ReachTEL: 54-46 to LNP in Forde

It’s still early days in the life of Peter Beattie’s bid for federal parliament, but a ReachTEL poll suggests he is taking on a considerable challenge in contesting the marginal LNP seat of Forde.

A snap ReachTEL automated phone poll of Forde, conducted immediately after today’s big news, suggests Peter Beattie has his work cut out for him in overcoming the 1.6% Liberal National Party margin in the southern Brisbane fringe seat. The poll has LNP member Bert van Manen leading Beattie by 48.3% to 39.9% on the primary vote, and by 54-46 on two-party preferred. The sample size on the poll is 725.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

492 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to LNP in Forde”

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  1. Hey

    Post 281

    Is it too much to ask to submit policies for costing?

    And Murdoch wins the election for you like usual.

    Go and get nicked (finger emoticon)

  2. “@vanOnselenP: Say what you will, but having just listened to the Liberal MP in Forde argue his case on TV I can only hope Peter Beattie wins the seat…”

  3. [Lady Miranda Ann Caulfeild Ackermann-Boltt
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 10:22 pm | PERMALINK
    Goodnight people. To the conservatives here, rejoice that we’re on track for victory, as we have been all year. ]

    Let me assist:

    Goodnight people. To the conservatives here, rejoice that we’re on track for victory, as we have been all of the last 3 years.

  9. @Mod Lib/303

    Why do you need to campaign, when you got Murdoch for ya?

    @sprocket_/304

    Hogan Heroes, Clowns, etc?

    This is like High School grade jokes that fail.

  10. [Bingo!]

    Glad you agree that policy issues should remain above the parapet.

    I’ll assume that you’ll do a my say equivalence and flounce off to bed.

    In which case, good night. 🙂

  11. PvO one of the few LNPrs with a sense of humour….

    @vanOnselenP: Say what you will, but having just listened to the Liberal MP in Forde argue his case on TV I can only hope Peter Beattie wins the seat…

  12. Henry @287 no need for figures. But simply I earn a wage paye. The company makes a profit . I personally pay the paye and the co pays tax. It’s not a large business but the overheads are low . So to avoid a profit the figures would have to be fudged or I would have to increase my own wages. I know a few people who tried to avoid tax and they ended up much worse off.

  13. Sensing a serious backlash to Col Allen’s antics on behalf of the 82 year old US citizen

    Should the ALP win the election, the media law reform will be stunning. Lifting the geo block on US content will be just the start.

  15. Didn’t One Nation poll 8% of the vote back in 1998?

    Here are the Greens, about to do worse than Pauline Hanson.

    Don’t worry Greens, there will always be a place for you to protest in Parks around the nation for some reason 🙂

  16. ML good to see you are still confident, and hubris creeping into your comments. Just where we want the Tories…. Even Abbott looked chipper tonight, following Janet Albrechtson’s script suggestions earlier today.

  18. Btw, Hogans Heroes (1965–1971) old TV show during the WWII, that shows the stupidity of the argument that NBN is a THREAT to Media’s business.

    These guys have NO humor.

  19. Does Reachtel ask preferences or are they allocated according to 2010?

    My 2010 allocations give the 54-46 headline TPP result, but if they asked respondents, that means that we have a reasonable idea how the KAP and PUP voters preference (like “others” 60% to LNP).

    If they just allocated according to 2010, then its no surprise it came out the same!!!!

  21. well speak of the devil as they say he now tweeting again

    ====================================================

    van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 13h
    I think we can put Forde in the Labor column now. That said, wasn’t Peter Beattie the guy who led QLD from a AAA to a AA credit rating?

    Retweeted by Bridget O’Flynn

  22. The really big issue for Gillard straight after the 2010 election should have been serious media reform.

    Yeah, Conroy really did well there in that department 😆

  24. This tweet from Leigh Sales earlier this evening:

    @leighsales: Every night, people ask why I interrupt politicians. I do it when they are ignoring the questions, obfuscating or fillibustering #abc730

    Defensive? What feedback did she get from last night’s Rudd interview, I wonder? I didn’t see tonight’s with Beatty so don’t know if she was as negative and interrupting as last night.

  26. Rupert Murdoch doesn’t back right wing parties he in his own words backs “Winners”

    Like Tony Blair for example for over a decade.

    He must now consider Rudd a loser

  29. Tom Watson will get mobbed wherever he goes in Australia. I hope I can get close enough to shake his hand.

    I think Rupe & Co just let out some expletives.

  30. [@Riley7News : 7News ReachTEL poll Forde. Van Manen won seat with margin of 1.6% in 2010. Tonight’s poll has him increasing that by 6.4%. #AusPol]

    It amazes me that people who are employed to know this stuff get it wrong!

    In 2010 he won 51.6% of the TPP and in this poll he has 54% (thats a difference of 2.4% not 6.4% Mark!

  32. Tisme

    That’s bull shit.

    Murdoch tries to get the conservatives elected where he can, otherwise he jumps in the last week to the likely winner.

    It’s like putting a bet on at the 100m mark.

    Still the sooner Murdoch carks it the better for our democracy.

  34. [ Rupert Murdoch doesn’t back right wing parties he in his own words backs “Winners”

    Like Tony Blair for example for over a decade. ]
    yeah how did they go with that Iraq thing and murdochs 20 dollar barrels of oil?

  37. Do we know precisely when the poll was taken? If it was done exclusively within (or near) work hours it may well produce a distorted sample.

  38. ML

    [Do you think it is fair to criticise Gillard for announcing East Timor without having an agreement?]

    I’ve criticised her for far worse than that. Gillard herself acknowledged that her downfall was not all about sexism, but that it was a factor.

    More precisely, attacks on her took on a gendered form amongst those on the right seeking regime change because she was a woman and misogyny is ready to hand.

  39. 334

    Anyone who thinks Tony Blair was not a right wing victory needs reminding he was one of Thatcher`s favourite achievements.

  43. Forde seat betting on Centrebet

    ALP 1:22
    LNP 3.8:1

    Pretty much unchanged from late arvo today.

    So who to believe? Reachtel or Centrebet?

  50. So let me get this straight:

    Rudd was getting beaten by Abbott so they knifed him for Gillard
    Gillard was getting beaten by Abbott so they brought in Carr brushing an Aboriginal candidate aside
    Gillard was getting beaten by Abbott so they knifed her for Rudd
    Rudd was getting beaten by Abbott so they brought in Beattie brushing aside the endorsed local candidate

    …now everyone is getting excited because they are bringing in a Labour MP* from England?

    LOL 🙂

    * I presume this is who you are talking about and not the golfer?

    Please tell me it aint the golfer or my sides are going to burst!!!! :devil:

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