It’s still early days in the life of Peter Beattie’s bid for federal parliament, but a ReachTEL poll suggests he is taking on a considerable challenge in contesting the marginal LNP seat of Forde.
A snap ReachTEL automated phone poll of Forde, conducted immediately after today’s big news, suggests Peter Beattie has his work cut out for him in overcoming the 1.6% Liberal National Party margin in the southern Brisbane fringe seat. The poll has LNP member Bert van Manen leading Beattie by 48.3% to 39.9% on the primary vote, and by 54-46 on two-party preferred. The sample size on the poll is 725.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
My Say A pair of clowns in front of the circus tent. The only thing missing is the ping pong balls…
@Mod Lib/350
Your not serious are you?
I think they took that picture in Sideshow Alley today. You have to put ping pong balls in their mouth to win a prize. Every child wins a prize.
ML
Google Tom Watson. Its that Labour MP.
[guytaur
Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 10:58 pm | PERMALINK
ML
Google Tom Watson. Its that Labour MP]
Abbott must be giggling himself to sleep tonight…..I know I am!
centre
the greens want to whitant labor – they think they are an alternative government. this is folly. they could have been an effective third party however their policies are not clear. the green/left thing does not quite work. and far toooo much emotionalism and knee jerk – the refugee policy is crazy bring down the border welcome the world stuff
Yep, I thought those Centrebet odds would be a bit deflating for some….
ML
Yeah a victim of Murdochs phone hacking in the country is so going to work for Abbott with all that support Murdoch is giving Abbott
ML
[So let me get this straight:
{…} Gillard was getting beaten by Abbott so they brought in Carr brushing an Aboriginal candidate aside]
I left you to get this ‘straight’ but you mangled it. Oh dear …
i dont hate greens or disagree with many policies however and very annoyed they are not up to job they have set themselves – it is a great tragedy – we need another third party simple as that (and it wont come from queensland red necks
Whats the prize? Des Hardman on a stick or skewer… So what did Hardman get for stepping aside. A weekend at Edddie Obeide ‘s ski lodge…
[ Abbott must be giggling himself to sleep tonight…..I know I am! ]
you’ve been painting a rather alarming picture of yourself tonight mod lib
SportsBet have been showing $1.20 Beattie and $4.00 LNP since this morning shortly after the news broke. It’s a logical reaction by the bookies which is why we have to take the ReachTel poll with some caution.
So Forde is $1.22 Labor and $3.30 LNP and it’s a ‘Labor lock, don’t even bother’.
But federally it’s $1.25 LNP and $4.20 Labor but it’s ‘still anyone’s game, the polls will turn’?
I’d suggest all marginal seats are anyone’s game, and the entire election is anyone’s game.
The pre-emptive popping the corks/suicidal tendencies in this place based on random polling is hilarious.
Wait for the Nielsen and Galaxy on the weekend, and the Essential. Then you can start to gauge, good or bad.
i think today went well beattie at least stopped to company tax gazump of lower interest rate – what other tricks in store by labor – enough memes going around to disquiet public – labor deserve resounding victory, a chance to govern without the scourge of msm/abbott litany of lies and bullying
https://twitter.com/GeorgeBludger/status/365452378616504320/photo/1
this may be real George bludger thinks it is
mr bowe will like this
GUYTAUR354
MOD LIB Knows who Tom Watson is the man who almost single handly brought down TA’s and way he is going on MOD LIB’s great supporter old Rupe over phone hacking in UK I am sorry to see CM has been boned by Col A, they were a decent paper for News Ltd. Hope Paul S and Dennis A will be OK?
“Rudd was getting beaten by Abbott so they knifed him for Gillard”
No
“Gillard was getting beaten by Abbott so they brought in Carr brushing an Aboriginal candidate aside”
No
“Gillard was getting beaten by Abbott so they knifed her for Rudd”
Yes
“Rudd was getting beaten by Abbott so they brought in Beattie brushing aside the endorsed local candidate”
No
I suppose one out of four is alright.
if mod lib does not know who tom Watson is she is either in denial or lives under a rock
[you’ve been painting a rather alarming picture of yourself tonight mod lib]
It has been a very funny night for me!
I was reading all these posts with everyone getting all excited about this Tom Watson choppy. I thought to myself- WOW- is there some election game changer about to happen, then I googled who it was and couldn’t stop laughing!
Anyhow, much more than enough mischief for tonight……Good night all!
Check out this d*ckhead. Came here on a boat as a Vietnamese refugee. Now says “stop the boats”.
Denies being hypocrite.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/refugee-candidate-says-stop-the-boats-20130808-2rkib.html
Rossmore
Um yes.
Sportsbet v Reachtel
I think the bloke from Reachtel better go and do another poll 😯
Dawson is the big one to watch in QLD 😉
gloryconsequence
true true 20% still swinging i’d guess – end of next week the jelly starts to set and things get sticky one way or other – i already pop champagne sorry esp now the young libs here have gone for beauty sleep
Beattie may help Labor win Forde, but this fantasy he is going to roll through QLD seats like a Tornado for Labor is a joke.
Tom Watson is a true old school Parliamentarian … He stood up to Murdoch for years, as a result was subject to endless smears and innuendo by News, but ultimately was vindicated thru Levenson. We need more of his ilk on both sides of the political divide.
Hey Mari 🙂
Good to see you about. I have been following your posts with interest.
Yes I know ML knows, but challenge has to be made and I do try and keep it polite.
one thing – the stakes of election have gone up in first week. cant believe turnbull complacently boasts of long time friendship with murdoch – he should be more careful
For goodness sake, this state exceptionism is getting damned tedious. You are sounding like americans.
Living on the other side of an imaginary line on the ground does not give anyone any special super-powerful genetic material. If Qld soil had any magic powers then the rest of the population would have got their fair share by eating Qld bananas.
[New2This
Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 10:43 pm | PERMALINK
You make it sound like 1939 sprocket_ Do you goose step and wear a brown shirt…]
And you make it sound like 1984. George Orwell would see great similarity with his frightening world at the domination Murdoch propaganda has over his sad and deluded employees.
Longman is $1.85 both ways as well Centre so I may have an interesting night.
New2This
Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 10:57 pm | Permalink
My Say A pair of clowns in front of the ci====rcus tent. The only thing missing is the ping pong balls…
========================================================
well u must be new to media or advertising the
courier mail have don’t a great add for labor
smiling happy faces,
they and u just don’t get it
like those adds on tv the ones that are funny and they get your attention
mr beattie will win that seat hands down ,
u know like clowns do a circus every one loves them
Would someone please ban the word “ilk”! It doesn’t mean what you think it means.
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/ilk
New2this,
You are getting boring. Write something interesting, for figs sake.
davidwh
Labor has to win at least 5 seats in QLD do you agree?
Geoffrey – 20% aren’t swinging. That’s too many. I’d suggest 10%. Labor needs 8% of them.
Centre – 5 minimum
why are people her so obsessed with gambling
I thought u read that article about it yesterday
Puff, by the time a banana tree has processed and transported the material of Queensland soil into its fruit, the magic has been extracted by the tree itself.
Mod Lib@370
You really are clueless.
If he gets here (and I havent seen it on his twitter account as confirmed) Watson will have the authority from his position on the Leveson enquiry to remind people here of the criminal tendencies of news corpse.
Should get a few of the undecideds thinking at the very least.
Puff made me think of something
the courier mail cover looks very American to me
now I wonder who thought of that, ?
its so unaustralian
sprocket you are kidding. You want the media censored. 1984 style.
[Wait for the Nielsen and Galaxy on the weekend, and the Essential. Then you can start to gauge, good or bad.]
First sensible thing Ive read here in a few pages.
Labor are a bit under the money at present. Maybe 1- 1.5%. But not much.
Some LNPers here are getting rather over-excited, but on the basis of what? Alleged internal polls (oh please, Ive written better hype myself) and today’s quick Reacharound in Forde, which was clearly useless, since Beattie will PWN that seat in a sunday stroll.
Getting a bit over-confident, are we? Well guess what?
I like that. 🙂
New2this is a reincarnation of someone else who also was best ignored. Its reappearance was a real Grima Wormtongue act.
Centre I worked out six to be sure Centre however that depends on what happens in TAS and WA.
I think Labor are looking ok to pick up 3 or 4 in QLD but it’s anyone’s guess after that. The two northern seats will be crucial.
Henry
I have seen it confirmed. Posted earlier the start of the conversation where Latika Bourke of all people convinced him to come.
where is the venue Tom Watson I speaking at]
dash cannot afford the air fare
When Im sick of the ABC bias I have freedom to switch it off…
[mr beattie will win that seat hands down ,]
Of course he will, Mysay!
Good to see a bit of common sense about.
yes I wonder if the country papers they own will be next
god I hate them
my say
One venue is Press Club. Latika mentioned having to use the Great Hall