from a home-state feel-good factor, and is now fading across the board. After showing as many as six gains for Labor in Queensland in the weeks after Rudd’s return, Labor’s yield on the BludgerTrack projection is now at zero, and briefly fell into the negative. So it’s not hard to imagine that Labor strategy meetings last week might have been spent contemplating ways to hold back the Queensland tide, and easy to understand why the name of Peter Beattie might have come up. The most recent data points suggest this may indeed have improved Labor’s position by as much as 3%, but it will be a bit longer before this shows up on BludgerTrack, if indeed it doesn’t prove illusory.
Elsewhere, Labor support looks to have come off to the tune of 1%-2% in New South Wales and South Australia and perhaps slightly less in Victoria. The interesting exception is Western Australia, where there has essentially been no change on a result which has Labor well in the hunt to poach two Liberal seats. The main political story out of the west over this period has been hostile reaction to a post-election state budget highlighted the a bungled cut to an excessively popular solar panel subsidy scheme. This has made the Barnett government the target of public attacks from federal MPs who have been open in their concern about federal electoral impacts. It may perhaps be worth noting that Western Australia is the only state without a daily News Limited tabloid.
A Newspoll result on best party to handle asylum seekers has been the most interesting item of attitudinal polling to emerge over the past week, since a point of comparison is available from a few weeks ago rather than the pre-history of the Gillard era. Whereas the Coalition fell on this measure from from 47% to 33% after the government announced its Papua New Guinea solution, the latest poll has it back up to 42%. Labor has nonetheless maintained its gain from the previous poll, having progressed from 20% to 26% to 27%, with the slack coming from another party and don’t know. Even so, the re-establishment of a solid double-digit lead to the Coalition is interesting, and a challenge to the notion that the recent poll move away from Labor has entirely been down to a “fading sugar hit”.
UPDATE (Morgan phone poll): Morgan has a small-sample phone poll of 569 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday night which headlines results on personal ratings, but if you burrow into the detail there’s a wildly off-trend result on voting intention with the Coalition leading 57-43 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 52% for the Coalition, 31% for Labor and 9% for the Greens. Reflecting what was obviously a bad sample for Labor, the poll has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister narrowing to 46-43 from 52-36 at the last such poll a month ago. Rudd is down five on approval to 40% and up nine on disapproval to 49%, while Abbott is up four to 42% and down six to 48%.
any thing we say will be twisted
by their spokes person I feel
so may be a tactic to say nothing?
outsider
heard hockey yesterday twisiting the FBT
for all he was worth
repeated and repeated
nothing about log books of course
my say
another glorious day. we still survive, we are in the game, we are the game, and the fouls keep coming.
@AP: BREAKING: Newark, NJ, Mayor Cory Booker wins Democratic primary in special US Senate election
It is hard to believe that Australians could seriously vote for a dill like Abbott. I thought that about Howard to, but he’s a statesman compared to the empty joke that is Tony Abbott.
my say
You are becoming quite a warrior. Keep the bastards honest!
Sean Tisme: ” …we know the Coalition are much better economic managers”.
Wrong. The Coalition opposed stimulus measures when recession loomed. Rudd’s spending (a la Keynes and Ken Henry) prevented massive unemployment by building infrastructure and putting money in people’s pockets. Excellent economic management.
“@ByronBayMango: Tony Abbott reckons he’ll never negotiate with another party. Mmm. That’s why the Nationals do nothing for the bush. #NBN #AUSpol”
guytaur
Bingo!!
@hannah_frank: DPM @AlboMP announces $1m to revitalise Hobart CBD with Labor Candidate for Denison @JaneAustinALP http://t.co/3psJ5ZB9Wk
Abbott saying he won’t form a minority government might just possibly be the biggest mistake he’s made so far. He’s hoping it will scare the undecideds into voting for him. Forget those voting for the Greens, they wouldn’t vote for him if he held a gun to their heads.
The problem is scaring the undecideds could go either way & there are those inclined to vote Green who might now vote labor because that way they get a bit of what they want.
It also looks a lot like it’s my way or the highway which in all honesty it is. I still believe the majority of voters don’t like being told what to do.
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 11m
Biggest surprise in #sexappeal matter is Labor’s decision not to send out Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek, Nicola Roxon et all on it.]
What do bludgers think?
Can anyone explain why Rudd’s star has faded so quickly in Queensland?
Abbott is only using the “dad moment” since his daughter told him of her embarrassment at his sex appeal remark. Obvious switch.
lizzie
Abbott digging hole. Others are right not to get in the way.
lizzie
Why is it a surprise? JG is no longer PM.
lizzie, we think LB is a twit.
Father’s Day Coming Up. Dad moments all day long and a Benny Hill Complete DVD collection from the kids!
I seem to remember Tony saying one of his daughters looked “hot” in Lycra.
Can anyone find the news clip?
Now that’s a dad moment.
Lizzie
Good move, harping on about sexism almost never works in favour of a party. Most people who care wouldn’t vote Liberal anyway.
I think Labor is smart to let Abbott keep digging his own embarrassing hole – and for social media, and increasingly mainstream media, to realise that Abbott the clown is on full display, between his clumsy back-of-head kiss, the suppository of wisdom, and this much more worrying insight into his attitude to women.
Labor can stay above the fray on this.
lizzie
I should add that is precisely why JG would have lost the election handsomely.
I agree with youse lot that Labor is right not to make a meal of it. The Libs (Hockey, Goward, Abbott) are dping that themselves.
And yes, Latika can be a twit.
doing not doping!
Jason Clare made small comment that it’s upto Tony Abbott to deal with it.
Which puts it back on to Abbott.
[Shane Wright
Consumer sentiment up 3.5% .. up by 12.5% among ALP voters, down 1.4% among coalition voters.]
guytaur & Display are right, don’t get in the way of a train wreck & Libtika is a twit. If female Labor MP’s start on Abbott we’ll be back to the handbag brigade crap.
mike hilliard
Precisely. And the handbag hit squad crap works against Labor
victoria
Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 10:57 am | Permalink
Shane Wright
Consumer sentiment up 3.5% .. up by 12.5% among ALP voters, down 1.4% among coalition voters.
—————————————————
being a Coalition voter would be depressing
AA
Toutche’
Gotta go. Being retired I am flat out doing work around Daughters house.
Back later…..Sean…save my spot please
[Naomi Woodley @naomiwoodley 4m
Journos on the Abbott campaign corralled into an empty office in QLD police headquarters. Re-watching the Daily Show to keep our spirits up.]
Having said that, I reckon the “sex appeal/Dad moment” stuff would sit well with a few other clips of Abbott (his bizarre silent response to the “shit happens” revelation), “suppository of wisdom”, his “gospel truth” 730 Report blinder and more.
Later in the campaign, Labor could compile some of these and put the ad onto social media (not free to air TV), with a simple question like: “Do you really want this man to lead Australia?”
@TheAusInstitute: ‘Budget emergency’ or beat up? New TAI infographic http://t.co/Mwtv2qN1by shows Aus debt is modest, among top of OECD. #Election2013 #auspol
[Can anyone explain why Rudd’s star has faded so quickly in Queensland?]
I’m not sure it has Toorak.
Morgan had a positive poll recently.
Bob Brown on 24 now
[Ailie Gallant @SafariPenguin 11m
.@KRuddMP is promising a new ‘Centre for Extreme Weather’ at the BoM, including recruitment of 65 extra forecasters http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/rudd-announces-bom-funding-boost-20130814-2rv34.html … ]
Stick to policy and criticism of their policy. Look professional. If Abbott says something idiotic, let voters decide if they don’t like it or not, stay above it.
And, as has been said on here, don’t go on about sexism – it looks like mudslinging. If Abbott is sexist and voters don’t like it, they will decide for themselves.
[Morgan had a positive poll recently.]
One poll, a Morgan one at that, means sweet F A
lizzie
I am hoping that John Oliver of the daily show will also pick up on Abbott and his suppository and sex appeal moments in the sun
I thought this would be “on the cards”. On Katherine Murphy’s Libe blog: Election 2013: Coalition aims to wipe out Greens with preference choice – politics live blog
[I may disagree with Bob Katter but I’ll hold hands with Bob Katter if it means a better deal for Queensland.
That was Labor’s star candidate for Forde, Peter Beattie, at a press conference a moment ago.
Hold onto your hands people.
This outbreak of bro-ness was in response to questions from journalists about what Labor intends to do about preferences.
The answer to that question? Make decisions seat by seat.
Beattie says no decision has yet been made in Forde.]
Bob Brown sticking the boot into Abbott is big damage.
Brown has lost none of his credibility.
PMKR presser now 24
[Can anyone explain why Rudd’s star has faded so quickly in Queensland?]
Not entirely a surprise. There was evidence he’d become unpopular in Queensland during his first stint as PM.
lizzie
[What do bludgers think?]
Leave the mongrel to sort it all out for himself. Smart tactic by the ALP to let him sink in his own dung heap.
Agree with those that are saying its good that the female ALP MPs aren’t talking about the sex appeal, and now, the Dad moment issue.
I still cant get why abbott hasnt apologised ?
I don’t mind Abbotts dad moment comment. If you asked my daughter, she’d say she understands exactly what that comment meant.
Why has Rudd’s popularity seems to have faded in QLD? Basically electing a government is more important than the initial excitement of having a PM from QLD and with time people are remembering what he was like first time. Labor is fortunate Abbott is the Liberal leader because he is their best asset going into the election.
[Can anyone explain why Rudd’s star has faded so quickly in Queensland?]
As I had warned back when Gillard was PM, and got heckled down and falsely labelled a “Gillard fanboy” for, a lot of Rudd’s appeal was that he was the greener grass on the other side and that, if he came back, a lot of that shine would disappear and he’d have to earn the trust of the people again.
I also said that, while I am no expert on the state, QLD is politically conservative and prior to his removal the first time, it was turning against Rudd. As well as being the greener grass on the other side, QLDers were more angry at the concept of the removal of the QLD based PM, than actually losing Rudd.
My point wasn’t that Rudd would definitely lose or that QLD will hate him (in fact I conceded he might gain a seat or two there) but that a lot of his (at the time) current shine will fade away as soon as he is leader again and he shouldn’t expect to float over the line on the back of his own super popularity. He has to earn their votes.
Hockey is headlining SMH on line because Abbott says he is sexy like George Clooney
The LNP are a comedy act. Really? these people really want to run the country? and the MSM are supporting them? Australian politics is pathetic.
Dio
Abbott was with his 20plus year old daughter talking up a candidate in a seat they are wanting to win in the middle of the campaign. What possessed him to say something so stupid